BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Kalev vs Unics at 13 March 2021
Lokomotiv Kuban vs Avtodor at 13 March 2021
Nizhny Novgorod vs Minsk at 14 March 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
Kalev vs Unics at 13 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Kalev and Unics for VTB United League, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Kalev |
5 |
2.67 |
|
Unics |
1.16 |
1.60 |
|
Kalev HC |
+10.5 |
4.00 |
|
Unics HC |
-10.5 |
-4.00 |
|
Point Line |
156.5 |
160.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kalev are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 7 |
H |
Avtodor |
W |
85 |
77 |
5 |
11 |
W 2 |
82 |
76 |
|
Mar 1 |
A |
Astana |
W |
77 |
61 |
4 |
11 |
W 1 |
73 |
66 |
|
Feb 12 |
H |
Parma |
L |
72 |
85 |
3 |
11 |
L 2 |
74 |
87 |
|
Feb 9 |
A |
Parma |
L |
72 |
80 |
3 |
10 |
L 1 |
74 |
82 |
|
Feb 7 |
A |
CSKA Moscow |
W |
107 |
102 |
3 |
9 |
W 1 |
116 |
89 |
|
Feb 1 |
H |
Enisey |
L |
75 |
86 |
2 |
9 |
L 2 |
70 |
92 |
|
Jan 29 |
H |
Zielona Gora |
L |
79 |
86 |
2 |
8 |
L 1 |
76 |
80 |
|
Jan 24 |
A |
Tsmoki Minsk |
W |
80 |
72 |
2 |
7 |
W 1 |
75 |
80 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Feb 27 |
H |
Nizhny Novgorod |
W |
87 |
56 |
14 |
4 |
W 9 |
87 |
58 |
|
Feb 10 |
H |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
W |
59 |
58 |
13 |
4 |
W 8 |
67 |
56 |
|
Feb 7 |
A |
Avtodor |
W |
110 |
97 |
12 |
4 |
W 7 |
106 |
95 |
|
Jan 30 |
A |
Tsmoki Minsk |
W |
76 |
66 |
11 |
4 |
W 6 |
72 |
74 |
|
Jan 23 |
A |
Nizhny Novgorod |
W |
91 |
66 |
10 |
4 |
W 5 |
91 |
68 |
|
Jan 17 |
A |
BC Khimki |
W |
93 |
87 |
9 |
4 |
W 4 |
91 |
83 |
|
Jan 9 |
A |
Parma |
W |
76 |
69 |
8 |
4 |
W 3 |
78 |
71 |
|
Jan 6 |
H |
Zielona Gora |
W |
65 |
64 |
7 |
4 |
W 2 |
62 |
60 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kalev and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kalev.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Kalev (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Kalev will expected to score 76 points and the Unics 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Kalev |
Unics |
|
FG% |
0.54 |
0.56 |
|
ASS |
16.60 |
15.90 |
|
DRB |
22.60 |
20.90 |
|
AST-TO |
1.25 |
1.35 |
|
TRB |
30.30 |
29.90 |
|
FTM |
11.80 |
13.80 |
|
BL |
1.90 |
1.70 |
|
FTA |
16.30 |
18.00 |
|
PF-Fewer |
19.90 |
21.70 |
|
ST |
7.00 |
8.00 |
|
TO-Fewer |
13.30 |
11.80 |
|
Ftper |
0.72 |
0.76 |
|
ORBper |
0.35 |
0.43 |
|
ORB |
7.80 |
9.00 |
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Lokomotiv Kuban vs Avtodor at 13 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Lokomotiv Kuban and Avtodor for VTB United League, which will take place on 13 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Lokomotiv Kuban |
1.2 |
1.34 |
|
Avtodor |
4.35 |
3.96 |
|
Lokomotiv Kuban HC |
-9.5 |
-7.00 |
|
Avtodor HC |
+9.5 |
7.00 |
|
Point Line |
173.5 |
170.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Feb 27 |
H |
Enisey |
W |
100 |
98 |
10 |
6 |
W 2 |
94 |
105 |
|
Feb 8 |
A |
BC Khimki |
W |
92 |
90 |
9 |
6 |
W 1 |
90 |
86 |
|
Jan 31 |
A |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
L |
85 |
90 |
8 |
6 |
L 1 |
96 |
87 |
|
Jan 16 |
A |
Nizhny Novgorod |
W |
94 |
73 |
8 |
5 |
W 1 |
94 |
75 |
|
Jan 9 |
A |
Astana |
L |
82 |
86 |
7 |
5 |
L 2 |
78 |
93 |
|
Jan 3 |
H |
BC Khimki |
L |
91 |
102 |
7 |
4 |
L 1 |
89 |
97 |
|
Dec 23 |
H |
Tsmoki Minsk |
W |
77 |
76 |
7 |
3 |
W 2 |
73 |
85 |
|
Dec 13 |
H |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
W |
96 |
81 |
6 |
3 |
W 1 |
109 |
79 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Avtodor are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 7 |
A |
Kalev/Cramo |
L |
77 |
85 |
8 |
10 |
L 1 |
75 |
90 |
|
Feb 28 |
H |
Tsmoki Minsk |
W |
113 |
66 |
8 |
9 |
W 1 |
107 |
74 |
|
Feb 11 |
A |
Nizhny Novgorod |
L |
80 |
86 |
7 |
9 |
L 2 |
80 |
89 |
|
Feb 7 |
H |
UNICS |
L |
97 |
110 |
7 |
8 |
L 1 |
106 |
110 |
|
Jan 31 |
A |
Astana |
W |
92 |
83 |
7 |
7 |
W 1 |
87 |
90 |
|
Jan 23 |
A |
Zielona Gora |
L |
64 |
77 |
6 |
7 |
L 2 |
61 |
72 |
|
Jan 18 |
H |
CSKA Moscow |
L |
82 |
98 |
6 |
6 |
L 1 |
89 |
86 |
|
Jan 14 |
H |
Kalev/Cramo |
W |
87 |
61 |
6 |
5 |
W 1 |
84 |
64 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Avtodor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Avtodor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban (in the first graph) and by Avtodor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Lokomotiv Kuban will expected to score 87 points and the Avtodor 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 172.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
Avtodor |
|
FG% |
0.54 |
0.52 |
|
ASS |
21.20 |
16.90 |
|
DRB |
25.60 |
23.70 |
|
AST-TO |
1.74 |
1.31 |
|
TRB |
33.90 |
33.20 |
|
FTM |
18.50 |
15.80 |
|
BL |
3.50 |
2.50 |
|
FTA |
24.10 |
21.00 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.90 |
20.70 |
|
ST |
5.60 |
5.90 |
|
TO-Fewer |
12.20 |
12.90 |
|
Ftper |
0.77 |
0.75 |
|
ORBper |
0.32 |
0.40 |
|
ORB |
8.30 |
9.40 |
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Nizhny Novgorod vs Minsk at 14 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Nizhny Novgorod and Minsk for VTB United League, which will take place on 14 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Nizhny Novgorod |
1.05 |
1.33 |
|
Minsk |
9 |
4.01 |
|
Nizhny Novgorod HC |
-17.5 |
-7.00 |
|
Minsk HC |
+17.5 |
7.00 |
|
Point Line |
159.5 |
157.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nizhny Novgorod are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 7 |
H |
Astana |
W |
75 |
73 |
9 |
7 |
W 1 |
71 |
79 |
|
Feb 27 |
A |
UNICS |
L |
56 |
87 |
8 |
7 |
L 1 |
61 |
87 |
|
Feb 11 |
H |
Avtodor |
W |
86 |
80 |
8 |
6 |
W 2 |
83 |
78 |
|
Feb 7 |
A |
Zielona Gora |
W |
97 |
93 |
7 |
6 |
W 1 |
93 |
87 |
|
Feb 2 |
A |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
L |
73 |
78 |
6 |
6 |
L 5 |
83 |
76 |
|
Jan 23 |
H |
UNICS |
L |
66 |
91 |
6 |
5 |
L 4 |
72 |
91 |
|
Jan 16 |
H |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
L |
73 |
94 |
6 |
4 |
L 3 |
70 |
86 |
|
Jan 9 |
A |
Tsmoki Minsk |
L |
76 |
77 |
6 |
3 |
L 2 |
72 |
86 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Minsk are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 7 |
A |
CSKA Moscow |
L |
67 |
101 |
2 |
14 |
L 6 |
72 |
88 |
|
Feb 28 |
A |
Avtodor |
L |
66 |
113 |
2 |
13 |
L 5 |
64 |
111 |
|
Feb 7 |
H |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
L |
73 |
99 |
2 |
12 |
L 4 |
83 |
96 |
|
Jan 30 |
H |
UNICS |
L |
66 |
76 |
2 |
11 |
L 3 |
72 |
76 |
|
Jan 24 |
H |
Kalev/Cramo |
L |
72 |
80 |
2 |
10 |
L 2 |
70 |
84 |
|
Jan 17 |
H |
Zielona Gora |
L |
75 |
80 |
2 |
9 |
L 1 |
72 |
75 |
|
Jan 9 |
H |
Nizhny Novgorod |
W |
77 |
76 |
2 |
8 |
W 1 |
77 |
78 |
|
Dec 23 |
A |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
L |
76 |
77 |
1 |
8 |
L 8 |
73 |
70 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nizhny Novgorod and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Minsk.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Minsk and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nizhny Novgorod.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nizhny Novgorod (in the first graph) and by Minsk in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nizhny Novgorod will expected to score 82 points and the Minsk 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Nizhny Novgorod |
Minsk |
|
FG% |
0.53 |
0.50 |
|
ASS |
18.10 |
15.30 |
|
DRB |
20.90 |
19.90 |
|
AST-TO |
1.41 |
1.04 |
|
TRB |
29.30 |
28.50 |
|
FTM |
13.60 |
11.30 |
|
BL |
1.60 |
1.40 |
|
FTA |
18.80 |
15.50 |
|
PF-Fewer |
23.50 |
22.40 |
|
ST |
6.70 |
6.30 |
|
TO-Fewer |
12.80 |
14.70 |
|
Ftper |
0.72 |
0.73 |
|
ORBper |
0.40 |
0.43 |
|
ORB |
8.40 |
8.60 |
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