# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Stevenage vs Carlisle at 20 March 2021**** Tranmere vs Exeter at 20 March 2021**** Scunthorpe vs Southend at 20 March 2021**** Newport County vs Leyton Orient at 20 March 2021**** Mansfield vs Grimsby at 20 March 2021**** Harrogate vs Morecambe at 20 March 2021**** Cheltenham vs Salford at 20 March 2021**** Cambridge vs Forest Green at 20 March 2021**** Bradford vs Oldham at 20 March 2021**** Bolton vs Walsall at 20 March 2021**** Barrow vs Crawley Town at 20 March 2021**** Colchester vs Port Vale at 20 March 2021**

###
Stevenage vs Carlisle at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stevenage** and **Carlisle** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stevenage |
3.34 |
2.77 |
6.2 |

Draw |
3.24 |
3.69 |
-3.8 |

Carlisle |
2.22 |
2.72 |
-8.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.30 |
2.15 |
3.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.87 |
-8.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stevenage, Over 2.5 (6.2 %, 3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** at home**.

Stevenage,** at home**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Forest Green |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** as a guest**.

Carlisle,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Mar |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Tranmere |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Salford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Stevenage** is **0.333** and for the **Carlisle** is **-0.2.**

The home dynamic for the **Stevenage** is **-0.149** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Carlisle** is **-0.046.**

The offensive ability for the **Stevenage** is **-0.565** and for the **Carlisle** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Stevenage** is **1** and for the **Carlisle** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stevenage** and the red line for guest team, **Carlisle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stevenage |
31% |
30% |
27% |
12% |

Carlisle |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Carlisle** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and the guest team **Carlisle ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Carlisle** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.56 |

1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.42 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.42 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.39 |
3.19 |
2.55 |

2-3 goals |
2.40 |
4.69 |
2.70 |

4+ goals |
3.18 |
2.86 |
2.97 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.90 |
2.78 |

Un 1.5 |
3.39 |
3.19 |
2.55 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
5.89 |
2.50 |

Un 2.5 |
3.36 |
2.77 |
2.93 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.18 |
2.86 |
2.97 |

Un 3.5 |
2.68 |
4.01 |
2.65 |

Goal-Goal |
2.98 |
2.68 |
3.43 |

No Goal |
2.62 |
5.74 |
2.25 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |
4.92 |
2.70 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
5.74 |
2.36 |

####
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###
Tranmere vs Exeter at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tranmere** and **Exeter** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tranmere |
2.92 |
2.51 |
5.6 |

Draw |
3.12 |
3.61 |
-4.4 |

Exeter |
2.50 |
3.10 |
-7.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.20 |
-3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.83 |
-1.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Tranmere (5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tranmere** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tranmere** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance** at home**.

Tranmere,** at home**, had 9 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 54.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Southend |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Leyton Orient |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Exeter** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Exeter** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance** as a guest**.

Exeter,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 8 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Walsall |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Bradford |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Tranmere** is **0.459** and for the **Exeter** is **0.24.**

The home dynamic for the **Tranmere** is **-0.202** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Exeter** is **0.156.**

The offensive ability for the **Tranmere** is **0.13** and for the **Exeter** is **-0.176.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Tranmere** is **0.089** and for the **Exeter** is **0.217.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tranmere** and the red line for guest team, **Exeter. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tranmere |
26% |
36% |
22% |
15% |

Exeter |
31% |
36% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.13** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.57 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.55 |
3.56 |
3.06 |

2-3 goals |
2.47 |
3.76 |
3.04 |

4+ goals |
2.52 |
3.42 |
3.22 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.49 |
3.65 |
3.09 |

Un 1.5 |
2.55 |
3.56 |
3.06 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
7.11 |
2.60 |

Un 2.5 |
2.97 |
2.57 |
3.65 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.42 |
3.22 |

Un 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.68 |
3.05 |

Goal-Goal |
3.02 |
2.61 |
3.50 |

No Goal |
2.13 |
6.06 |
2.74 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.89 |
2.60 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
6.06 |
2.77 |

####
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###
Scunthorpe vs Southend at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Scunthorpe** and **Southend** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Scunthorpe |
2.21 |
2.51 |
-5.4 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.69 |
-4.2 |

Southend |
3.41 |
3.03 |
3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.12 |
5.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.89 |
-10.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southend, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 5.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** at home**.

Scunthorpe,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 41.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Mar |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Mar |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Salford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Harrogate |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Southend** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southend** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance** as a guest**.

Southend,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 29.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Oldham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Salford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Forest Green |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.163** and for the **Southend** is **-0.144.**

The home dynamic for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.426** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Southend** is **-0.274.**

The offensive ability for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.278** and for the **Southend** is **-1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.704** and for the **Southend** is **0.217.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Scunthorpe** and the red line for guest team, **Southend. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Scunthorpe |
27% |
31% |
27% |
14% |

Southend |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Southend** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.15** goals in the game and the home team **Scunthorpe ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Southend** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.64 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.64 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.89 |
3.31 |
2.84 |

2-3 goals |
2.23 |
4.41 |
3.09 |

4+ goals |
2.80 |
2.99 |
3.24 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.38 |
3.83 |
3.13 |

Un 1.5 |
2.89 |
3.31 |
2.84 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.12 |
2.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.98 |
2.71 |
3.38 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.80 |
2.99 |
3.24 |

Un 3.5 |
2.43 |
3.94 |
2.99 |

Goal-Goal |
2.84 |
2.68 |
3.64 |

No Goal |
2.23 |
5.94 |
2.61 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
5.12 |
2.83 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
5.94 |
2.67 |

####
Go to Top

###
Newport County vs Leyton Orient at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newport County** and **Leyton Orient** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newport County |
2.01 |
2.42 |
-8.4 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.65 |
-1.9 |

Leyton Orient |
3.82 |
3.19 |
5.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.18 |
2.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
1.85 |
-7.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leyton Orient, Over 2.5 (5.2 %, 2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newport County** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newport County** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance** at home**.

Newport County,** at home**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 64.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Mar |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Leyton Orient** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leyton Orient** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance** as a guest**.

Leyton Orient,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Mar |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Tranmere |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Newport County** is **0.17** and for the **Leyton Orient** is **-0.24.**

The home dynamic for the **Newport County** is **0.309** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leyton Orient** is **-0.046.**

The offensive ability for the **Newport County** is **0.33** and for the **Leyton Orient** is **-0.142.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Newport County** is **-0.407** and for the **Leyton Orient** is **-0.191.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newport County** and the red line for guest team, **Leyton Orient. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newport County |
26% |
33% |
25% |
15% |

Leyton Orient |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **0.86 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and the home team **Newport County ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.52 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |