# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Woking vs Altrincham at 16 March 2021**** Wrexham vs Eastleigh at 16 March 2021**** Stockport vs Barnet at 16 March 2021**** Maidenhead vs Torquay at 16 March 2021**** Halifax vs Aldershot at 16 March 2021**** Dag and Red vs Weymouth at 16 March 2021**** Chesterfield vs Sutton at 16 March 2021**** Boreham Wood vs Notts County at 16 March 2021**** King’s Lynn vs Hartlepool at 16 March 2021**** Yeovil vs Bromley at 16 March 2021**

###
Woking vs Altrincham at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Woking** and **Altrincham** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Woking |
2.31 |
2.24 |
1.4 |

Draw |
3.27 |
3.79 |
-4.2 |

Altrincham |
3.15 |
3.46 |
-2.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
1.98 |
4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
2.02 |
-8.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Woking, Over 2.5 (1.4 %, 4.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Woking** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Woking** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance** at home**.

Woking,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
King’s Lynn |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Altrincham** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Altrincham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Altrincham** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Altrincham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance** as a guest**.

Altrincham,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 43.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Altrincham scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Aldershot |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Hartlepool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Woking |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Bromley |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Yeovil |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Wrexham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Woking** is **0.018** and for the **Altrincham** is **-0.63.**

The home dynamic for the **Woking** is **-0.005** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Altrincham** is **-0.07.**

The offensive ability for the **Woking** is **-0.166** and for the **Altrincham** is **0.648.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Woking** is **0.442** and for the **Altrincham** is **-0.597.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Woking** and the red line for guest team, **Altrincham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Woking |
22% |
33% |
25% |
20% |

Altrincham |
31% |
36% |
22% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Woking** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Altrincham** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Woking** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Altrincham** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.98 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
3.89 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.44 |
3.64 |
3.18 |

2-3 goals |
2.16 |
4.13 |
3.39 |

4+ goals |
2.23 |
3.38 |
3.89 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.84 |
3.55 |

Un 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.64 |
3.18 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.64 |
3.10 |

Un 2.5 |
2.75 |
2.63 |
3.90 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.23 |
3.38 |
3.89 |

Un 3.5 |
2.24 |
3.95 |
3.32 |

Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.75 |
3.88 |

No Goal |
1.91 |
6.72 |
3.05 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.49 |
3.02 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.72 |
2.96 |

####
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###
Wrexham vs Eastleigh at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wrexham** and **Eastleigh** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wrexham |
2.18 |
2.06 |
2.7 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.91 |
-5.8 |

Eastleigh |
3.31 |
3.86 |
-4.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.31 |
1.96 |
7.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.60 |
2.04 |
-13.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wrexham, Over 2.5 (2.7 %, 7.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wrexham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wrexham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance** at home**.

Wrexham,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 64.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Weymouth |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Sutton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Wealdstone |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Hartlepool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Woking |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Eastleigh** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Eastleigh** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance** as a guest**.

Eastleigh,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Bromley |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Wealdstone |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Hartlepool |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Solihull |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Wrexham** is **0.727** and for the **Eastleigh** is **-0.193.**

The home dynamic for the **Wrexham** is **0.512** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Eastleigh** is **0.08.**

The offensive ability for the **Wrexham** is **-0.103** and for the **Eastleigh** is **-0.26.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wrexham** is **1** and for the **Eastleigh** is **0.176.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wrexham** and the red line for guest team, **Eastleigh. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wrexham |
21% |
30% |
26% |
23% |

Eastleigh |
34% |
36% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wrexham** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Eastleigh** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and the home team **Wrexham ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wrexham** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Eastleigh** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **Wrexham ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.98 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
3.85 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.49 |
3.49 |
3.22 |

2-3 goals |
1.93 |
4.46 |
3.90 |

4+ goals |
2.00 |
3.47 |
4.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.95 |
4.06 |
4.15 |

Un 1.5 |
2.49 |
3.49 |
3.22 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |
6.83 |
3.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
2.69 |
4.02 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.00 |
3.47 |
4.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.08 |
4.08 |
3.64 |

Goal-Goal |
2.35 |
2.83 |
4.52 |

No Goal |
1.82 |
6.64 |
3.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
5.52 |
3.57 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.64 |
3.11 |

####
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###
Stockport vs Barnet at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stockport** and **Barnet** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stockport |
1.23 |
1.72 |
-23.2 |

Draw |
5.75 |
4.33 |
5.7 |

Barnet |
10.93 |
5.35 |
9.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.96 |
-8.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.04 |
2.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Barnet, Under 2.5 (5.7 %, 9.5 %, 2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stockport** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Stockport** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance** at home**.

Stockport,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Mar |
Solihull |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Weymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Chesterfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Notts County |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Maidenhead |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Barnet** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnet scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barnet** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance** as a guest**.

Barnet,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 15.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnet scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Wrexham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
King’s Lynn |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Woking |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Halifax |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Aldershot |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Stockport** is **0.273** and for the **Barnet** is **-1.**

The home dynamic for the **Stockport** is **0.207** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Barnet** is **-1.**

The offensive ability for the **Stockport** is **-0.525** and for the **Barnet** is **-0.145.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Stockport** is **0.895** and for the **Barnet** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stockport** and the red line for guest team, **Barnet. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stockport |
21% |
23% |
27% |
29% |

Barnet |
42% |
37% |
15% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stockport** to score **2.33 ** goals and **Barnet** to score **0.46 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.79** goals in the game and the home team **Stockport ** to win by **1.87** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stockport** to score **1.65 ** goals and **Barnet** to score **0.86 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Stockport ** to win by **0.79** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
4.37 |
4+ |
4.17 |

3 |
3.70 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
2.05 |

Gg |
2.17 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.17 |

NoG |
1.86 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.76 |
2.98 |
3.32 |

2-3 goals |
1.49 |
5.94 |
6.32 |

4+ goals |
1.58 |
4.14 |
8.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |
5.20 |
6.78 |

Un 1.5 |
2.76 |
2.98 |
3.32 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.36 |
8.79 |
6.62 |

Un 2.5 |
2.36 |
2.85 |
4.44 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.58 |
4.14 |
8.00 |

Un 3.5 |
1.76 |
4.43 |
4.83 |

Goal-Goal |
1.81 |
3.24 |
7.19 |

No Goal |
1.64 |
6.18 |
4.37 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.48 |
6.48 |
5.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
6.18 |
3.67 |

####
Go to Top

###
Maidenhead vs Torquay at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Maidenhead** and **Torquay** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Maidenhead |
3.50 |
2.87 |
6.3 |

Draw |
3.59 |
3.65 |
-0.5 |

Torquay |
1.95 |
2.64 |
-13.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.76 |
2.02 |
-7.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
1.98 |
1.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Maidenhead, Under 2.5 (6.3 %, 1.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Maidenhead** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maidenhead** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance** at home**.

Maidenhead,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Chesterfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Dag and Red |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Stockport |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Halifax |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Torquay** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Torquay scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Torquay** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Torquay scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance** as a guest**.

Torquay,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 69.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Torquay scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Boreham Wood |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Hartlepool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Solihull |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Halifax |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Wealdstone |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Feb |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Maidenhead** is **0.045** and for the **Torquay** is **-0.457.**

The home dynamic for the **Maidenhead** is **0.014** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Torquay** is **1.**

The offensive ability for the **Maidenhead** is **0.668** and for the **Torquay** is **0.093.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Maidenhead** is **-0.053** and for the **Torquay** is **-0.545.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Maidenhead** and the red line for guest team, **Torquay. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Maidenhead |
25% |
39% |
22% |
14% |

Torquay |
26% |
34% |
24% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Maidenhead** to score **1.06 ** goals and **Torquay** to score **1.63 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and the guest team **Torquay ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Maidenhead** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Torquay** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
3.94 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.00 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |

NoG |
2.24 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |