Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Fulham vs Leeds at 19 March 2021
Brighton vs Newcastle at 20 March 2021
Aston Villa vs Tottenham at 21 March 2021
West Ham vs Arsenal at 21 March 2021
Fulham vs Leeds at 19 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Fulham and Leeds for Premier League (England), which will take place on 19 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Fulham |
2.44 |
3.12 |
-8.9 |
|
Draw |
3.39 |
3.86 |
-3.6 |
|
Leeds |
3.00 |
2.38 |
8.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
1.96 |
2.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.04 |
-5.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Leeds, Over 2.5 (8.7 %, 2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Fulham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fulham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance at home.
Fulham, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fulham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Mar |
Man City |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
07 Mar |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
04 Mar |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Feb |
Everton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Leeds in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance as a guest.
Leeds, as a guest, had 6 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Mar |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
08 Mar |
West Ham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Feb |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
19 Feb |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Arsenal |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
08 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Feb |
Everton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The form score for the Fulham is -0.037 and for the Leeds is -0.44.
The home dynamic for the Fulham is -0.766 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leeds is 0.105.
The offensive ability for the Fulham is -0.243 and for the Leeds is -0.631.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Fulham is -0.015 and for the Leeds is -0.157.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fulham and the red line for guest team, Leeds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Fulham |
32% |
28% |
29% |
11% |
|
Leeds |
24% |
32% |
23% |
20% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.3 goals and Leeds to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.18 goals and Leeds to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.95 |
|
1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.85 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |
|
5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |
|
NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.61 |
3.20 |
2.43 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.57 |
5.28 |
2.37 |
|
4+ goals |
4.33 |
2.92 |
2.34 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.00 |
4.12 |
2.36 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |
3.20 |
2.43 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.84 |
5.72 |
2.11 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.50 |
2.87 |
2.74 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.33 |
2.92 |
2.34 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.85 |
4.32 |
2.39 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.35 |
2.83 |
2.88 |
|
No Goal |
2.93 |
6.16 |
2.01 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.75 |
4.72 |
2.36 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
6.16 |
2.22 |
Go to Top
Brighton vs Newcastle at 20 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Brighton and Newcastle for Premier League (England), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Brighton |
1.69 |
1.96 |
-8.2 |
|
Draw |
3.52 |
4.02 |
-3.5 |
|
Newcastle |
6.10 |
4.13 |
7.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
1.96 |
7.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
2.04 |
-11.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Newcastle, Over 2.5 (7.8 %, 7.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Brighton in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brighton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance at home.
Brighton, at home, had one win, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brighton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Mar |
Southampton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
22 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Feb |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Newcastle in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance as a guest.
Newcastle, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
12 Mar |
Aston Villa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
07 Mar |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Feb |
Man United |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Feb |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Everton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Brighton is -0.319 and for the Newcastle is -0.104.
The home dynamic for the Brighton is -0.66 and the dynamic as a guest for the Newcastle is -0.376.
The offensive ability for the Brighton is 0.243 and for the Newcastle is 0.227.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brighton is -0.704 and for the Newcastle is -0.565.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brighton and the red line for guest team, Newcastle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Brighton |
20% |
26% |
34% |
20% |
|
Newcastle |
35% |
36% |
18% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.58 goals and Newcastle to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Brighton to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.52 goals and Newcastle to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Brighton to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.18 |
|
1 |
5.99 |
2-3 |
1.95 |
|
2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.03 |
|
3 |
3.85 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
4.18 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.57 |
3.32 |
3.23 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.65 |
5.39 |
4.83 |
|
4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.06 |
4.00 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.83 |
4.32 |
4.52 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.32 |
3.23 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
6.27 |
3.88 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.94 |
4.42 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.06 |
4.00 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.86 |
4.50 |
4.17 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.26 |
2.91 |
4.66 |
|
No Goal |
1.72 |
6.75 |
3.68 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
5.16 |
3.80 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
6.75 |
3.57 |
Go to Top
Aston Villa vs Tottenham at 21 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Tottenham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 21 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Aston Villa |
3.03 |
2.47 |
7.5 |
|
Draw |
3.40 |
3.69 |
-2.3 |
|
Tottenham |
2.42 |
3.10 |
-9.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.08 |
-5.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.93 |
1.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Aston Villa, Under 2.5 (7.5 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Aston Villa in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance at home.
Aston Villa, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
12 Mar |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Wolves |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Mar |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Feb |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
Tottenham in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tottenham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Tottenham’s performance as a guest.
Tottenham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tottenham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Mar |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Mar |
Crystal Palace |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
04 Mar |
Fulham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Feb |
Burnley |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
21 Feb |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Feb |
Man City |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
07 Feb |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
04 Feb |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The form score for the Aston Villa is -0.163 and for the Tottenham is 0.12.
The home dynamic for the Aston Villa is -0.074 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tottenham is 0.291.
The offensive ability for the Aston Villa is -0.157 and for the Tottenham is 0.682.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Aston Villa is -0.037 and for the Tottenham is -0.217.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Tottenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Aston Villa |
25% |
37% |
19% |
19% |
|
Tottenham |
31% |
35% |
20% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.19 goals and Tottenham to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.32 goals and Tottenham to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.58 |
|
1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.11 |
|
2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
4.07 |
|
3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |
|
5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
|
6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |
|
NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.62 |
3.21 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.55 |
3.67 |
2.98 |
|
4+ goals |
2.37 |
3.78 |
3.19 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.71 |
3.05 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.62 |
3.21 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
7.40 |
2.59 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
2.51 |
3.78 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.78 |
3.19 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.66 |
3.06 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.02 |
2.66 |
3.40 |
|
No Goal |
2.06 |
6.26 |
2.82 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.97 |
2.55 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.26 |
2.84 |
Go to Top
West Ham vs Arsenal at 21 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between West Ham and Arsenal for Premier League (England), which will take place on 21 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
West Ham |
2.85 |
2.15 |
11.4 |
|
Draw |
3.45 |
3.85 |
-3.0 |
|
Arsenal |
2.55 |
3.65 |
-11.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.00 |
-1.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.00 |
-2.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at West Ham (11.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
West Ham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance at home.
West Ham, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 64.3% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Mar |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Mar |
Leeds |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Man City |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Feb |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Feb |
Sheffield United |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Feb |
Aston Villa |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
Arsenal in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Arsenal in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance as a guest.
Arsenal, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Mar |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Feb |
Leicester |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Feb |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Leeds |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Feb |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The form score for the West Ham is 0.126 and for the Arsenal is 0.32.
The home dynamic for the West Ham is 0.181 and the dynamic as a guest for the Arsenal is 0.241.
The offensive ability for the West Ham is 0.217 and for the Arsenal is 0.313.
Finally, the defensive ability for the West Ham is -0.059 and for the Arsenal is -1.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, West Ham and the red line for guest team, Arsenal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
West Ham |
22% |
32% |
25% |
21% |
|
Arsenal |
34% |
36% |
19% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.2 goals and Arsenal to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.45 goals and Arsenal to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team West Ham to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.85 |
|
1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.95 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |
|
5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |
|
NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |