# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Gil Vicente vs Nacional at 19 March 2021**** Portimonense vs Porto at 20 March 2021**** Sp Lisbon vs Guimaraes at 20 March 2021**** Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense at 20 March 2021**** Santa Clara vs Tondela at 20 March 2021**** Sp Braga vs Benfica at 21 March 2021**** Rio Ave vs Belenenses at 21 March 2021**** Maritimo vs Famalicao at 21 March 2021**** Boavista vs Farense at 21 March 2021**

###
Gil Vicente vs Nacional at 19 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Gil Vicente** and **Nacional** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **19 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Gil Vicente |
2.02 |
1.98 |
1.0 |

Draw |
3.21 |
3.82 |
-5.0 |

Nacional |
3.85 |
4.31 |
-2.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.24 |
2.02 |
4.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.98 |
-9.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Gil Vicente, Over 2.5 (1 %, 4.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Gil Vicente** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gil Vicente** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance** at home**.

Gil Vicente,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Guimaraes |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Porto |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Portimonense |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Boavista |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Nacional** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nacional** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance** as a guest**.

Nacional,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Mar |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Mar |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Sp Braga |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Farense |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Gil Vicente** is **-0.281** and for the **Nacional** is **-0.704.**

The home dynamic for the **Gil Vicente** is **-0.585** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Nacional** is **-0.266.**

The offensive ability for the **Gil Vicente** is **0.157** and for the **Nacional** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Gil Vicente** is **-0.681** and for the **Nacional** is **-0.678.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Gil Vicente** and the red line for guest team, **Nacional. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Gil Vicente |
20% |
32% |
26% |
23% |

Nacional |
32% |
47% |
8% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Gil Vicente** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Nacional** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and the home team **Gil Vicente ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Gil Vicente** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Nacional** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Gil Vicente ** to win by **0.51** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
4.00 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |

NoG |
2.20 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.54 |
4.08 |
2.76 |

2-3 goals |
1.78 |
3.31 |
7.36 |

4+ goals |
1.95 |
5.00 |
3.47 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.83 |
3.73 |
5.35 |

Un 1.5 |
2.54 |
4.08 |
2.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
9.92 |
4.03 |

Un 2.5 |
2.75 |
2.38 |
4.62 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.95 |
5.00 |
3.47 |

Un 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.54 |
4.69 |

Goal-Goal |
2.19 |
2.74 |
5.57 |

No Goal |
1.77 |
7.21 |
3.39 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.59 |
7.94 |
4.05 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
7.21 |
3.26 |

####
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###
Portimonense vs Porto at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Portimonense** and **Porto** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Portimonense |
7.75 |
4.61 |
8.8 |

Draw |
4.32 |
3.92 |
2.4 |

Porto |
1.42 |
1.89 |
-17.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.27 |
-8.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.79 |
3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Portimonense, Draw, Under 2.5 (8.8 %, 2.4 %, 3.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Portimonense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portimonense** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance** at home**.

Portimonense,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Tondela |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Maritimo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Feb |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Porto** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Porto** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance** as a guest**.

Porto,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 72.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Boavista |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Sp Braga |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Feb |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Rio Ave |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Portimonense** is **-0.022** and for the **Porto** is **0.664.**

The home dynamic for the **Portimonense** is **0** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Porto** is **0.713.**

The offensive ability for the **Portimonense** is **-0.565** and for the **Porto** is **0.597.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Portimonense** is **-0.015** and for the **Porto** is **0.304.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Portimonense** and the red line for guest team, **Porto. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Portimonense |
41% |
38% |
15% |
6% |

Porto |
25% |
25% |
32% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Portimonense** to score **0.58 ** goals and **Porto** to score **1.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the guest team **Porto ** to win by **1.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Portimonense** to score **0.86 ** goals and **Porto** to score **1.44 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and the guest team **Porto ** to win by **0.58** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
3.38 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.77 |
4+ |
5.29 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.38 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.78 |

Gg |
2.25 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.29 |

NoG |
1.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.15 |
2.93 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
5.71 |
5.41 |
1.56 |

4+ goals |
5.73 |
3.20 |
1.95 |

Ov 1.5 |
5.72 |
4.56 |
1.65 |

Un 1.5 |
3.15 |
2.93 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
5.15 |
7.42 |
1.49 |

Un 2.5 |
4.25 |
2.86 |
2.41 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.73 |
3.20 |
1.95 |

Un 3.5 |
4.40 |
4.13 |
1.88 |

Goal-Goal |
6.27 |
2.89 |
2.02 |

No Goal |
3.79 |
5.49 |
1.80 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
4.93 |
5.93 |
1.59 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.53 |
5.49 |
2.00 |

####
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###
Sp Lisbon vs Guimaraes at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sp Lisbon** and **Guimaraes** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sp Lisbon |
1.51 |
2.11 |
-18.8 |

Draw |
4.04 |
3.72 |
2.1 |

Guimaraes |
6.79 |
3.89 |
11.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.45 |
-7.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.69 |
2.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Guimaraes, Under 2.5 (2.1 %, 11 %, 2.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sp Lisbon** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Lisbon** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance** at home**.

Sp Lisbon,** at home**, had 9 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 29 points, 87.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Tondela |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Mar |
Santa Clara |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Porto |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Portimonense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Guimaraes** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Guimaraes** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance** as a guest**.

Guimaraes,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Gil Vicente |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Feb |
Boavista |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Feb |
Farense |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Feb |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Feb |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Sp Lisbon** is **0.83** and for the **Guimaraes** is **-0.464.**

The home dynamic for the **Sp Lisbon** is **1** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Guimaraes** is **0.485.**

The offensive ability for the **Sp Lisbon** is **0.591** and for the **Guimaraes** is **0.571.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sp Lisbon** is **0.356** and for the **Guimaraes** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sp Lisbon** and the red line for guest team, **Guimaraes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sp Lisbon |
26% |
34% |
22% |
17% |

Guimaraes |
45% |
25% |
24% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.77 ** goals and **Guimaraes** to score **0.61 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **1.16** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Guimaraes** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and the home team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.33 |
0-1 |
2.92 |

1 |
4.48 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
5.62 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.52 |

4 |
8.70 |
Un 1.5 |
2.92 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |

Gg |
2.49 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.62 |

NoG |
1.67 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.20 |
2.86 |
5.12 |

2-3 goals |
2.04 |
5.52 |
3.04 |

4+ goals |
2.14 |
2.87 |
5.39 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.07 |
4.42 |
3.45 |

Un 1.5 |
2.20 |
2.86 |
5.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.58 |
3.16 |

Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.86 |
4.60 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.14 |
2.87 |
5.39 |

Un 3.5 |
2.10 |
3.98 |
3.66 |

Goal-Goal |
2.89 |
2.70 |
3.53 |

No Goal |
1.79 |
4.99 |
4.16 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.08 |
2.76 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
4.99 |
3.92 |

####
Go to Top

###
Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Pacos Ferreira** and **Moreirense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Pacos Ferreira |
1.90 |
1.90 |
0.0 |

Draw |
3.30 |
3.88 |
-4.5 |

Moreirense |
4.28 |
4.65 |
-1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.17 |
4.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.85 |
-9.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (4.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Pacos Ferreira** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pacos Ferreira** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance** at home**.

Pacos Ferreira,** at home**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Porto |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Mar |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Feb |
Guimaraes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Portimonense |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Moreirense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Moreirense** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance** as a guest**.

Moreirense,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Mar |
Belenenses |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Feb |
Boavista |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Feb |
Farense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Feb |
Famalicao |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **-0.17** and for the **Moreirense** is **0.256.**

The home dynamic for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **0.734** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Moreirense** is **-0.055.**

The offensive ability for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **-0.539** and for the **Moreirense** is **0.631.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **-0.726** and for the **Moreirense** is **-0.565.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Pacos Ferreira** and the red line for guest team, **Moreirense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Pacos Ferreira |
21% |
32% |
25% |
22% |

Moreirense |
40% |
39% |
13% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Moreirense** to score **0.77 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.14** goals in the game and the home team **Pacos Ferreira ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Moreirense** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the home team **Pacos Ferreira ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.45 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
1.91 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |