Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Stevenage vs Carlisle at 20 March 2021
Tranmere vs Exeter at 20 March 2021
Scunthorpe vs Southend at 20 March 2021
Newport County vs Leyton Orient at 20 March 2021
Mansfield vs Grimsby at 20 March 2021
Harrogate vs Morecambe at 20 March 2021
Cheltenham vs Salford at 20 March 2021
Cambridge vs Forest Green at 20 March 2021
Bradford vs Oldham at 20 March 2021
Bolton vs Walsall at 20 March 2021
Barrow vs Crawley Town at 20 March 2021
Colchester vs Port Vale at 20 March 2021

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Stevenage vs Carlisle at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stevenage and Carlisle for League Two (England), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stevenage, Over 2.5 (6.2 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stevenage in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance at home.
Stevenage, at home, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

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Carlisle in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance as a guest.
Carlisle, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

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The form score for the Stevenage is 0.333 and for the Carlisle is -0.2.
The home dynamic for the Stevenage is -0.149 and the dynamic as a guest for the Carlisle is -0.046.
The offensive ability for the Stevenage is -0.565 and for the Carlisle is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stevenage is 1 and for the Carlisle is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stevenage and the red line for guest team, Carlisle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 0.95 goals and Carlisle to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the guest team Carlisle to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.2 goals and Carlisle to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top

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Tranmere vs Exeter at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tranmere and Exeter for League Two (England), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tranmere (5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tranmere in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance at home.
Tranmere, at home, had 9 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 54.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

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Exeter in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Exeter in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance as a guest.
Exeter, as a guest, had 5 wins, 8 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

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The form score for the Tranmere is 0.459 and for the Exeter is 0.24.
The home dynamic for the Tranmere is -0.202 and the dynamic as a guest for the Exeter is 0.156.
The offensive ability for the Tranmere is 0.13 and for the Exeter is -0.176.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Tranmere is 0.089 and for the Exeter is 0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tranmere and the red line for guest team, Exeter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.13 goals and Exeter to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.27 goals and Exeter to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top

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Scunthorpe vs Southend at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Scunthorpe and Southend for League Two (England), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Southend, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 5.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Scunthorpe in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance at home.
Scunthorpe, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 41.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

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Southend in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance as a guest.
Southend, as a guest, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 29.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :

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The form score for the Scunthorpe is -0.163 and for the Southend is -0.144.
The home dynamic for the Scunthorpe is -0.426 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southend is -0.274.
The offensive ability for the Scunthorpe is 0.278 and for the Southend is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Scunthorpe is -0.704 and for the Southend is 0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Scunthorpe and the red line for guest team, Southend.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.24 goals and Southend to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the home team Scunthorpe to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.28 goals and Southend to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top

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Newport County vs Leyton Orient at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newport County and Leyton Orient for League Two (England), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leyton Orient, Over 2.5 (5.2 %, 2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newport County in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance at home.
Newport County, at home, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 64.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

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Leyton Orient in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance as a guest.
Leyton Orient, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

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The form score for the Newport County is 0.17 and for the Leyton Orient is -0.24.
The home dynamic for the Newport County is 0.309 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leyton Orient is -0.046.
The offensive ability for the Newport County is 0.33 and for the Leyton Orient is -0.142.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Newport County is -0.407 and for the Leyton Orient is -0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newport County and the red line for guest team, Leyton Orient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.36 goals and Leyton Orient to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and the home team Newport County to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.29 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.