# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Lazio vs Crotone at 12 March 2021**** Atalanta vs Spezia at 12 March 2021**** Genoa vs Udinese at 13 March 2021**** Sassuolo vs Verona at 13 March 2021**** Benevento vs Fiorentina at 13 March 2021**** Torino vs Inter at 14 March 2021**** Parma vs Roma at 14 March 2021**** Cagliari vs Juventus at 14 March 2021**** Bologna vs Sampdoria at 14 March 2021**** Milan vs Napoli at 14 March 2021**

###
Lazio vs Crotone at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lazio** and **Crotone** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **12 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lazio |
1.29 |
1.93 |
-25.7 |

Draw |
5.88 |
3.29 |
13.4 |

Crotone |
10.36 |
5.65 |
8.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.48 |
2.38 |
-25.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.61 |
1.73 |
19.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Crotone, Under 2.5 (13.4 %, 8 %, 19.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lazio** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lazio scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lazio** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lazio scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance** at home**.

Lazio,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lazio** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Bologna |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Sampdoria |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Inter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Cagliari |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Atalanta |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Sassuolo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Jan |
Roma |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Crotone** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crotone** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance** as a guest**.

Crotone,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 5.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Mar |
Torino |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Atalanta |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Cagliari |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Juventus |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
Sassuolo |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Milan |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Genoa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Fiorentina |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Lazio** is **-0.089** and for the **Crotone** is **-0.607.**

The home dynamic for the **Lazio** is **0.341** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Crotone** is **-0.806.**

The offensive ability for the **Lazio** is **0.565** and for the **Crotone** is **0.059.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Lazio** is **-0.233** and for the **Crotone** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lazio** and the red line for guest team, **Crotone. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lazio |
26% |
12% |
45% |
17% |

Crotone |
58% |
6% |
31% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lazio** to score **2.63 ** goals and **Crotone** to score **0.56 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.19** goals in the game and the home team **Lazio ** to win by **2.07** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lazio** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Crotone** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Lazio ** to win by **0.7** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
6.76 |
0-1 |
4.27 |

1 |
11.63 |
2-3 |
1.91 |

2 |
2.90 |
4+ |
4.12 |

3 |
5.59 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
4.27 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |

6+ |
111.11 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |

Gg |
3.17 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.12 |

NoG |
1.46 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.34 |
1.58 |
14.62 |

2-3 goals |
1.36 |
74.86 |
3.97 |

4+ goals |
3.80 |
1.64 |
7.84 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.71 |
4.95 |
4.71 |

Un 1.5 |
3.34 |
1.58 |
14.62 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
2.85 |
5.08 |

Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
3.74 |
6.03 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.80 |
1.64 |
7.84 |

Un 3.5 |
1.67 |
4.89 |
5.12 |

Goal-Goal |
3.46 |
2.03 |
4.57 |

No Goal |
1.60 |
4.64 |
6.24 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.38 |
2.08 |
4.46 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.74 |
4.64 |
5.96 |

####
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###
Atalanta vs Spezia at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Atalanta** and **Spezia** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **12 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Atalanta |
1.29 |
2.18 |
-31.6 |

Draw |
5.81 |
3.57 |
10.8 |

Spezia |
10.80 |
3.83 |
16.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.60 |
2.24 |
-17.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.38 |
1.81 |
13.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Spezia, Under 2.5 (10.8 %, 16.9 %, 13.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Atalanta** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Atalanta** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance** at home**.

Atalanta,** at home**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 61.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Mar |
Inter |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Crotone |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Sampdoria |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Napoli |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Cagliari |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Torino |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Lazio |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Milan |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Spezia** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Spezia** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance** as a guest**.

Spezia,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Benevento |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Juventus |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Parma |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Feb |
Fiorentina |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Milan |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Sassuolo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Udinese |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Roma |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Atalanta** is **0.467** and for the **Spezia** is **-0.059.**

The home dynamic for the **Atalanta** is **0.189** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Spezia** is **-0.166.**

The offensive ability for the **Atalanta** is **0.539** and for the **Spezia** is **0.311.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Atalanta** is **-0.233** and for the **Spezia** is **-0.657.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Atalanta** and the red line for guest team, **Spezia. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Atalanta |
28% |
23% |
34% |
16% |

Spezia |
48% |
13% |
31% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Atalanta** to score **2.46 ** goals and **Spezia** to score **0.51 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.97** goals in the game and the home team **Atalanta ** to win by **1.95** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Atalanta** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Spezia** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and the home team **Atalanta ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.58 |
0-1 |
3.60 |

1 |
6.85 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.60 |
4+ |
4.29 |

3 |
4.67 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.60 |

5 |
13.16 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.63 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.29 |

NoG |
1.61 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.55 |
2.11 |
7.51 |

2-3 goals |
1.75 |
16.40 |
2.72 |

4+ goals |
3.33 |
1.97 |
5.18 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.07 |
4.90 |
3.21 |

Un 1.5 |
2.55 |
2.11 |
7.51 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |
3.79 |
3.22 |

Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
3.43 |
4.48 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.33 |
1.97 |
5.18 |

Un 3.5 |
1.97 |
4.75 |
3.53 |

Goal-Goal |
3.30 |
2.57 |
3.25 |

No Goal |
1.81 |
4.72 |
4.27 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.04 |
2.97 |
2.99 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
4.72 |
4.24 |

####
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###
Genoa vs Udinese at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Genoa** and **Udinese** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Genoa |
3.30 |
2.38 |
11.7 |

Draw |
3.00 |
3.79 |
-6.9 |

Udinese |
2.47 |
3.15 |
-8.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.04 |
8.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.56 |
1.96 |
-13.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Genoa, Over 2.5 (11.7 %, 8.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Genoa** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Genoa** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance** at home**.

Genoa,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Mar |
Roma |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Sampdoria |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Inter |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Verona |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Torino |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Napoli |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Crotone |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Jan |
Cagliari |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Udinese** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Udinese scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Udinese** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Udinese** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance** as a guest**.

Udinese,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Udinese scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Sassuolo |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Milan |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Fiorentina |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Parma |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Roma |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Feb |
Verona |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Spezia |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Inter |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Genoa** is **-0.237** and for the **Udinese** is **0.356.**

The home dynamic for the **Genoa** is **-0.232** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Udinese** is **-0.093.**

The offensive ability for the **Genoa** is **-0.217** and for the **Udinese** is **0.704.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Genoa** is **-0.648** and for the **Udinese** is **0.176.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Genoa** and the red line for guest team, **Udinese. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Genoa |
26% |
30% |
26% |
17% |

Udinese |
34% |
29% |
25% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Genoa** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Udinese** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.11** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Genoa** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Udinese** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.75 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.62 |
3.03 |
3.47 |

2-3 goals |
2.17 |
5.45 |
2.82 |

4+ goals |
2.67 |
2.86 |
3.62 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.31 |
4.18 |
3.05 |

Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
3.03 |
3.47 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
5.67 |
2.79 |

Un 2.5 |
2.67 |
2.88 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.67 |
2.86 |
3.62 |

Un 3.5 |
2.31 |
4.25 |
3.02 |

Goal-Goal |
2.88 |
2.79 |
3.40 |

No Goal |
2.05 |
5.78 |
2.94 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |
4.65 |
2.78 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
5.78 |
2.96 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sassuolo vs Verona at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sassuolo** and **Verona** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sassuolo |
2.42 |
2.58 |
-2.6 |

Draw |
3.26 |
3.77 |
-4.1 |

Verona |
3.11 |
2.87 |
2.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
2.13 |
-5.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.95 |
1.88 |
1.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Verona, Under 2.5 (2.7 %, 1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sassuolo** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sassuolo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance** at home**.

Sassuolo,** at home**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Udinese |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Napoli |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Crotone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Spezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Cagliari |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Jan |
Lazio |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Parma |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Verona** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Verona scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Verona** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Verona scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance** as a guest**.

Verona,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Verona scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Mar |
Milan |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Benevento |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Genoa |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Parma |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Udinese |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Roma |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Napoli |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sassuolo** is **-0.185** and for the **Verona** is **0.**

The home dynamic for the **Sassuolo** is **-0.124** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Verona** is **-0.053.**

The offensive ability for the **Sassuolo** is **0.539** and for the **Verona** is **0.333.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sassuolo** is **-1** and for the **Verona** is **-0.571.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sassuolo** and the red line for guest team, **Verona. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sassuolo |
29% |
33% |
23% |
15% |

Verona |
36% |
24% |
28% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sassuolo** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Verona** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sassuolo** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Verona** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.71 |
0-1 |
3.46 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.46 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
2.18 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |