2021 03 12 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Reims vs Lyon at 12 March 2021
Angers vs St Etienne at 13 March 2021
Marseille vs Brest at 13 March 2021
Paris SG vs Nantes at 14 March 2021
Dijon vs Bordeaux at 14 March 2021
Lens vs Metz at 14 March 2021
Lorient vs Nice at 14 March 2021
Nimes vs Montpellier at 14 March 2021
Rennes vs Strasbourg at 14 March 2021
Monaco vs Lille at 14 March 2021


Reims vs Lyon at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reims and Lyon for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 12 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reims

6.71

2.75

21.5

Draw

4.46

3.48

6.3

Lyon

1.49

2.87

-32.3

Over 2.5

1.77

2.55

-17.3

Under 2.5

2.10

1.64

13.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reims, Draw, Under 2.5 (21.5 %, 6.3 %, 13.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reims in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance at home.
Reims, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Nantes

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Montpellier

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Lens

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Lorient

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Feb

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Jan

Strasbourg

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Brest

H

1

0

W

U

N


Lyon in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lyon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance as a guest.
Lyon, as a guest, had 8 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 29 points, 69.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Rennes

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Marseille

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Brest

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Montpellier

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Strasbourg

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Feb

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Jan

Bordeaux

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

St Etienne

A

5

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Reims is 0.052 and for the Lyon is 0.496.
The home dynamic for the Reims is 0.092 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lyon is 0.385.
The offensive ability for the Reims is -0.104 and for the Lyon is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Reims is -0.233 and for the Lyon is 0.116.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reims and the red line for guest team, Lyon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reims

32%

37%

22%

9%

Lyon

36%

36%

10%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reims to score 0.68 goals and Lyon to score 2.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the guest team Lyon to win by 1.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reims to score 1.08 goals and Lyon to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.70

0-1

2.75

1

4.02

2-3

2.22

2

4.08

4+

5.35

3

4.85

Ov 1.5

1.57

4

8.20

Un 1.5

2.75

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.54

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.64

Gg

2.29

Ov 3.5

5.35

NoG

1.77

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.72

3.17

3.17

2-3 goals

2.37

3.37

3.55

4+ goals

4.56

4.92

1.73

Ov 1.5

2.76

3.71

2.71

Un 1.5

2.72

3.17

3.17

Ov 2.5

2.59

10.34

1.94

Un 2.5

2.86

2.45

4.14

Ov 3.5

4.56

4.92

1.73

Un 3.5

2.52

3.27

3.37

Goal-Goal

3.64

2.54

3.01

No Goal

2.31

4.91

2.76

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.53

7.97

2.09

NG+Un 2.5

2.23

4.91

3.23


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Angers vs St Etienne at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Angers and St Etienne for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Angers

2.52

2.26

4.6

Draw

3.19

3.58

-3.4

St Etienne

2.99

3.58

-5.5

Over 2.5

2.31

2.57

-4.4

Under 2.5

1.65

1.64

0.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Angers, Under 2.5 (4.6 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Angers in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Angers in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Angers’s performance at home.
Angers, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Angers was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Metz

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Lens

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Strasbourg

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Feb

Nantes

H

1

3

L

O

G

07 Feb

Nice

A

0

3

L

O

N

03 Feb

Reims

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Jan

Nimes

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Bordeaux

A

1

2

L

O

G


St Etienne in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, St Etienne in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance as a guest.
St Etienne, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Lens

H

2

3

L

O

G

28 Feb

Lorient

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Reims

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Rennes

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Metz

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

Nantes

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Nice

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Lyon

H

0

5

L

O

N


The form score for the Angers is -0.111 and for the St Etienne is -0.074.
The home dynamic for the Angers is -0.232 and the dynamic as a guest for the St Etienne is -0.312.
The offensive ability for the Angers is -0.07 and for the St Etienne is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Angers is 0.207 and for the St Etienne is -0.288.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Angers and the red line for guest team, St Etienne.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Angers

27%

34%

27%

11%

St Etienne

40%

35%

13%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Angers to score 1.18 goals and St Etienne to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Angers to score 1.22 goals and St Etienne to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.09

0-1

2.90

1

4.26

2-3

2.07

2

3.77

4+

5.78

3

4.61

Ov 1.5

1.53

4

8.77

Un 1.5

2.90

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.56

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.64

Gg

2.30

Ov 3.5

5.78

NoG

1.77

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.14

3.59

2-3 goals

1.93

3.98

4.34

4+ goals

3.26

3.60

2.40

Ov 1.5

2.16

3.88

3.58

Un 1.5

2.48

3.14

3.59

Ov 2.5

2.01

8.12

2.64

Un 2.5

2.46

2.64

4.66

Ov 3.5

3.26

3.60

2.40

Un 3.5

2.13

3.58

4.00

Goal-Goal

2.91

2.57

3.74

No Goal

1.93

5.15

3.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

6.52

2.70

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

5.15

3.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Marseille vs Brest at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Marseille and Brest for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Marseille

2.01

1.98

0.8

Draw

3.36

3.91

-4.2

Brest

4.12

4.18

-0.3

Over 2.5

1.96

2.21

-5.8

Under 2.5

1.89

1.83

1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Marseille, Under 2.5 (0.8 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Marseille in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance at home.
Marseille, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Mar

Rennes

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Lille

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Feb

Nice

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Feb

Bordeaux

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Paris SG

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Feb

Lens

A

2

2

D

O

G


Brest in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brest in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance as a guest.
Brest, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Dijon

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Monaco

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Feb

Lyon

H

2

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Lille

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Bordeaux

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Strasbourg

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Metz

H

2

4

L

O

G

24 Jan

Reims

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Marseille is 0.163 and for the Brest is -0.015.
The home dynamic for the Marseille is 0.027 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brest is -0.498.
The offensive ability for the Marseille is 0.243 and for the Brest is 0.311.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Marseille is -0.207 and for the Brest is -0.631.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Marseille and the red line for guest team, Brest.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Marseille

24%

26%

35%

16%

Brest

39%

36%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.56 goals and Brest to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.42 goals and Brest to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.58

1

5.38

2-3

1.93

2

3.73

4+

4.90

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.58

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.15

Ov 3.5

4.90

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.79

3.00

3.24

2-3 goals

1.60

5.63

5.03

4+ goals

2.49

2.83

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.78

4.40

4.72

Un 1.5

2.79

3.00

3.24

Ov 2.5

1.69

6.31

4.02

Un 2.5

2.32

2.96

4.34

Ov 3.5

2.49

2.83

4.08

Un 3.5

1.88

4.31

4.22

Goal-Goal

2.24

2.84

5.00

No Goal

1.80

5.76

3.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.79

5.18

4.01

NG+Un 2.5

1.93

5.76

3.61


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Paris SG vs Nantes at 14 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Paris SG and Nantes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 14 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Paris SG

1.20

1.56

-19.2

Draw

6.95

4.74

6.7

Nantes

14.76

6.85

7.8

Over 2.5

1.60

1.86

-8.7

Under 2.5

2.39

2.16

4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Nantes, Under 2.5 (6.7 %, 7.8 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Paris SG in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance at home.
Paris SG, at home, had 10 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 73.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Bordeaux

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Dijon

A

4

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

Monaco

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Nice

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Marseille

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

Nimes

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Jan

Lorient

A

2

3

L

O

G

22 Jan

Montpellier

H

4

0

W

O

N


Nantes in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nantes in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance as a guest.
Nantes, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Reims

H

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Nimes

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Marseille

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Angers

A

3

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Lille

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Feb

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Monaco

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Metz

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Paris SG is 0.652 and for the Nantes is -0.185.
The home dynamic for the Paris SG is 0.568 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nantes is -0.482.
The offensive ability for the Paris SG is 0.591 and for the Nantes is 0.704.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Paris SG is 0.586 and for the Nantes is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Paris SG and the red line for guest team, Nantes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Paris SG

14%

26%

28%

32%

Nantes

46%

32%

18%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Paris SG to score 2.58 goals and Nantes to score 0.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.98 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 2.18 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Paris SG to score 1.78 goals and Nantes to score 0.81 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 0.97 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

4.39

1

6.10

2-3

1.91

2

4.27

4+

4.02

3

3.45

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.39

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

2.16

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

4.02

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-