2021 03 19 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Heerenveen vs Twente at 19 March 2021
Waalwijk vs Groningen at 20 March 2021
For Sittard vs Utrecht at 20 March 2021
Feyenoord vs FC Emmen at 20 March 2021
Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam at 21 March 2021
Vitesse vs Willem II at 21 March 2021
AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven at 21 March 2021
Ajax vs Den Haag at 21 March 2021
Zwolle vs VVV Venlo at 21 March 2021


Heerenveen vs Twente at 19 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Heerenveen and Twente for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 19 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Heerenveen

2.72

2.15

9.7

Draw

3.48

3.97

-3.5

Twente

2.50

3.55

-11.8

Over 2.5

1.74

1.81

-2.2

Under 2.5

2.13

2.24

-2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Heerenveen (9.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Heerenveen in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heerenveen in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heerenveen’s performance at home.
Heerenveen, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heerenveen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Willem II

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Den Haag

H

3

0

W

O

N

26 Feb

Zwolle

A

1

4

L

O

G

21 Feb

Groningen

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Vitesse

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Twente

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Feyenoord

H

3

0

W

O

N


Twente in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Twente in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance as a guest.
Twente, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

4

L

O

G

06 Mar

Willem II

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Heracles

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Feyenoord

H

2

2

D

O

G

14 Feb

Vitesse

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

Heerenveen

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Heerenveen is -0.2 and for the Twente is -0.12.
The home dynamic for the Heerenveen is 0.021 and the dynamic as a guest for the Twente is 0.367.
The offensive ability for the Heerenveen is 1 and for the Twente is 0.682.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Heerenveen is -0.356 and for the Twente is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Heerenveen and the red line for guest team, Twente.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Heerenveen

22%

28%

26%

25%

Twente

29%

38%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heerenveen to score 1.33 goals and Twente to score 1.42 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heerenveen to score 1.53 goals and Twente to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the home team Heerenveen to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

4.44

1

6.17

2-3

2.10

2

4.48

4+

3.33

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.49

Un 1.5

4.44

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

30.30

Un 2.5

2.23

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.33

NoG

2.25

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.81

3.57

2.74

2-3 goals

1.95

4.59

3.70

4+ goals

2.10

3.53

4.17

Ov 1.5

2.01

4.11

3.87

Un 1.5

2.81

3.57

2.74

Ov 2.5

1.78

6.52

3.53

Un 2.5

2.89

2.68

3.56

Ov 3.5

2.10

3.53

4.17

Un 3.5

2.17

4.20

3.33

Goal-Goal

2.32

2.95

4.36

No Goal

1.96

7.05

2.86

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.34

3.55

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

7.05

2.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Waalwijk vs Groningen at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Waalwijk and Groningen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Waalwijk

3.09

2.45

8.5

Draw

3.17

3.94

-6.2

Groningen

2.36

2.95

-8.5

Over 2.5

2.23

1.60

17.7

Under 2.5

1.67

2.66

-22.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Waalwijk, Over 2.5 (8.5 %, 17.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Waalwijk in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance at home.
Waalwijk, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Sparta Rotterdam

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Utrecht

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Den Haag

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Heracles

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Feb

FC Emmen

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Zwolle

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Vitesse

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Jan

For Sittard

H

1

2

L

O

G


Groningen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance as a guest.
Groningen, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

FC Emmen

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Ajax

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Feb

For Sittard

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Feyenoord

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Heerenveen

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Zwolle

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Heracles

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Den Haag

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Waalwijk is -0.074 and for the Groningen is 0.216.
The home dynamic for the Waalwijk is -0.745 and the dynamic as a guest for the Groningen is 0.156.
The offensive ability for the Waalwijk is 0.13 and for the Groningen is 0.631.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Waalwijk is -0.037 and for the Groningen is 0.104.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Waalwijk and the red line for guest team, Groningen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Waalwijk

21%

28%

25%

26%

Groningen

21%

34%

26%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.02 goals and Groningen to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.56 goals and Groningen to score 1.43 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

22.22

0-1

5.71

1

7.69

2-3

2.20

2

4.95

4+

2.69

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.21

4

4.85

Un 1.5

5.71

5

8.70

Ov 2.5

1.60

6+

19.61

Un 2.5

2.65

Gg

1.61

Ov 3.5

2.69

NoG

2.65

Un 3.5

1.59

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.92

3.89

2.50

2-3 goals

2.34

4.78

2.75

4+ goals

2.43

3.23

3.58

Ov 1.5

2.38

3.93

3.07

Un 1.5

2.92

3.89

2.50

Ov 2.5

2.13

5.43

2.89

Un 2.5

3.31

2.69

3.07

Ov 3.5

2.43

3.23

3.58

Un 3.5

2.48

4.49

2.68

Goal-Goal

2.63

2.97

3.54

No Goal

2.22

8.40

2.32

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

4.59

3.00

NG+Un 2.5

2.47

8.40

2.29


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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For Sittard vs Utrecht at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between For Sittard and Utrecht for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

For Sittard

4.31

2.62

15.0

Draw

4.01

3.68

2.2

Utrecht

1.75

2.88

-22.4

Over 2.5

1.68

1.82

-4.6

Under 2.5

2.25

2.21

0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at For Sittard, Draw, Under 2.5 (15 %, 2.2 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

For Sittard in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, For Sittard in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance at home.
For Sittard, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

VVV Venlo

A

3

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

PSV Eindhoven

H

1

3

L

O

G

28 Feb

Groningen

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Den Haag

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Sparta Rotterdam

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Feb

Heracles

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

VVV Venlo

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Jan

Waalwijk

A

2

1

W

O

G


Utrecht in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Utrecht in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance as a guest.
Utrecht, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Vitesse

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Waalwijk

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

FC Emmen

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Feb

Willem II

A

6

0

W

O

N

14 Feb

VVV Venlo

H

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Zwolle

H

3

3

D

O

G

27 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the For Sittard is 0.015 and for the Utrecht is 0.216.
The home dynamic for the For Sittard is -0.415 and the dynamic as a guest for the Utrecht is 0.165.
The offensive ability for the For Sittard is 0.278 and for the Utrecht is 0.597.
Finally, the defensive ability for the For Sittard is -0.681 and for the Utrecht is -0.626.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, For Sittard and the red line for guest team, Utrecht.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

For Sittard

23%

34%

22%

21%

Utrecht

20%

43%

22%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) For Sittard to score 0.97 goals and Utrecht to score 1.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the guest team Utrecht to win by 0.91 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.41 goals and Utrecht to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

21.74

0-1

4.72

1

6.02

2-3

2.06

2

4.18

4+

3.32

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.27

4

5.29

Un 1.5

4.72

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.83

6+

31.25

Un 2.5

2.22

Gg

1.63

Ov 3.5

3.32

NoG

2.61

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.16

4.61

2.14

2-3 goals

2.72

3.34

2.99

4+ goals

2.23

3.76

3.50

Ov 1.5

2.51

3.49

3.17

Un 1.5

3.16

4.61

2.14

Ov 2.5

2.03

6.84

2.78

Un 2.5

4.10

2.36

3.01

Ov 3.5

2.23

3.76

3.50

Un 3.5

2.84

3.65

2.67

Goal-Goal

2.69

2.73

3.82

No Goal

2.54

8.33

2.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.87

2.92

NG+Un 2.5

2.78

8.33

2.04


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Feyenoord vs FC Emmen at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Feyenoord and FC Emmen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Feyenoord

1.33

1.51

-9.0

Draw

5.32

5.13

0.7

FC Emmen

8.60

7.04

2.6

Over 2.5

1.48

1.68

-8.0

Under 2.5

2.61

2.47

2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, FC Emmen, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 2.6 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

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Basic data and latest results

Feyenoord in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Feyenoord in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Feyenoord scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Feyenoord’s performance at home.
Feyenoord, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 69.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Feyenoord was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

PSV Eindhoven

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

VVV Venlo

H

6

0

W

O

N

28 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

A

2

4

L

O

G

24 Feb

Groningen

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Twente

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Feb

Willem II

H

5

0

W

O

N

31 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Jan

Heerenveen

A

0

3

L

O

N


FC Emmen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance as a guest.
FC Emmen, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 17.9% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Groningen

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Mar

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Utrecht

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Zwolle

H

3

2

W

O

G

12 Feb

Waalwijk

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Jan

Willem II

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Feyenoord is 0.148 and for the FC Emmen is 0.136.
The home dynamic for the Feyenoord is 0.33 and the dynamic as a guest for the FC Emmen is -0.595.
The offensive ability for the Feyenoord is 0.626 and for the FC Emmen is 0.339.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Feyenoord is -0.037 and for the FC Emmen is -0.591.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Feyenoord and the red line for guest team, FC Emmen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Feyenoord

12%

18%

34%

36%

FC Emmen

49%

24%

17%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Feyenoord to score 2.55 goals and FC Emmen to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.19 goals in the game and the home team Feyenoord to win by 1.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Feyenoord to score 1.95 goals and FC Emmen to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the home team Feyenoord to win by 1.07 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.95

0-1

5.71

1

8.62

2-3

1.88

2

4.35

4+

3.41

3

3.31

Ov 1.5

1.21

4

6.17

Un 1.5

5.71

5

10.42

Ov 2.5

1.68

6+

28.57

Un 2.5

2.47

Gg

2.23

Ov 3.5

3.41

NoG

1.81