# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Newcastle vs Aston Villa at 12 March 2021**** Fulham vs Man City at 13 March 2021**** Leeds vs Chelsea at 13 March 2021**** Everton vs Burnley at 13 March 2021**** Crystal Palace vs West Brom at 13 March 2021**** Southampton vs Brighton at 14 March 2021**** Man United vs West Ham at 14 March 2021**** Arsenal vs Tottenham at 14 March 2021**** Leicester vs Sheffield United at 14 March 2021**** Wolves vs Liverpool at 15 March 2021**

###
Newcastle vs Aston Villa at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newcastle** and **Aston Villa** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **12 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newcastle |
3.95 |
3.66 |
2.0 |

Draw |
3.35 |
4.08 |
-5.3 |

Aston Villa |
2.06 |
2.07 |
-0.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.31 |
1.85 |
10.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
2.17 |
-14.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newcastle, Over 2.5 (2 %, 10.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** at home**.

Newcastle,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Mar |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Man United |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Everton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Aston Villa** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aston Villa** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance** as a guest**.

Aston Villa,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Wolves |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Newcastle** is **-0.319** and for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.037.**

The home dynamic for the **Newcastle** is **-0.373** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.053.**

The offensive ability for the **Newcastle** is **0.157** and for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.059.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Newcastle** is **-0.533** and for the **Aston Villa** is **0.519.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newcastle** and the red line for guest team, **Aston Villa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newcastle |
37% |
22% |
33% |
8% |

Aston Villa |
20% |
31% |
26% |
24% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **0.86 ** goals and **Aston Villa** to score **1.36 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and the guest team **Aston Villa ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Aston Villa** to score **1.53 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and the guest team **Aston Villa ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
4.31 |

1 |
6.33 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
3.60 |

3 |
3.85 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.31 |

5 |
10.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
2.17 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.60 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
5.27 |
3.14 |
2.04 |

2-3 goals |
2.70 |
7.18 |
2.04 |

4+ goals |
6.04 |
2.70 |
2.16 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.37 |
4.48 |
2.08 |

Un 1.5 |
5.27 |
3.14 |
2.04 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.32 |
5.22 |
1.97 |

Un 2.5 |
4.22 |
3.24 |
2.20 |

Ov 3.5 |
6.04 |
2.70 |
2.16 |

Un 3.5 |
3.20 |
5.07 |
2.04 |

Goal-Goal |
3.44 |
2.94 |
2.71 |

No Goal |
3.97 |
6.70 |
1.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.97 |
4.21 |
2.35 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.60 |
6.70 |
1.88 |

####
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###
Fulham vs Man City at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fulham** and **Man City** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fulham |
9.63 |
5.75 |
7.0 |

Draw |
5.04 |
4.39 |
2.9 |

Man City |
1.36 |
1.67 |
-13.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.89 |
-3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.12 |
-0.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Fulham, Draw (7 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fulham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fulham** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance** at home**.

Fulham,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Mar |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Everton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** as a guest**.

Man City,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 30 points, 76.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Mar |
Southampton |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Man United |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Wolves |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Everton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Tottenham |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

07 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Fulham** is **0.311** and for the **Man City** is **0.63.**

The home dynamic for the **Fulham** is **-0.654** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Man City** is **0.498.**

The offensive ability for the **Fulham** is **0.157** and for the **Man City** is **0.63.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Fulham** is **0.586** and for the **Man City** is **-0.657.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fulham** and the red line for guest team, **Man City. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fulham |
42% |
28% |
30% |
0% |

Man City |
15% |
30% |
28% |
28% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fulham** to score **0.53 ** goals and **Man City** to score **2.18 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the guest team **Man City ** to win by **1.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fulham** to score **0.88 ** goals and **Man City** to score **1.69 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the guest team **Man City ** to win by **0.81** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.13 |
0-1 |
4.41 |

1 |
6.06 |
2-3 |
1.89 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
4.08 |

3 |
3.51 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.41 |

5 |
11.90 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
Inf |
Un 2.5 |
2.12 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.08 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
5.68 |
3.66 |
1.82 |

2-3 goals |
3.95 |
6.45 |
1.69 |

4+ goals |
Inf |
2.92 |
1.52 |

Ov 1.5 |
5.78 |
4.66 |
1.63 |

Un 1.5 |
5.68 |
3.66 |
1.82 |

Ov 2.5 |
5.89 |
6.31 |
1.49 |

Un 2.5 |
5.61 |
3.27 |
1.94 |

Ov 3.5 |
Inf |
2.92 |
1.52 |

Un 3.5 |
4.34 |
5.25 |
1.73 |

Goal-Goal |
5.49 |
2.98 |
2.08 |

No Goal |
6.04 |
8.18 |
1.40 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
4.58 |
4.90 |
1.73 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
4.63 |
8.18 |
1.60 |

####
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###
Leeds vs Chelsea at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leeds** and **Chelsea** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leeds |
4.55 |
3.06 |
10.7 |

Draw |
3.91 |
3.80 |
0.7 |

Chelsea |
1.77 |
2.43 |
-15.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.99 |
-6.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.01 |
1.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leeds, Draw, Under 2.5 (10.7 %, 0.7 %, 1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leeds** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leeds** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance** at home**.

Leeds,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Mar |
West Ham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Feb |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Arsenal |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Everton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Leicester |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Chelsea** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chelsea** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance** as a guest**.

Chelsea,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Mar |
Everton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Feb |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Sheffield United |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Feb |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Burnley |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Leeds** is **-0.385** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.667.**

The home dynamic for the **Leeds** is **-0.373** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Chelsea** is **-0.101.**

The offensive ability for the **Leeds** is **-0.278** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.652.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Leeds** is **-0.269** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.631.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leeds** and the red line for guest team, **Chelsea. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leeds |
31% |
31% |
24% |
13% |

Chelsea |
25% |
33% |
23% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leeds** to score **0.91 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.81 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the guest team **Chelsea ** to win by **0.9** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leeds** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.85 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.86 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |

5 |
13.16 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.86 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.29 |
3.29 |
2.55 |

2-3 goals |
2.75 |
4.67 |
2.37 |

4+ goals |
3.55 |
3.20 |
2.47 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.98 |
4.02 |
2.40 |

Un 1.5 |
3.29 |
3.29 |
2.55 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.70 |
6.21 |
2.13 |

Un 2.5 |
3.52 |
2.73 |
2.86 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.55 |
3.20 |
2.47 |

Un 3.5 |
2.92 |
4.07 |
2.43 |

Goal-Goal |
3.36 |
2.79 |
2.90 |

No Goal |
2.79 |
6.15 |
2.09 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.69 |
5.07 |
2.32 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
6.15 |
2.26 |

####
Go to Top

###
Everton vs Burnley at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Everton** and **Burnley** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Everton |
1.89 |
2.00 |
-2.9 |

Draw |
3.50 |
3.95 |
-3.3 |

Burnley |
4.44 |
4.05 |
2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.02 |
1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.98 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Burnley, Over 2.5 (2.2 %, 1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Everton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Everton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance** at home**.

Everton,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Mar |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
West Brom |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Mar |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Man City |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Fulham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Man United |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Burnley** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burnley** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance** as a guest**.

Burnley,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 30.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Mar |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
West Brom |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Feb |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Feb |
Man City |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Everton** is **0.037** and for the **Burnley** is **-0.037.**

The home dynamic for the **Everton** is **-0.157** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Burnley** is **-0.271.**

The offensive ability for the **Everton** is **0.217** and for the **Burnley** is **0.333.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Everton** is **0.233** and for the **Burnley** is **-0.313.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Everton** and the red line for guest team, **Burnley. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Everton |
20% |
28% |
34% |
18% |

Burnley |
35% |
36% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Burnley** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the home team **Everton ** to win by **0.7** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Burnley** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Everton ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.10 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
1.94 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.18 |

3 |
3.89 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
4.10 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |