# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Reims vs Lyon at 12 March 2021**** Angers vs St Etienne at 13 March 2021**** Marseille vs Brest at 13 March 2021**** Paris SG vs Nantes at 14 March 2021**** Dijon vs Bordeaux at 14 March 2021**** Lens vs Metz at 14 March 2021**** Lorient vs Nice at 14 March 2021**** Nimes vs Montpellier at 14 March 2021**** Rennes vs Strasbourg at 14 March 2021**** Monaco vs Lille at 14 March 2021**

###
Reims vs Lyon at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reims** and **Lyon** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **12 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reims |
6.71 |
2.75 |
21.5 |

Draw |
4.46 |
3.48 |
6.3 |

Lyon |
1.49 |
2.87 |
-32.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
2.55 |
-17.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.10 |
1.64 |
13.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reims, Draw, Under 2.5 (21.5 %, 6.3 %, 13.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reims** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reims** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance** at home**.

Reims,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Nantes |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Montpellier |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Lens |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Lorient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Angers |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Strasbourg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Brest |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Lyon** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lyon** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance** as a guest**.

Lyon,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 29 points, 69.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Rennes |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Feb |
Brest |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Montpellier |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Strasbourg |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Feb |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
St Etienne |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Reims** is **0.052** and for the **Lyon** is **0.496.**

The home dynamic for the **Reims** is **0.092** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Lyon** is **0.385.**

The offensive ability for the **Reims** is **-0.104** and for the **Lyon** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Reims** is **-0.233** and for the **Lyon** is **0.116.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reims** and the red line for guest team, **Lyon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reims |
32% |
37% |
22% |
9% |

Lyon |
36% |
36% |
10% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reims** to score **0.68 ** goals and **Lyon** to score **2.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.72** goals in the game and the guest team **Lyon ** to win by **1.36** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reims** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Lyon** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.18** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.70 |
0-1 |
2.75 |

1 |
4.02 |
2-3 |
2.22 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
5.35 |

3 |
4.85 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.57 |

4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
2.75 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.54 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.64 |

Gg |
2.29 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.35 |

NoG |
1.77 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.72 |
3.17 |
3.17 |

2-3 goals |
2.37 |
3.37 |
3.55 |

4+ goals |
4.56 |
4.92 |
1.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.71 |
2.71 |

Un 1.5 |
2.72 |
3.17 |
3.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.59 |
10.34 |
1.94 |

Un 2.5 |
2.86 |
2.45 |
4.14 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.56 |
4.92 |
1.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.27 |
3.37 |

Goal-Goal |
3.64 |
2.54 |
3.01 |

No Goal |
2.31 |
4.91 |
2.76 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.53 |
7.97 |
2.09 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.23 |
4.91 |
3.23 |

####
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###
Angers vs St Etienne at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Angers** and **St Etienne** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Angers |
2.52 |
2.26 |
4.6 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.58 |
-3.4 |

St Etienne |
2.99 |
3.58 |
-5.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.57 |
-4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.64 |
0.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Angers, Under 2.5 (4.6 %, 0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Angers** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Angers scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Angers** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Angers scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Angers’s performance** at home**.

Angers,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Angers scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Angers was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Metz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Lens |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Strasbourg |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Nice |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Feb |
Reims |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Nimes |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Bordeaux |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**St Etienne** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **St Etienne** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance** as a guest**.

St Etienne,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Lens |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Reims |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Rennes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Metz |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Nice |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Lyon |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Angers** is **-0.111** and for the **St Etienne** is **-0.074.**

The home dynamic for the **Angers** is **-0.232** and the dynamic as a guest for the **St Etienne** is **-0.312.**

The offensive ability for the **Angers** is **-0.07** and for the **St Etienne** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Angers** is **0.207** and for the **St Etienne** is **-0.288.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Angers** and the red line for guest team, **St Etienne. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Angers |
27% |
34% |
27% |
11% |

St Etienne |
40% |
35% |
13% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Angers** to score **1.18 ** goals and **St Etienne** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Angers** to score **1.22 ** goals and **St Etienne** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.18** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.09 |
0-1 |
2.90 |

1 |
4.26 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.77 |
4+ |
5.78 |

3 |
4.61 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.53 |

4 |
8.77 |
Un 1.5 |
2.90 |

5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.56 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.64 |

Gg |
2.30 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.78 |

NoG |
1.77 |
Un 3.5 |
1.21 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.48 |
3.14 |
3.59 |

2-3 goals |
1.93 |
3.98 |
4.34 |

4+ goals |
3.26 |
3.60 |
2.40 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.88 |
3.58 |

Un 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.14 |
3.59 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
8.12 |
2.64 |

Un 2.5 |
2.46 |
2.64 |
4.66 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.26 |
3.60 |
2.40 |

Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.58 |
4.00 |

Goal-Goal |
2.91 |
2.57 |
3.74 |

No Goal |
1.93 |
5.15 |
3.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.52 |
2.70 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
5.15 |
3.73 |

####
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###
Marseille vs Brest at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Marseille** and **Brest** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Marseille |
2.01 |
1.98 |
0.8 |

Draw |
3.36 |
3.91 |
-4.2 |

Brest |
4.12 |
4.18 |
-0.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.21 |
-5.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.83 |
1.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Marseille, Under 2.5 (0.8 %, 1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Marseille** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Marseille** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance** at home**.

Marseille,** at home**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Mar |
Rennes |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Lille |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Lyon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Feb |
Nice |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Bordeaux |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Paris SG |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Lens |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Brest** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brest** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance** as a guest**.

Brest,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Dijon |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Lyon |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Lille |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Strasbourg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Metz |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Reims |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Marseille** is **0.163** and for the **Brest** is **-0.015.**

The home dynamic for the **Marseille** is **0.027** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Brest** is **-0.498.**

The offensive ability for the **Marseille** is **0.243** and for the **Brest** is **0.311.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Marseille** is **-0.207** and for the **Brest** is **-0.631.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Marseille** and the red line for guest team, **Brest. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Marseille |
24% |
26% |
35% |
16% |

Brest |
39% |
36% |
17% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Brest** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Marseille ** to win by **0.62** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Brest** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and the home team **Marseille ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.75 |
0-1 |
3.58 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
4.90 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.15 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.90 |

NoG |
1.87 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.79 |
3.00 |
3.24 |

2-3 goals |
1.60 |
5.63 |
5.03 |

4+ goals |
2.49 |
2.83 |
4.08 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.78 |
4.40 |
4.72 |

Un 1.5 |
2.79 |
3.00 |
3.24 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
6.31 |
4.02 |

Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.96 |
4.34 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.49 |
2.83 |
4.08 |

Un 3.5 |
1.88 |
4.31 |
4.22 |

Goal-Goal |
2.24 |
2.84 |
5.00 |

No Goal |
1.80 |
5.76 |
3.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
5.18 |
4.01 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
5.76 |
3.61 |

####
Go to Top

###
Paris SG vs Nantes at 14 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Paris SG** and **Nantes** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **14 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Paris SG |
1.20 |
1.56 |
-19.2 |

Draw |
6.95 |
4.74 |
6.7 |

Nantes |
14.76 |
6.85 |
7.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.86 |
-8.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.16 |
4.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Nantes, Under 2.5 (6.7 %, 7.8 %, 4.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Paris SG** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Paris SG** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance** at home**.

Paris SG,** at home**, had 10 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 73.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Bordeaux |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Dijon |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Feb |
Monaco |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Nice |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Marseille |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Nimes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Lorient |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Montpellier |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Nantes** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nantes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance** as a guest**.

Nantes,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Reims |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Nimes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Marseille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Angers |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Lille |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Monaco |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Metz |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Paris SG** is **0.652** and for the **Nantes** is **-0.185.**

The home dynamic for the **Paris SG** is **0.568** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Nantes** is **-0.482.**

The offensive ability for the **Paris SG** is **0.591** and for the **Nantes** is **0.704.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Paris SG** is **0.586** and for the **Nantes** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Paris SG** and the red line for guest team, **Nantes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Paris SG |
14% |
26% |
28% |
32% |

Nantes |
46% |
32% |
18% |
4% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Paris SG** to score **2.58 ** goals and **Nantes** to score **0.4 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.98** goals in the game and the home team **Paris SG ** to win by **2.18** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Paris SG** to score **1.78 ** goals and **Nantes** to score **0.81 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the home team **Paris SG ** to win by **0.97** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
4.39 |

1 |
6.10 |
2-3 |
1.91 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
4.02 |

3 |
3.45 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.39 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |

Gg |
2.14 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |

NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |