Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Frosinone vs Brescia at 13 March 2021
Salernitana vs Cosenza at 13 March 2021
Reggina vs Monza at 13 March 2021
Lecce vs Chievo at 13 March 2021
Cremonese vs Reggiana at 13 March 2021
Ascoli vs Venezia at 13 March 2021
Pordenone vs Pescara at 13 March 2021
Frosinone vs Brescia at 13 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Frosinone and Brescia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Frosinone |
2.26 |
2.51 |
-4.4 |
|
Draw |
2.91 |
3.52 |
-6.0 |
|
Brescia |
3.57 |
3.15 |
3.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.30 |
-2.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.77 |
-3.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Brescia (3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Frosinone in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance at home.
Frosinone, at home, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Cosenza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Monza |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Cremonese |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Feb |
Pescara |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Virtus Entella |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Venezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Brescia in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brescia in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance as a guest.
Brescia, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brescia was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Venezia |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Cosenza |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Virtus Entella |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
14 Feb |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Feb |
Lecce |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Cittadella |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The form score for the Frosinone is 0.17 and for the Brescia is 0.37.
The home dynamic for the Frosinone is -0.092 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brescia is -0.312.
The offensive ability for the Frosinone is 0.217 and for the Brescia is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Frosinone is -0.621 and for the Brescia is 0.227.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Frosinone and the red line for guest team, Brescia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Frosinone |
24% |
41% |
21% |
14% |
|
Brescia |
33% |
36% |
20% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.32 goals and Brescia to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.24 goals and Brescia to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.31 |
|
1 |
4.50 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
4.88 |
|
3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |
|
4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.31 |
|
5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
|
6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
|
Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.88 |
|
NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.25 |
3.78 |
3.43 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.61 |
3.39 |
3.11 |
|
4+ goals |
2.70 |
3.53 |
2.89 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.43 |
3.04 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.78 |
3.43 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
7.52 |
2.41 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.50 |
4.13 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.70 |
3.53 |
2.89 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.46 |
3.53 |
3.23 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.35 |
2.50 |
3.33 |
|
No Goal |
1.99 |
6.16 |
2.99 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |
6.26 |
2.37 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.16 |
3.07 |
Go to Top
Salernitana vs Cosenza at 13 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Salernitana and Cosenza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Salernitana |
2.16 |
2.14 |
0.4 |
|
Draw |
2.90 |
3.55 |
-6.3 |
|
Cosenza |
3.89 |
4.00 |
-0.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.38 |
-1.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.72 |
-3.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Salernitana (0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Salernitana in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance at home.
Salernitana, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Cremonese |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Spal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Feb |
Reggiana |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Ascoli |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Vicenza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Pisa |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
01 Feb |
Reggina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Cosenza in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cosenza in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance as a guest.
Cosenza, as a guest, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cosenza was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Frosinone |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Brescia |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Feb |
Lecce |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Feb |
Reggina |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Cittadella |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Spal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Virtus Entella |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The form score for the Salernitana is 0.356 and for the Cosenza is -0.37.
The home dynamic for the Salernitana is 0.665 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cosenza is 0.093.
The offensive ability for the Salernitana is 0.157 and for the Cosenza is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Salernitana is 0.7 and for the Cosenza is -0.597.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salernitana and the red line for guest team, Cosenza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Salernitana |
21% |
40% |
21% |
17% |
|
Cosenza |
37% |
38% |
17% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.31 goals and Cosenza to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Salernitana to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.34 goals and Cosenza to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Salernitana to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.21 |
|
1 |
4.31 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.26 |
|
3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |
|
4 |
7.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.21 |
|
5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |
|
Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.26 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.07 |
3.90 |
3.85 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.24 |
3.22 |
4.10 |
|
4+ goals |
2.00 |
3.96 |
4.04 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.40 |
4.08 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.07 |
3.90 |
3.85 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
8.71 |
3.17 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.48 |
4.96 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.00 |
3.96 |
4.04 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.45 |
4.00 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.83 |
2.44 |
4.24 |
|
No Goal |
1.73 |
6.32 |
3.80 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
7.04 |
2.91 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
6.32 |
3.64 |
Go to Top
Reggina vs Monza at 13 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Reggina and Monza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Reggina |
3.19 |
2.60 |
7.1 |
|
Draw |
2.98 |
3.40 |
-4.1 |
|
Monza |
2.34 |
3.12 |
-10.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.35 |
-0.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.74 |
-6.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggina (7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Reggina in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggina in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Reggina’s performance at home.
Reggina, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggina was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Empoli |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Spal |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Feb |
Pordenone |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Feb |
Cosenza |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
10 Feb |
Virtus Entella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Pescara |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
01 Feb |
Salernitana |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Monza in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance as a guest.
Monza, as a guest, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monza was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Pordenone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Frosinone |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Cittadella |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Feb |
Pisa |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Feb |
Vicenza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Empoli |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Spal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The form score for the Reggina is 0.281 and for the Monza is 0.348.
The home dynamic for the Reggina is -0.362 and the dynamic as a guest for the Monza is 0.174.
The offensive ability for the Reggina is 0.104 and for the Monza is 0.356.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Reggina is 0.172 and for the Monza is 0.227.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reggina and the red line for guest team, Monza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Reggina |
27% |
36% |
26% |
11% |
|
Monza |
28% |
44% |
19% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reggina to score 0.97 goals and Monza to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reggina to score 1.21 goals and Monza to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.42 |
|
1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
1.91 |
|
2 |
3.52 |
4+ |
5.38 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
7.63 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |
|
5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |
|
6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |
|
Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.38 |
|
NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.95 |
2.47 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.39 |
3.25 |
3.64 |
|
4+ goals |
2.78 |
3.15 |
3.10 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.23 |
3.48 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
3.95 |
2.47 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
7.22 |
2.77 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.33 |
2.45 |
3.43 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.78 |
3.15 |
3.10 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.47 |
3.11 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.89 |
2.42 |
4.16 |
|
No Goal |
2.33 |
6.35 |
2.42 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.29 |
2.90 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
6.35 |
2.47 |
Go to Top
Lecce vs Chievo at 13 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Lecce and Chievo for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Lecce |
2.36 |
2.42 |
-1.1 |
|
Draw |
3.11 |
3.60 |
-4.4 |
|
Chievo |
3.07 |
3.24 |
-1.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.22 |
-1.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.82 |
-3.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Lecce in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lecce in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance at home.
Lecce, at home, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lecce was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Mar |
Reggiana |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Virtus Entella |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Pescara |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Feb |
Cosenza |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Feb |
Cremonese |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Brescia |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
05 Feb |
Ascoli |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Pordenone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Chievo in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chievo in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance as a guest.
Chievo, as a guest, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chievo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Mar |
Vicenza |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Pordenone |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Cosenza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Monza |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Brescia |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Feb |
Reggiana |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Salernitana |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Pescara |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The form score for the Lecce is 0.504 and for the Chievo is -0.356.
The home dynamic for the Lecce is 0.146 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chievo is 0.15.
The offensive ability for the Lecce is 0.565 and for the Chievo is 0.037.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lecce is -0.093 and for the Chievo is -0.253.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lecce and the red line for guest team, Chievo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Lecce |
25% |
34% |
28% |
13% |
|
Chievo |
32% |
38% |
20% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.27 goals and Chievo to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.28 goals and Chievo to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.55 |
|
1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
1.97 |
|
2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
4.74 |
|
3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.55 |
|
5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.74 |
|
NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |