2021 03 16 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Woking vs Altrincham at 16 March 2021
Wrexham vs Eastleigh at 16 March 2021
Stockport vs Barnet at 16 March 2021
Maidenhead vs Torquay at 16 March 2021
Halifax vs Aldershot at 16 March 2021
Dag and Red vs Weymouth at 16 March 2021
Chesterfield vs Sutton at 16 March 2021
Boreham Wood vs Notts County at 16 March 2021
King’s Lynn vs Hartlepool at 16 March 2021
Yeovil vs Bromley at 16 March 2021


Woking vs Altrincham at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Woking and Altrincham for Conference (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Woking

2.31

2.24

1.4

Draw

3.27

3.79

-4.2

Altrincham

3.15

3.46

-2.8

Over 2.5

2.17

1.98

4.4

Under 2.5

1.72

2.02

-8.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Woking, Over 2.5 (1.4 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Woking in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance at home.
Woking, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Yeovil

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Mar

Boreham Wood

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Altrincham

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Wrexham

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Stockport

H

1

4

L

O

G

26 Jan

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G


Altrincham in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance as a guest.
Altrincham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 43.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Aldershot

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Mar

Hartlepool

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Bromley

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Feb

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Boreham Wood

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Yeovil

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Wrexham

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Woking is 0.018 and for the Altrincham is -0.63.
The home dynamic for the Woking is -0.005 and the dynamic as a guest for the Altrincham is -0.07.
The offensive ability for the Woking is -0.166 and for the Altrincham is 0.648.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Woking is 0.442 and for the Altrincham is -0.597.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Woking and the red line for guest team, Altrincham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Woking

22%

33%

25%

20%

Altrincham

31%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Woking to score 1.28 goals and Altrincham to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Woking to score 1.43 goals and Altrincham to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.98

1

5.49

2-3

2.03

2

4.10

4+

3.89

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.98

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.44

3.64

3.18

2-3 goals

2.16

4.13

3.39

4+ goals

2.23

3.38

3.89

Ov 1.5

2.18

3.84

3.55

Un 1.5

2.44

3.64

3.18

Ov 2.5

1.90

6.64

3.10

Un 2.5

2.75

2.63

3.90

Ov 3.5

2.23

3.38

3.89

Un 3.5

2.24

3.95

3.32

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.75

3.88

No Goal

1.91

6.72

3.05

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.49

3.02

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.72

2.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wrexham vs Eastleigh at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Eastleigh for Conference (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

2.18

2.06

2.7

Draw

3.19

3.91

-5.8

Eastleigh

3.31

3.86

-4.3

Over 2.5

2.31

1.96

7.7

Under 2.5

1.60

2.04

-13.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wrexham, Over 2.5 (2.7 %, 7.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 64.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Weymouth

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Sutton

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Wealdstone

H

4

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Hartlepool

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Aldershot

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Feb

Woking

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Altrincham

A

2

1

W

O

G


Eastleigh in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance as a guest.
Eastleigh, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Hartlepool

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Wealdstone

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Stockport

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Hartlepool

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Yeovil

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Solihull

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Wrexham is 0.727 and for the Eastleigh is -0.193.
The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.512 and the dynamic as a guest for the Eastleigh is 0.08.
The offensive ability for the Wrexham is -0.103 and for the Eastleigh is -0.26.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is 1 and for the Eastleigh is 0.176.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Eastleigh.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

21%

30%

26%

23%

Eastleigh

34%

36%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.25 goals and Eastleigh to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.5 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.98

1

5.59

2-3

2.04

2

4.18

4+

3.85

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.98

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.49

3.49

3.22

2-3 goals

1.93

4.46

3.90

4+ goals

2.00

3.47

4.73

Ov 1.5

1.95

4.06

4.15

Un 1.5

2.49

3.49

3.22

Ov 2.5

1.71

6.83

3.74

Un 2.5

2.63

2.69

4.02

Ov 3.5

2.00

3.47

4.73

Un 3.5

2.08

4.08

3.64

Goal-Goal

2.35

2.83

4.52

No Goal

1.82

6.64

3.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

5.52

3.57

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

6.64

3.11


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stockport vs Barnet at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stockport and Barnet for Conference (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stockport

1.23

1.72

-23.2

Draw

5.75

4.33

5.7

Barnet

10.93

5.35

9.5

Over 2.5

1.69

1.96

-8.2

Under 2.5

2.13

2.04

2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Barnet, Under 2.5 (5.7 %, 9.5 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stockport in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance at home.
Stockport, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Solihull

A

5

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Weymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Chesterfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Notts County

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Eastleigh

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Feb

Maidenhead

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Feb

Aldershot

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Yeovil

H

1

0

W

U

N


Barnet in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnet in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance as a guest.
Barnet, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 15.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Mar

Wrexham

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Yeovil

H

1

4

L

O

G

27 Feb

Hartlepool

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

King’s Lynn

A

1

5

L

O

G

20 Feb

Woking

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Feb

Halifax

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Aldershot

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Stockport is 0.273 and for the Barnet is -1.
The home dynamic for the Stockport is 0.207 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barnet is -1.
The offensive ability for the Stockport is -0.525 and for the Barnet is -0.145.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stockport is 0.895 and for the Barnet is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stockport and the red line for guest team, Barnet.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stockport

21%

23%

27%

29%

Barnet

42%

37%

15%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stockport to score 2.33 goals and Barnet to score 0.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and the home team Stockport to win by 1.87 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stockport to score 1.65 goals and Barnet to score 0.86 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Stockport to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.86

1

5.81

2-3

2.00

2

4.37

4+

4.17

3

3.70

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.86

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

2.17

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

1.86

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.76

2.98

3.32

2-3 goals

1.49

5.94

6.32

4+ goals

1.58

4.14

8.00

Ov 1.5

1.51

5.20

6.78

Un 1.5

2.76

2.98

3.32

Ov 2.5

1.36

8.79

6.62

Un 2.5

2.36

2.85

4.44

Ov 3.5

1.58

4.14

8.00

Un 3.5

1.76

4.43

4.83

Goal-Goal

1.81

3.24

7.19

No Goal

1.64

6.18

4.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.48

6.48

5.88

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

6.18

3.67


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Maidenhead vs Torquay at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maidenhead and Torquay for Conference (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maidenhead

3.50

2.87

6.3

Draw

3.59

3.65

-0.5

Torquay

1.95

2.64

-13.4

Over 2.5

1.76

2.02

-7.3

Under 2.5

2.03

1.98

1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maidenhead, Under 2.5 (6.3 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maidenhead in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance at home.
Maidenhead, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Chesterfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Dag and Red

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Solihull

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Aldershot

H

2

4

L

O

G

20 Feb

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Feb

Stockport

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Boreham Wood

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Halifax

A

3

2

W

O

G


Torquay in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance as a guest.
Torquay, as a guest, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 69.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Hartlepool

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Solihull

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Halifax

H

2

3

L

O

G

09 Feb

Wealdstone

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Feb

Altrincham

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Sutton

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Maidenhead is 0.045 and for the Torquay is -0.457.
The home dynamic for the Maidenhead is 0.014 and the dynamic as a guest for the Torquay is 1.
The offensive ability for the Maidenhead is 0.668 and for the Torquay is 0.093.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.053 and for the Torquay is -0.545.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maidenhead and the red line for guest team, Torquay.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maidenhead

25%

39%

22%

14%

Torquay

26%

34%

24%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.06 goals and Torquay to score 1.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the guest team Torquay to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.24 goals and Torquay to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

3.94

1

5.32

2-3

2.02

2

3.98

4+

4.00

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.94

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

4.00

NoG

2.24

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-