2021 03 19 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Betis vs Levante at 19 March 2021
Valladolid vs Sevilla at 20 March 2021
Celta vs Real Madrid at 20 March 2021
Ath Bilbao vs Eibar at 20 March 2021
Huesca vs Osasuna at 20 March 2021
Valencia vs Granada at 21 March 2021
Villarreal vs Cadiz at 21 March 2021
Sociedad vs Barcelona at 21 March 2021
Ath Madrid vs Alaves at 21 March 2021
Getafe vs Elche at 21 March 2021


Betis vs Levante at 19 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Betis and Levante for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 19 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Betis

1.83

2.33

-11.7

Draw

3.71

3.85

-1.0

Levante

4.43

3.22

8.5

Over 2.5

1.80

1.99

-5.3

Under 2.5

2.07

2.01

1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Levante, Under 2.5 (8.5 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Betis in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Betis in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance at home.
Betis, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Betis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Sevilla

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Mar

Alaves

H

3

2

W

O

G

28 Feb

Cadiz

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Feb

Getafe

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Villarreal

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Barcelona

H

2

3

L

O

G

01 Feb

Osasuna

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Sociedad

A

2

2

D

O

G


Levante in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance as a guest.
Levante, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Mar

Valencia

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Sociedad

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Feb

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Ath Madrid

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Ath Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Osasuna

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Granada

H

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Real Madrid

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Betis is 0.333 and for the Levante is 0.12.
The home dynamic for the Betis is 0.117 and the dynamic as a guest for the Levante is -0.308.
The offensive ability for the Betis is 0.539 and for the Levante is 0.253.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Betis is -0.333 and for the Levante is -0.157.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Betis and the red line for guest team, Levante.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Betis

24%

31%

26%

18%

Levante

34%

31%

22%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Betis to score 1.75 goals and Levante to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Betis to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Betis to score 1.38 goals and Levante to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.82

1

5.56

2-3

2.09

2

4.24

4+

3.86

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.82

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

3.86

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.20

3.49

2-3 goals

2.09

5.04

3.09

4+ goals

2.73

3.12

3.20

Ov 1.5

2.28

4.15

3.13

Un 1.5

2.50

3.20

3.49

Ov 2.5

2.13

6.05

2.74

Un 2.5

2.58

2.81

3.89

Ov 3.5

2.73

3.12

3.20

Un 3.5

2.22

4.19

3.22

Goal-Goal

2.86

2.81

3.39

No Goal

1.96

6.09

3.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.32

4.89

2.74

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.09

3.15


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Valladolid vs Sevilla at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valladolid and Sevilla for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valladolid

4.65

2.53

18.0

Draw

3.39

3.73

-2.7

Sevilla

1.88

2.98

-19.6

Over 2.5

2.27

1.88

9.1

Under 2.5

1.67

2.14

-13.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valladolid, Over 2.5 (18 %, 9.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valladolid in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance at home.
Valladolid, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 9 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Osasuna

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Getafe

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Celta

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Real Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Eibar

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Feb

Alaves

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Jan

Huesca

H

1

3

L

O

G

22 Jan

Levante

A

2

2

D

O

G


Sevilla in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance as a guest.
Sevilla, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Mar

Elche

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Mar

Betis

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Elche

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Barcelona

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Feb

Osasuna

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Huesca

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Getafe

H

3

0

W

O

N

30 Jan

Eibar

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Valladolid is -0.111 and for the Sevilla is 0.44.
The home dynamic for the Valladolid is -0.489 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sevilla is 0.308.
The offensive ability for the Valladolid is -0.157 and for the Sevilla is 0.631.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Valladolid is -0.607 and for the Sevilla is 0.565.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valladolid and the red line for guest team, Sevilla.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valladolid

24%

31%

26%

18%

Sevilla

22%

43%

22%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 0.78 goals and Sevilla to score 1.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the guest team Sevilla to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.39 goals and Sevilla to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.87

0-1

4.44

1

5.81

2-3

2.02

2

4.13

4+

3.60

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.62

Un 1.5

4.44

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.14

Gg

1.69

Ov 3.5

3.60

NoG

2.45

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.31

4.25

2.16

2-3 goals

2.36

3.73

3.24

4+ goals

2.36

3.43

3.52

Ov 1.5

2.36

3.62

3.34

Un 1.5

3.31

4.25

2.16

Ov 2.5

1.96

6.57

2.96

Un 2.5

3.74

2.51

2.99

Ov 3.5

2.36

3.43

3.52

Un 3.5

2.59

3.88

2.81

Goal-Goal

2.56

2.76

4.05

No Goal

2.47

7.70

2.15

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

5.65

3.14

NG+Un 2.5

2.67

7.70

2.14


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Celta vs Real Madrid at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Celta and Real Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Celta

4.53

2.63

15.9

Draw

3.92

3.75

1.2

Real Madrid

1.77

2.83

-21.2

Over 2.5

1.74

1.92

-5.4

Under 2.5

2.14

2.08

1.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Celta, Draw, Under 2.5 (15.9 %, 1.2 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Celta in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Celta in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance at home.
Celta, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 53.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Celta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Ath Bilbao

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Mar

Huesca

A

4

3

W

O

G

28 Feb

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Valencia

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Feb

Elche

H

3

1

W

O

G

08 Feb

Ath Madrid

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Granada

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G


Real Madrid in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Real Madrid, as a guest, had 8 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 29 points, 69.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Elche

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Mar

Sociedad

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Valladolid

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Valencia

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Getafe

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Huesca

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Levante

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Celta is 0.17 and for the Real Madrid is 0.776.
The home dynamic for the Celta is -0.064 and the dynamic as a guest for the Real Madrid is 0.451.
The offensive ability for the Celta is 0.157 and for the Real Madrid is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Celta is -0.607 and for the Real Madrid is 0.043.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Celta and the red line for guest team, Real Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Celta

25%

33%

24%

17%

Real Madrid

25%

37%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Celta to score 0.92 goals and Real Madrid to score 1.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the guest team Real Madrid to win by 0.91 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Celta to score 1.33 goals and Real Madrid to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

4.15

1

5.65

2-3

2.06

2

4.18

4+

3.65

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.88

Un 1.5

4.15

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.65

NoG

2.26

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.87

3.77

2.59

2-3 goals

2.51

3.98

2.86

4+ goals

2.66

3.38

3.04

Ov 1.5

2.56

3.74

2.92

Un 1.5

2.87

3.77

2.59

Ov 2.5

2.21

6.43

2.55

Un 2.5

3.31

2.58

3.22

Ov 3.5

2.66

3.38

3.04

Un 3.5

2.62

3.91

2.76

Goal-Goal

2.91

2.75

3.41

No Goal

2.34

6.91

2.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.28

5.40

2.66

NG+Un 2.5

2.47

6.91

2.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Ath Bilbao vs Eibar at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Bilbao and Eibar for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Bilbao

1.84

2.00

-4.3

Draw

3.59

3.97

-2.7

Eibar

4.84

4.03

4.2

Over 2.5

2.31

1.96

7.7

Under 2.5

1.66

2.04

-11.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Eibar, Over 2.5 (4.2 %, 7.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance at home.
Ath Bilbao, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Celta

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Mar

Granada

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Feb

Levante

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Villarreal

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

Cadiz

A

4

0

W

O

N

07 Feb

Valencia

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Barcelona

A

1

2

L

O

G


Eibar in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eibar in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance as a guest.
Eibar, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eibar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Villarreal

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Cadiz

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Huesca

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Elche

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Osasuna

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Sevilla

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Jan

Celta

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Ath Bilbao is 0.126 and for the Eibar is -0.656.
The home dynamic for the Ath Bilbao is 0.032 and the dynamic as a guest for the Eibar is 0.055.
The offensive ability for the Ath Bilbao is 0.539 and for the Eibar is 0.202.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ath Bilbao is -0.333 and for the Eibar is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ath Bilbao and the red line for guest team, Eibar.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Bilbao

21%

28%

28%

22%

Eibar

35%

36%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.48 goals and Eibar to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.52 goals and Eibar to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

4.00

1

5.68

2-3

2.03

2

4.17

4+

3.91

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.00

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

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