2021 03 13 Spain’s Liga ACB

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Joventut Badalona vs Obradoiro at 13 March 2021
Barcelona vs Zaragoza at 13 March 2021
Unicaja Malaga vs Gran Canaria at 13 March 2021
Gipuzkoa vs Valencia at 14 March 2021
Estudiantes vs Bilbao at 14 March 2021
San Pablo Burgos vs Tenerife at 14 March 2021
Manresa vs Fuenlabrada at 14 March 2021
Real Betis vs Andorra at 14 March 2021
Baskonia vs Real Madrid at 14 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Joventut Badalona vs Obradoiro at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Obradoiro for Liga ACB, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Joventut Badalona	1.25	1.29
Obradoiro	4	4.49
Joventut Badalona HC	-8.5	-8.00
Obradoiro HC	+8.5	8.00
Point Line	169.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 6	A	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	W	100	95	13	10	W 1	94	96
Feb 28	H	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	62	80	12	10	L 1	69	76
Feb 7	A	UCAM Murcia	W	91	84	12	9	W 2	89	85
Jan 30	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	80	75	11	9	W 1	79	76
Jan 16	H	Acunsa GBC	L	90	94	10	9	L 4	85	104
Jan 10	A	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	85	96	10	8	L 3	83	100
Jan 4	H	Valencia Basket	L	80	91	10	7	L 2	82	86
Dec 27	H	San Pablo Burgos	L	78	95	10	6	L 1	80	89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Obradoiro are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 7	H	Baskonia	L	78	87	7	15	L 5	83	86
Mar 3	H	Movistar Estudiantes	L	87	91	7	14	L 4	84	94
Feb 28	H	Iberostar Tenerife	L	71	97	7	13	L 3	74	90
Feb 9	A	MoraBanc Andorra	L	71	90	7	12	L 2	74	94
Feb 6	A	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	L	70	83	7	11	L 1	65	84
Jan 30	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	80	72	7	10	W 1	76	75
Dec 27	A	UCAM Murcia	L	76	93	6	10	L 1	74	94
Dec 20	H	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	W	102	91	6	9	W 1	95	92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Obradoiro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Obradoiro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Obradoiro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 84 points and the Obradoiro 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Joventut Badalona	Obradoiro
FG%	0.55	0.54
ASS	15.50	15.10
DRB	18.80	20.30
AST-TO	1.32	1.09
TRB	27.80	28.90
FTM	13.70	13.10
BL	2.50	2.20
FTA	17.40	16.80
PF-Fewer	20.90	19.30
ST	8.20	6.00
TO-Fewer	11.70	13.80
Ftper	0.79	0.78
ORBper	0.48	0.42
ORB	9.00	8.60

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Barcelona vs Zaragoza at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Zaragoza for Liga ACB, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Barcelona	1.09	3.15
Zaragoza	7.5	1.46
Barcelona HC	-14.5	5.50
Zaragoza HC	+14.5	-5.50
Point Line	164.5	161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Feb 28	A	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	80	62	19	3	W 10	78	60
Feb 6	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	90	73	18	3	W 9	85	76
Jan 31	H	UCAM Murcia	W	92	63	17	3	W 8	90	64
Jan 24	A	Acunsa GBC	W	110	68	16	3	W 7	104	75
Jan 9	A	Manresa	W	99	76	15	3	W 6	95	76
Jan 3	A	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	83	67	14	3	W 5	82	68
Dec 27	A	Real Madrid	W	87	82	13	3	W 4	95	78
Dec 20	H	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	88	74	12	3	W 3	86	72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 6	H	Divina Seguros Joventut	L	95	100	10	14	L 1	92	98
Feb 28	A	Coosur Real Betis	W	85	82	10	13	W 3	83	87
Feb 6	H	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	W	83	70	9	13	W 2	80	72
Feb 3	A	Movistar Estudiantes	W	79	73	8	13	W 1	77	75
Jan 31	A	Baskonia	L	61	89	7	13	L 1	65	88
Jan 23	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	96	73	7	12	W 3	91	76
Jan 16	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	105	85	6	12	W 2	103	86
Jan 2	H	Coosur Real Betis	W	96	95	5	12	W 1	94	101

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Barcelona (in the first graph) and by Zaragoza in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Barcelona will expected to score 86 points and the Zaragoza 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Var	Barcelona	Zaragoza
FG%	0.47	0.54
ASS	15.50	16.00
DRB	18.70	23.40
AST-TO	1.12	1.24
TRB	28.10	30.60
FTM	13.40	15.30
BL	2.50	2.60
FTA	17.70	20.90
PF-Fewer	20.40	21.00
ST	8.20	6.50
TO-Fewer	13.90	12.90
Ftper	0.76	0.73
ORBper	0.50	0.31
ORB	9.40	7.20

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Unicaja Malaga vs Gran Canaria at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and Gran Canaria for Liga ACB, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Unicaja Malaga	1.36	1.39
Gran Canaria	3.2	3.53
Unicaja Malaga HC	-6.5	-6.50
Gran Canaria HC	+6.5	6.50
Point Line	167.5	163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Feb 27	H	Movistar Estudiantes	W	91	77	11	12	W 2	88	79
Feb 7	A	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	85	68	10	12	W 1	84	69
Jan 31	H	Valencia Basket	L	85	89	9	12	L 6	87	84
Jan 23	A	Coosur Real Betis	L	75	78	9	11	L 5	73	83
Jan 16	A	Manresa	L	83	90	9	10	L 4	80	90
Jan 10	H	Baskonia	L	79	91	9	9	L 3	84	90
Jan 3	A	San Pablo Burgos	L	83	95	9	8	L 2	85	89
Dec 29	H	Coosur Real Betis	L	111	114	9	7	L 1	108	121

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 6	H	Movistar Estudiantes	W	97	94	9	14	W 2	94	97
Feb 6	H	Manresa	W	83	77	8	14	W 1	80	77
Jan 31	A	Real Madrid	L	80	81	7	14	L 3	87	77
Jan 23	A	Montakit Fuenlabrada	L	81	102	7	13	L 2	80	103
Jan 16	H	Iberostar Tenerife	L	87	108	7	12	L 1	90	100
Jan 10	H	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	96	85	7	11	W 1	94	83
Jan 2	A	Valencia Basket	L	85	101	6	11	L 1	87	95
Dec 27	A	Manresa	W	71	64	6	10	W 4	68	64

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unicaja Malaga (in the first graph) and by Gran Canaria in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unicaja Malaga will expected to score 85 points and the Gran Canaria 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Var	Unicaja Malaga	Gran Canaria
FG%	0.55	0.52
ASS	16.90	15.10
DRB	22.70	20.80
AST-TO	1.18	1.23
TRB	32.60	29.60
FTM	14.20	11.80
BL	2.30	2.80
FTA	18.30	16.50
PF-Fewer	19.00	19.50
ST	6.20	7.60
TO-Fewer	14.30	12.30
Ftper	0.78	0.72
ORBper	0.44	0.42
ORB	10.00	8.70

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Gipuzkoa vs Valencia at 14 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gipuzkoa and Valencia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 14 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Gipuzkoa	5.4	3.07
Valencia	1.15	1.48
Gipuzkoa HC	+11.5	5.50
Valencia HC	-11.5	-5.50
Point Line	165.5	163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 6	A	Montakit Fuenlabrada	L	74	78	5	18	L 2	73	79
Feb 27	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	L	74	97	5	17	L 1	70	101
Feb 10	H	Movistar Estudiantes	W	81	79	5	16	W 1	79	81
Jan 24	H	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	68	110	4	16	L 1	76	104
Jan 16	A	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	94	90	4	15	W 2	92	88
Jan 10	H	Iberostar Tenerife	W	89	87	3	15	W 1	92	80
Jan 2	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	L	80	81	2	15	L 4	76	84
Dec 29	H	Manresa	L	71	78	2	14	L 3	68	78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 7	H	Manresa	W	112	82	17	7	W 1	107	82
Feb 28	A	MoraBanc Andorra	L	72	84	16	7	L 1	75	88
Feb 6	H	Coosur Real Betis	W	89	81	16	6	W 12	87	86
Jan 31	A	Unicaja	W	89	85	15	6	W 11	89	81
Jan 24	H	Baskonia	W	83	61	14	6	W 10	89	60
Jan 17	A	San Pablo Burgos	W	83	78	13	6	W 9	85	73
Jan 9	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	106	73	12	6	W 8	100	76
Jan 4	A	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	91	80	11	6	W 7	89	78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gipuzkoa (in the first graph) and by Valencia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gipuzkoa will expected to score 77 points and the Valencia 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Var	Gipuzkoa	Valencia
FG%	0.48	0.59
ASS	14.00	19.70
DRB	20.00	22.40
AST-TO	1.01	1.52
TRB	29.90	29.80
FTM	10.20	15.10
BL	1.90	1.70
FTA	14.50	18.20
PF-Fewer	20.20	16.20
ST	8.40	6.50
TO-Fewer	13.80	13.00
Ftper	0.71	0.83
ORBper	0.50	0.33
ORB	10.00	7.40

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Estudiantes vs Bilbao at 14 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Estudiantes and Bilbao for Liga ACB, which will take place on 14 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Estudiantes	1.45	1.81
Bilbao	2.75	2.24
Estudiantes HC	-5.5	-2.50
Bilbao HC	+5.5	2.50
Point Line	162.5	161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Estudiantes are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 6	A	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	94	97	6	16	L 1	92	101
Mar 3	A	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	W	91	87	6	15	W 1	88	90
Feb 27	A	Unicaja	L	77	91	5	15	L 7	77	87
Feb 10	A	Acunsa GBC	L	79	81