2021 03 13 Turkey Super League

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Darussafaka vs Ormanspor at 13 March 2021
Tofas vs Besiktas at 13 March 2021
Petkim Spor vs Fethiye Belediye at 13 March 2021
Afyon Belediye vs Karsiyaka at 13 March 2021
Bahcesehir Koleji vs Fenerbahce at 14 March 2021
Buyukcekmece vs Bursaspor at 14 March 2021
Anadolu Efes vs Gaziantep at 14 March 2021
Turk Telekom vs Galatasaray at 14 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Darussafaka vs Ormanspor at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Darussafaka and Ormanspor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Darussafaka	1.18	1.29
Ormanspor	4.6	4.43
Darussafaka HC	-10.5	-7.50
Ormanspor HC	+10.5	7.50
Point Line	160.5	156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Darussafaka are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 6	A	Galatasaray	W	98	87	12	11	W 1	93	88
Feb 28	H	Fenerbahce	L	64	66	11	11	L 1	68	61
Feb 10	A	Bursaspor	W	70	68	11	10	W 2	68	70
Feb 6	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	W	86	77	10	10	W 1	94	73
Feb 3	A	Socar Spor	L	70	78	9	10	L 2	70	77
Jan 30	A	Afyon	L	79	80	9	9	L 1	75	78
Jan 23	H	Buyukcekmece	W	85	82	9	8	W 3	80	82
Jan 17	A	Bahcesehir	W	85	76	8	8	W 2	84	76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ormanspor are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 6	H	Tofas	W	77	76	6	17	W 1	76	72
Feb 27	A	Socar Spor	L	76	83	5	17	L 7	76	82
Feb 11	H	Gaziantep	L	81	82	5	16	L 6	89	87
Feb 7	A	Fethiye	L	89	98	5	15	L 5	82	104
Feb 1	H	Besiktas	L	68	92	5	14	L 4	69	89
Jan 23	A	Anadolu Efes	L	75	95	5	13	L 3	81	86
Jan 16	A	Galatasaray	L	87	89	5	12	L 2	82	90
Jan 9	H	Fenerbahce	L	63	72	5	11	L 1	67	67

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Darussafaka and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ormanspor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ormanspor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Darussafaka.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Darussafaka (in the first graph) and by Ormanspor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Darussafaka will expected to score 83 points and the Ormanspor 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Darussafaka	Ormanspor
FG%	0.50	0.52
ASS	18.20	18.00
DRB	21.40	20.60
AST-TO	1.58	1.58
TRB	32.80	28.00
FTM	16.30	14.20
BL	2.90	2.50
FTA	20.70	19.20
PF-Fewer	23.30	16.50
ST	8.20	4.50
TO-Fewer	11.50	11.40
Ftper	0.79	0.74
ORBper	0.53	0.36
ORB	11.40	7.50

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Tofas vs Besiktas at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tofas and Besiktas for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Tofas	1.5	2.19
Besiktas	2.55	1.84
Tofas HC	-4.5	2.00
Besiktas HC	+4.5	-2.00
Point Line	167.5	163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 6	A	Ormanspor	L	76	77	13	10	L 1	70	82
Feb 27	H	Galatasaray	W	98	89	13	9	W 3	93	90
Feb 10	A	Fenerbahce	W	84	81	12	9	W 2	90	75
Feb 7	H	Bursaspor	W	84	77	11	9	W 1	81	80
Jan 31	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	71	90	10	9	L 1	77	86
Jan 27	H	Socar Spor	W	88	80	10	8	W 1	88	79
Jan 24	H	Afyon	L	83	85	9	8	L 1	79	83
Jan 16	A	Buyukcekmece	W	88	75	9	7	W 4	83	75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Besiktas are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 6	H	Socar Spor	W	96	94	13	10	W 3	96	93
Feb 28	A	Gaziantep	W	84	77	12	10	W 2	92	82
Feb 10	H	Fethiye	W	76	65	11	10	W 1	70	69
Feb 7	A	Anadolu Efes	L	80	84	10	10	L 1	87	76
Feb 1	A	Ormanspor	W	92	68	10	9	W 3	85	73
Jan 23	H	Galatasaray	W	82	64	9	9	W 2	78	65
Jan 17	A	Fenerbahce	W	92	83	8	9	W 1	98	77
Jan 9	H	Bursaspor	L	69	84	7	9	L 2	67	87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Besiktas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Besiktas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tofas (in the first graph) and by Besiktas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tofas will expected to score 82 points and the Besiktas 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Var	Tofas	Besiktas
FG%	0.56	0.53
ASS	21.00	19.30
DRB	22.00	22.70
AST-TO	1.78	1.50
TRB	30.70	33.30
FTM	12.80	15.10
BL	2.90	3.00
FTA	16.70	19.40
PF-Fewer	21.00	21.20
ST	8.00	6.50
TO-Fewer	11.80	12.90
Ftper	0.77	0.78
ORBper	0.39	0.47
ORB	8.60	10.60

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Petkim Spor vs Fethiye Belediye at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Petkim Spor and Fethiye Belediye for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Petkim Spor	1.2	1.54
Fethiye Belediye	4.35	2.84
Petkim Spor HC	-9.5	-4.50
Fethiye Belediye HC	+9.5	4.50
Point Line	163.5	159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Petkim Spor are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 6	A	Besiktas	L	94	96	9	14	L 1	95	93
Feb 27	H	Ormanspor	W	83	76	9	13	W 2	77	82
Feb 10	A	Galatasaray	W	89	65	8	13	W 1	84	66
Feb 7	H	Fenerbahce	L	67	80	7	13	L 1	72	74
Feb 3	H	Darussafaka	W	78	70	7	12	W 1	81	70
Jan 30	A	Bursaspor	L	89	95	6	12	L 4	86	98
Jan 27	A	Tofas	L	80	88	6	11	L 3	79	83
Jan 24	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	75	85	6	10	L 2	82	81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fethiye Belediye are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 7	H	Gaziantep	L	60	90	5	18	L 3	66	96
Feb 28	A	Anadolu Efes	L	85	101	5	17	L 2	92	92
Feb 10	A	Besiktas	L	65	76	5	16	L 1	66	74
Feb 7	H	Ormanspor	W	98	89	5	15	W 1	90	95
Jan 30	A	Galatasaray	L	68	71	4	15	L 4	64	72
Jan 24	H	Fenerbahce	L	86	93	4	14	L 3	92	86
Jan 15	A	Bursaspor	L	84	89	4	13	L 2	81	92
Jan 9	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	78	86	4	12	L 1	85	82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Petkim Spor and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fethiye Belediye.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fethiye Belediye and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Petkim Spor.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Petkim Spor (in the first graph) and by Fethiye Belediye in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Petkim Spor will expected to score 84 points and the Fethiye Belediye 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Var	Petkim Spor	Fethiye Belediye
FG%	0.56	0.51
ASS	20.70	20.10
DRB	21.80	21.90
AST-TO	1.68	1.55
TRB	31.10	30.60
FTM	12.50	11.90
BL	2.00	2.30
FTA	17.50	16.30
PF-Fewer	21.40	19.30
ST	5.70	6.00
TO-Fewer	12.30	13.00
Ftper	0.72	0.73
ORBper	0.43	0.40
ORB	9.30	8.70

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Afyon Belediye vs Karsiyaka at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Afyon Belediye and Karsiyaka for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Afyon Belediye	3	2.50
Karsiyaka	1.38	1.67
Afyon Belediye HC	+5.5	3.50
Karsiyaka HC	-5.5	-3.50
Point Line	162.5	164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Afyon Belediye are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 7	H	Anadolu Efes	W	103	85	12	11	W 1	112	77
Feb 28	A	Buyukcekmece	L	83	95	11	11	L 3	78	95
Feb 9	H	Bahcesehir	L	77	89	11	10	L 2	76	89
Feb 6	A	Turk Telekom	L	86	89	11	9	L 1	85	96
Jan 30	H	Darussafaka	W	80	79	11	8	W 4	83	79
Jan 24	A	Tofas	W	85	83	10	8	W 3	84	78
Jan 16	H	Socar Spor	W	94	76	9	8	W 2	94	75
Jan 10	A	Gaziantep	W	88	84	8	8	W 1	96	89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 6	H	Buyukcekmece	W	117	82	19	4	W 3	110	82
Feb 27	A	Bahcesehir	W	96	83	18	4	W 2	95	83
Feb 9	H	Turk Telekom	W	80	69	17	4	W 1	79	75
Feb 6	A	Darussafaka	L	77	86	16	4	L 1	80	86
Jan 31	H	Tofas	W	90	71	16	3	W 11	89	67
Jan 24	A	Socar Spor	W	85	75	15	3	W 10	85	74
Jan 17	H	Gaziantep	W	72	65	14	3	W 9	79	69
Jan 9	A	Fethiye	W	86	78	13	3	W 8	79	83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Afyon Belediye and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Afyon Belediye.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Afyon Belediye (in the first graph) and by Karsiyaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Afyon Belediye will expected to score 79 points and the Karsiyaka 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Var	Afyon Belediye	Karsiyaka
FG%	0.55	0.56
ASS	20.40	19.90
DRB	22.10	24.30
AST-TO	1.45	1.69
TRB	32.00	33.80
FTM	11.70	17.60
BL	2.70	2.00
FTA	15.70	24.10
PF-Fewer	19.10	19.00
ST	7.10	6.40
TO-Fewer	14.10	11.80
Ftper	0.74	0.73
ORBper	0.45	0.39
ORB	9.90	9.50

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Bahcesehir Koleji vs Fenerbahce at 14 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bahcesehir Koleji and Fenerbahce for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 14 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Bahcesehir Koleji	6.2	1.98
Fenerbahce	1.11	2.02
Bahcesehir Koleji HC	+12.5	-1.00
Fenerbahce HC	-12.5	1.00
Point Line	162.5	161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bahcesehir Koleji are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 7	A	Bursaspor	L	64	67	8	15	L 2	62	70
Feb 27	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	83	96	8	14	L 1	90	91
Feb 9	A	Afyon	W	89	77	8	13	W 2	84	75
Feb 6	H	Buyukcekmece	W	83	74	7	13	W 1	78	74