2021 03 13 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Reggiana vs Trieste at 13 March 2021
Brindisi vs Virtus Bologna at 13 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Reggiana vs Trieste at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Trieste for Serie A, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Reggiana

1.75

3.48

Trieste

2.1

1.40

Reggiana HC

-2.5

6.00

Trieste HC

+2.5

-6.00

Point Line

156.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reggiana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

A

Universo Treviso

L

72

78

7

13

L 4

66

75

Feb 28

A

Germani Basket Brescia

L

79

89

7

12

L 3

78

88

Feb 7

H

Virtus Bologna

L

62

89

7

11

L 2

66

84

Feb 1

A

Enel Brindisi

L

70

79

7

10

L 1

73

74

Jan 23

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

83

74

7

9

W 1

85

78

Jan 17

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

73

102

6

9

L 5

80

94

Jan 10

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

75

95

6

8

L 4

80

96

Jan 6

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

69

78

6

7

L 3

71

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Trieste are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

H

Red October Cantu

W

82

79

10

10

W 1

81

81

Feb 27

A

Enel Brindisi

L

74

81

9

10

L 2

77

76

Feb 7

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

78

81

9

9

L 1

77

80

Jan 31

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

W

100

81

9

8

W 2

110

74

Jan 27

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

108

83

8

8

W 1

102

83

Jan 24

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

82

103

7

8

L 1

80

91

Jan 17

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

101

80

7

7

W 4

95

75

Jan 10

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

82

69

6

7

W 3

81

71

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reggiana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Trieste.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Trieste and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reggiana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Reggiana (in the first graph) and by Trieste in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Reggiana will expected to score 77 points and the Trieste 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Reggiana

Trieste

FG%

0.50

0.54

ASS

15.10

18.10

DRB

24.40

26.20

AST-TO

1.10

1.32

TRB

32.50

34.30

FTM

14.90

10.10

BL

2.10

2.30

FTA

19.10

14.80

PF-Fewer

20.10

18.80

ST

6.40

7.10

TO-Fewer

13.70

13.70

Ftper

0.78

0.68

ORBper

0.33

0.31

ORB

8.10

8.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Brindisi vs Virtus Bologna at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brindisi and Virtus Bologna for Serie A, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Brindisi

2.75

1.89

Virtus Bologna

1.45

2.12

Brindisi HC

+5.5

-1.50

Virtus Bologna HC

-5.5

1.50

Point Line

167.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brindisi are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

95

70

15

5

W 3

94

72

Feb 27

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

81

74

14

5

W 2

83

74

Feb 7

A

Universo Treviso

W

108

90

13

5

W 1

99

87

Feb 4

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

74

76

12

5

L 1

70

76

Feb 1

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

79

70

12

4

W 1

80

75

Jan 17

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

77

89

11

4

L 1

82

90

Jan 3

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

74

73

11

3

W 1

76

77

Dec 27

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

94

96

10

3

L 2

88

90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 6

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

77

72

14

6

W 4

82

72

Feb 27

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

76

13

6

W 3

80

76

Feb 7

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

89

62

12

6

W 2

90

66

Jan 30

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

88

75

11

6

W 1

82

71

Jan 23

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

89

90

10

6

L 1

88

89

Jan 17

A

Red October Cantu

W

91

82

10

5

W 3

90

84

Jan 9

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

92

85

9

5

W 2

94

90

Dec 30

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

100

80

8

5

W 1

100

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brindisi and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brindisi.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brindisi (in the first graph) and by Virtus Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brindisi will expected to score 81 points and the Virtus Bologna 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Brindisi

Virtus Bologna

FG%

0.54

0.56

ASS

16.30

22.80

DRB

25.50

26.10

AST-TO

1.44

1.63

TRB

35.50

34.90

FTM

16.40

13.60

BL

2.40

2.50

FTA

21.80

18.30

PF-Fewer

17.60

20.00

ST

6.30

8.00

TO-Fewer

11.30

14.00

Ftper

0.75

0.74

ORBper

0.39

0.34

ORB

10.00

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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