# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Port Vale vs Newport County at 16 March 2021**** Cheltenham vs Barrow at 16 March 2021**** Crawley Town vs Walsall at 16 March 2021**** Salford vs Colchester at 16 March 2021**** Scunthorpe vs Oldham at 16 March 2021**** Mansfield vs Carlisle at 16 March 2021**** Grimsby vs Tranmere at 17 March 2021**

###
Port Vale vs Newport County at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Port Vale** and **Newport County** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Port Vale |
2.68 |
2.51 |
2.5 |

Draw |
3.02 |
3.58 |
-5.2 |

Newport County |
2.81 |
3.10 |
-3.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.22 |
-3.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.82 |
-1.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Port Vale (2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Port Vale** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Port Vale** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance** at home**.

Port Vale,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Oldham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Cheltenham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Salford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Newport County** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newport County** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance** as a guest**.

Newport County,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Exeter |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Port Vale** is **-0.609** and for the **Newport County** is **0.481.**

The home dynamic for the **Port Vale** is **-0.401** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Newport County** is **0.102.**

The offensive ability for the **Port Vale** is **-1** and for the **Newport County** is **0.269.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Port Vale** is **-0.084** and for the **Newport County** is **0.056.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Port Vale** and the red line for guest team, **Newport County. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Port Vale |
26% |
38% |
21% |
15% |

Newport County |
31% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Port Vale** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Newport County** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Port Vale** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Newport County** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.41 |

1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.41 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.48 |
3.62 |
3.12 |

2-3 goals |
2.55 |
3.60 |
3.02 |

4+ goals |
2.47 |
3.50 |
3.24 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.57 |
3.09 |

Un 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.62 |
3.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
7.26 |
2.57 |

Un 2.5 |
2.97 |
2.53 |
3.72 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.47 |
3.50 |
3.24 |

Un 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.61 |
3.06 |

Goal-Goal |
3.08 |
2.57 |
3.49 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
6.06 |
2.77 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
6.02 |
2.55 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.06 |
2.80 |

####
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###
Cheltenham vs Barrow at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cheltenham** and **Barrow** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cheltenham |
1.88 |
2.17 |
-7.1 |

Draw |
3.53 |
3.75 |
-1.7 |

Barrow |
4.00 |
3.68 |
2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.09 |
-2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.92 |
-3.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Barrow (2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** at home**.

Cheltenham,** at home**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Southend |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Scunthorpe |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Bradford |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Barrow** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barrow** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance** as a guest**.

Barrow,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 11 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 27.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Mar |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Salford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Cheltenham** is **1** and for the **Barrow** is **-0.045.**

The home dynamic for the **Cheltenham** is **0.327** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Barrow** is **-0.583.**

The offensive ability for the **Cheltenham** is **1** and for the **Barrow** is **0.207.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cheltenham** is **0.821** and for the **Barrow** is **0.227.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cheltenham** and the red line for guest team, **Barrow. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cheltenham |
22% |
33% |
26% |
18% |

Barrow |
33% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Barrow** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Barrow** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.44 |
3.59 |
3.20 |

2-3 goals |
2.04 |
4.08 |
3.77 |

4+ goals |
2.21 |
3.27 |
4.14 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.78 |
3.88 |

Un 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.59 |
3.20 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.73 |
3.32 |

Un 2.5 |
2.65 |
2.65 |
4.08 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.21 |
3.27 |
4.14 |

Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.90 |
3.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.56 |
2.68 |
4.23 |

No Goal |
1.87 |
6.49 |
3.22 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
5.59 |
3.23 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.49 |
3.12 |

####
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###
Crawley Town vs Walsall at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crawley Town** and **Walsall** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crawley Town |
2.21 |
2.32 |
-2.1 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.66 |
-2.7 |

Walsall |
3.28 |
3.38 |
-0.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.21 |
-1.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.82 |
-2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crawley Town** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crawley Town** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance** at home**.

Crawley Town,** at home**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 60.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Salford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Colchester |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** as a guest**.

Walsall,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 9 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Mar |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Crawley Town** is **0.727** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.877.**

The home dynamic for the **Crawley Town** is **0.364** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Walsall** is **0.155.**

The offensive ability for the **Crawley Town** is **1** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.674.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Crawley Town** is **1** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.597.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crawley Town** and the red line for guest team, **Walsall. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crawley Town |
26% |
31% |
27% |
15% |

Walsall |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crawley Town** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Crawley Town ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crawley Town** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.80 |
3.31 |
2.94 |

2-3 goals |
2.07 |
4.31 |
3.52 |

4+ goals |
2.47 |
3.03 |
3.79 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.83 |
3.60 |

Un 1.5 |
2.80 |
3.31 |
2.94 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.46 |
3.14 |

Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.70 |
3.61 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.47 |
3.03 |
3.79 |

Un 3.5 |
2.28 |
3.88 |
3.28 |

Goal-Goal |
2.62 |
2.65 |
4.14 |

No Goal |
2.09 |
5.83 |
2.86 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
5.39 |
3.17 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.83 |
2.84 |

####
Go to Top

###
Salford vs Colchester at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Salford** and **Colchester** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **16 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Salford |
1.62 |
2.22 |
-16.7 |

Draw |
3.90 |
3.73 |
1.2 |

Colchester |
5.44 |
3.56 |
9.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.10 |
-3.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.91 |
-0.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Colchester (1.2 %, 9.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** at home**.

Salford,** at home**, had 8 wins, 9 draws, no defeats and gathered 33 points, 64.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Mar |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Feb |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Cambridge |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Colchester** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Colchester** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance** as a guest**.

Colchester,** as a guest**, had one win, 8 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 20.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Carlisle |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Feb |
Exeter |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Salford** is **0.018** and for the **Colchester** is **-0.646.**

The home dynamic for the **Salford** is **0.714** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Colchester** is **-0.84.**

The offensive ability for the **Salford** is **0.13** and for the **Colchester** is **-0.674.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Salford** is **-0.053** and for the **Colchester** is **-0.545.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Salford** and the red line for guest team, **Colchester. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Salford |
23% |
32% |
28% |
17% |

Colchester |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.76 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **0.74 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Salford ** to win by **1.02** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.73 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |