2021 03 19 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Plymouth vs Bristol Rvs at 20 March 2021
Sunderland vs Lincoln at 20 March 2021
Shrewsbury vs Hull at 20 March 2021
Portsmouth vs Ipswich at 20 March 2021
Oxford vs Blackpool at 20 March 2021
Gillingham vs Doncaster at 20 March 2021
Accrington vs Wigan at 20 March 2021
Fleetwood Town vs Swindon at 20 March 2021
Rochdale vs Peterboro at 20 March 2021
Burton vs Milton Keynes Dons at 20 March 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton at 20 March 2021
Northampton vs Crewe at 20 March 2021


Plymouth vs Bristol Rvs at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Plymouth and Bristol Rvs for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Plymouth

2.52

2.11

7.7

Draw

3.35

3.77

-3.3

Bristol Rvs

2.75

3.82

-10.2

Over 2.5

1.80

2.11

-8.2

Under 2.5

2.02

1.90

3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Plymouth, Under 2.5 (7.7 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Plymouth in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance at home.
Plymouth, at home, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 57.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Ipswich

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Wigan

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Northampton

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Lincoln

H

4

3

W

O

G

23 Feb

Peterboro

H

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Rochdale

A

0

0

D

U

N


Bristol Rvs in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol Rvs in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance as a guest.
Bristol Rvs, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Mar

Charlton

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Accrington

H

4

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Burton

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Shrewsbury

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Wigan

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Gillingham

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Plymouth is -0.726 and for the Bristol Rvs is -0.136.
The home dynamic for the Plymouth is 0.085 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bristol Rvs is -0.004.
The offensive ability for the Plymouth is -0.191 and for the Bristol Rvs is -0.142.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Plymouth is -1 and for the Bristol Rvs is -0.565.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Plymouth and the red line for guest team, Bristol Rvs.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Plymouth

21%

35%

26%

18%

Bristol Rvs

35%

35%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Plymouth to score 1.37 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Plymouth to score 1.42 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Plymouth to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.69

1

5.08

2-3

2.00

2

3.92

4+

4.39

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.69

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.39

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.20

3.66

3.66

2-3 goals

2.00

4.09

3.93

4+ goals

2.30

3.35

3.74

Ov 1.5

2.08

3.83

3.87

Un 1.5

2.20

3.66

3.66

Ov 2.5

1.84

6.94

3.19

Un 2.5

2.44

2.68

4.61

Ov 3.5

2.30

3.35

3.74

Un 3.5

2.06

3.93

3.83

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.68

4.01

No Goal

1.75

6.61

3.62

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.02

5.69

3.05

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.61

3.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sunderland vs Lincoln at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Lincoln for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

1.83

2.38

-12.6

Draw

3.62

3.76

-1.0

Lincoln

4.21

3.19

7.6

Over 2.5

2.01

2.01

0.0

Under 2.5

1.81

1.99

-5.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lincoln (7.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Mar

Accrington

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Portsmouth

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Rochdale

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Swindon

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Crewe

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Fleetwood Town

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Burton

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Doncaster

H

4

1

W

O

G


Lincoln in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance as a guest.
Lincoln, as a guest, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 70.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Mar

Gillingham

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Rochdale

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Mar

Ipswich

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Crewe

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Fleetwood Town

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Plymouth

A

3

4

L

O

G

23 Feb

Swindon

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Feb

Wigan

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Sunderland is 0.852 and for the Lincoln is -0.464.
The home dynamic for the Sunderland is -0.277 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lincoln is 0.603.
The offensive ability for the Sunderland is 1 and for the Lincoln is 0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sunderland is 0.704 and for the Lincoln is -0.626.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Lincoln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

25%

31%

26%

18%

Lincoln

29%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.57 goals and Lincoln to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.37 goals and Lincoln to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.89

1

5.46

2-3

2.04

2

4.08

4+

3.98

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.89

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.79

3.47

2.82

2-3 goals

2.20

4.34

3.18

4+ goals

2.39

3.18

3.75

Ov 1.5

2.26

3.86

3.35

Un 1.5

2.79

3.47

2.82

Ov 2.5

1.97

6.28

3.01

Un 2.5

2.99

2.68

3.41

Ov 3.5

2.39

3.18

3.75

Un 3.5

2.37

3.99

3.05

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.74

3.88

No Goal

2.13

6.36

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

5.24

3.04

NG+Un 2.5

2.32

6.36

2.65


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Shrewsbury vs Hull at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Hull for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Shrewsbury

4.23

2.90

10.8

Draw

3.43

3.73

-2.3

Hull

1.89

2.58

-14.2

Over 2.5

2.18

2.02

3.6

Under 2.5

1.69

1.98

-8.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (10.8 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Charlton

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Rochdale

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Fleetwood Town

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Bristol Rvs

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

H

4

2

W

O

G

20 Feb

Accrington

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Feb

Sunderland

H

2

1

W

O

G


Hull in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hull in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hull scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hull’s performance as a guest.
Hull, as a guest, had 10 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hull scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Oxford

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Peterboro

A

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Bristol Rvs

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Rochdale

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

AFC Wimbledon

A

3

0

W

O

N

23 Feb

Ipswich

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Doncaster

A

3

3

D

O

G

17 Feb

Wigan

A

5

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Shrewsbury is 0 and for the Hull is 0.864.
The home dynamic for the Shrewsbury is -0.213 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hull is 0.274.
The offensive ability for the Shrewsbury is 0.591 and for the Hull is 0.682.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Shrewsbury is -0.63 and for the Hull is 0.591.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Hull.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Shrewsbury

30%

31%

23%

15%

Hull

23%

38%

26%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 0.83 goals and Hull to score 1.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the guest team Hull to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.24 goals and Hull to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.94

1

5.41

2-3

2.02

2

3.98

4+

3.98

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.94

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.53

3.68

2.25

2-3 goals

2.83

4.20

2.44

4+ goals

2.54

3.10

3.54

Ov 1.5

2.73

3.75

2.73

Un 1.5

3.53

3.68

2.25

Ov 2.5

2.24

6.12

2.56

Un 2.5

4.04

2.70

2.62

Ov 3.5

2.54

3.10

3.54

Un 3.5

3.04

4.01

2.37

Goal-Goal

2.90

2.71

3.50

No Goal

2.89

6.70

1.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

5.20

2.73

NG+Un 2.5

3.10

6.70

2.01


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Portsmouth vs Ipswich at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Portsmouth and Ipswich for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Portsmouth

2.12

2.33

-4.3

Draw

3.31

3.83

-4.1

Ipswich

3.50

3.23

2.4

Over 2.5

2.24

1.96

6.4

Under 2.5

1.66

2.04

-11.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ipswich, Over 2.5 (2.4 %, 6.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Portsmouth in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance at home.
Portsmouth, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 42.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Mar

Peterboro

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Sunderland

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Northampton

A

1

4

L

O

G

02 Mar

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Gillingham

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Oxford

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Blackpool

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Feb

Bristol Rvs

A

1

3

L

O

G


Ipswich in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance as a guest.
Ipswich, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Mar

Fleetwood Town

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Plymouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Lincoln

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Gillingham

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Mar

Accrington

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Doncaster

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Hull

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Oxford

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Portsmouth is -0.578 and for the Ipswich is 0.2.
The home dynamic for the Portsmouth is -0.096 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ipswich is 0.19.
The offensive ability for the Portsmouth is 0.104 and for the Ipswich is 0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Portsmouth is -0.726 and for the Ipswich is -0.565.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Portsmouth and the red line for guest team, Ipswich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Portsmouth

25%

29%

27%

19%

Ipswich

29%

36%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.32 goals and Ipswich to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.4 goals and Ipswich to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

4.00

1

5.68

2-3

2.06

2

4.18

4+

3.82

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.00

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.82

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals