# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Betis vs Levante at 19 March 2021**** Valladolid vs Sevilla at 20 March 2021**** Celta vs Real Madrid at 20 March 2021**** Ath Bilbao vs Eibar at 20 March 2021**** Huesca vs Osasuna at 20 March 2021**** Valencia vs Granada at 21 March 2021**** Villarreal vs Cadiz at 21 March 2021**** Sociedad vs Barcelona at 21 March 2021**** Ath Madrid vs Alaves at 21 March 2021**** Getafe vs Elche at 21 March 2021**

###
Betis vs Levante at 19 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Betis** and **Levante** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **19 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Betis |
1.83 |
2.33 |
-11.7 |

Draw |
3.71 |
3.85 |
-1.0 |

Levante |
4.43 |
3.22 |
8.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.99 |
-5.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.01 |
1.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Levante, Under 2.5 (8.5 %, 1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Betis** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Betis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Betis** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Betis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance** at home**.

Betis,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Betis scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Betis was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
Alaves |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Cadiz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Getafe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Villarreal |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Barcelona |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Feb |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Sociedad |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Levante** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Levante** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance** as a guest**.

Levante,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Mar |
Valencia |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Sociedad |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Feb |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Osasuna |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Granada |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Real Madrid |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Betis** is **0.333** and for the **Levante** is **0.12.**

The home dynamic for the **Betis** is **0.117** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Levante** is **-0.308.**

The offensive ability for the **Betis** is **0.539** and for the **Levante** is **0.253.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Betis** is **-0.333** and for the **Levante** is **-0.157.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Betis** and the red line for guest team, **Levante. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Betis |
24% |
31% |
26% |
18% |

Levante |
34% |
31% |
22% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Betis** to score **1.75 ** goals and **Levante** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the home team **Betis ** to win by **0.82** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Betis** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Levante** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.20 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
3.86 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
13.16 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.86 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.20 |
3.49 |

2-3 goals |
2.09 |
5.04 |
3.09 |

4+ goals |
2.73 |
3.12 |
3.20 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.28 |
4.15 |
3.13 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.20 |
3.49 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.05 |
2.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.58 |
2.81 |
3.89 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.73 |
3.12 |
3.20 |

Un 3.5 |
2.22 |
4.19 |
3.22 |

Goal-Goal |
2.86 |
2.81 |
3.39 |

No Goal |
1.96 |
6.09 |
3.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
4.89 |
2.74 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.09 |
3.15 |

####
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###
Valladolid vs Sevilla at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Valladolid** and **Sevilla** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Valladolid |
4.65 |
2.53 |
18.0 |

Draw |
3.39 |
3.73 |
-2.7 |

Sevilla |
1.88 |
2.98 |
-19.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
1.88 |
9.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
2.14 |
-13.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Valladolid, Over 2.5 (18 %, 9.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Valladolid** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Valladolid** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance** at home**.

Valladolid,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 9 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Osasuna |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Getafe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Celta |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Real Madrid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Eibar |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Feb |
Alaves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Levante |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Sevilla** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sevilla** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance** as a guest**.

Sevilla,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Mar |
Elche |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Betis |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Elche |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Osasuna |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Getafe |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Eibar |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Valladolid** is **-0.111** and for the **Sevilla** is **0.44.**

The home dynamic for the **Valladolid** is **-0.489** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sevilla** is **0.308.**

The offensive ability for the **Valladolid** is **-0.157** and for the **Sevilla** is **0.631.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Valladolid** is **-0.607** and for the **Sevilla** is **0.565.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Valladolid** and the red line for guest team, **Sevilla. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Valladolid |
24% |
31% |
26% |
18% |

Sevilla |
22% |
43% |
22% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Valladolid** to score **0.78 ** goals and **Sevilla** to score **1.47 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and the guest team **Sevilla ** to win by **0.69** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Valladolid** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Sevilla** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
18.87 |
0-1 |
4.44 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.60 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
4.44 |

5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.14 |

Gg |
1.69 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.60 |

NoG |
2.45 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.31 |
4.25 |
2.16 |

2-3 goals |
2.36 |
3.73 |
3.24 |

4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.43 |
3.52 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.36 |
3.62 |
3.34 |

Un 1.5 |
3.31 |
4.25 |
2.16 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
6.57 |
2.96 |

Un 2.5 |
3.74 |
2.51 |
2.99 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.43 |
3.52 |

Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.88 |
2.81 |

Goal-Goal |
2.56 |
2.76 |
4.05 |

No Goal |
2.47 |
7.70 |
2.15 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
5.65 |
3.14 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.67 |
7.70 |
2.14 |

####
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###
Celta vs Real Madrid at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Celta** and **Real Madrid** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Celta |
4.53 |
2.63 |
15.9 |

Draw |
3.92 |
3.75 |
1.2 |

Real Madrid |
1.77 |
2.83 |
-21.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.92 |
-5.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.08 |
1.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Celta, Draw, Under 2.5 (15.9 %, 1.2 %, 1.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Celta** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Celta scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Celta** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Celta scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance** at home**.

Celta,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 53.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Celta scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Celta was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Huesca |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Valencia |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Feb |
Elche |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Granada |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Real Madrid** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Real Madrid** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance** as a guest**.

Real Madrid,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 29 points, 69.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Elche |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Mar |
Sociedad |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Valencia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Getafe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Huesca |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Levante |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Celta** is **0.17** and for the **Real Madrid** is **0.776.**

The home dynamic for the **Celta** is **-0.064** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Real Madrid** is **0.451.**

The offensive ability for the **Celta** is **0.157** and for the **Real Madrid** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Celta** is **-0.607** and for the **Real Madrid** is **0.043.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Celta** and the red line for guest team, **Real Madrid. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Celta |
25% |
33% |
24% |
17% |

Real Madrid |
25% |
37% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Celta** to score **0.92 ** goals and **Real Madrid** to score **1.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.76** goals in the game and the guest team **Real Madrid ** to win by **0.91** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Celta** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Real Madrid** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
4.15 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
3.65 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |

5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.65 |

NoG |
2.26 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.87 |
3.77 |
2.59 |

2-3 goals |
2.51 |
3.98 |
2.86 |

4+ goals |
2.66 |
3.38 |
3.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.56 |
3.74 |
2.92 |

Un 1.5 |
2.87 |
3.77 |
2.59 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
6.43 |
2.55 |

Un 2.5 |
3.31 |
2.58 |
3.22 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.66 |
3.38 |
3.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.62 |
3.91 |
2.76 |

Goal-Goal |
2.91 |
2.75 |
3.41 |

No Goal |
2.34 |
6.91 |
2.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
5.40 |
2.66 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
6.91 |
2.40 |

####
Go to Top

###
Ath Bilbao vs Eibar at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ath Bilbao** and **Eibar** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ath Bilbao |
1.84 |
2.00 |
-4.3 |

Draw |
3.59 |
3.97 |
-2.7 |

Eibar |
4.84 |
4.03 |
4.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.31 |
1.96 |
7.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
2.04 |
-11.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Eibar, Over 2.5 (4.2 %, 7.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ath Bilbao** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ath Bilbao** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance** at home**.

Ath Bilbao,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Celta |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Mar |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Granada |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Feb |
Levante |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Feb |
Cadiz |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

07 Feb |
Valencia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Eibar** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Eibar** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance** as a guest**.

Eibar,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Eibar was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Cadiz |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Elche |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Feb |
Osasuna |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Celta |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Ath Bilbao** is **0.126** and for the **Eibar** is **-0.656.**

The home dynamic for the **Ath Bilbao** is **0.032** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Eibar** is **0.055.**

The offensive ability for the **Ath Bilbao** is **0.539** and for the **Eibar** is **0.202.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Ath Bilbao** is **-0.333** and for the **Eibar** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ath Bilbao** and the red line for guest team, **Eibar. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ath Bilbao |
21% |
28% |
28% |
22% |

Eibar |
35% |
36% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ath Bilbao** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Eibar** to score **0.75 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and the home team **Ath Bilbao ** to win by **0.73** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ath Bilbao** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Eibar** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and the home team **Ath Bilbao ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
4.00 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.91 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |