Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Lincoln vs Gillingham at 16 March 2021
Peterboro vs Portsmouth at 16 March 2021
Oxford vs Doncaster at 16 March 2021
Milton Keynes Dons vs Plymouth at 16 March 2021
Fleetwood Town vs Ipswich at 16 March 2021
Charlton vs Bristol Rvs at 16 March 2021
Blackpool vs Burton at 16 March 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan at 16 March 2021
Accrington vs Sunderland at 17 March 2021
Lincoln vs Gillingham at 16 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Lincoln and Gillingham for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Lincoln |
1.67 |
2.13 |
-12.9 |
|
Draw |
3.76 |
3.80 |
-0.3 |
|
Gillingham |
5.28 |
3.75 |
7.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.07 |
0.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.93 |
-4.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Gillingham, Over 2.5 (7.7 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Lincoln in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance at home.
Lincoln, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Mar |
Rochdale |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Mar |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Crewe |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Plymouth |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Wigan |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
14 Feb |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
Gillingham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance as a guest.
Gillingham, as a guest, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Mar |
Swindon |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Mar |
Ipswich |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Feb |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Feb |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
The form score for the Lincoln is -0.182 and for the Gillingham is 0.119.
The home dynamic for the Lincoln is -0.032 and the dynamic as a guest for the Gillingham is 0.155.
The offensive ability for the Lincoln is 1 and for the Gillingham is 0.233.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lincoln is -0.505 and for the Gillingham is -1.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lincoln and the red line for guest team, Gillingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Lincoln |
21% |
33% |
27% |
18% |
|
Gillingham |
35% |
36% |
19% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.65 goals and Gillingham to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Lincoln to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.42 goals and Gillingham to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Lincoln to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.76 |
|
1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.24 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |
|
5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |
|
NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.31 |
3.55 |
3.50 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.98 |
4.22 |
3.89 |
|
4+ goals |
2.31 |
3.32 |
3.75 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.07 |
3.88 |
3.84 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.55 |
3.50 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.79 |
3.21 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.68 |
4.43 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.32 |
3.75 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.08 |
3.96 |
3.75 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.60 |
2.71 |
4.04 |
|
No Goal |
1.79 |
6.49 |
3.48 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
5.56 |
3.11 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.49 |
3.42 |
Go to Top
Peterboro vs Portsmouth at 16 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and Portsmouth for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Peterboro |
2.15 |
2.30 |
-3.0 |
|
Draw |
3.38 |
3.72 |
-2.7 |
|
Portsmouth |
3.35 |
3.38 |
-0.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.08 |
-0.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.93 |
-5.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Peterboro in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 12 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 79.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Mar |
Hull |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Burton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Plymouth |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Feb |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Feb |
Gillingham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Portsmouth in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance as a guest.
Portsmouth, as a guest, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 64.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Mar |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Peterboro is 0.3 and for the Portsmouth is -0.712.
The home dynamic for the Peterboro is 0.871 and the dynamic as a guest for the Portsmouth is 0.647.
The offensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.578 and for the Portsmouth is 0.207.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.295 and for the Portsmouth is -0.657.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, Portsmouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Peterboro |
23% |
34% |
25% |
18% |
|
Portsmouth |
32% |
36% |
22% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.38 goals and Portsmouth to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.37 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.75 |
|
1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.22 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |
|
5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
|
Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.22 |
|
NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.56 |
3.14 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.19 |
4.11 |
3.34 |
|
4+ goals |
2.35 |
3.25 |
3.76 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.78 |
3.46 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.56 |
3.14 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.60 |
2.99 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
2.65 |
3.82 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.25 |
3.76 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.90 |
3.26 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.69 |
3.84 |
|
No Goal |
1.97 |
6.39 |
2.98 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
5.49 |
2.95 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.39 |
2.93 |
Go to Top
Oxford vs Doncaster at 16 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Oxford and Doncaster for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Oxford |
2.41 |
2.97 |
-7.8 |
|
Draw |
3.48 |
3.68 |
-1.6 |
|
Doncaster |
2.85 |
2.56 |
4.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.07 |
-5.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.94 |
0.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Doncaster, Under 2.5 (4 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Oxford in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance at home.
Oxford, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Mar |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Mar |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Doncaster in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Doncaster in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance as a guest.
Doncaster, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Mar |
Northampton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Mar |
Crewe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Mar |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Portsmouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Hull |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Feb |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
The form score for the Oxford is 0.045 and for the Doncaster is -0.111.
The home dynamic for the Oxford is 0.226 and the dynamic as a guest for the Doncaster is -0.091.
The offensive ability for the Oxford is -0.614 and for the Doncaster is 0.093.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Oxford is -0.053 and for the Doncaster is -0.545.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oxford and the red line for guest team, Doncaster.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Oxford |
30% |
33% |
23% |
14% |
|
Doncaster |
23% |
38% |
27% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.38 goals and Doncaster to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.21 goals and Doncaster to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.89 |
|
1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.18 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |
|
5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
|
Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |
|
NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.43 |
3.72 |
2.27 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.96 |
4.06 |
2.41 |
|
4+ goals |
2.60 |
3.03 |
3.51 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.83 |
3.66 |
2.68 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.43 |
3.72 |
2.27 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |
6.13 |
2.48 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.06 |
2.67 |
2.64 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.03 |
3.51 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.10 |
3.94 |
2.36 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.03 |
2.66 |
3.41 |
|
No Goal |
2.89 |
6.67 |
1.98 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
5.25 |
2.63 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.08 |
6.67 |
2.01 |
Go to Top
Milton Keynes Dons vs Plymouth at 16 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Milton Keynes Dons and Plymouth for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Milton Keynes Dons |
2.01 |
2.19 |
-4.1 |
|
Draw |
3.42 |
3.69 |
-2.1 |
|
Plymouth |
3.75 |
3.66 |
0.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
2.16 |
-11.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.11 |
1.86 |
6.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Plymouth, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 6.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance at home.
Milton Keynes Dons, at home, had 6 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 49.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Mar |
Accrington |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Mar |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Mar |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Northampton |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Feb |
Hull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Plymouth in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance as a guest.
Plymouth, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 27.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Mar |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Mar |
Wigan |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Mar |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Lincoln |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Rochdale |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.336 and for the Plymouth is -0.893.
The home dynamic for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.088 and the dynamic as a guest for the Plymouth is -0.497.
The offensive ability for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.13 and for the Plymouth is -0.612.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Milton Keynes Dons is -1 and for the Plymouth is -1.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Milton Keynes Dons and the red line for guest team, Plymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Milton Keynes Dons |
21% |
37% |
25% |
17% |
|
Plymouth |
35% |
36% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.67 goals and Plymouth to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.37 goals and Plymouth to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.58 |
|
1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.52 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
|
6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |
|
NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |