2021 03 16 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Torino vs Sassuolo at 17 March 2021
Juventus vs Napoli at 17 March 2021


Torino vs Sassuolo at 17 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Torino and Sassuolo for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 17 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torino

3.37

2.82

5.8

Draw

3.32

3.58

-2.2

Sassuolo

2.26

2.72

-7.5

Over 2.5

1.81

2.07

-6.9

Under 2.5

2.03

1.93

2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Torino, Under 2.5 (5.8 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torino in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance at home.
Torino, at home, had no wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 19.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Inter

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Crotone

A

2

4

L

O

G

19 Feb

Cagliari

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Genoa

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Atalanta

A

3

3

D

O

G

29 Jan

Fiorentina

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Jan

Benevento

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Spezia

H

0

0

D

U

N


Sassuolo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance as a guest.
Sassuolo, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 53.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Verona

H

3

2

W

O

G

06 Mar

Udinese

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Napoli

H

3

3

D

O

G

20 Feb

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Spezia

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Cagliari

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Torino is -0.027 and for the Sassuolo is -0.086.
The home dynamic for the Torino is -0.724 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sassuolo is 0.241.
The offensive ability for the Torino is 0.614 and for the Sassuolo is 0.559.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Torino is -0.053 and for the Sassuolo is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torino and the red line for guest team, Sassuolo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torino

34%

20%

35%

11%

Sassuolo

35%

20%

30%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torino to score 1.14 goals and Sassuolo to score 1.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Sassuolo to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torino to score 1.23 goals and Sassuolo to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.55

0-1

3.94

1

7.30

2-3

2.07

2

3.82

4+

3.80

3

4.52

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.94

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

2.30

Ov 3.5

3.80

NoG

1.77

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.58

2.17

3.85

2-3 goals

2.12

12.07

2.25

4+ goals

4.78

2.16

3.06

Ov 1.5

2.64

4.60

2.48

Un 1.5

3.58

2.17

3.85

Ov 2.5

2.99

3.97

2.42

Un 2.5

2.69

3.29

3.09

Ov 3.5

4.78

2.16

3.06

Un 3.5

2.46

4.69

2.62

Goal-Goal

3.50

2.68

2.93

No Goal

2.46

4.84

2.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.18

3.23

2.66

NG+Un 2.5

2.48

4.84

2.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Juventus vs Napoli at 17 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Juventus and Napoli for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 17 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Juventus

1.87

2.24

-8.8

Draw

3.67

3.79

-0.9

Napoli

4.30

3.46

5.6

Over 2.5

1.80

2.08

-7.5

Under 2.5

2.07

1.93

3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Napoli, Under 2.5 (5.6 %, 3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Juventus in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance at home.
Juventus, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 32 points, 82.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Cagliari

A

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Lazio

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Spezia

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Verona

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Feb

Crotone

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Napoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Roma

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Sampdoria

A

2

0

W

U

N


Napoli in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Napoli in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance as a guest.
Napoli, as a guest, had 7 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Milan

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Bologna

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Mar

Sassuolo

A

3

3

D

O

G

28 Feb

Benevento

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Atalanta

A

2

4

L

O

G

13 Feb

Juventus

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Genoa

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Parma

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Juventus is 0.927 and for the Napoli is 0.481.
The home dynamic for the Juventus is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Napoli is 0.305.
The offensive ability for the Juventus is 0.668 and for the Napoli is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Juventus is -0.084 and for the Napoli is 0.142.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Napoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Juventus

26%

27%

30%

17%

Napoli

38%

25%

27%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.73 goals and Napoli to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.38 goals and Napoli to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.75

1

5.95

2-3

2.04

2

3.97

4+

4.15

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.75

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

4.15

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.59

2.70

4.11

2-3 goals

1.93

7.22

2.92

4+ goals

2.71

2.48

4.38

Ov 1.5

2.13

4.44

3.28

Un 1.5

2.59

2.70

4.11

Ov 2.5

2.09

4.95

3.14

Un 2.5

2.39

3.11

3.84

Ov 3.5

2.71

2.48

4.38

Un 3.5

2.12

4.54

3.25

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.77

3.57

No Goal

1.92

5.47

3.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.37

4.01

3.04

NG+Un 2.5

2.08

5.47

3.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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