# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Torino vs Sassuolo at 17 March 2021**** Juventus vs Napoli at 17 March 2021**

###
Torino vs Sassuolo at 17 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Torino** and **Sassuolo** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **17 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Torino |
3.37 |
2.82 |
5.8 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.58 |
-2.2 |

Sassuolo |
2.26 |
2.72 |
-7.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.81 |
2.07 |
-6.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
1.93 |
2.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Torino, Under 2.5 (5.8 %, 2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Torino** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Torino** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance** at home**.

Torino,** at home**, had no wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 19.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Inter |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Crotone |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Feb |
Cagliari |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Genoa |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Atalanta |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Fiorentina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Jan |
Benevento |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Spezia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Sassuolo** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sassuolo** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance** as a guest**.

Sassuolo,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 53.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Verona |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Udinese |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Napoli |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Crotone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Spezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Cagliari |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Jan |
Lazio |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Torino** is **-0.027** and for the **Sassuolo** is **-0.086.**

The home dynamic for the **Torino** is **-0.724** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sassuolo** is **0.241.**

The offensive ability for the **Torino** is **0.614** and for the **Sassuolo** is **0.559.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Torino** is **-0.053** and for the **Sassuolo** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Torino** and the red line for guest team, **Sassuolo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Torino |
34% |
20% |
35% |
11% |

Sassuolo |
35% |
20% |
30% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Torino** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Sassuolo** to score **1.52 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and the guest team **Sassuolo ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Torino** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Sassuolo** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.55 |
0-1 |
3.94 |

1 |
7.30 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
3.80 |

3 |
4.52 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
2.30 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.80 |

NoG |
1.77 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.58 |
2.17 |
3.85 |

2-3 goals |
2.12 |
12.07 |
2.25 |

4+ goals |
4.78 |
2.16 |
3.06 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.64 |
4.60 |
2.48 |

Un 1.5 |
3.58 |
2.17 |
3.85 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.99 |
3.97 |
2.42 |

Un 2.5 |
2.69 |
3.29 |
3.09 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.78 |
2.16 |
3.06 |

Un 3.5 |
2.46 |
4.69 |
2.62 |

Goal-Goal |
3.50 |
2.68 |
2.93 |

No Goal |
2.46 |
4.84 |
2.58 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.18 |
3.23 |
2.66 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.48 |
4.84 |
2.85 |

####
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###
Juventus vs Napoli at 17 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Juventus** and **Napoli** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **17 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Juventus |
1.87 |
2.24 |
-8.8 |

Draw |
3.67 |
3.79 |
-0.9 |

Napoli |
4.30 |
3.46 |
5.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.80 |
2.08 |
-7.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
1.93 |
3.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Napoli, Under 2.5 (5.6 %, 3.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Juventus** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Juventus** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance** at home**.

Juventus,** at home**, had 10 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 32 points, 82.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Cagliari |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Lazio |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Spezia |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Verona |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Feb |
Crotone |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Napoli |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Roma |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Sampdoria |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Napoli** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Napoli** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance** as a guest**.

Napoli,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Milan |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Bologna |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Sassuolo |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Benevento |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Atalanta |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Genoa |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Parma |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Juventus** is **0.927** and for the **Napoli** is **0.481.**

The home dynamic for the **Juventus** is **1** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Napoli** is **0.305.**

The offensive ability for the **Juventus** is **0.668** and for the **Napoli** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Juventus** is **-0.084** and for the **Napoli** is **0.142.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Juventus** and the red line for guest team, **Napoli. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Juventus |
26% |
27% |
30% |
17% |

Napoli |
38% |
25% |
27% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Juventus** to score **1.73 ** goals and **Napoli** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the home team **Juventus ** to win by **0.78** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Juventus** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Napoli** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.10 |
0-1 |
3.75 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.15 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |

5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.15 |

NoG |
1.85 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.59 |
2.70 |
4.11 |

2-3 goals |
1.93 |
7.22 |
2.92 |

4+ goals |
2.71 |
2.48 |
4.38 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.13 |
4.44 |
3.28 |

Un 1.5 |
2.59 |
2.70 |
4.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
4.95 |
3.14 |

Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
3.11 |
3.84 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.71 |
2.48 |
4.38 |

Un 3.5 |
2.12 |
4.54 |
3.25 |

Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.77 |
3.57 |

No Goal |
1.92 |
5.47 |
3.39 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
4.01 |
3.04 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.47 |
3.34 |

####
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