2021 03 16 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Port Vale vs Newport County at 16 March 2021
Cheltenham vs Barrow at 16 March 2021
Crawley Town vs Walsall at 16 March 2021
Salford vs Colchester at 16 March 2021
Scunthorpe vs Oldham at 16 March 2021
Mansfield vs Carlisle at 16 March 2021
Grimsby vs Tranmere at 17 March 2021


Port Vale vs Newport County at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Port Vale and Newport County for League Two (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Port Vale

2.68

2.51

2.5

Draw

3.02

3.58

-5.2

Newport County

2.81

3.10

-3.3

Over 2.5

2.05

2.22

-3.7

Under 2.5

1.78

1.82

-1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Port Vale (2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Port Vale in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Port Vale in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance at home.
Port Vale, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Oldham

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Cheltenham

A

2

3

L

O

G

02 Mar

Salford

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Cambridge

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Stevenage

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Leyton Orient

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Tranmere

A

1

3

L

O

G


Newport County in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance as a guest.
Newport County, as a guest, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Morecambe

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Bradford

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Colchester

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Tranmere

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Stevenage

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Feb

Walsall

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Forest Green

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Feb

Exeter

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Port Vale is -0.609 and for the Newport County is 0.481.
The home dynamic for the Port Vale is -0.401 and the dynamic as a guest for the Newport County is 0.102.
The offensive ability for the Port Vale is -1 and for the Newport County is 0.269.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Port Vale is -0.084 and for the Newport County is 0.056.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Port Vale and the red line for guest team, Newport County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Port Vale

26%

38%

21%

15%

Newport County

31%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.22 goals and Newport County to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.26 goals and Newport County to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.41

1

4.72

2-3

2.04

2

3.89

4+

4.61

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.41

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.62

3.12

2-3 goals

2.55

3.60

3.02

4+ goals

2.47

3.50

3.24

Ov 1.5

2.52

3.57

3.09

Un 1.5

2.48

3.62

3.12

Ov 2.5

2.11

7.26

2.57

Un 2.5

2.97

2.53

3.72

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.50

3.24

Un 3.5

2.53

3.61

3.06

Goal-Goal

3.08

2.57

3.49

No Goal

2.11

6.06

2.77

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

6.02

2.55

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

6.06

2.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Cheltenham vs Barrow at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cheltenham and Barrow for League Two (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cheltenham

1.88

2.17

-7.1

Draw

3.53

3.75

-1.7

Barrow

4.00

3.68

2.2

Over 2.5

2.00

2.09

-2.2

Under 2.5

1.79

1.92

-3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Barrow (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cheltenham in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance at home.
Cheltenham, at home, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Exeter

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Mansfield

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Port Vale

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Mar

Southend

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Scunthorpe

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Cambridge

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Bradford

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Feb

Walsall

A

2

1

W

O

G


Barrow in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance as a guest.
Barrow, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 11 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 27.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Mar

Walsall

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Mansfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Harrogate

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Oldham

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Morecambe

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Salford

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Cambridge

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Cheltenham is 1 and for the Barrow is -0.045.
The home dynamic for the Cheltenham is 0.327 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barrow is -0.583.
The offensive ability for the Cheltenham is 1 and for the Barrow is 0.207.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cheltenham is 0.821 and for the Barrow is 0.227.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cheltenham and the red line for guest team, Barrow.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cheltenham

22%

33%

26%

18%

Barrow

33%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.54 goals and Barrow to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.41 goals and Barrow to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.76

1

5.21

2-3

1.99

2

3.91

4+

4.31

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.76

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.44

3.59

3.20

2-3 goals

2.04

4.08

3.77

4+ goals

2.21

3.27

4.14

Ov 1.5

2.09

3.78

3.88

Un 1.5

2.44

3.59

3.20

Ov 2.5

1.82

6.73

3.32

Un 2.5

2.65

2.65

4.08

Ov 3.5

2.21

3.27

4.14

Un 3.5

2.16

3.90

3.56

Goal-Goal

2.56

2.68

4.23

No Goal

1.87

6.49

3.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.96

5.59

3.23

NG+Un 2.5

2.03

6.49

3.12


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Crawley Town vs Walsall at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crawley Town and Walsall for League Two (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crawley Town

2.21

2.32

-2.1

Draw

3.33

3.66

-2.7

Walsall

3.28

3.38

-0.9

Over 2.5

2.12

2.21

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.73

1.82

-2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crawley Town in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance at home.
Crawley Town, at home, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 60.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Mansfield

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Salford

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Tranmere

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Morecambe

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Exeter

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Grimsby

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Colchester

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Stevenage

H

0

1

L

U

N


Walsall in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance as a guest.
Walsall, as a guest, had 3 wins, 9 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Mar

Barrow

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Cambridge

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Exeter

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Bradford

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Feb

Newport County

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Stevenage

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Feb

Cheltenham

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Crawley Town is 0.727 and for the Walsall is -0.877.
The home dynamic for the Crawley Town is 0.364 and the dynamic as a guest for the Walsall is 0.155.
The offensive ability for the Crawley Town is 1 and for the Walsall is -0.674.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crawley Town is 1 and for the Walsall is -0.597.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crawley Town and the red line for guest team, Walsall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crawley Town

26%

31%

27%

15%

Walsall

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.33 goals and Walsall to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Crawley Town to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.31 goals and Walsall to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.47

1

4.98

2-3

2.00

2

3.85

4+

4.72

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.47

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

3.31

2.94

2-3 goals

2.07

4.31

3.52

4+ goals

2.47

3.03

3.79

Ov 1.5

2.17

3.83

3.60

Un 1.5

2.80

3.31

2.94

Ov 2.5

1.90

6.46

3.14

Un 2.5

2.84

2.70

3.61

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.03

3.79

Un 3.5

2.28

3.88

3.28

Goal-Goal

2.62

2.65

4.14

No Goal

2.09

5.83

2.86

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

5.39

3.17

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

5.83

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Salford vs Colchester at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Salford and Colchester for League Two (England), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salford

1.62

2.22

-16.7

Draw

3.90

3.73

1.2

Colchester

5.44

3.56

9.7

Over 2.5

1.95

2.10

-3.7

Under 2.5

1.88

1.91

-0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Colchester (1.2 %, 9.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salford in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance at home.
Salford, at home, had 8 wins, 9 draws, no defeats and gathered 33 points, 64.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Crawley Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Scunthorpe

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Port Vale

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Feb

Morecambe

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Carlisle

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Feb

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cambridge

H

4

1

W

O

G


Colchester in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance as a guest.
Colchester, as a guest, had one win, 8 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 20.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Grimsby

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Harrogate

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Mar

Newport County

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Carlisle

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Forest Green

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Feb

Exeter

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Crawley Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Mansfield

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Salford is 0.018 and for the Colchester is -0.646.
The home dynamic for the Salford is 0.714 and the dynamic as a guest for the Colchester is -0.84.
The offensive ability for the Salford is 0.13 and for the Colchester is -0.674.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Salford is -0.053 and for the Colchester is -0.545.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salford and the red line for guest team, Colchester.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salford

23%

32%

28%

17%

Colchester

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salford to score 1.76 goals and Colchester to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salford to score 1.38 goals and Colchester to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.73

1

5.24

2-3

1.99

2

3.91

4+

4.35

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.73

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-