# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Middlesbrough vs Preston at 16 March 2021**** Luton vs Coventry at 16 March 2021**** Derby vs Brentford at 16 March 2021**** Cardiff vs Stoke at 16 March 2021**** Bournemouth vs Swansea at 16 March 2021**** Rotherham vs Watford at 16 March 2021**

<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’>** Nott’m Forest vs Norwich at 17 March 2021**** Birmingham vs Reading at 17 March 2021**** Sheffield Weds vs Huddersfield at 17 March 2021**** QPR vs Millwall at 17 March 2021**** Wycombe vs Barnsley at 17 March 2021**** Blackburn vs Bristol City at 17 March 2021**

###
Middlesbrough vs Preston at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Middlesbrough** and **Preston** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Middlesbrough |
1.92 |
2.10 |
-4.5 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.75 |
-2.6 |

Preston |
4.23 |
3.91 |
1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.24 |
2.11 |
2.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.90 |
-7.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Preston, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 2.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Middlesbrough** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Middlesbrough** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance** at home**.

Middlesbrough,** at home**, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Stoke |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Coventry |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Cardiff |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Reading |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Derby |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Preston** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Preston** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance** as a guest**.

Preston,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 46.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Huddersfield |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Feb |
QPR |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Cardiff |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Watford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Feb |
Blackburn |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Middlesbrough** is **0.436** and for the **Preston** is **-0.498.**

The home dynamic for the **Middlesbrough** is **-0.115** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Preston** is **-0.016.**

The offensive ability for the **Middlesbrough** is **1** and for the **Preston** is **-0.145.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Middlesbrough** is **-0.053** and for the **Preston** is **-0.288.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Middlesbrough** and the red line for guest team, **Preston. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Middlesbrough |
21% |
33% |
27% |
19% |

Preston |
34% |
40% |
17% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Middlesbrough** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Preston** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and the home team **Middlesbrough ** to win by **0.62** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Middlesbrough** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Preston** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Middlesbrough ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.72 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.41 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.40 |
3.74 |
3.16 |

2-3 goals |
1.95 |
3.80 |
4.47 |

4+ goals |
2.16 |
3.60 |
3.85 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.01 |
3.73 |
4.26 |

Un 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.74 |
3.16 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
7.51 |
3.48 |

Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.58 |
4.36 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.60 |
3.85 |

Un 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.78 |
3.91 |

Goal-Goal |
2.47 |
2.66 |
4.54 |

No Goal |
1.81 |
6.65 |
3.37 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
6.17 |
3.38 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.96 |
6.65 |
3.26 |

####
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###
Luton vs Coventry at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Luton** and **Coventry** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Luton |
2.87 |
2.11 |
12.6 |

Draw |
3.05 |
3.75 |
-6.1 |

Coventry |
2.68 |
3.85 |
-11.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.36 |
2.14 |
4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.88 |
-8.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Luton, Over 2.5 (12.6 %, 4.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Luton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Luton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance** at home**.

Luton,** at home**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Millwall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Coventry** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Coventry** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance** as a guest**.

Coventry,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 21.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Derby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Feb |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Brentford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Norwich |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Cardiff |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Watford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Luton** is **0** and for the **Coventry** is **-0.259.**

The home dynamic for the **Luton** is **-0.115** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Coventry** is **-0.733.**

The offensive ability for the **Luton** is **-0.256** and for the **Coventry** is **0.295.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Luton** is **-0.505** and for the **Coventry** is **-0.202.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Luton** and the red line for guest team, **Coventry. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Luton |
23% |
32% |
24% |
20% |

Coventry |
35% |
40% |
15% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Luton** to score **1.06 ** goals and **Coventry** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.18** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Luton** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Coventry** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the home team **Luton ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.50 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.50 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.55 |
3.53 |
3.08 |

2-3 goals |
1.94 |
3.78 |
4.52 |

4+ goals |
2.05 |
4.04 |
3.77 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.98 |
3.86 |
4.25 |

Un 1.5 |
2.55 |
3.53 |
3.08 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
8.21 |
3.52 |

Un 2.5 |
2.73 |
2.55 |
4.16 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.05 |
4.04 |
3.77 |

Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.68 |
3.85 |

Goal-Goal |
2.42 |
2.70 |
4.63 |

No Goal |
1.88 |
6.17 |
3.27 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
6.53 |
3.44 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.17 |
3.16 |

####
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###
Derby vs Brentford at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Derby** and **Brentford** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Derby |
3.90 |
2.91 |
8.7 |

Draw |
3.28 |
3.61 |
-2.8 |

Brentford |
2.04 |
2.64 |
-11.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.36 |
2.28 |
1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.78 |
-5.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Derby, Over 2.5 (8.7 %, 1.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** at home**.

Derby,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Mar |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Cardiff |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Feb |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Watford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Brentford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brentford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance** as a guest**.

Brentford,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 57.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Mar |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Stoke |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
QPR |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Barnsley |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Feb |
Reading |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Derby** is **-0.255** and for the **Brentford** is **-0.045.**

The home dynamic for the **Derby** is **-0.115** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Brentford** is **0.444.**

The offensive ability for the **Derby** is **-0.731** and for the **Brentford** is **0.207.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Derby** is **-0.084** and for the **Brentford** is **-0.167.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Derby** and the red line for guest team, **Brentford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Derby |
34% |
35% |
16% |
15% |

Brentford |
32% |
33% |
20% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Derby** to score **0.85 ** goals and **Brentford** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.18** goals in the game and the guest team **Brentford ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Derby** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Brentford** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.43 |
0-1 |
3.06 |

1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
2.19 |

2 |
4.29 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.48 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.06 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
2.20 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.95 |
3.08 |
2.97 |

2-3 goals |
3.00 |
3.97 |
2.41 |

4+ goals |
2.67 |
3.86 |
2.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.88 |
3.93 |
2.51 |

Un 1.5 |
2.95 |
3.08 |
2.97 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.41 |
7.84 |
2.18 |

Un 2.5 |
3.46 |
2.53 |
3.16 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.67 |
3.86 |
2.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.98 |
3.54 |
2.62 |

Goal-Goal |
3.39 |
2.65 |
3.05 |

No Goal |
2.60 |
5.14 |
2.38 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.53 |
6.05 |
2.28 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.75 |
5.14 |
2.51 |

####
Go to Top

###
Cardiff vs Stoke at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cardiff** and **Stoke** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cardiff |
2.22 |
2.06 |
3.5 |

Draw |
3.11 |
3.72 |
-5.3 |

Stoke |
3.57 |
4.07 |
-3.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.45 |
2.12 |
6.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.89 |
-10.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cardiff, Over 2.5 (3.5 %, 6.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cardiff** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cardiff** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance** at home**.

Cardiff,** at home**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Watford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Mar |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Derby |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Feb |
Bournemouth |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Preston |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Luton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Coventry |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Stoke** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stoke** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance** as a guest**.

Stoke,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Luton |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Cardiff** is **0.545** and for the **Stoke** is **-0.506.**

The home dynamic for the **Cardiff** is **-0.032** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Stoke** is **-0.123.**

The offensive ability for the **Cardiff** is **0.552** and for the **Stoke** is **0.181.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cardiff** is **0.4** and for the **Stoke** is **-0.253.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cardiff** and the red line for guest team, **Stoke. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cardiff |
20% |
36% |
25% |
20% |

Stoke |
34% |
39% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cardiff** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Stoke** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.13** goals in the game and the home team **Cardiff ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cardiff** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Stoke** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Cardiff ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.73 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.41 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |