2021 03 16 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Virtus Entella vs Cremonese at 16 March 2021
Venezia vs Lecce at 16 March 2021
Pescara vs Ascoli at 16 March 2021
Monza vs Reggiana at 16 March 2021
Empoli vs Pordenone at 16 March 2021
Cittadella vs Salernitana at 16 March 2021
Brescia vs Reggina at 16 March 2021
Chievo vs Frosinone at 16 March 2021


Virtus Entella vs Cremonese at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Entella and Cremonese for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Virtus Entella

3.82

2.57

12.7

Draw

3.22

3.62

-3.4

Cremonese

2.02

2.99

-16.1

Over 2.5

2.07

2.16

-2.0

Under 2.5

1.75

1.87

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Virtus Entella (12.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Virtus Entella in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella didn’t score to any of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance at home.
Virtus Entella, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Mar

Spal

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Ascoli

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Lecce

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Brescia

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Venezia

A

2

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Frosinone

H

2

3

L

O

G

10 Feb

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Feb

Reggiana

A

1

2

L

O

G


Cremonese in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cremonese in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cremonese’s performance as a guest.
Cremonese, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cremonese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Reggiana

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Salernitana

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Vicenza

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Frosinone

H

4

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Brescia

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Lecce

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Venezia

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Pisa

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Virtus Entella is -0.118 and for the Cremonese is -0.095.
The home dynamic for the Virtus Entella is -0.622 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cremonese is -0.219.
The offensive ability for the Virtus Entella is -0.345 and for the Cremonese is 0.559.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Virtus Entella is 0.579 and for the Cremonese is -0.167.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Virtus Entella and the red line for guest team, Cremonese.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Virtus Entella

26%

33%

29%

11%

Cremonese

29%

37%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 0.93 goals and Cremonese to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the guest team Cremonese to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.25 goals and Cremonese to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.68

1

5.13

2-3

1.97

2

3.79

4+

4.57

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.68

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

3.53

2.78

2-3 goals

2.24

4.09

3.23

4+ goals

3.37

2.92

2.77

Ov 1.5

2.49

3.65

3.08

Un 1.5

2.80

3.53

2.78

Ov 2.5

2.24

6.16

2.55

Un 2.5

2.95

2.67

3.50

Ov 3.5

3.37

2.92

2.77

Un 3.5

2.41

3.88

3.05

Goal-Goal

3.01

2.61

3.51

No Goal

2.22

6.21

2.57

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

5.28

2.68

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

6.21

2.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Venezia vs Lecce at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Venezia and Lecce for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Venezia

2.89

2.54

4.8

Draw

3.12

3.61

-4.4

Lecce

2.47

3.04

-7.6

Over 2.5

2.03

2.18

-3.4

Under 2.5

1.78

1.85

-2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Venezia (4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Venezia in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance at home.
Venezia, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Ascoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Brescia

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Mar

Reggiana

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Feb

Empoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Virtus Entella

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cremonese

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Frosinone

A

2

1

W

O

G


Lecce in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lecce in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance as a guest.
Lecce, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Chievo

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Mar

Reggiana

A

4

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Virtus Entella

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Pescara

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Cosenza

H

3

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Cremonese

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Brescia

H

2

2

D

O

G

05 Feb

Ascoli

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Venezia is 0.564 and for the Lecce is 0.63.
The home dynamic for the Venezia is 0.3 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lecce is 0.775.
The offensive ability for the Venezia is 0.552 and for the Lecce is 0.586.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Venezia is -0.611 and for the Lecce is -0.167.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Lecce.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Venezia

26%

36%

27%

12%

Lecce

31%

36%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.14 goals and Lecce to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.26 goals and Lecce to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.57

1

4.98

2-3

2.00

2

3.82

4+

4.55

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.57

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

3.54

3.08

2-3 goals

2.33

3.94

3.15

4+ goals

3.14

3.10

2.78

Ov 1.5

2.53

3.64

3.03

Un 1.5

2.55

3.54

3.08

Ov 2.5

2.26

6.46

2.48

Un 2.5

2.82

2.63

3.76

Ov 3.5

3.14

3.10

2.78

Un 3.5

2.40

3.79

3.12

Goal-Goal

3.13

2.61

3.37

No Goal

2.11

6.14

2.76

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.36

5.48

2.54

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

6.14

2.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pescara vs Ascoli at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pescara and Ascoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pescara

2.44

2.56

-1.9

Draw

2.99

3.46

-4.5

Ascoli

3.15

3.12

0.3

Over 2.5

2.32

2.32

0.0

Under 2.5

1.61

1.76

-5.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ascoli (0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pescara in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance at home.
Pescara, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Pordenone

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Spal

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Cittadella

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Lecce

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Frosinone

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Feb

Venezia

H

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Empoli

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Reggina

H

0

2

L

U

N


Ascoli in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance as a guest.
Ascoli, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Venezia

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Virtus Entella

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Pisa

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Salernitana

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Feb

Reggiana

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Frosinone

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Feb

Lecce

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Pescara is 0.045 and for the Ascoli is -0.621.
The home dynamic for the Pescara is -0.889 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ascoli is -0.679.
The offensive ability for the Pescara is -0.614 and for the Ascoli is -0.524.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pescara is 0.474 and for the Ascoli is -0.571.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pescara and the red line for guest team, Ascoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pescara

26%

37%

25%

12%

Ascoli

30%

40%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.19 goals and Ascoli to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.22 goals and Ascoli to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.40

1

4.63

2-3

1.96

2

3.64

4+

5.15

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.46

Un 1.5

3.40

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.34

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.77

2.80

2-3 goals

2.42

3.39

3.42

4+ goals

2.81

3.23

2.98

Ov 1.5

2.52

3.35

3.29

Un 1.5

2.65

3.77

2.80

Ov 2.5

2.10

7.13

2.61

Un 2.5

3.06

2.50

3.67

Ov 3.5

2.81

3.23

2.98

Un 3.5

2.50

3.52

3.16

Goal-Goal

3.04

2.46

3.77

No Goal

2.18

6.15

2.64

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.16

6.12

2.68

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

6.15

2.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Monza vs Reggiana at 16 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monza and Reggiana for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 16 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Monza

1.49

1.81

-11.9

Draw

3.99

3.95

0.3

Reggiana

7.00

5.18

5.0

Over 2.5

1.97

2.21

-5.5

Under 2.5

1.81

1.82

-0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Reggiana (0.3 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Monza in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance at home.
Monza, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Pordenone

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Frosinone

A

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Cittadella

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Chievo

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Feb

Pisa

H

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Vicenza

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Empoli

H

1

1

D

U

G


Reggiana in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggiana in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance as a guest.
Reggiana, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Cremonese

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Mar

Lecce

H

0

4

L

O

N

01 Mar

Venezia

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Feb

Salernitana

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Cittadella

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Feb

Ascoli

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Feb

Chievo

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Feb

Virtus Entella

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Monza is 0.227 and for the Reggiana is -0.416.
The home dynamic for the Monza is 0.327 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reggiana is -0.84.
The offensive ability for the Monza is -0.193 and for the Reggiana is -0.295.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Monza is 0.4 and for the Reggiana is 0.03.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Monza and the red line for guest team, Reggiana.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Monza

18%

36%

24%

22%

Reggiana

43%

35%

16%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monza to score 1.84 goals and Reggiana to score 0.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Monza to win by 1.22 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monza to score 1.52 goals and Reggiana to score 0.85 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Monza to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.46

1

4.67

2-3

1.97

2

3.88

4+

4.93

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.46

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

4.93

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-