2021 03 13 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Promitheas vs Aris at 13 March 2021
Panathinaikos vs Ionikos Nikaias at 13 March 2021
PAOK vs AEK Athens at 13 March 2021
GS Lavrio vs Peristeri at 14 March 2021
Iraklis vs Mesologgi BC at 14 March 2021
Larissa BC vs Kolossos Rhodes at 14 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Promitheas vs Aris at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Promitheas and Aris for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Promitheas

1.12

1.86

Aris

6.5

2.17

Promitheas HC

-11.5

-2.00

Aris HC

+11.5

2.00

Point Line

151.5

149.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 6

A

P.A.O.K.

L

78

81

9

5

L 1

74

79

Feb 6

H

Larisa

W

81

63

9

4

W 3

77

65

Jan 31

A

Panathinaikos

W

80

78

8

4

W 2

86

68

Jan 23

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

90

88

7

4

W 1

91

83

Jan 20

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

72

75

6

4

L 1

73

71

Jan 16

A

AEK Athens

W

82

75

6

3

W 2

90

71

Jan 10

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

85

61

5

3

W 1

86

66

Jan 6

A

Larisa

L

81

85

4

3

L 1

77

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 10

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

76

54

6

10

W 2

77

59

Mar 6

H

Larisa

W

70

52

5

10

W 1

67

54

Feb 28

A

Panathinaikos

L

72

94

4

10

L 2

77

82

Feb 6

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

89

94

4

9

L 1

90

89

Jan 23

H

Messolonghi

W

77

48

4

8

W 1

73

51

Jan 17

H

Panathinaikos

L

75

93

3

8

L 5

80

81

Jan 9

H

Peristeri

L

71

84

3

7

L 4

73

88

Jan 3

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

64

68

3

6

L 3

60

67

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Promitheas (in the first graph) and by Aris in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Promitheas will expected to score 78 points and the Aris 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Promitheas

Aris

FG%

0.53

0.52

ASS

16.60

13.80

DRB

22.10

21.90

AST-TO

1.29

1.02

TRB

28.00

31.30

FTM

14.10

16.50

BL

3.10

1.80

FTA

20.00

22.40

PF-Fewer

18.60

21.80

ST

7.10

7.90

TO-Fewer

12.90

13.50

Ftper

0.71

0.74

ORBper

0.27

0.43

ORB

5.90

9.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Panathinaikos vs Ionikos Nikaias at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Ionikos Nikaias for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Panathinaikos

0.02

1.17

Ionikos Nikaias

14

6.95

Panathinaikos HC

-20.5

-9.50

Ionikos Nikaias HC

+20.5

9.50

Point Line

166.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

A

Kolossos Rodou

W

95

82

12

2

W 2

95

80

Feb 28

H

Aris

W

94

72

11

2

W 1

93

73

Jan 31

H

Promitheas Patras

L

78

80

10

2

L 1

78

84

Jan 24

A

Larisa

W

98

89

10

1

W 3

93

92

Jan 17

A

Aris

W

93

75

9

1

W 2

92

76

Jan 10

H

AEK Athens

W

80

75

8

1

W 1

87

71

Jan 3

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

82

92

7

1

L 1

83

87

Dec 27

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

106

74

7

0

W 6

108

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

88

89

6

10

L 1

89

84

Feb 28

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

78

75

6

9

W 2

79

82

Feb 6

H

Messolonghi

W

100

85

5

9

W 1

95

90

Jan 30

A

Peristeri

L

70

86

4

9

L 3

72

90

Jan 23

A

AEK Athens

L

74

81

4

8

L 2

81

76

Jan 9

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

74

94

4

7

L 1

74

92

Jan 3

H

Aris

W

68

64

4

6

W 1

67

65

Dec 27

A

P.A.O.K.

L

84

86

3

6

L 1

80

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Panathinaikos (in the first graph) and by Ionikos Nikaias in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Panathinaikos will expected to score 83 points and the Ionikos Nikaias 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Panathinaikos

Ionikos Nikaias

FG%

0.60

0.51

ASS

20.10

14.90

DRB

25.10

22.10

AST-TO

1.33

1.13

TRB

35.10

30.60

FTM

15.20

12.60

BL

3.00

1.60

FTA

19.60

16.40

PF-Fewer

20.50

20.50

ST

7.00

7.20

TO-Fewer

15.10

13.20

Ftper

0.78

0.76

ORBper

0.40

0.38

ORB

10.10

8.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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PAOK vs AEK Athens at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and AEK Athens for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

PAOK

2.32

3.28

AEK Athens

1.75

1.44

PAOK HC

+2.5

6.00

AEK Athens HC

-2.5

-6.00

Point Line

156.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 6

H

Promitheas Patras

W

81

78

8

7

W 2

81

82

Feb 28

A

Larisa

W

91

88

7

7

W 1

87

91

Jan 30

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

77

84

6

7

L 2

78

79

Jan 27

A

AEK Athens

L

56

76

6

6

L 1

61

72

Jan 23

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

79

72

6

5

W 2

80

78

Jan 9

H

Messolonghi

W

96

87

5

5

W 1

91

92

Jan 3

A

Peristeri

L

67

76

4

5

L 1

68

80

Dec 27

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

86

84

4

4

W 3

81

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 6

H

Messolonghi

W

98

76

11

4

W 2

93

80

Feb 6

H

Peristeri

W

91

59

10

4

W 1

93

62

Jan 30

A

Larisa

L

75

76

9

4

L 1

72

78

Jan 27

H

P.A.O.K.

W

76

56

9

3

W 2

72

55

Jan 23

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

81

74

8

3

W 1

76

73

Jan 16

H

Promitheas Patras

L

75

82

7

3

L 2

75

86

Jan 10

A

Panathinaikos

L

75

80

7

2

L 1

80

70

Jan 2

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

89

72

7

1

W 1

89

71

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by PAOK (in the first graph) and by AEK Athens in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, PAOK will expected to score 74 points and the AEK Athens 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

PAOK

AEK Athens

FG%

0.54

0.53

ASS

14.80

17.70

DRB

22.70

22.00

AST-TO

1.05

1.47

TRB

30.10

32.70

FTM

14.50

15.60

BL

1.70

3.20

FTA

19.00

20.80

PF-Fewer

23.20

22.20

ST

7.30

6.70

TO-Fewer

14.10

12.00

Ftper

0.76

0.75

ORBper

0.33

0.49

ORB

7.50

10.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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GS Lavrio vs Peristeri at 14 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between GS Lavrio and Peristeri for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 14 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

GS Lavrio

1.67

2.04

Peristeri

2.2

1.96

GS Lavrio HC

-2.5

1.50

Peristeri HC

+2.5

-1.50

Point Line

150.5

149.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 10

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

83

77

12

4

W 4

83

76

Mar 7

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

89

88

11

4

W 3

84

87

Feb 6

A

Aris

W

94

89

10

4

W 2

93

90

Jan 30

H

P.A.O.K.

W

84

77

9

4

W 1

80

75

Jan 23

A

Promitheas Patras

L

88

90

8

4

L 1

88

95

Jan 20

H

Promitheas Patras

W

75

72

8

3

W 8

75

76

Jan 11

A

Larisa

W

66

58

7

3

W 7

63

60

Jan 3

H

Panathinaikos

W

92

82

6

3

W 6

98

71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 6

H

Iraklis B.C.

L

70

79

9

7

L 1

71

86

Feb 27

A

Messolonghi

W

70

63

9

6

W 1

67

66

Feb 6

A

AEK Athens

L

59

91

8

6

L 1

64

86

Jan 30

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

86

70

8

5

W 1

81

69

Jan 23

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

65

80

7

5

L 1

65

79

Jan 9

A

Aris

W

84

71

7

4

W 2

83

72

Jan 3

H

P.A.O.K.

W

76

67

6

4

W 1

72

66

Dec 26

A

Promitheas Patras

L

58

75

5

4

L 1

58

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by GS Lavrio (in the first graph) and by Peristeri in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, GS Lavrio will expected to score 77 points and the Peristeri 74 points. The total points line estimated to be at 151.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

GS Lavrio

Peristeri

FG%

0.54

0.48

ASS

17.50

16.30

DRB

22.30

24.20

AST-TO

1.36

1.23

TRB

30.10

32.80

FTM

15.30

15.60

BL

2.40

2.40

FTA

21.90

20.00

PF-Fewer

22.40

20.60

ST

7.80

5.80

TO-Fewer

12.90

13.20

Ftper

0.70

0.78

ORBper

0.35

0.36

ORB

7.80

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Iraklis vs Mesologgi BC at 14 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Iraklis and Mesologgi BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 14 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Iraklis

1.23

2.46

Mesologgi BC

4.3

1.68

Iraklis HC

-9.5

3.50

Mesologgi BC HC

+9.5

-3.50

Point Line

152.5

146.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Iraklis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 10

H

Aris

L

54

76

6

10

L 1

53

77

Mar 6

A

Peristeri

W

79

70

6

9

W 1

81

74

Feb 28

H

Ionikos Nikaias

L

75

78

5

9

L 4

71

77

Feb 6

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

61

84

5

8

L 3

61

82