# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Frosinone vs Brescia at 13 March 2021**** Salernitana vs Cosenza at 13 March 2021**** Reggina vs Monza at 13 March 2021**** Lecce vs Chievo at 13 March 2021**** Cremonese vs Reggiana at 13 March 2021**** Ascoli vs Venezia at 13 March 2021**** Pordenone vs Pescara at 13 March 2021**

###
Frosinone vs Brescia at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Frosinone** and **Brescia** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Frosinone |
2.26 |
2.51 |
-4.4 |

Draw |
2.91 |
3.52 |
-6.0 |

Brescia |
3.57 |
3.15 |
3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.30 |
-2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.77 |
-3.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Brescia (3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Frosinone** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Frosinone** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance** at home**.

Frosinone,** at home**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Cosenza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Monza |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Cremonese |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Feb |
Pescara |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Virtus Entella |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Venezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Brescia** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Brescia** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brescia** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Brescia** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance** as a guest**.

Brescia,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Brescia scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brescia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Venezia |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Cosenza |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Virtus Entella |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Lecce |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Cittadella |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Frosinone** is **0.17** and for the **Brescia** is **0.37.**

The home dynamic for the **Frosinone** is **-0.092** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Brescia** is **-0.312.**

The offensive ability for the **Frosinone** is **0.217** and for the **Brescia** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Frosinone** is **-0.621** and for the **Brescia** is **0.227.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Frosinone** and the red line for guest team, **Brescia. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Frosinone |
24% |
41% |
21% |
14% |

Brescia |
33% |
36% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Frosinone** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Brescia** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and the home team **Frosinone ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Frosinone** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Brescia** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.31 |

1 |
4.50 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
4.88 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.31 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.88 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.25 |
3.78 |
3.43 |

2-3 goals |
2.61 |
3.39 |
3.11 |

4+ goals |
2.70 |
3.53 |
2.89 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.43 |
3.04 |

Un 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.78 |
3.43 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
7.52 |
2.41 |

Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.50 |
4.13 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.70 |
3.53 |
2.89 |

Un 3.5 |
2.46 |
3.53 |
3.23 |

Goal-Goal |
3.35 |
2.50 |
3.33 |

No Goal |
1.99 |
6.16 |
2.99 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |
6.26 |
2.37 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.16 |
3.07 |

####
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###
Salernitana vs Cosenza at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Salernitana** and **Cosenza** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Salernitana |
2.16 |
2.14 |
0.4 |

Draw |
2.90 |
3.55 |
-6.3 |

Cosenza |
3.89 |
4.00 |
-0.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.38 |
-1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.72 |
-3.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Salernitana (0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Salernitana** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salernitana** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 1 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance** at home**.

Salernitana,** at home**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Cremonese |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Spal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Feb |
Reggiana |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Ascoli |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Vicenza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Feb |
Pisa |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Feb |
Reggina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Cosenza** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cosenza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cosenza** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cosenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance** as a guest**.

Cosenza,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Cosenza scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cosenza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Frosinone |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Brescia |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Lecce |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Reggina |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Cittadella |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Spal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Virtus Entella |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Salernitana** is **0.356** and for the **Cosenza** is **-0.37.**

The home dynamic for the **Salernitana** is **0.665** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cosenza** is **0.093.**

The offensive ability for the **Salernitana** is **0.157** and for the **Cosenza** is **0.63.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Salernitana** is **0.7** and for the **Cosenza** is **-0.597.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Salernitana** and the red line for guest team, **Cosenza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Salernitana |
21% |
40% |
21% |
17% |

Cosenza |
37% |
38% |
17% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Salernitana** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Cosenza** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and the home team **Salernitana ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Salernitana** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Cosenza** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the home team **Salernitana ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.21 |

1 |
4.31 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.26 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
7.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.21 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.26 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.07 |
3.90 |
3.85 |

2-3 goals |
2.24 |
3.22 |
4.10 |

4+ goals |
2.00 |
3.96 |
4.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.40 |
4.08 |

Un 1.5 |
2.07 |
3.90 |
3.85 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
8.71 |
3.17 |

Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.48 |
4.96 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.00 |
3.96 |
4.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.45 |
4.00 |

Goal-Goal |
2.83 |
2.44 |
4.24 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
6.32 |
3.80 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
7.04 |
2.91 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
6.32 |
3.64 |

####
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###
Reggina vs Monza at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reggina** and **Monza** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reggina |
3.19 |
2.60 |
7.1 |

Draw |
2.98 |
3.40 |
-4.1 |

Monza |
2.34 |
3.12 |
-10.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.35 |
-0.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.74 |
-6.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reggina (7.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reggina** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reggina** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggina scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggina’s performance** at home**.

Reggina,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggina scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reggina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Empoli |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Spal |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Pordenone |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Feb |
Cosenza |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Feb |
Virtus Entella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Pescara |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Salernitana |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Monza** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Monza** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance** as a guest**.

Monza,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Pordenone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Frosinone |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Cittadella |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Feb |
Pisa |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Vicenza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Empoli |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Spal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Reggina** is **0.281** and for the **Monza** is **0.348.**

The home dynamic for the **Reggina** is **-0.362** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Monza** is **0.174.**

The offensive ability for the **Reggina** is **0.104** and for the **Monza** is **0.356.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Reggina** is **0.172** and for the **Monza** is **0.227.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reggina** and the red line for guest team, **Monza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reggina |
27% |
36% |
26% |
11% |

Monza |
28% |
44% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reggina** to score **0.97 ** goals and **Monza** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reggina** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Monza** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.42 |

1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
1.91 |

2 |
3.52 |
4+ |
5.38 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.63 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.38 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.95 |
2.47 |

2-3 goals |
2.39 |
3.25 |
3.64 |

4+ goals |
2.78 |
3.15 |
3.10 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.23 |
3.48 |

Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
3.95 |
2.47 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
7.22 |
2.77 |

Un 2.5 |
3.33 |
2.45 |
3.43 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.78 |
3.15 |
3.10 |

Un 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.47 |
3.11 |

Goal-Goal |
2.89 |
2.42 |
4.16 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.35 |
2.42 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.29 |
2.90 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
6.35 |
2.47 |

####
Go to Top

###
Lecce vs Chievo at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lecce** and **Chievo** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lecce |
2.36 |
2.42 |
-1.1 |

Draw |
3.11 |
3.60 |
-4.4 |

Chievo |
3.07 |
3.24 |
-1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.22 |
-1.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.82 |
-3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lecce** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lecce** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance** at home**.

Lecce,** at home**, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Mar |
Reggiana |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Virtus Entella |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Pescara |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Cosenza |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Cremonese |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Brescia |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Ascoli |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Pordenone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Chievo** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chievo** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance** as a guest**.

Chievo,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chievo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Mar |
Vicenza |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Pordenone |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Cosenza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Monza |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Brescia |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Feb |
Reggiana |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Salernitana |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Pescara |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Lecce** is **0.504** and for the **Chievo** is **-0.356.**

The home dynamic for the **Lecce** is **0.146** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Chievo** is **0.15.**

The offensive ability for the **Lecce** is **0.565** and for the **Chievo** is **0.037.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Lecce** is **-0.093** and for the **Chievo** is **-0.253.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lecce** and the red line for guest team, **Chievo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lecce |
25% |
34% |
28% |
13% |

Chievo |
32% |
38% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lecce** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Chievo** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lecce** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Chievo** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.55 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
4.74 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.55 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.74 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |