2021 03 13 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Joventut Badalona vs Obradoiro at 13 March 2021
Barcelona vs Zaragoza at 13 March 2021
Unicaja Malaga vs Gran Canaria at 13 March 2021
Gipuzkoa vs Valencia at 14 March 2021
Estudiantes vs Bilbao at 14 March 2021
San Pablo Burgos vs Tenerife at 14 March 2021
Manresa vs Fuenlabrada at 14 March 2021
Real Betis vs Andorra at 14 March 2021
Baskonia vs Real Madrid at 14 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Joventut Badalona vs Obradoiro at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Obradoiro for Liga ACB, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Joventut Badalona

1.25

1.29

Obradoiro

4

4.49

Joventut Badalona HC

-8.5

-8.00

Obradoiro HC

+8.5

8.00

Point Line

169.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 6

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

100

95

13

10

W 1

94

96

Feb 28

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

62

80

12

10

L 1

69

76

Feb 7

A

UCAM Murcia

W

91

84

12

9

W 2

89

85

Jan 30

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

80

75

11

9

W 1

79

76

Jan 16

H

Acunsa GBC

L

90

94

10

9

L 4

85

104

Jan 10

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

85

96

10

8

L 3

83

100

Jan 4

H

Valencia Basket

L

80

91

10

7

L 2

82

86

Dec 27

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

78

95

10

6

L 1

80

89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Obradoiro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

H

Baskonia

L

78

87

7

15

L 5

83

86

Mar 3

H

Movistar Estudiantes

L

87

91

7

14

L 4

84

94

Feb 28

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

71

97

7

13

L 3

74

90

Feb 9

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

71

90

7

12

L 2

74

94

Feb 6

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

70

83

7

11

L 1

65

84

Jan 30

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

80

72

7

10

W 1

76

75

Dec 27

A

UCAM Murcia

L

76

93

6

10

L 1

74

94

Dec 20

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

102

91

6

9

W 1

95

92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Obradoiro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Obradoiro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Obradoiro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 84 points and the Obradoiro 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Joventut Badalona

Obradoiro

FG%

0.55

0.54

ASS

15.50

15.10

DRB

18.80

20.30

AST-TO

1.32

1.09

TRB

27.80

28.90

FTM

13.70

13.10

BL

2.50

2.20

FTA

17.40

16.80

PF-Fewer

20.90

19.30

ST

8.20

6.00

TO-Fewer

11.70

13.80

Ftper

0.79

0.78

ORBper

0.48

0.42

ORB

9.00

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Barcelona vs Zaragoza at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Zaragoza for Liga ACB, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Barcelona

1.09

3.15

Zaragoza

7.5

1.46

Barcelona HC

-14.5

5.50

Zaragoza HC

+14.5

-5.50

Point Line

164.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

80

62

19

3

W 10

78

60

Feb 6

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

90

73

18

3

W 9

85

76

Jan 31

H

UCAM Murcia

W

92

63

17

3

W 8

90

64

Jan 24

A

Acunsa GBC

W

110

68

16

3

W 7

104

75

Jan 9

A

Manresa

W

99

76

15

3

W 6

95

76

Jan 3

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

83

67

14

3

W 5

82

68

Dec 27

A

Real Madrid

W

87

82

13

3

W 4

95

78

Dec 20

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

88

74

12

3

W 3

86

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 6

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

95

100

10

14

L 1

92

98

Feb 28

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

85

82

10

13

W 3

83

87

Feb 6

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

83

70

9

13

W 2

80

72

Feb 3

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

79

73

8

13

W 1

77

75

Jan 31

A

Baskonia

L

61

89

7

13

L 1

65

88

Jan 23

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

96

73

7

12

W 3

91

76

Jan 16

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

105

85

6

12

W 2

103

86

Jan 2

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

96

95

5

12

W 1

94

101

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Barcelona (in the first graph) and by Zaragoza in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Barcelona will expected to score 86 points and the Zaragoza 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Barcelona

Zaragoza

FG%

0.47

0.54

ASS

15.50

16.00

DRB

18.70

23.40

AST-TO

1.12

1.24

TRB

28.10

30.60

FTM

13.40

15.30

BL

2.50

2.60

FTA

17.70

20.90

PF-Fewer

20.40

21.00

ST

8.20

6.50

TO-Fewer

13.90

12.90

Ftper

0.76

0.73

ORBper

0.50

0.31

ORB

9.40

7.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Unicaja Malaga vs Gran Canaria at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and Gran Canaria for Liga ACB, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unicaja Malaga

1.36

1.39

Gran Canaria

3.2

3.53

Unicaja Malaga HC

-6.5

-6.50

Gran Canaria HC

+6.5

6.50

Point Line

167.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

91

77

11

12

W 2

88

79

Feb 7

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

85

68

10

12

W 1

84

69

Jan 31

H

Valencia Basket

L

85

89

9

12

L 6

87

84

Jan 23

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

75

78

9

11

L 5

73

83

Jan 16

A

Manresa

L

83

90

9

10

L 4

80

90

Jan 10

H

Baskonia

L

79

91

9

9

L 3

84

90

Jan 3

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

83

95

9

8

L 2

85

89

Dec 29

H

Coosur Real Betis

L

111

114

9

7

L 1

108

121

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 6

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

97

94

9

14

W 2

94

97

Feb 6

H

Manresa

W

83

77

8

14

W 1

80

77

Jan 31

A

Real Madrid

L

80

81

7

14

L 3

87

77

Jan 23

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

81

102

7

13

L 2

80

103

Jan 16

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

87

108

7

12

L 1

90

100

Jan 10

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

96

85

7

11

W 1

94

83

Jan 2

A

Valencia Basket

L

85

101

6

11

L 1

87

95

Dec 27

A

Manresa

W

71

64

6

10

W 4

68

64

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unicaja Malaga (in the first graph) and by Gran Canaria in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unicaja Malaga will expected to score 85 points and the Gran Canaria 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Unicaja Malaga

Gran Canaria

FG%

0.55

0.52

ASS

16.90

15.10

DRB

22.70

20.80

AST-TO

1.18

1.23

TRB

32.60

29.60

FTM

14.20

11.80

BL

2.30

2.80

FTA

18.30

16.50

PF-Fewer

19.00

19.50

ST

6.20

7.60

TO-Fewer

14.30

12.30

Ftper

0.78

0.72

ORBper

0.44

0.42

ORB

10.00

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Gipuzkoa vs Valencia at 14 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gipuzkoa and Valencia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 14 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gipuzkoa

5.4

3.07

Valencia

1.15

1.48

Gipuzkoa HC

+11.5

5.50

Valencia HC

-11.5

-5.50

Point Line

165.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 6

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

74

78

5

18

L 2

73

79

Feb 27

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

74

97

5

17

L 1

70

101

Feb 10

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

81

79

5

16

W 1

79

81

Jan 24

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

68

110

4

16

L 1

76

104

Jan 16

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

94

90

4

15

W 2

92

88

Jan 10

H

Iberostar Tenerife

W

89

87

3

15

W 1

92

80

Jan 2

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

80

81

2

15

L 4

76

84

Dec 29

H

Manresa

L

71

78

2

14

L 3

68

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

H

Manresa

W

112

82

17

7

W 1

107

82

Feb 28

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

72

84

16

7

L 1

75

88

Feb 6

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

89

81

16

6

W 12

87

86

Jan 31

A

Unicaja

W

89

85

15

6

W 11

89

81

Jan 24

H

Baskonia

W

83

61

14

6

W 10

89

60

Jan 17

A

San Pablo Burgos

W

83

78

13

6

W 9

85

73

Jan 9

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

106

73

12

6

W 8

100

76

Jan 4

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

91

80

11

6

W 7

89

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gipuzkoa (in the first graph) and by Valencia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gipuzkoa will expected to score 77 points and the Valencia 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gipuzkoa

Valencia

FG%

0.48

0.59

ASS

14.00

19.70

DRB

20.00

22.40

AST-TO

1.01

1.52

TRB

29.90

29.80

FTM

10.20

15.10

BL

1.90

1.70

FTA

14.50

18.20

PF-Fewer

20.20

16.20

ST

8.40

6.50

TO-Fewer

13.80

13.00

Ftper

0.71

0.83

ORBper

0.50

0.33

ORB

10.00

7.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Estudiantes vs Bilbao at 14 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Estudiantes and Bilbao for Liga ACB, which will take place on 14 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Estudiantes

1.45

1.81

Bilbao

2.75

2.24

Estudiantes HC

-5.5

-2.50

Bilbao HC

+5.5

2.50

Point Line

162.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Estudiantes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 6

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

94

97

6

16

L 1

92

101

Mar 3

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

91

87

6

15

W 1

88

90

Feb 27

A

Unicaja

L

77

91

5

15

L 7

77

87

Feb 10

A

Acunsa GBC

L

79

81