2021 03 19 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Gil Vicente vs Nacional at 19 March 2021
Portimonense vs Porto at 20 March 2021
Sp Lisbon vs Guimaraes at 20 March 2021
Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense at 20 March 2021
Santa Clara vs Tondela at 20 March 2021
Sp Braga vs Benfica at 21 March 2021
Rio Ave vs Belenenses at 21 March 2021
Maritimo vs Famalicao at 21 March 2021
Boavista vs Farense at 21 March 2021


Gil Vicente vs Nacional at 19 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gil Vicente and Nacional for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 19 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Gil Vicente

2.02

1.98

1.0

Draw

3.21

3.82

-5.0

Nacional

3.85

4.31

-2.8

Over 2.5

2.24

2.02

4.9

Under 2.5

1.66

1.98

-9.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Gil Vicente, Over 2.5 (1 %, 4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Gil Vicente in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gil Vicente in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance at home.
Gil Vicente, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Guimaraes

A

4

2

W

O

G

06 Mar

Porto

H

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Tondela

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Santa Clara

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Portimonense

A

1

4

L

O

G

09 Feb

Sp Lisbon

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Feb

Boavista

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

2

L

O

G


Nacional in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nacional in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance as a guest.
Nacional, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Mar

Maritimo

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Mar

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Sp Braga

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Belenenses

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Farense

H

2

3

L

O

G

09 Feb

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Feb

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Famalicao

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Gil Vicente is -0.281 and for the Nacional is -0.704.
The home dynamic for the Gil Vicente is -0.585 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nacional is -0.266.
The offensive ability for the Gil Vicente is 0.157 and for the Nacional is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Gil Vicente is -0.681 and for the Nacional is -0.678.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Gil Vicente and the red line for guest team, Nacional.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Gil Vicente

20%

32%

26%

23%

Nacional

32%

47%

8%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 1.38 goals and Nacional to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Gil Vicente to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 1.52 goals and Nacional to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Gil Vicente to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

3.89

1

5.15

2-3

2.03

2

4.05

4+

4.00

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

5.88

Un 1.5

3.89

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

4.00

NoG

2.20

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.54

4.08

2.76

2-3 goals

1.78

3.31

7.36

4+ goals

1.95

5.00

3.47

Ov 1.5

1.83

3.73

5.35

Un 1.5

2.54

4.08

2.76

Ov 2.5

1.54

9.92

4.03

Un 2.5

2.75

2.38

4.62

Ov 3.5

1.95

5.00

3.47

Un 3.5

1.98

3.54

4.69

Goal-Goal

2.19

2.74

5.57

No Goal

1.77

7.21

3.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.59

7.94

4.05

NG+Un 2.5

1.94

7.21

3.26


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Portimonense vs Porto at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Portimonense and Porto for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Portimonense

7.75

4.61

8.8

Draw

4.32

3.92

2.4

Porto

1.42

1.89

-17.5

Over 2.5

1.90

2.27

-8.6

Under 2.5

1.90

1.79

3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Portimonense, Draw, Under 2.5 (8.8 %, 2.4 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Portimonense in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portimonense in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance at home.
Portimonense, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Santa Clara

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Tondela

H

3

0

W

O

N

28 Feb

Maritimo

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Sp Lisbon

A

0

2

L

U

N

14 Feb

Gil Vicente

H

4

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Feb

Sp Braga

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Boavista

H

1

2

L

O

G


Porto in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Porto in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance as a guest.
Porto, as a guest, had 7 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 72.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Gil Vicente

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Sp Lisbon

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Feb

Maritimo

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Boavista

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Feb

Sp Braga

A

2

2

D

O

G

04 Feb

Belenenses

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

Rio Ave

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Portimonense is -0.022 and for the Porto is 0.664.
The home dynamic for the Portimonense is 0 and the dynamic as a guest for the Porto is 0.713.
The offensive ability for the Portimonense is -0.565 and for the Porto is 0.597.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Portimonense is -0.015 and for the Porto is 0.304.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Portimonense and the red line for guest team, Porto.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Portimonense

41%

38%

15%

6%

Porto

25%

25%

32%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portimonense to score 0.58 goals and Porto to score 1.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 1.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portimonense to score 0.86 goals and Porto to score 1.44 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.38

1

5.13

2-3

1.95

2

3.77

4+

5.29

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.58

Un 1.5

3.38

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

2.25

Ov 3.5

5.29

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.15

2.93

2.93

2-3 goals

5.71

5.41

1.56

4+ goals

5.73

3.20

1.95

Ov 1.5

5.72

4.56

1.65

Un 1.5

3.15

2.93

2.93

Ov 2.5

5.15

7.42

1.49

Un 2.5

4.25

2.86

2.41

Ov 3.5

5.73

3.20

1.95

Un 3.5

4.40

4.13

1.88

Goal-Goal

6.27

2.89

2.02

No Goal

3.79

5.49

1.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

4.93

5.93

1.59

NG+Un 2.5

3.53

5.49

2.00


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sp Lisbon vs Guimaraes at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Lisbon and Guimaraes for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sp Lisbon

1.51

2.11

-18.8

Draw

4.04

3.72

2.1

Guimaraes

6.79

3.89

11.0

Over 2.5

2.06

2.45

-7.7

Under 2.5

1.76

1.69

2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Guimaraes, Under 2.5 (2.1 %, 11 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance at home.
Sp Lisbon, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 29 points, 87.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Tondela

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

Santa Clara

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Porto

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Portimonense

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Feb

Maritimo

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Benfica

H

1

0

W

U

N


Guimaraes in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance as a guest.
Guimaraes, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Gil Vicente

H

2

4

L

O

G

09 Mar

Sp Braga

A

0

3

L

O

N

26 Feb

Boavista

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Feb

Farense

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Rio Ave

H

1

3

L

O

G

08 Feb

Belenenses

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Feb

Benfica

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Sp Lisbon is 0.83 and for the Guimaraes is -0.464.
The home dynamic for the Sp Lisbon is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Guimaraes is 0.485.
The offensive ability for the Sp Lisbon is 0.591 and for the Guimaraes is 0.571.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sp Lisbon is 0.356 and for the Guimaraes is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Lisbon and the red line for guest team, Guimaraes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sp Lisbon

26%

34%

22%

17%

Guimaraes

45%

25%

24%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.77 goals and Guimaraes to score 0.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.16 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.3 goals and Guimaraes to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.33

0-1

2.92

1

4.48

2-3

2.08

2

4.00

4+

5.62

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.52

4

8.70

Un 1.5

2.92

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.45

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.49

Ov 3.5

5.62

NoG

1.67

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.20

2.86

5.12

2-3 goals

2.04

5.52

3.04

4+ goals

2.14

2.87

5.39

Ov 1.5

2.07

4.42

3.45

Un 1.5

2.20

2.86

5.12

Ov 2.5

1.88

6.58

3.16

Un 2.5

2.31

2.86

4.60

Ov 3.5

2.14

2.87

5.39

Un 3.5

2.10

3.98

3.66

Goal-Goal

2.89

2.70

3.53

No Goal

1.79

4.99

4.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.27

5.08

2.76

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

4.99

3.92


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Moreirense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pacos Ferreira

1.90

1.90

0.0

Draw

3.30

3.88

-4.5

Moreirense

4.28

4.65

-1.9

Over 2.5

2.43

2.17

4.9

Under 2.5

1.58

1.85

-9.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance at home.
Pacos Ferreira, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Porto

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Mar

Nacional

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Santa Clara

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Feb

Guimaraes

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Feb

Sp Lisbon

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Portimonense

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Feb

Tondela

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G


Moreirense in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Moreirense in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance as a guest.
Moreirense, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Rio Ave

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Maritimo

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Belenenses

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Feb

Boavista

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Benfica

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Feb

Farense

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Feb

Famalicao

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Sp Braga

H

0

4

L

O

N


The form score for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.17 and for the Moreirense is 0.256.
The home dynamic for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.734 and the dynamic as a guest for the Moreirense is -0.055.
The offensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.539 and for the Moreirense is 0.631.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.726 and for the Moreirense is -0.565.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Moreirense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pacos Ferreira

21%

32%

25%

22%

Moreirense

40%

39%

13%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.36 goals and Moreirense to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.49 goals and Moreirense to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.45

1

4.83

2-3

2.02

2

3.98

4+

4.67

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.45

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-