# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Nacional vs Maritimo at 12 March 2021**** Tondela vs Sp Lisbon at 13 March 2021**** Santa Clara vs Portimonense at 13 March 2021**** Farense vs Belenenses at 13 March 2021**** Benfica vs Boavista at 13 March 2021**** Guimaraes vs Gil Vicente at 14 March 2021**** Porto vs Pacos Ferreira at 14 March 2021**** Moreirense vs Rio Ave at 14 March 2021**** Famalicao vs Sp Braga at 15 March 2021**

###
Nacional vs Maritimo at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nacional** and **Maritimo** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **12 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nacional |
2.74 |
2.51 |
3.3 |

Draw |
2.98 |
3.62 |
-5.9 |

Maritimo |
2.74 |
3.08 |
-4.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.24 |
0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.81 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nacional, Over 2.5 (3.3 %, 0.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nacional** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nacional** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance** at home**.

Nacional,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Mar |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Sp Braga |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Farense |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Jan |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Maritimo** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maritimo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance** as a guest**.

Maritimo,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Mar |
Moreirense |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Porto |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Tondela |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Feb |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Guimaraes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Nacional** is **-0.57** and for the **Maritimo** is **-0.815.**

The home dynamic for the **Nacional** is **-0.276** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Maritimo** is **-0.49.**

The offensive ability for the **Nacional** is **0.678** and for the **Maritimo** is **-0.037.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Nacional** is **-0.322** and for the **Maritimo** is **-0.571.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nacional** and the red line for guest team, **Maritimo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nacional |
28% |
35% |
21% |
16% |

Maritimo |
33% |
35% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nacional** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Maritimo** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nacional** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Maritimo** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.28 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.28 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
3.32 |
3.11 |

2-3 goals |
2.43 |
3.93 |
2.99 |

4+ goals |
2.51 |
3.48 |
3.18 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.78 |
3.05 |

Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.32 |
3.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
7.21 |
2.60 |

Un 2.5 |
2.99 |
2.58 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.51 |
3.48 |
3.18 |

Un 3.5 |
2.51 |
3.66 |
3.04 |

Goal-Goal |
3.00 |
2.63 |
3.50 |

No Goal |
2.18 |
5.62 |
2.75 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.82 |
2.62 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.33 |
5.62 |
2.80 |

####
Go to Top

###
Tondela vs Sp Lisbon at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tondela** and **Sp Lisbon** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tondela |
7.32 |
5.99 |
3.0 |

Draw |
4.35 |
4.15 |
1.1 |

Sp Lisbon |
1.43 |
1.69 |
-10.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.19 |
-8.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.97 |
1.84 |
3.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Tondela, Draw, Under 2.5 (3 %, 1.1 %, 3.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tondela** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tondela** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance** at home**.

Tondela,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 69.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Sp Braga |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Rio Ave |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Farense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Sp Lisbon** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Lisbon** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance** as a guest**.

Sp Lisbon,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 29 points, 87.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Mar |
Santa Clara |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Porto |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Portimonense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Boavista |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Tondela** is **-0.311** and for the **Sp Lisbon** is **0.815.**

The home dynamic for the **Tondela** is **0.654** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sp Lisbon** is **1.**

The offensive ability for the **Tondela** is **0.539** and for the **Sp Lisbon** is **0.63.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Tondela** is **-0.559** and for the **Sp Lisbon** is **0.519.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tondela** and the red line for guest team, **Sp Lisbon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tondela |
44% |
38% |
14% |
3% |

Sp Lisbon |
20% |
27% |
28% |
24% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tondela** to score **0.62 ** goals and **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the guest team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **1.37** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tondela** to score **0.76 ** goals and **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.58 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the guest team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **0.82** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.51 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
5.15 |

3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |

5 |
22.73 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.25 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.15 |

NoG |
1.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.80 |
3.24 |
2.34 |

2-3 goals |
7.12 |
5.00 |
1.52 |

4+ goals |
10.78 |
3.96 |
1.53 |

Ov 1.5 |
7.85 |
4.67 |
1.52 |

Un 1.5 |
3.80 |
3.24 |
2.34 |

Ov 2.5 |
7.22 |
9.29 |
1.33 |

Un 2.5 |
5.28 |
2.83 |
2.18 |

Ov 3.5 |
10.78 |
3.96 |
1.53 |

Un 3.5 |
5.44 |
4.19 |
1.73 |

Goal-Goal |
7.81 |
2.91 |
1.89 |

No Goal |
5.08 |
6.30 |
1.55 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
5.98 |
6.96 |
1.45 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
4.27 |
6.30 |
1.77 |

####
Go to Top

###
Santa Clara vs Portimonense at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Santa Clara** and **Portimonense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Santa Clara |
2.58 |
2.15 |
7.8 |

Draw |
2.89 |
3.70 |
-7.6 |

Portimonense |
3.04 |
3.77 |
-6.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.34 |
2.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.55 |
1.75 |
-7.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Santa Clara, Over 2.5 (7.8 %, 2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Santa Clara** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Santa Clara** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance** at home**.

Santa Clara,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Mar |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Feb |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Feb |
Farense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Feb |
Belenenses |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Rio Ave |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Portimonense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portimonense** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance** as a guest**.

Portimonense,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 15.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Tondela |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Maritimo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Feb |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Moreirense |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Santa Clara** is **-0.2** and for the **Portimonense** is **0.052.**

The home dynamic for the **Santa Clara** is **-0.384** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Portimonense** is **-0.717.**

The offensive ability for the **Santa Clara** is **0.217** and for the **Portimonense** is **-0.015.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Santa Clara** is **-0.559** and for the **Portimonense** is **0.227.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Santa Clara** and the red line for guest team, **Portimonense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Santa Clara |
26% |
34% |
23% |
18% |

Portimonense |
41% |
31% |
20% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Santa Clara** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.1** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Santa Clara** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and the home team **Santa Clara ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.62 |
0-1 |
3.11 |

1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
5.08 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
7.75 |
Un 1.5 |
3.11 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.75 |

Gg |
2.26 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.08 |

NoG |
1.79 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.33 |
3.10 |
4.03 |

2-3 goals |
2.05 |
4.54 |
3.44 |

4+ goals |
2.14 |
3.28 |
4.38 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.07 |
4.08 |
3.66 |

Un 1.5 |
2.33 |
3.10 |
4.03 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.13 |
3.22 |

Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.72 |
4.33 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.14 |
3.28 |
4.38 |

Un 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.82 |
3.65 |

Goal-Goal |
2.71 |
2.66 |
3.91 |

No Goal |
1.85 |
5.37 |
3.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
5.60 |
2.97 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.37 |
3.53 |

####
Go to Top

###
Farense vs Belenenses at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Farense** and **Belenenses** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Farense |
2.46 |
1.90 |
12.0 |

Draw |
2.94 |
3.89 |
-8.3 |

Belenenses |
3.15 |
4.63 |
-10.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.02 |
6.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.98 |
-11.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Farense, Over 2.5 (12 %, 6.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Farense** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Farense** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance** at home**.

Farense,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Mar |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Famalicao |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Guimaraes |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Nacional |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Feb |
Moreirense |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Feb |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Belenenses** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Belenenses** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance** as a guest**.

Belenenses,** as a guest**, had one win, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Mar |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

01 Mar |
Moreirense |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Feb |
Famalicao |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Feb |
Guimaraes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Feb |
Porto |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Farense** is **-0.185** and for the **Belenenses** is **-0.022.**

The home dynamic for the **Farense** is **-0.232** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Belenenses** is **-0.449.**

The offensive ability for the **Farense** is **-0.304** and for the **Belenenses** is **0.015.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Farense** is **-0.145** and for the **Belenenses** is **-0.313.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Farense** and the red line for guest team, **Belenenses. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Farense |
19% |
31% |
26% |
24% |

Belenenses |
34% |
46% |
8% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Farense** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Belenenses** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Farense** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Belenenses** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Farense ** to win by **0.58** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
3.91 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.05 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.05 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |