2021 03 12 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lazio vs Crotone at 12 March 2021
Atalanta vs Spezia at 12 March 2021
Genoa vs Udinese at 13 March 2021
Sassuolo vs Verona at 13 March 2021
Benevento vs Fiorentina at 13 March 2021
Torino vs Inter at 14 March 2021
Parma vs Roma at 14 March 2021
Cagliari vs Juventus at 14 March 2021
Bologna vs Sampdoria at 14 March 2021
Milan vs Napoli at 14 March 2021


Lazio vs Crotone at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lazio and Crotone for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 12 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lazio

1.29

1.93

-25.7

Draw

5.88

3.29

13.4

Crotone

10.36

5.65

8.0

Over 2.5

1.48

2.38

-25.6

Under 2.5

2.61

1.73

19.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Crotone, Under 2.5 (13.4 %, 8 %, 19.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lazio in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lazio in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance at home.
Lazio, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Juventus

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Bologna

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Sampdoria

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Inter

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Feb

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Atalanta

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Sassuolo

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Jan

Roma

H

3

0

W

O

N


Crotone in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance as a guest.
Crotone, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 5.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Torino

H

4

2

W

O

G

03 Mar

Atalanta

A

1

5

L

O

G

28 Feb

Cagliari

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Feb

Juventus

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Feb

Sassuolo

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Milan

A

0

4

L

O

N

31 Jan

Genoa

H

0

3

L

O

N

23 Jan

Fiorentina

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Lazio is -0.089 and for the Crotone is -0.607.
The home dynamic for the Lazio is 0.341 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crotone is -0.806.
The offensive ability for the Lazio is 0.565 and for the Crotone is 0.059.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lazio is -0.233 and for the Crotone is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lazio and the red line for guest team, Crotone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lazio

26%

12%

45%

17%

Crotone

58%

6%

31%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lazio to score 2.63 goals and Crotone to score 0.56 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.19 goals in the game and the home team Lazio to win by 2.07 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lazio to score 1.54 goals and Crotone to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Lazio to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.76

0-1

4.27

1

11.63

2-3

1.91

2

2.90

4+

4.12

3

5.59

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

6.41

Un 1.5

4.27

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

2.37

6+

111.11

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

3.17

Ov 3.5

4.12

NoG

1.46

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.34

1.58

14.62

2-3 goals

1.36

74.86

3.97

4+ goals

3.80

1.64

7.84

Ov 1.5

1.71

4.95

4.71

Un 1.5

3.34

1.58

14.62

Ov 2.5

2.21

2.85

5.08

Un 2.5

1.77

3.74

6.03

Ov 3.5

3.80

1.64

7.84

Un 3.5

1.67

4.89

5.12

Goal-Goal

3.46

2.03

4.57

No Goal

1.60

4.64

6.24

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.38

2.08

4.46

NG+Un 2.5

1.74

4.64

5.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Atalanta vs Spezia at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Atalanta and Spezia for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 12 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atalanta

1.29

2.18

-31.6

Draw

5.81

3.57

10.8

Spezia

10.80

3.83

16.9

Over 2.5

1.60

2.24

-17.9

Under 2.5

2.38

1.81

13.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Spezia, Under 2.5 (10.8 %, 16.9 %, 13.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atalanta in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atalanta in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance at home.
Atalanta, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 61.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Mar

Inter

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Mar

Crotone

H

5

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Sampdoria

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Napoli

H

4

2

W

O

G

14 Feb

Cagliari

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Torino

H

3

3

D

O

G

31 Jan

Lazio

H

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Milan

A

3

0

W

O

N


Spezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance as a guest.
Spezia, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Benevento

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Juventus

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Parma

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Feb

Fiorentina

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Milan

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Sassuolo

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Udinese

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Roma

A

3

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Atalanta is 0.467 and for the Spezia is -0.059.
The home dynamic for the Atalanta is 0.189 and the dynamic as a guest for the Spezia is -0.166.
The offensive ability for the Atalanta is 0.539 and for the Spezia is 0.311.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Atalanta is -0.233 and for the Spezia is -0.657.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atalanta and the red line for guest team, Spezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atalanta

28%

23%

34%

16%

Spezia

48%

13%

31%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atalanta to score 2.46 goals and Spezia to score 0.51 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.97 goals in the game and the home team Atalanta to win by 1.95 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atalanta to score 1.38 goals and Spezia to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Atalanta to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.58

0-1

3.60

1

6.85

2-3

2.03

2

3.60

4+

4.29

3

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.60

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.63

Ov 3.5

4.29

NoG

1.61

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

2.11

7.51

2-3 goals

1.75

16.40

2.72

4+ goals

3.33

1.97

5.18

Ov 1.5

2.07

4.90

3.21

Un 1.5

2.55

2.11

7.51

Ov 2.5

2.35

3.79

3.22

Un 2.5

2.06

3.43

4.48

Ov 3.5

3.33

1.97

5.18

Un 3.5

1.97

4.75

3.53

Goal-Goal

3.30

2.57

3.25

No Goal

1.81

4.72

4.27

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.04

2.97

2.99

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

4.72

4.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Genoa vs Udinese at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Genoa and Udinese for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Genoa

3.30

2.38

11.7

Draw

3.00

3.79

-6.9

Udinese

2.47

3.15

-8.7

Over 2.5

2.49

2.04

8.9

Under 2.5

1.56

1.96

-13.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Genoa, Over 2.5 (11.7 %, 8.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Genoa in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Genoa in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance at home.
Genoa, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Roma

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Mar

Sampdoria

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Inter

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Verona

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Torino

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Napoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Crotone

A

3

0

W

O

N

24 Jan

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N


Udinese in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance as a guest.
Udinese, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Sassuolo

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Milan

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Fiorentina

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Parma

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Feb

Roma

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Feb

Verona

H

2

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Spezia

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Inter

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Genoa is -0.237 and for the Udinese is 0.356.
The home dynamic for the Genoa is -0.232 and the dynamic as a guest for the Udinese is -0.093.
The offensive ability for the Genoa is -0.217 and for the Udinese is 0.704.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Genoa is -0.648 and for the Udinese is 0.176.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Genoa and the red line for guest team, Udinese.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Genoa

26%

30%

26%

17%

Udinese

34%

29%

25%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Genoa to score 0.95 goals and Udinese to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Genoa to score 1.34 goals and Udinese to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.75

1

5.59

2-3

2.06

2

4.12

4+

4.07

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.75

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

3.03

3.47

2-3 goals

2.17

5.45

2.82

4+ goals

2.67

2.86

3.62

Ov 1.5

2.31

4.18

3.05

Un 1.5

2.62

3.03

3.47

Ov 2.5

2.15

5.67

2.79

Un 2.5

2.67

2.88

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.67

2.86

3.62

Un 3.5

2.31

4.25

3.02

Goal-Goal

2.88

2.79

3.40

No Goal

2.05

5.78

2.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.35

4.65

2.78

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

5.78

2.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sassuolo vs Verona at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassuolo and Verona for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sassuolo

2.42

2.58

-2.6

Draw

3.26

3.77

-4.1

Verona

3.11

2.87

2.7

Over 2.5

1.92

2.13

-5.1

Under 2.5

1.95

1.88

1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Verona, Under 2.5 (2.7 %, 1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sassuolo in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance at home.
Sassuolo, at home, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Udinese

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Napoli

H

3

3

D

O

G

20 Feb

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Spezia

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Cagliari

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Jan

Parma

H

1

1

D

U

G


Verona in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Verona in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance as a guest.
Verona, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Milan

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Benevento

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Genoa

A

2

2

D

O

G

15 Feb

Parma

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Udinese

A

0

2

L

U

N

31 Jan

Roma

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Jan

Napoli

H

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Sassuolo is -0.185 and for the Verona is 0.
The home dynamic for the Sassuolo is -0.124 and the dynamic as a guest for the Verona is -0.053.
The offensive ability for the Sassuolo is 0.539 and for the Verona is 0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sassuolo is -1 and for the Verona is -0.571.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sassuolo and the red line for guest team, Verona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sassuolo

29%

33%

23%

15%

Verona

36%

24%

28%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.39 goals and Verona to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.25 goals and Verona to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.71

0-1

3.46

1

5.38

2-3

2.08

2

4.12

4+

4.31

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.46

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.18

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG