2021 03 13 VTB United League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Kalev vs Unics at 13 March 2021
Lokomotiv Kuban vs Avtodor at 13 March 2021
Nizhny Novgorod vs Minsk at 14 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Kalev vs Unics at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Kalev and Unics for VTB United League, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Kalev

5

2.67

Unics

1.16

1.60

Kalev HC

+10.5

4.00

Unics HC

-10.5

-4.00

Point Line

156.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kalev are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

H

Avtodor

W

85

77

5

11

W 2

82

76

Mar 1

A

Astana

W

77

61

4

11

W 1

73

66

Feb 12

H

Parma

L

72

85

3

11

L 2

74

87

Feb 9

A

Parma

L

72

80

3

10

L 1

74

82

Feb 7

A

CSKA Moscow

W

107

102

3

9

W 1

116

89

Feb 1

H

Enisey

L

75

86

2

9

L 2

70

92

Jan 29

H

Zielona Gora

L

79

86

2

8

L 1

76

80

Jan 24

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

80

72

2

7

W 1

75

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

87

56

14

4

W 9

87

58

Feb 10

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

59

58

13

4

W 8

67

56

Feb 7

A

Avtodor

W

110

97

12

4

W 7

106

95

Jan 30

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

76

66

11

4

W 6

72

74

Jan 23

A

Nizhny Novgorod

W

91

66

10

4

W 5

91

68

Jan 17

A

BC Khimki

W

93

87

9

4

W 4

91

83

Jan 9

A

Parma

W

76

69

8

4

W 3

78

71

Jan 6

H

Zielona Gora

W

65

64

7

4

W 2

62

60

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kalev and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kalev.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Kalev (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Kalev will expected to score 76 points and the Unics 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Kalev

Unics

FG%

0.54

0.56

ASS

16.60

15.90

DRB

22.60

20.90

AST-TO

1.25

1.35

TRB

30.30

29.90

FTM

11.80

13.80

BL

1.90

1.70

FTA

16.30

18.00

PF-Fewer

19.90

21.70

ST

7.00

8.00

TO-Fewer

13.30

11.80

Ftper

0.72

0.76

ORBper

0.35

0.43

ORB

7.80

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Lokomotiv Kuban vs Avtodor at 13 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lokomotiv Kuban and Avtodor for VTB United League, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Lokomotiv Kuban

1.2

1.34

Avtodor

4.35

3.96

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

-9.5

-7.00

Avtodor HC

+9.5

7.00

Point Line

173.5

170.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

H

Enisey

W

100

98

10

6

W 2

94

105

Feb 8

A

BC Khimki

W

92

90

9

6

W 1

90

86

Jan 31

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

85

90

8

6

L 1

96

87

Jan 16

A

Nizhny Novgorod

W

94

73

8

5

W 1

94

75

Jan 9

A

Astana

L

82

86

7

5

L 2

78

93

Jan 3

H

BC Khimki

L

91

102

7

4

L 1

89

97

Dec 23

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

77

76

7

3

W 2

73

85

Dec 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

96

81

6

3

W 1

109

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Avtodor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

A

Kalev/Cramo

L

77

85

8

10

L 1

75

90

Feb 28

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

113

66

8

9

W 1

107

74

Feb 11

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

80

86

7

9

L 2

80

89

Feb 7

H

UNICS

L

97

110

7

8

L 1

106

110

Jan 31

A

Astana

W

92

83

7

7

W 1

87

90

Jan 23

A

Zielona Gora

L

64

77

6

7

L 2

61

72

Jan 18

H

CSKA Moscow

L

82

98

6

6

L 1

89

86

Jan 14

H

Kalev/Cramo

W

87

61

6

5

W 1

84

64

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Avtodor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Avtodor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban (in the first graph) and by Avtodor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Lokomotiv Kuban will expected to score 87 points and the Avtodor 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 172.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Lokomotiv Kuban

Avtodor

FG%

0.54

0.52

ASS

21.20

16.90

DRB

25.60

23.70

AST-TO

1.74

1.31

TRB

33.90

33.20

FTM

18.50

15.80

BL

3.50

2.50

FTA

24.10

21.00

PF-Fewer

20.90

20.70

ST

5.60

5.90

TO-Fewer

12.20

12.90

Ftper

0.77

0.75

ORBper

0.32

0.40

ORB

8.30

9.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Nizhny Novgorod vs Minsk at 14 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nizhny Novgorod and Minsk for VTB United League, which will take place on 14 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Nizhny Novgorod

1.05

1.33

Minsk

9

4.01

Nizhny Novgorod HC

-17.5

-7.00

Minsk HC

+17.5

7.00

Point Line

159.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nizhny Novgorod are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

H

Astana

W

75

73

9

7

W 1

71

79

Feb 27

A

UNICS

L

56

87

8

7

L 1

61

87

Feb 11

H

Avtodor

W

86

80

8

6

W 2

83

78

Feb 7

A

Zielona Gora

W

97

93

7

6

W 1

93

87

Feb 2

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

73

78

6

6

L 5

83

76

Jan 23

H

UNICS

L

66

91

6

5

L 4

72

91

Jan 16

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

73

94

6

4

L 3

70

86

Jan 9

A

Tsmoki Minsk

L

76

77

6

3

L 2

72

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Minsk are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

A

CSKA Moscow

L

67

101

2

14

L 6

72

88

Feb 28

A

Avtodor

L

66

113

2

13

L 5

64

111

Feb 7

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

73

99

2

12

L 4

83

96

Jan 30

H

UNICS

L

66

76

2

11

L 3

72

76

Jan 24

H

Kalev/Cramo

L

72

80

2

10

L 2

70

84

Jan 17

H

Zielona Gora

L

75

80

2

9

L 1

72

75

Jan 9

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

77

76

2

8

W 1

77

78

Dec 23

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

76

77

1

8

L 8

73

70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nizhny Novgorod and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Minsk.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Minsk and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nizhny Novgorod.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nizhny Novgorod (in the first graph) and by Minsk in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nizhny Novgorod will expected to score 82 points and the Minsk 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Nizhny Novgorod

Minsk

FG%

0.53

0.50

ASS

18.10

15.30

DRB

20.90

19.90

AST-TO

1.41

1.04

TRB

29.30

28.50

FTM

13.60

11.30

BL

1.60

1.40

FTA

18.80

15.50

PF-Fewer

23.50

22.40

ST

6.70

6.30

TO-Fewer

12.80

14.70

Ftper

0.72

0.73

ORBper

0.40

0.43

ORB

8.40

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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