2021 03 13 Israeli Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ironi Nahariya vs Hapoel Beer Sheva at 13 March 2021
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Ironi Ness Ziona at 13 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Ironi Nahariya vs Hapoel Beer Sheva at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ironi Nahariya and Hapoel Beer Sheva for Israeli Super League, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Ironi Nahariya

3.15

2.32

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.35

1.76

Ironi Nahariya HC

+6.5

2.50

Hapoel Beer Sheva HC

-6.5

-2.50

Point Line

172.5

170.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ironi Nahariya are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 8

H

Bnei Herzliya

L

80

104

3

15

L 1

77

100

Mar 4

A

Maccabi Haifa

W

85

77

3

14

W 1

76

82

Mar 1

H

Hapoel Jerusalem

L

80

87

2

14

L 4

82

82

Feb 22

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

63

107

2

13

L 3

70

101

Feb 13

A

Hapoel Gilboa Galil

L

79

92

2

12

L 2

85

97

Feb 7

A

Ironi Nes Ziona

L

71

76

2

11

L 1

74

79

Feb 4

A

Maccabi Rishon LeZion

W

93

91

2

10

W 1

90

90

Jan 31

H

Maccabi Rishon LeZion

L

88

110

1

10

L 5

85

109

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Beer Sheva are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 10

A

Ironi Nes Ziona

L

78

85

8

8

L 1

82

88

Mar 7

H

Maccabi Haifa

W

94

86

8

7

W 2

84

92

Mar 3

H

Hapoel Gilboa Galil

W

83

60

7

7

W 1

89

63

Feb 5

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

74

100

6

7

L 2

82

94

Feb 1

A

Hapoel Jerusalem

L

66

94

6

6

L 1

68

89

Jan 24

A

Maccabi Rishon LeZion

W

70

62

6

5

W 2

68

61

Jan 3

H

Bnei Herzliya

W

94

86

5

5

W 1

91

83

Dec 30

A

Hapoel Haifa

L

91

101

4

5

L 4

88

95

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ironi Nahariya and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hapoel Beer Sheva.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hapoel Beer Sheva and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ironi Nahariya.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ironi Nahariya (in the first graph) and by Hapoel Beer Sheva in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ironi Nahariya will expected to score 82 points and the Hapoel Beer Sheva 90 points. The total points line estimated to be at 172.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Ironi Nahariya

Hapoel Beer Sheva

FG%

0.53

0.50

ASS

15.30

19.50

DRB

21.90

22.30

AST-TO

1.25

1.42

TRB

27.80

36.30

FTM

16.30

13.40

BL

1.90

4.10

FTA

20.80

18.90

PF-Fewer

17.70

23.70

ST

4.30

10.30

TO-Fewer

12.20

13.70

Ftper

0.78

0.71

ORBper

0.27

0.63

ORB

5.90

14.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Ironi Ness Ziona at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Ironi Ness Ziona for Israeli Super League, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.1

1.92

Ironi Ness Ziona

6.5

2.09

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

-12.5

-1.50

Ironi Ness Ziona HC

+12.5

1.50

Point Line

164.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

H

Hapoel Tel Aviv

W

80

77

14

3

W 1

81

83

Feb 27

A

Hapoel Eilat

L

85

91

13

3

L 1

84

86

Feb 22

H

Ironi Nahariya

W

107

63

13

2

W 7

95

67

Feb 20

H

Bnei Herzliya

W

98

75

12

2

W 6

95

72

Feb 14

H

Hapoel Holon

W

100

81

11

2

W 5

102

80

Feb 7

H

Maccabi Rishon LeZion

W

105

77

10

2

W 4

102

76

Feb 5

H

Hapoel Be’er Sheva

W

100

74

9

2

W 3

103

74

Feb 3

H

Maccabi Haifa

W

95

60

8

2

W 2

85

64

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ironi Ness Ziona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 10

H

Hapoel Be’er Sheva

W

85

78

8

7

W 2

87

78

Mar 4

H

Hapoel Tel Aviv

W

76

66

7

7

W 1

77

71

Feb 28

A

Bnei Herzliya

L

79

82

6

7

L 2

76

79

Feb 13

H

Hapoel Eilat

L

84

89

6

6

L 1

84

84

Feb 7

H

Ironi Nahariya

W

76

71

6

5

W 5

67

76

Feb 3

A

Hapoel Holon

W

92

90

5

5

W 4

94

88

Dec 31

H

Maccabi Haifa

W

80

76

4

5

W 3

72

81

Dec 28

A

Hapoel Jerusalem

W

99

83

3

5

W 2

102

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ironi Ness Ziona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ironi Ness Ziona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv (in the first graph) and by Ironi Ness Ziona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Maccabi Tel Aviv will expected to score 84 points and the Ironi Ness Ziona 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Ironi Ness Ziona

FG%

0.58

0.48

ASS

21.00

18.10

DRB

26.60

27.70

AST-TO

1.64

1.30

TRB

35.30

39.10

FTM

16.40

16.50

BL

3.20

2.10

FTA

20.90

23.10

PF-Fewer

19.90

19.50

ST

7.90

5.90

TO-Fewer

12.80

13.90

Ftper

0.79

0.71

ORBper

0.32

0.42

ORB

8.60

11.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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