2021 03 19 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

St Etienne vs Monaco at 19 March 2021
Metz vs Rennes at 20 March 2021
Nice vs Marseille at 20 March 2021
Brest vs Angers at 21 March 2021
Dijon vs Reims at 21 March 2021
Lille vs Nimes at 21 March 2021
Lyon vs Paris SG at 21 March 2021
Montpellier vs Bordeaux at 21 March 2021
Nantes vs Lorient at 21 March 2021
Strasbourg vs Lens at 21 March 2021


St Etienne vs Monaco at 19 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between St Etienne and Monaco for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 19 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

St Etienne

4.35

2.38

19.0

Draw

3.66

3.69

-0.2

Monaco

1.84

3.26

-23.7

Over 2.5

2.00

2.42

-8.7

Under 2.5

1.86

1.71

4.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at St Etienne, Under 2.5 (19 %, 4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

St Etienne in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, St Etienne in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance at home.
St Etienne, at home, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Angers

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Lens

H

2

3

L

O

G

28 Feb

Lorient

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Reims

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Rennes

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Metz

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

Nantes

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Nice

A

1

0

W

U

N


Monaco in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monaco in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance as a guest.
Monaco, as a guest, had 8 wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Lille

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Mar

Strasbourg

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Feb

Brest

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Paris SG

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Lorient

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Feb

Nimes

A

4

3

W

O

G

03 Feb

Nice

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Nantes

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the St Etienne is 0.126 and for the Monaco is 0.384.
The home dynamic for the St Etienne is -0.521 and the dynamic as a guest for the Monaco is 0.165.
The offensive ability for the St Etienne is 1 and for the Monaco is 0.116.
Finally, the defensive ability for the St Etienne is -0.037 and for the Monaco is 0.243.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, St Etienne and the red line for guest team, Monaco.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

St Etienne

29%

30%

31%

10%

Monaco

37%

36%

13%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) St Etienne to score 0.86 goals and Monaco to score 1.6 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the guest team Monaco to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.21 goals and Monaco to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.43

0-1

3.10

1

4.61

2-3

2.04

2

3.82

4+

5.35

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.40

Un 1.5

3.10

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.41

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.22

Ov 3.5

5.35

NoG

1.82

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.88

3.05

3.08

2-3 goals

1.88

4.41

4.15

4+ goals

3.82

3.46

2.23

Ov 1.5

2.18

4.10

3.35

Un 1.5

2.88

3.05

3.08

Ov 2.5

2.11

7.69

2.53

Un 2.5

2.60

2.70

4.09

Ov 3.5

3.82

3.46

2.23

Un 3.5

2.18

3.75

3.65

Goal-Goal

2.80

2.73

3.63

No Goal

2.11

5.19

3.01

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

6.28

2.73

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

5.19

3.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Metz vs Rennes at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Metz and Rennes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Metz

3.37

2.33

13.2

Draw

3.08

3.55

-4.3

Rennes

2.36

3.46

-13.5

Over 2.5

2.48

2.42

1.0

Under 2.5

1.57

1.71

-5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Metz, Over 2.5 (13.2 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Metz in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Metz in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Metz’s performance at home.
Metz, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Metz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Lens

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

Angers

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Bordeaux

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Nice

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Strasbourg

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

St Etienne

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Feb

Montpellier

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Brest

A

4

2

W

O

G


Rennes in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance as a guest.
Rennes, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Strasbourg

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Mar

Marseille

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Mar

Lyon

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Feb

Nice

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Montpellier

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

St Etienne

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Lens

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Feb

Lorient

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Metz is -0.133 and for the Rennes is -0.576.
The home dynamic for the Metz is -0.128 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rennes is 0.485.
The offensive ability for the Metz is 0.243 and for the Rennes is -0.142.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Metz is -1 and for the Rennes is -0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Metz and the red line for guest team, Rennes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Metz

26%

37%

25%

13%

Rennes

36%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Metz to score 0.93 goals and Rennes to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Metz to score 1.25 goals and Rennes to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.13

1

4.42

2-3

2.03

2

3.75

4+

5.35

3

4.42

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.87

Un 1.5

3.13

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.42

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

5.35

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.40

3.43

3.43

2-3 goals

2.19

3.71

3.65

4+ goals

2.67

3.28

3.12

Ov 1.5

2.31

3.58

3.49

Un 1.5

2.40

3.43

3.43

Ov 2.5

2.00

7.25

2.75

Un 2.5

2.64

2.59

4.25

Ov 3.5

2.67

3.28

3.12

Un 3.5

2.27

3.59

3.56

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.49

3.79

No Goal

1.95

5.65

3.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.14

5.98

2.73

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.65

3.28


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Nice vs Marseille at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nice and Marseille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nice

2.99

2.54

5.9

Draw

3.29

3.64

-2.9

Marseille

2.47

3.02

-7.4

Over 2.5

2.14

2.40

-5.1

Under 2.5

1.74

1.72

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nice, Under 2.5 (5.9 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nice in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance at home.
Nice, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Lorient

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Mar

Nimes

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Feb

Rennes

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Metz

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Feb

Marseille

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Paris SG

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Angers

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Feb

Monaco

A

1

2

L

O

G


Marseille in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance as a guest.
Marseille, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Brest

H

3

1

W

O

G

10 Mar

Rennes

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Lille

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Feb

Nice

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Feb

Bordeaux

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Paris SG

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Nice is -0.089 and for the Marseille is 0.456.
The home dynamic for the Nice is -0.787 and the dynamic as a guest for the Marseille is 0.173.
The offensive ability for the Nice is 1 and for the Marseille is 0.597.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nice is -1 and for the Marseille is -0.565.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nice and the red line for guest team, Marseille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nice

30%

33%

28%

9%

Marseille

35%

35%

15%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nice to score 1.09 goals and Marseille to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nice to score 1.17 goals and Marseille to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.52

0-1

3.08

1

4.55

2-3

2.07

2

3.86

4+

5.21

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.08

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.40

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.20

Ov 3.5

5.21

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.83

3.10

3.10

2-3 goals

2.08

4.20

3.55

4+ goals

4.09

3.49

2.13

Ov 1.5

2.42

3.97

2.99

Un 1.5

2.83

3.10

3.10

Ov 2.5

2.32

7.56

2.29

Un 2.5

2.72

2.65

3.92

Ov 3.5

4.09

3.49

2.13

Un 3.5

2.33

3.67

3.35

Goal-Goal

3.11

2.67

3.29

No Goal

2.20

5.20

2.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.32

6.16

2.46

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

5.20

3.15


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Brest vs Angers at 21 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brest and Angers for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 21 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brest

2.56

1.89

13.8

Draw

3.16

3.94

-6.3

Angers

2.96

4.61

-12.1

Over 2.5

2.08

2.52

-8.4

Under 2.5

1.78

1.66

4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Brest, Under 2.5 (13.8 %, 4.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brest in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brest in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance at home.
Brest, at home, had 8 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 59.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Marseille

A

1

3

L

O

G

03 Mar

Dijon

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Feb

Monaco

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Feb

Lyon

H

2

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Lille

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Bordeaux

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Strasbourg

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Metz

H

2

4

L

O

G


Angers in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Angers in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Angers’s performance as a guest.
Angers, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Angers was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

St Etienne

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Mar

Metz

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Lens

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Strasbourg

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Feb

Nantes

H

1

3

L

O

G

07 Feb

Nice

A

0

3

L

O

N

03 Feb

Reims

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Jan

Nimes

H

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Brest is -0.207 and for the Angers is -0.24.
The home dynamic for the Brest is 0.138 and the dynamic as a guest for the Angers is 0.266.
The offensive ability for the Brest is 0.243 and for the Angers is -0.142.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brest is -0.704 and for the Angers is -0.191.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brest and the red line for guest team, Angers.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brest

25%

25%

36%

14%

Angers

49%

29%

12%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brest to score 1.25 goals and Angers to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brest to score 1.38 goals and Angers to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Brest to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.06

0-1

3.10

1

5.03

2-3

1.97

2

3.56

4+

5.88

3

4.41

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

9.35

Un 1.5

3.10

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.52

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

2.62

Ov 3.5

5.88

NoG

1.61

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.58

2.60

4.36