# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Fulham vs Leeds at 19 March 2021**** Brighton vs Newcastle at 20 March 2021**** Aston Villa vs Tottenham at 21 March 2021**** West Ham vs Arsenal at 21 March 2021**

###
Fulham vs Leeds at 19 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fulham** and **Leeds** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **19 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fulham |
2.44 |
3.12 |
-8.9 |

Draw |
3.39 |
3.86 |
-3.6 |

Leeds |
3.00 |
2.38 |
8.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
1.96 |
2.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.04 |
-5.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leeds, Over 2.5 (8.7 %, 2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fulham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fulham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance** at home**.

Fulham,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Man City |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Mar |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Mar |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Everton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Leeds** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leeds** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance** as a guest**.

Leeds,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
West Ham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Feb |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Arsenal |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Everton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Fulham** is **-0.037** and for the **Leeds** is **-0.44.**

The home dynamic for the **Fulham** is **-0.766** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leeds** is **0.105.**

The offensive ability for the **Fulham** is **-0.243** and for the **Leeds** is **-0.631.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Fulham** is **-0.015** and for the **Leeds** is **-0.157.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fulham** and the red line for guest team, **Leeds. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fulham |
32% |
28% |
29% |
11% |

Leeds |
24% |
32% |
23% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fulham** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Leeds** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fulham** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Leeds** to score **1.38 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.95 |

1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.85 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.61 |
3.20 |
2.43 |

2-3 goals |
2.57 |
5.28 |
2.37 |

4+ goals |
4.33 |
2.92 |
2.34 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.00 |
4.12 |
2.36 |

Un 1.5 |
3.61 |
3.20 |
2.43 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.84 |
5.72 |
2.11 |

Un 2.5 |
3.50 |
2.87 |
2.74 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.33 |
2.92 |
2.34 |

Un 3.5 |
2.85 |
4.32 |
2.39 |

Goal-Goal |
3.35 |
2.83 |
2.88 |

No Goal |
2.93 |
6.16 |
2.01 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.75 |
4.72 |
2.36 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
6.16 |
2.22 |

####
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###
Brighton vs Newcastle at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Brighton** and **Newcastle** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Brighton |
1.69 |
1.96 |
-8.2 |

Draw |
3.52 |
4.02 |
-3.5 |

Newcastle |
6.10 |
4.13 |
7.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
1.96 |
7.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
2.04 |
-11.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newcastle, Over 2.5 (7.8 %, 7.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Brighton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brighton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance** at home**.

Brighton,** at home**, had one win, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Southampton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** as a guest**.

Newcastle,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Mar |
Aston Villa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Man United |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Everton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Brighton** is **-0.319** and for the **Newcastle** is **-0.104.**

The home dynamic for the **Brighton** is **-0.66** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Newcastle** is **-0.376.**

The offensive ability for the **Brighton** is **0.243** and for the **Newcastle** is **0.227.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Brighton** is **-0.704** and for the **Newcastle** is **-0.565.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Brighton** and the red line for guest team, **Newcastle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Brighton |
20% |
26% |
34% |
20% |

Newcastle |
35% |
36% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Brighton** to score **1.58 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and the home team **Brighton ** to win by **0.92** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Brighton** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the home team **Brighton ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.18 |

1 |
5.99 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.03 |

3 |
3.85 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
4.18 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.57 |
3.32 |
3.23 |

2-3 goals |
1.65 |
5.39 |
4.83 |

4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.06 |
4.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.83 |
4.32 |
4.52 |

Un 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.32 |
3.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
6.27 |
3.88 |

Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.94 |
4.42 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.06 |
4.00 |

Un 3.5 |
1.86 |
4.50 |
4.17 |

Goal-Goal |
2.26 |
2.91 |
4.66 |

No Goal |
1.72 |
6.75 |
3.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
5.16 |
3.80 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
6.75 |
3.57 |

####
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###
Aston Villa vs Tottenham at 21 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Aston Villa** and **Tottenham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **21 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Aston Villa |
3.03 |
2.47 |
7.5 |

Draw |
3.40 |
3.69 |
-2.3 |

Tottenham |
2.42 |
3.10 |
-9.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.08 |
-5.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.93 |
1.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Aston Villa, Under 2.5 (7.5 %, 1.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Aston Villa** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aston Villa** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance** at home**.

Aston Villa,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Mar |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Wolves |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Tottenham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tottenham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tottenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Tottenham,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tottenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Crystal Palace |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Mar |
Fulham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Burnley |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Feb |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Man City |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Feb |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Feb |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.163** and for the **Tottenham** is **0.12.**

The home dynamic for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.074** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Tottenham** is **0.291.**

The offensive ability for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.157** and for the **Tottenham** is **0.682.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.037** and for the **Tottenham** is **-0.217.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Aston Villa** and the red line for guest team, **Tottenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Aston Villa |
25% |
37% |
19% |
19% |

Tottenham |
31% |
35% |
20% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Tottenham** to score **1.4 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Tottenham** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.58 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.62 |
3.21 |

2-3 goals |
2.55 |
3.67 |
2.98 |

4+ goals |
2.37 |
3.78 |
3.19 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.71 |
3.05 |

Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.62 |
3.21 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
7.40 |
2.59 |

Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
2.51 |
3.78 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.78 |
3.19 |

Un 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.66 |
3.06 |

Goal-Goal |
3.02 |
2.66 |
3.40 |

No Goal |
2.06 |
6.26 |
2.82 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.97 |
2.55 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.26 |
2.84 |

####
Go to Top

###
West Ham vs Arsenal at 21 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **West Ham** and **Arsenal** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **21 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

West Ham |
2.85 |
2.15 |
11.4 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.85 |
-3.0 |

Arsenal |
2.55 |
3.65 |
-11.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.00 |
-1.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.00 |
-2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **West Ham (11.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**West Ham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Ham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance** at home**.

West Ham,** at home**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 64.3% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Mar |
Leeds |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Man City |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Sheffield United |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Feb |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Aston Villa |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Arsenal** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Arsenal** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance** as a guest**.

Arsenal,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Leicester |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Leeds |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **West Ham** is **0.126** and for the **Arsenal** is **0.32.**

The home dynamic for the **West Ham** is **0.181** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Arsenal** is **0.241.**

The offensive ability for the **West Ham** is **0.217** and for the **Arsenal** is **0.313.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **West Ham** is **-0.059** and for the **Arsenal** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **West Ham** and the red line for guest team, **Arsenal. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

West Ham |
22% |
32% |
25% |
21% |

Arsenal |
34% |
36% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **West Ham** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **West Ham** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **West Ham ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.85 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |