2021 03 12 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nacional vs Maritimo at 12 March 2021
Tondela vs Sp Lisbon at 13 March 2021
Santa Clara vs Portimonense at 13 March 2021
Farense vs Belenenses at 13 March 2021
Benfica vs Boavista at 13 March 2021
Guimaraes vs Gil Vicente at 14 March 2021
Porto vs Pacos Ferreira at 14 March 2021
Moreirense vs Rio Ave at 14 March 2021
Famalicao vs Sp Braga at 15 March 2021


Nacional vs Maritimo at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nacional and Maritimo for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 12 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nacional

2.74

2.51

3.3

Draw

2.98

3.62

-5.9

Maritimo

2.74

3.08

-4.0

Over 2.5

2.28

2.24

0.8

Under 2.5

1.64

1.81

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nacional, Over 2.5 (3.3 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nacional in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nacional in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance at home.
Nacional, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Mar

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Sp Braga

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Belenenses

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Farense

H

2

3

L

O

G

09 Feb

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Feb

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Famalicao

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Jan

Benfica

A

1

1

D

U

G


Maritimo in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maritimo in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance as a guest.
Maritimo, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Moreirense

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Portimonense

A

0

0

D

U

N

22 Feb

Porto

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Tondela

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 Feb

Santa Clara

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Feb

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N

31 Jan

Guimaraes

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Pacos Ferreira

H

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Nacional is -0.57 and for the Maritimo is -0.815.
The home dynamic for the Nacional is -0.276 and the dynamic as a guest for the Maritimo is -0.49.
The offensive ability for the Nacional is 0.678 and for the Maritimo is -0.037.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nacional is -0.322 and for the Maritimo is -0.571.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nacional and the red line for guest team, Maritimo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nacional

28%

35%

21%

16%

Maritimo

33%

35%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nacional to score 1.11 goals and Maritimo to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nacional to score 1.25 goals and Maritimo to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.28

1

4.69

2-3

2.09

2

4.03

4+

4.63

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.28

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.32

3.11

2-3 goals

2.43

3.93

2.99

4+ goals

2.51

3.48

3.18

Ov 1.5

2.46

3.78

3.05

Un 1.5

2.65

3.32

3.11

Ov 2.5

2.10

7.21

2.60

Un 2.5

2.99

2.58

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.51

3.48

3.18

Un 3.5

2.51

3.66

3.04

Goal-Goal

3.00

2.63

3.50

No Goal

2.18

5.62

2.75

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.24

5.82

2.62

NG+Un 2.5

2.33

5.62

2.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Tondela vs Sp Lisbon at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tondela and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tondela

7.32

5.99

3.0

Draw

4.35

4.15

1.1

Sp Lisbon

1.43

1.69

-10.8

Over 2.5

1.84

2.19

-8.7

Under 2.5

1.97

1.84

3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tondela, Draw, Under 2.5 (3 %, 1.1 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tondela in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance at home.
Tondela, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 69.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Portimonense

A

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Gil Vicente

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Sp Braga

A

2

4

L

O

G

16 Feb

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Rio Ave

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Farense

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Jan

Belenenses

A

0

2

L

U

N


Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Lisbon, as a guest, had 9 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 29 points, 87.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Mar

Santa Clara

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Porto

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Portimonense

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Feb

Maritimo

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Benfica

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Boavista

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Tondela is -0.311 and for the Sp Lisbon is 0.815.
The home dynamic for the Tondela is 0.654 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Lisbon is 1.
The offensive ability for the Tondela is 0.539 and for the Sp Lisbon is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Tondela is -0.559 and for the Sp Lisbon is 0.519.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tondela and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tondela

44%

38%

14%

3%

Sp Lisbon

20%

27%

28%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tondela to score 0.62 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tondela to score 0.76 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.58 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.51

1

5.08

2-3

1.92

2

3.86

4+

5.15

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.51

5

22.73

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.25

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.80

3.24

2.34

2-3 goals

7.12

5.00

1.52

4+ goals

10.78

3.96

1.53

Ov 1.5

7.85

4.67

1.52

Un 1.5

3.80

3.24

2.34

Ov 2.5

7.22

9.29

1.33

Un 2.5

5.28

2.83

2.18

Ov 3.5

10.78

3.96

1.53

Un 3.5

5.44

4.19

1.73

Goal-Goal

7.81

2.91

1.89

No Goal

5.08

6.30

1.55

G-G+Ov 2.5

5.98

6.96

1.45

NG+Un 2.5

4.27

6.30

1.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Santa Clara vs Portimonense at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Santa Clara and Portimonense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Santa Clara

2.58

2.15

7.8

Draw

2.89

3.70

-7.6

Portimonense

3.04

3.77

-6.4

Over 2.5

2.49

2.34

2.6

Under 2.5

1.55

1.75

-7.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Santa Clara, Over 2.5 (7.8 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Santa Clara in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance at home.
Santa Clara, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Mar

Sp Lisbon

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Gil Vicente

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Sp Braga

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Feb

Maritimo

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Feb

Farense

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Feb

Belenenses

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Jan

Rio Ave

A

2

1

W

O

G


Portimonense in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portimonense in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance as a guest.
Portimonense, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 15.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Tondela

H

3

0

W

O

N

28 Feb

Maritimo

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Sp Lisbon

A

0

2

L

U

N

14 Feb

Gil Vicente

H

4

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Feb

Sp Braga

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Boavista

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Moreirense

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Santa Clara is -0.2 and for the Portimonense is 0.052.
The home dynamic for the Santa Clara is -0.384 and the dynamic as a guest for the Portimonense is -0.717.
The offensive ability for the Santa Clara is 0.217 and for the Portimonense is -0.015.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Santa Clara is -0.559 and for the Portimonense is 0.227.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Santa Clara and the red line for guest team, Portimonense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Santa Clara

26%

34%

23%

18%

Portimonense

41%

31%

20%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.11 goals and Portimonense to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.33 goals and Portimonense to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Santa Clara to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.62

0-1

3.11

1

4.59

2-3

2.08

2

4.00

4+

5.08

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.75

Un 1.5

3.11

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.34

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.26

Ov 3.5

5.08

NoG

1.79

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

3.10

4.03

2-3 goals

2.05

4.54

3.44

4+ goals

2.14

3.28

4.38

Ov 1.5

2.07

4.08

3.66

Un 1.5

2.33

3.10

4.03

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.13

3.22

Un 2.5

2.49

2.72

4.33

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.28

4.38

Un 3.5

2.15

3.82

3.65

Goal-Goal

2.71

2.66

3.91

No Goal

1.85

5.37

3.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.06

5.60

2.97

NG+Un 2.5

2.03

5.37

3.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Farense vs Belenenses at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Farense and Belenenses for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Farense

2.46

1.90

12.0

Draw

2.94

3.89

-8.3

Belenenses

3.15

4.63

-10.1

Over 2.5

2.34

2.02

6.8

Under 2.5

1.62

1.98

-11.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Farense, Over 2.5 (12 %, 6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Farense in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Farense in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance at home.
Farense, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Rio Ave

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Famalicao

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Benfica

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Feb

Guimaraes

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Nacional

A

3

2

W

O

G

08 Feb

Moreirense

H

1

2

L

O

G

04 Feb

Santa Clara

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Tondela

A

0

2

L

U

N


Belenenses in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Belenenses in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance as a guest.
Belenenses, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Mar

Benfica

H

0

3

L

O

N

01 Mar

Moreirense

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Feb

Nacional

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Feb

Famalicao

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Feb

Guimaraes

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Feb

Porto

H

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

Santa Clara

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Jan

Tondela

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Farense is -0.185 and for the Belenenses is -0.022.
The home dynamic for the Farense is -0.232 and the dynamic as a guest for the Belenenses is -0.449.
The offensive ability for the Farense is -0.304 and for the Belenenses is 0.015.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Farense is -0.145 and for the Belenenses is -0.313.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Farense and the red line for guest team, Belenenses.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Farense

19%

31%

26%

24%

Belenenses

34%

46%

8%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Farense to score 1.19 goals and Belenenses to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Farense to score 1.56 goals and Belenenses to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Farense to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

3.91

1

5.21

2-3

2.01

2

4.03

4+

4.05

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

5.92

Un 1.5

3.91

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals