# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Heerenveen vs Twente at 19 March 2021**** Waalwijk vs Groningen at 20 March 2021**** For Sittard vs Utrecht at 20 March 2021**** Feyenoord vs FC Emmen at 20 March 2021**** Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam at 21 March 2021**** Vitesse vs Willem II at 21 March 2021**** AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven at 21 March 2021**** Ajax vs Den Haag at 21 March 2021**** Zwolle vs VVV Venlo at 21 March 2021**

###
Heerenveen vs Twente at 19 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Heerenveen** and **Twente** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **19 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Heerenveen |
2.72 |
2.15 |
9.7 |

Draw |
3.48 |
3.97 |
-3.5 |

Twente |
2.50 |
3.55 |
-11.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.81 |
-2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.24 |
-2.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Heerenveen (9.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Heerenveen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heerenveen** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heerenveen’s performance** at home**.

Heerenveen,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Heerenveen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Willem II |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Den Haag |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Feb |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Twente |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Feyenoord |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Twente** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Twente** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance** as a guest**.

Twente,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Vitesse |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Heerenveen** is **-0.2** and for the **Twente** is **-0.12.**

The home dynamic for the **Heerenveen** is **0.021** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Twente** is **0.367.**

The offensive ability for the **Heerenveen** is **1** and for the **Twente** is **0.682.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Heerenveen** is **-0.356** and for the **Twente** is **-0.652.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Heerenveen** and the red line for guest team, **Twente. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Heerenveen |
22% |
28% |
26% |
25% |

Twente |
29% |
38% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Heerenveen** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Twente** to score **1.42 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.75** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.09** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Heerenveen** to score **1.53 ** goals and **Twente** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the home team **Heerenveen ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
4.44 |

1 |
6.17 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.48 |
4+ |
3.33 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.49 |
Un 1.5 |
4.44 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.23 |

Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.33 |

NoG |
2.25 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.81 |
3.57 |
2.74 |

2-3 goals |
1.95 |
4.59 |
3.70 |

4+ goals |
2.10 |
3.53 |
4.17 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.01 |
4.11 |
3.87 |

Un 1.5 |
2.81 |
3.57 |
2.74 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |
6.52 |
3.53 |

Un 2.5 |
2.89 |
2.68 |
3.56 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.10 |
3.53 |
4.17 |

Un 3.5 |
2.17 |
4.20 |
3.33 |

Goal-Goal |
2.32 |
2.95 |
4.36 |

No Goal |
1.96 |
7.05 |
2.86 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
5.34 |
3.55 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
7.05 |
2.73 |

####
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###
Waalwijk vs Groningen at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Waalwijk** and **Groningen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Waalwijk |
3.09 |
2.45 |
8.5 |

Draw |
3.17 |
3.94 |
-6.2 |

Groningen |
2.36 |
2.95 |
-8.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.23 |
1.60 |
17.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
2.66 |
-22.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Waalwijk, Over 2.5 (8.5 %, 17.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** at home**.

Waalwijk,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Den Haag |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Feb |
FC Emmen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Groningen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Groningen** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance** as a guest**.

Groningen,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
FC Emmen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
Ajax |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Feyenoord |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Zwolle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Waalwijk** is **-0.074** and for the **Groningen** is **0.216.**

The home dynamic for the **Waalwijk** is **-0.745** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Groningen** is **0.156.**

The offensive ability for the **Waalwijk** is **0.13** and for the **Groningen** is **0.631.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Waalwijk** is **-0.037** and for the **Groningen** is **0.104.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Waalwijk** and the red line for guest team, **Groningen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Waalwijk |
21% |
28% |
25% |
26% |

Groningen |
21% |
34% |
26% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Groningen** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.22** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Groningen** to score **1.43 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.99** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
22.22 |
0-1 |
5.71 |

1 |
7.69 |
2-3 |
2.20 |

2 |
4.95 |
4+ |
2.69 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.21 |

4 |
4.85 |
Un 1.5 |
5.71 |

5 |
8.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.60 |

6+ |
19.61 |
Un 2.5 |
2.65 |

Gg |
1.61 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.69 |

NoG |
2.65 |
Un 3.5 |
1.59 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.89 |
2.50 |

2-3 goals |
2.34 |
4.78 |
2.75 |

4+ goals |
2.43 |
3.23 |
3.58 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.38 |
3.93 |
3.07 |

Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
3.89 |
2.50 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.43 |
2.89 |

Un 2.5 |
3.31 |
2.69 |
3.07 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.43 |
3.23 |
3.58 |

Un 3.5 |
2.48 |
4.49 |
2.68 |

Goal-Goal |
2.63 |
2.97 |
3.54 |

No Goal |
2.22 |
8.40 |
2.32 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
4.59 |
3.00 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
8.40 |
2.29 |

####
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###
For Sittard vs Utrecht at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **For Sittard** and **Utrecht** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

For Sittard |
4.31 |
2.62 |
15.0 |

Draw |
4.01 |
3.68 |
2.2 |

Utrecht |
1.75 |
2.88 |
-22.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.82 |
-4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.25 |
2.21 |
0.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **For Sittard, Draw, Under 2.5 (15 %, 2.2 %, 0.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**For Sittard** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **For Sittard** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance** at home**.

For Sittard,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
VVV Venlo |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Den Haag |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Heracles |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Utrecht** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Utrecht** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance** as a guest**.

Utrecht,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Waalwijk |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Willem II |
A |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Zwolle |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **For Sittard** is **0.015** and for the **Utrecht** is **0.216.**

The home dynamic for the **For Sittard** is **-0.415** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Utrecht** is **0.165.**

The offensive ability for the **For Sittard** is **0.278** and for the **Utrecht** is **0.597.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **For Sittard** is **-0.681** and for the **Utrecht** is **-0.626.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **For Sittard** and the red line for guest team, **Utrecht. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

For Sittard |
23% |
34% |
22% |
21% |

Utrecht |
20% |
43% |
22% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **For Sittard** to score **0.97 ** goals and **Utrecht** to score **1.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.85** goals in the game and the guest team **Utrecht ** to win by **0.91** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **For Sittard** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Utrecht** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
21.74 |
0-1 |
4.72 |

1 |
6.02 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
3.32 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.27 |

4 |
5.29 |
Un 1.5 |
4.72 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.22 |

Gg |
1.63 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.32 |

NoG |
2.61 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.16 |
4.61 |
2.14 |

2-3 goals |
2.72 |
3.34 |
2.99 |

4+ goals |
2.23 |
3.76 |
3.50 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.51 |
3.49 |
3.17 |

Un 1.5 |
3.16 |
4.61 |
2.14 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.84 |
2.78 |

Un 2.5 |
4.10 |
2.36 |
3.01 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.23 |
3.76 |
3.50 |

Un 3.5 |
2.84 |
3.65 |
2.67 |

Goal-Goal |
2.69 |
2.73 |
3.82 |

No Goal |
2.54 |
8.33 |
2.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.87 |
2.92 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
8.33 |
2.04 |

####
Go to Top

###
Feyenoord vs FC Emmen at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Feyenoord** and **FC Emmen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Feyenoord |
1.33 |
1.51 |
-9.0 |

Draw |
5.32 |
5.13 |
0.7 |

FC Emmen |
8.60 |
7.04 |
2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.68 |
-8.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.47 |
2.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, FC Emmen, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 2.6 %, 2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Feyenoord** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Feyenoord** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Feyenoord** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Feyenoord’s performance** at home**.

Feyenoord,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 69.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Feyenoord was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
VVV Venlo |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Twente |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Willem II |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**FC Emmen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Emmen** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance** as a guest**.

FC Emmen,** as a guest**, had one win, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 17.9% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Mar |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Zwolle |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Feb |
Waalwijk |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Feyenoord** is **0.148** and for the **FC Emmen** is **0.136.**

The home dynamic for the **Feyenoord** is **0.33** and the dynamic as a guest for the **FC Emmen** is **-0.595.**

The offensive ability for the **Feyenoord** is **0.626** and for the **FC Emmen** is **0.339.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Feyenoord** is **-0.037** and for the **FC Emmen** is **-0.591.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Feyenoord** and the red line for guest team, **FC Emmen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Feyenoord |
12% |
18% |
34% |
36% |

FC Emmen |
49% |
24% |
17% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Feyenoord** to score **2.55 ** goals and **FC Emmen** to score **0.63 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.19** goals in the game and the home team **Feyenoord ** to win by **1.92** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Feyenoord** to score **1.95 ** goals and **FC Emmen** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.83** goals in the game and the home team **Feyenoord ** to win by **1.07** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.95 |
0-1 |
5.71 |

1 |
8.62 |
2-3 |
1.88 |

2 |
4.35 |
4+ |
3.41 |

3 |
3.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.21 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
5.71 |

5 |
10.42 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |

6+ |
28.57 |
Un 2.5 |
2.47 |

Gg |
2.23 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.41 |

NoG |
1.81 |