2021 03 16 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Middlesbrough vs Preston at 16 March 2021
Luton vs Coventry at 16 March 2021
Derby vs Brentford at 16 March 2021
Cardiff vs Stoke at 16 March 2021
Bournemouth vs Swansea at 16 March 2021
Rotherham vs Watford at 16 March 2021
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Norwich at 17 March 2021
Birmingham vs Reading at 17 March 2021
Sheffield Weds vs Huddersfield at 17 March 2021
QPR vs Millwall at 17 March 2021
Wycombe vs Barnsley at 17 March 2021
Blackburn vs Bristol City at 17 March 2021


Middlesbrough vs Preston at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Middlesbrough and Preston for Championship (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Middlesbrough

1.92

2.10

-4.5

Draw

3.42

3.75

-2.6

Preston

4.23

3.91

1.9

Over 2.5

2.24

2.11

2.8

Under 2.5

1.67

1.90

-7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Preston, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 2.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Middlesbrough in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Middlesbrough in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance at home.
Middlesbrough, at home, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Stoke

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Swansea

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Coventry

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Cardiff

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Bristol City

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Reading

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Huddersfield

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Derby

A

1

2

L

O

G


Preston in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance as a guest.
Preston, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 46.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Bournemouth

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Millwall

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Huddersfield

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Feb

QPR

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Cardiff

A

0

4

L

O

N

16 Feb

Watford

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Feb

Blackburn

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Middlesbrough is 0.436 and for the Preston is -0.498.
The home dynamic for the Middlesbrough is -0.115 and the dynamic as a guest for the Preston is -0.016.
The offensive ability for the Middlesbrough is 1 and for the Preston is -0.145.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Middlesbrough is -0.053 and for the Preston is -0.288.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Middlesbrough and the red line for guest team, Preston.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Middlesbrough

21%

33%

27%

19%

Preston

34%

40%

17%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.44 goals and Preston to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.43 goals and Preston to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.72

1

5.08

2-3

1.98

2

3.86

4+

4.41

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.72

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.40

3.74

3.16

2-3 goals

1.95

3.80

4.47

4+ goals

2.16

3.60

3.85

Ov 1.5

2.01

3.73

4.26

Un 1.5

2.40

3.74

3.16

Ov 2.5

1.73

7.51

3.48

Un 2.5

2.61

2.58

4.36

Ov 3.5

2.16

3.60

3.85

Un 3.5

2.09

3.78

3.91

Goal-Goal

2.47

2.66

4.54

No Goal

1.81

6.65

3.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.84

6.17

3.38

NG+Un 2.5

1.96

6.65

3.26


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Luton vs Coventry at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Luton and Coventry for Championship (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Luton

2.87

2.11

12.6

Draw

3.05

3.75

-6.1

Coventry

2.68

3.85

-11.3

Over 2.5

2.36

2.14

4.4

Under 2.5

1.61

1.88

-8.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Luton, Over 2.5 (12.6 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Luton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance at home.
Luton, at home, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Swansea

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Norwich

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Mar

Nott’m Forest

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Sheffield Weds

H

3

2

W

O

G

23 Feb

Millwall

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Stoke

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Feb

Cardiff

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Birmingham

A

1

0

W

U

N


Coventry in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Coventry in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance as a guest.
Coventry, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 21.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Middlesbrough

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Feb

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Brentford

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Norwich

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Cardiff

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Watford

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Luton is 0 and for the Coventry is -0.259.
The home dynamic for the Luton is -0.115 and the dynamic as a guest for the Coventry is -0.733.
The offensive ability for the Luton is -0.256 and for the Coventry is 0.295.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Luton is -0.505 and for the Coventry is -0.202.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Luton and the red line for guest team, Coventry.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Luton

23%

32%

24%

20%

Coventry

35%

40%

15%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Luton to score 1.06 goals and Coventry to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Luton to score 1.42 goals and Coventry to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Luton to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.50

1

4.88

2-3

2.07

2

4.07

4+

4.35

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.50

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

3.53

3.08

2-3 goals

1.94

3.78

4.52

4+ goals

2.05

4.04

3.77

Ov 1.5

1.98

3.86

4.25

Un 1.5

2.55

3.53

3.08

Ov 2.5

1.68

8.21

3.52

Un 2.5

2.73

2.55

4.16

Ov 3.5

2.05

4.04

3.77

Un 3.5

2.13

3.68

3.85

Goal-Goal

2.42

2.70

4.63

No Goal

1.88

6.17

3.27

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.80

6.53

3.44

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

6.17

3.16


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Derby vs Brentford at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Derby and Brentford for Championship (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Derby

3.90

2.91

8.7

Draw

3.28

3.61

-2.8

Brentford

2.04

2.64

-11.1

Over 2.5

2.36

2.28

1.5

Under 2.5

1.61

1.78

-5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Derby, Over 2.5 (8.7 %, 1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Derby in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance at home.
Derby, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 16 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Millwall

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Mar

Barnsley

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Coventry

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Cardiff

A

0

4

L

O

N

26 Feb

Nott’m Forest

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Huddersfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Feb

Watford

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Wycombe

A

2

1

W

O

G


Brentford in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance as a guest.
Brentford, as a guest, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 57.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Mar

Blackburn

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Norwich

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Stoke

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Feb

Sheffield Weds

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Coventry

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Feb

QPR

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

Barnsley

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Feb

Reading

A

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Derby is -0.255 and for the Brentford is -0.045.
The home dynamic for the Derby is -0.115 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brentford is 0.444.
The offensive ability for the Derby is -0.731 and for the Brentford is 0.207.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Derby is -0.084 and for the Brentford is -0.167.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Derby and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Derby

34%

35%

16%

15%

Brentford

32%

33%

20%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Derby to score 0.85 goals and Brentford to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the guest team Brentford to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Derby to score 1.13 goals and Brentford to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.43

0-1

3.06

1

4.52

2-3

2.19

2

4.29

4+

4.63

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.06

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.20

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.95

3.08

2.97

2-3 goals

3.00

3.97

2.41

4+ goals

2.67

3.86

2.73

Ov 1.5

2.88

3.93

2.51

Un 1.5

2.95

3.08

2.97

Ov 2.5

2.41

7.84

2.18

Un 2.5

3.46

2.53

3.16

Ov 3.5

2.67

3.86

2.73

Un 3.5

2.98

3.54

2.62

Goal-Goal

3.39

2.65

3.05

No Goal

2.60

5.14

2.38

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.53

6.05

2.28

NG+Un 2.5

2.75

5.14

2.51


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cardiff vs Stoke at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cardiff and Stoke for Championship (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cardiff

2.22

2.06

3.5

Draw

3.11

3.72

-5.3

Stoke

3.57

4.07

-3.4

Over 2.5

2.45

2.12

6.4

Under 2.5

1.57

1.89

-10.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cardiff, Over 2.5 (3.5 %, 6.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cardiff in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cardiff in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance at home.
Cardiff, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Watford

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Mar

Huddersfield

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Derby

H

4

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Middlesbrough

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Feb

Bournemouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Preston

H

4

0

W

O

N

16 Feb

Luton

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Coventry

H

3

1

W

O

G


Stoke in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stoke in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance as a guest.
Stoke, as a guest, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Middlesbrough

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Mar

Wycombe

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Swansea

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Brentford

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Feb

Barnsley

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Luton

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Feb

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Norwich

A

1

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Cardiff is 0.545 and for the Stoke is -0.506.
The home dynamic for the Cardiff is -0.032 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stoke is -0.123.
The offensive ability for the Cardiff is 0.552 and for the Stoke is 0.181.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cardiff is 0.4 and for the Stoke is -0.253.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cardiff and the red line for guest team, Stoke.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cardiff

20%

36%

25%

20%

Stoke

34%

39%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.24 goals and Stoke to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Cardiff to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.44 goals and Stoke to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Cardiff to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.73

1

4.98

2-3

1.98

2

3.86

4+

4.41

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.73

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at