2021 03 12 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Newcastle vs Aston Villa at 12 March 2021
Fulham vs Man City at 13 March 2021
Leeds vs Chelsea at 13 March 2021
Everton vs Burnley at 13 March 2021
Crystal Palace vs West Brom at 13 March 2021
Southampton vs Brighton at 14 March 2021
Man United vs West Ham at 14 March 2021
Arsenal vs Tottenham at 14 March 2021
Leicester vs Sheffield United at 14 March 2021
Wolves vs Liverpool at 15 March 2021


Newcastle vs Aston Villa at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newcastle and Aston Villa for Premier League (England), which will take place on 12 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newcastle

3.95

3.66

2.0

Draw

3.35

4.08

-5.3

Aston Villa

2.06

2.07

-0.2

Over 2.5

2.31

1.85

10.8

Under 2.5

1.64

2.17

-14.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newcastle, Over 2.5 (2 %, 10.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newcastle in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance at home.
Newcastle, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

West Brom

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Wolves

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Man United

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Feb

Chelsea

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Southampton

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Feb

Crystal Palace

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Everton

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Leeds

H

1

2

L

O

G


Aston Villa in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance as a guest.
Aston Villa, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Wolves

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Mar

Sheffield United

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Leeds

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Leicester

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Brighton

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Arsenal

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

West Ham

H

1

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

Southampton

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Newcastle is -0.319 and for the Aston Villa is -0.037.
The home dynamic for the Newcastle is -0.373 and the dynamic as a guest for the Aston Villa is -0.053.
The offensive ability for the Newcastle is 0.157 and for the Aston Villa is -0.059.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Newcastle is -0.533 and for the Aston Villa is 0.519.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newcastle and the red line for guest team, Aston Villa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newcastle

37%

22%

33%

8%

Aston Villa

20%

31%

26%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newcastle to score 0.86 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.36 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and the guest team Aston Villa to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.12 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.53 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the guest team Aston Villa to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

4.31

1

6.33

2-3

2.05

2

4.39

4+

3.60

3

3.85

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.21

Un 1.5

4.31

5

10.20

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

2.17

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

3.60

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.27

3.14

2.04

2-3 goals

2.70

7.18

2.04

4+ goals

6.04

2.70

2.16

Ov 1.5

3.37

4.48

2.08

Un 1.5

5.27

3.14

2.04

Ov 2.5

3.32

5.22

1.97

Un 2.5

4.22

3.24

2.20

Ov 3.5

6.04

2.70

2.16

Un 3.5

3.20

5.07

2.04

Goal-Goal

3.44

2.94

2.71

No Goal

3.97

6.70

1.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.97

4.21

2.35

NG+Un 2.5

3.60

6.70

1.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Fulham vs Man City at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fulham and Man City for Premier League (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fulham

9.63

5.75

7.0

Draw

5.04

4.39

2.9

Man City

1.36

1.67

-13.6

Over 2.5

1.77

1.89

-3.6

Under 2.5

2.08

2.12

-0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fulham, Draw (7 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fulham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fulham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance at home.
Fulham, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Tottenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Crystal Palace

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Sheffield United

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Everton

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

West Ham

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Feb

Leicester

H

0

2

L

U

N


Man City in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance as a guest.
Man City, as a guest, had 9 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 30 points, 76.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Mar

Southampton

H

5

2

W

O

G

07 Mar

Man United

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Wolves

H

4

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

West Ham

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Arsenal

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Everton

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Tottenham

H

3

0

W

O

N

07 Feb

Liverpool

A

4

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Fulham is 0.311 and for the Man City is 0.63.
The home dynamic for the Fulham is -0.654 and the dynamic as a guest for the Man City is 0.498.
The offensive ability for the Fulham is 0.157 and for the Man City is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Fulham is 0.586 and for the Man City is -0.657.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fulham and the red line for guest team, Man City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fulham

42%

28%

30%

0%

Man City

15%

30%

28%

28%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fulham to score 0.53 goals and Man City to score 2.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 1.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fulham to score 0.88 goals and Man City to score 1.69 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

4.41

1

6.06

2-3

1.89

2

4.10

4+

4.08

3

3.51

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

6.21

Un 1.5

4.41

5

11.90

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

Inf

Un 2.5

2.12

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.08

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.68

3.66

1.82

2-3 goals

3.95

6.45

1.69

4+ goals

Inf

2.92

1.52

Ov 1.5

5.78

4.66

1.63

Un 1.5

5.68

3.66

1.82

Ov 2.5

5.89

6.31

1.49

Un 2.5

5.61

3.27

1.94

Ov 3.5

Inf

2.92

1.52

Un 3.5

4.34

5.25

1.73

Goal-Goal

5.49

2.98

2.08

No Goal

6.04

8.18

1.40

G-G+Ov 2.5

4.58

4.90

1.73

NG+Un 2.5

4.63

8.18

1.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leeds vs Chelsea at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leeds and Chelsea for Premier League (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leeds

4.55

3.06

10.7

Draw

3.91

3.80

0.7

Chelsea

1.77

2.43

-15.3

Over 2.5

1.77

1.99

-6.2

Under 2.5

2.09

2.01

1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leeds, Draw, Under 2.5 (10.7 %, 0.7 %, 1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leeds in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance at home.
Leeds, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Mar

West Ham

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Aston Villa

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Southampton

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Feb

Wolves

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Arsenal

A

2

4

L

O

G

08 Feb

Crystal Palace

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

Everton

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Leicester

A

3

1

W

O

G


Chelsea in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance as a guest.
Chelsea, as a guest, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Mar

Everton

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Mar

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Southampton

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

Newcastle

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Sheffield United

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Feb

Tottenham

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Burnley

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Leeds is -0.385 and for the Chelsea is 0.667.
The home dynamic for the Leeds is -0.373 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chelsea is -0.101.
The offensive ability for the Leeds is -0.278 and for the Chelsea is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leeds is -0.269 and for the Chelsea is 0.631.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leeds and the red line for guest team, Chelsea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leeds

31%

31%

24%

13%

Chelsea

25%

33%

23%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leeds to score 0.91 goals and Chelsea to score 1.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.19 goals and Chelsea to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.85

1

5.52

2-3

2.08

2

4.22

4+

3.86

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.85

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.86

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.29

3.29

2.55

2-3 goals

2.75

4.67

2.37

4+ goals

3.55

3.20

2.47

Ov 1.5

2.98

4.02

2.40

Un 1.5

3.29

3.29

2.55

Ov 2.5

2.70

6.21

2.13

Un 2.5

3.52

2.73

2.86

Ov 3.5

3.55

3.20

2.47

Un 3.5

2.92

4.07

2.43

Goal-Goal

3.36

2.79

2.90

No Goal

2.79

6.15

2.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.69

5.07

2.32

NG+Un 2.5

2.79

6.15

2.26


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Everton vs Burnley at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Everton and Burnley for Premier League (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Everton

1.89

2.00

-2.9

Draw

3.50

3.95

-3.3

Burnley

4.44

4.05

2.2

Over 2.5

2.08

2.02

1.4

Under 2.5

1.78

1.98

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Burnley, Over 2.5 (2.2 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Everton in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance at home.
Everton, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Mar

Chelsea

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Mar

West Brom

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Southampton

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Liverpool

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Man City

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Fulham

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Man United

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Feb

Leeds

A

2

1

W

O

G


Burnley in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burnley in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance as a guest.
Burnley, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 30.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Arsenal

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Leicester

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Tottenham

A

0

4

L

O

N

20 Feb

West Brom

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Feb

Fulham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Crystal Palace

A

3

0

W

O

N

06 Feb

Brighton

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Feb

Man City

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Everton is 0.037 and for the Burnley is -0.037.
The home dynamic for the Everton is -0.157 and the dynamic as a guest for the Burnley is -0.271.
The offensive ability for the Everton is 0.217 and for the Burnley is 0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Everton is 0.233 and for the Burnley is -0.313.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Everton and the red line for guest team, Burnley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Everton

20%

28%

34%

18%

Burnley

35%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 1.54 goals and Burnley to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Everton to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.49 goals and Burnley to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Everton to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

4.10

1

5.81

2-3

1.94

2

3.88

4+

4.18

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.49

Un 1.5

4.10

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-