2021 03 12 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cartagena vs Ponferradina at 12 March 2021
Vallecano vs Zaragoza at 12 March 2021
Castellon vs Sabadell at 13 March 2021
Mirandes vs Espanol at 13 March 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Las Palmas at 13 March 2021
Girona vs Lugo at 13 March 2021
Tenerife vs Albacete at 14 March 2021
Sp Gijon vs Mallorca at 14 March 2021
Oviedo vs Leganes at 14 March 2021
Logrones vs Malaga at 14 March 2021
Almeria vs Alcorcon at 15 March 2021


Cartagena vs Ponferradina at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cartagena and Ponferradina for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 12 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cartagena

2.34

2.36

-0.4

Draw

2.96

3.53

-5.5

Ponferradina

3.46

3.41

0.4

Over 2.5

2.68

2.42

4.0

Under 2.5

1.45

1.71

-10.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (0.4 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cartagena in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cartagena in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance at home.
Cartagena, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Mallorca

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Feb

Leganes

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Las Palmas

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Vallecano

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Oviedo

H

2

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Sp Gijon

A

0

0

D

U

N

25 Jan

Mirandes

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Jan

Tenerife

A

0

3

L

O

N


Ponferradina in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance as a guest.
Ponferradina, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Sp Gijon

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Vallecano

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Mirandes

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Tenerife

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Feb

Alcorcon

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Jan

Zaragoza

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Malaga

A

2

0

W

U

N

11 Jan

Girona

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Cartagena is -0.037 and for the Ponferradina is 0.022.
The home dynamic for the Cartagena is -0.384 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ponferradina is -0.182.
The offensive ability for the Cartagena is 0.278 and for the Ponferradina is 0.407.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cartagena is 0.119 and for the Ponferradina is -0.253.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cartagena and the red line for guest team, Ponferradina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cartagena

27%

35%

24%

13%

Ponferradina

35%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.12 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.24 goals and Ponferradina to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.14

1

4.48

2-3

2.02

2

3.73

4+

5.41

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.87

Un 1.5

3.14

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.42

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

5.41

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.56

3.35

3.21

2-3 goals

2.22

3.82

3.47

4+ goals

2.47

3.14

3.63

Ov 1.5

2.29

3.60

3.51

Un 1.5

2.56

3.35

3.21

Ov 2.5

1.95

7.00

2.91

Un 2.5

2.79

2.60

3.88

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.14

3.63

Un 3.5

2.35

3.62

3.36

Goal-Goal

2.87

2.50

3.97

No Goal

2.05

5.54

3.02

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

5.81

2.88

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

5.54

3.02


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Vallecano vs Zaragoza at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Vallecano and Zaragoza for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 12 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Vallecano

2.01

1.85

4.3

Draw

3.06

3.95

-7.4

Zaragoza

4.19

4.88

-3.4

Over 2.5

2.59

2.14

8.1

Under 2.5

1.50

1.88

-13.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Vallecano, Over 2.5 (4.3 %, 8.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Vallecano in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vallecano in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vallecano’s performance at home.
Vallecano, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vallecano was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Las Palmas

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Ponferradina

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Malaga

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Cartagena

A

2

2

D

O

G

07 Feb

Tenerife

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Jan

Espanol

A

3

2

W

O

G

23 Jan

Mallorca

H

1

3

L

O

G

19 Jan

Mirandes

A

2

0

W

U

N


Zaragoza in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance as a guest.
Zaragoza, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 14.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Tenerife

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Oviedo

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Feb

Alcorcon

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Feb

Sabadell

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Malaga

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Jan

Ponferradina

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Jan

Albacete

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Jan

Logrones

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Vallecano is -0.185 and for the Zaragoza is 0.126.
The home dynamic for the Vallecano is 0.827 and the dynamic as a guest for the Zaragoza is -0.749.
The offensive ability for the Vallecano is 0.243 and for the Zaragoza is 0.281.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Vallecano is -1 and for the Zaragoza is -0.227.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vallecano and the red line for guest team, Zaragoza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Vallecano

18%

34%

27%

22%

Zaragoza

40%

36%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.27 goals and Zaragoza to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.04 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vallecano to score 1.52 goals and Zaragoza to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Vallecano to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.66

1

4.98

2-3

1.95

2

3.86

4+

4.65

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.66

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.98

3.79

4.33

2-3 goals

1.76

4.23

5.12

4+ goals

1.89

3.58

5.24

Ov 1.5

1.80

4.02

5.16

Un 1.5

1.98

3.79

4.33

Ov 2.5

1.58

7.80

4.22

Un 2.5

2.16

2.76

5.72

Ov 3.5

1.89

3.58

5.24

Un 3.5

1.83

4.07

4.82

Goal-Goal

2.34

2.70

4.94

No Goal

1.53

7.10

4.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.76

6.13

3.72

NG+Un 2.5

1.67

7.10

4.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Castellon vs Sabadell at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Castellon and Sabadell for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Castellon

2.32

2.21

2.1

Draw

3.02

3.61

-5.4

Sabadell

3.42

3.70

-2.2

Over 2.5

2.60

2.33

4.5

Under 2.5

1.51

1.75

-9.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Castellon, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Castellon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Castellon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance at home.
Castellon, at home, had 6 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Castellon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Leganes

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Las Palmas

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

Girona

A

1

2

L

O

G

15 Feb

Fuenlabrada

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Mirandes

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Almeria

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Jan

Sp Gijon

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Espanol

A

0

2

L

U

N


Sabadell in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sabadell in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance as a guest.
Sabadell, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Malaga

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Feb

Albacete

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Espanol

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Feb

Zaragoza

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Las Palmas

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Logrones

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

Almeria

A

2

2

D

O

G

11 Jan

Lugo

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Castellon is -0.43 and for the Sabadell is -0.222.
The home dynamic for the Castellon is -0.265 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sabadell is -0.126.
The offensive ability for the Castellon is 0.191 and for the Sabadell is -0.385.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Castellon is -0.093 and for the Sabadell is 0.09.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Castellon and the red line for guest team, Sabadell.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Castellon

24%

35%

25%

15%

Sabadell

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.16 goals and Sabadell to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.04 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.32 goals and Sabadell to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Castellon to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.27

1

4.61

2-3

1.99

2

3.75

4+

5.15

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.27

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.44

3.36

2-3 goals

2.08

3.90

3.81

4+ goals

2.26

3.23

4.04

Ov 1.5

2.12

3.69

3.87

Un 1.5

2.43

3.44

3.36

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.17

3.21

Un 2.5

2.63

2.63

4.18

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.23

4.04

Un 3.5

2.20

3.71

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.56

4.24

No Goal

1.90

5.84

3.31

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.90

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.84

3.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Mirandes vs Espanol at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mirandes and Espanol for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mirandes

4.25

2.57

15.4

Draw

3.12

3.47

-3.2

Espanol

1.95

3.10

-19.0

Over 2.5

2.63

2.49

2.1

Under 2.5

1.49

1.67

-7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mirandes, Over 2.5 (15.4 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mirandes in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mirandes in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance at home.
Mirandes, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Mar

Alcorcon

A

0

4

L

O

N

01 Mar

Malaga

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Feb

Ponferradina

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Girona

H

3

3

D

O

G

07 Feb

Castellon

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Las Palmas

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Jan

Cartagena

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Vallecano

H

0

2

L

U

N


Espanol in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Espanol in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Espanol’s performance as a guest.
Espanol, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Espanol was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Mar

Oviedo

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Sp Gijon

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Sabadell

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Mallorca

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Feb

Lugo

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Vallecano

H

2

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Girona

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Castellon

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Mirandes is 0.096 and for the Espanol is 0.2.
The home dynamic for the Mirandes is 0.049 and the dynamic as a guest for the Espanol is 0.117.
The offensive ability for the Mirandes is 0.13 and for the Espanol is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Mirandes is 0.119 and for the Espanol is -0.597.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mirandes and the red line for guest team, Espanol.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mirandes

29%

36%

23%

11%

Espanol

34%

36%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mirandes to score 0.75 goals and Espanol to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and the guest team Espanol to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.17 goals and Espanol to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

3.05

1

4.39

2-3

2.02

2

3.70

4+

5.65

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.05

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.49

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.15

Ov 3.5

5.65

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-