# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Lincoln vs Gillingham at 16 March 2021**** Peterboro vs Portsmouth at 16 March 2021**** Oxford vs Doncaster at 16 March 2021**** Milton Keynes Dons vs Plymouth at 16 March 2021**** Fleetwood Town vs Ipswich at 16 March 2021**** Charlton vs Bristol Rvs at 16 March 2021**** Blackpool vs Burton at 16 March 2021**** AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan at 16 March 2021**** Accrington vs Sunderland at 17 March 2021**

###
Lincoln vs Gillingham at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lincoln** and **Gillingham** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lincoln |
1.67 |
2.13 |
-12.9 |

Draw |
3.76 |
3.80 |
-0.3 |

Gillingham |
5.28 |
3.75 |
7.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.07 |
0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.93 |
-4.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Gillingham, Over 2.5 (7.7 %, 0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lincoln** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lincoln** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance** at home**.

Lincoln,** at home**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Rochdale |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Crewe |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Plymouth |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Wigan |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Gillingham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gillingham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance** as a guest**.

Gillingham,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Swindon |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Ipswich |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Lincoln** is **-0.182** and for the **Gillingham** is **0.119.**

The home dynamic for the **Lincoln** is **-0.032** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Gillingham** is **0.155.**

The offensive ability for the **Lincoln** is **1** and for the **Gillingham** is **0.233.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Lincoln** is **-0.505** and for the **Gillingham** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lincoln** and the red line for guest team, **Gillingham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lincoln |
21% |
33% |
27% |
18% |

Gillingham |
35% |
36% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lincoln** to score **1.65 ** goals and **Gillingham** to score **0.73 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Lincoln ** to win by **0.92** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lincoln** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Gillingham** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Lincoln ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.24 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.31 |
3.55 |
3.50 |

2-3 goals |
1.98 |
4.22 |
3.89 |

4+ goals |
2.31 |
3.32 |
3.75 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.07 |
3.88 |
3.84 |

Un 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.55 |
3.50 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.79 |
3.21 |

Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.68 |
4.43 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.32 |
3.75 |

Un 3.5 |
2.08 |
3.96 |
3.75 |

Goal-Goal |
2.60 |
2.71 |
4.04 |

No Goal |
1.79 |
6.49 |
3.48 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
5.56 |
3.11 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.49 |
3.42 |

####
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###
Peterboro vs Portsmouth at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Peterboro** and **Portsmouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Peterboro |
2.15 |
2.30 |
-3.0 |

Draw |
3.38 |
3.72 |
-2.7 |

Portsmouth |
3.35 |
3.38 |
-0.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.08 |
-0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.93 |
-5.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** at home**.

Peterboro,** at home**, had 12 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 79.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Mar |
Hull |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Burton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Plymouth |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Gillingham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Portsmouth,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 64.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Mar |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Peterboro** is **0.3** and for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.712.**

The home dynamic for the **Peterboro** is **0.871** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Portsmouth** is **0.647.**

The offensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **0.578** and for the **Portsmouth** is **0.207.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **0.295** and for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.657.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Peterboro** and the red line for guest team, **Portsmouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Peterboro |
23% |
34% |
25% |
18% |

Portsmouth |
32% |
36% |
22% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.75 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.22 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.22 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.56 |
3.14 |

2-3 goals |
2.19 |
4.11 |
3.34 |

4+ goals |
2.35 |
3.25 |
3.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.78 |
3.46 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.56 |
3.14 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.60 |
2.99 |

Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
2.65 |
3.82 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.25 |
3.76 |

Un 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.90 |
3.26 |

Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.69 |
3.84 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
6.39 |
2.98 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
5.49 |
2.95 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.39 |
2.93 |

####
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###
Oxford vs Doncaster at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oxford** and **Doncaster** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oxford |
2.41 |
2.97 |
-7.8 |

Draw |
3.48 |
3.68 |
-1.6 |

Doncaster |
2.85 |
2.56 |
4.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.07 |
-5.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.94 |
0.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Doncaster, Under 2.5 (4 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oxford** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oxford** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance** at home**.

Oxford,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Doncaster** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Doncaster** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance** as a guest**.

Doncaster,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Northampton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Crewe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Portsmouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Hull |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Feb |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Oxford** is **0.045** and for the **Doncaster** is **-0.111.**

The home dynamic for the **Oxford** is **0.226** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Doncaster** is **-0.091.**

The offensive ability for the **Oxford** is **-0.614** and for the **Doncaster** is **0.093.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Oxford** is **-0.053** and for the **Doncaster** is **-0.545.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oxford** and the red line for guest team, **Doncaster. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oxford |
30% |
33% |
23% |
14% |

Doncaster |
23% |
38% |
27% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Doncaster** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Doncaster** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.18 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.43 |
3.72 |
2.27 |

2-3 goals |
2.96 |
4.06 |
2.41 |

4+ goals |
2.60 |
3.03 |
3.51 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.83 |
3.66 |
2.68 |

Un 1.5 |
3.43 |
3.72 |
2.27 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |
6.13 |
2.48 |

Un 2.5 |
4.06 |
2.67 |
2.64 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.03 |
3.51 |

Un 3.5 |
3.10 |
3.94 |
2.36 |

Goal-Goal |
3.03 |
2.66 |
3.41 |

No Goal |
2.89 |
6.67 |
1.98 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
5.25 |
2.63 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.08 |
6.67 |
2.01 |

####
Go to Top

###
Milton Keynes Dons vs Plymouth at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Milton Keynes Dons** and **Plymouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Milton Keynes Dons |
2.01 |
2.19 |
-4.1 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.69 |
-2.1 |

Plymouth |
3.75 |
3.66 |
0.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
2.16 |
-11.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.11 |
1.86 |
6.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Plymouth, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 6.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance** at home**.

Milton Keynes Dons,** at home**, had 6 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 49.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Accrington |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Northampton |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Hull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Plymouth** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Plymouth** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Plymouth,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 27.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Wigan |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Lincoln |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Rochdale |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **-0.336** and for the **Plymouth** is **-0.893.**

The home dynamic for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **0.088** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Plymouth** is **-0.497.**

The offensive ability for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **0.13** and for the **Plymouth** is **-0.612.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **-1** and for the **Plymouth** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Milton Keynes Dons** and the red line for guest team, **Plymouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Milton Keynes Dons |
21% |
37% |
25% |
17% |

Plymouth |
35% |
36% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.67 ** goals and **Plymouth** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the home team **Milton Keynes Dons ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Plymouth** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Milton Keynes Dons ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.58 |

1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |