Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Las Palmas vs Girona at 19 March 2021
Espanol vs Logrones at 20 March 2021
Sabadell vs Sp Gijon at 20 March 2021
Mallorca vs Oviedo at 20 March 2021
Leganes vs Fuenlabrada at 20 March 2021
Ponferradina vs Almeria at 21 March 2021
Malaga vs Tenerife at 21 March 2021
Lugo vs Castellon at 21 March 2021
Alcorcon vs Vallecano at 21 March 2021
Albacete vs Cartagena at 22 March 2021
Zaragoza vs Mirandes at 22 March 2021
Las Palmas vs Girona at 19 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Las Palmas and Girona for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 19 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Las Palmas |
2.67 |
2.17 |
8.6 |
|
Draw |
2.90 |
3.62 |
-6.9 |
|
Girona |
2.99 |
3.77 |
-6.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.31 |
3.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.76 |
-9.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Las Palmas, Over 2.5 (8.6 %, 3.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Las Palmas in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Las Palmas in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance at home.
Las Palmas, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 64.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Mar |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Mar |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Feb |
Sabadell |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Mirandes |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Leganes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Girona in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Girona in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance as a guest.
Girona, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Girona was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Mar |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
07 Mar |
Almeria |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Feb |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Feb |
Castellon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Feb |
Mirandes |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
07 Feb |
Leganes |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Mallorca |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Las Palmas is -0.096 and for the Girona is -0.096.
The home dynamic for the Las Palmas is 0.245 and the dynamic as a guest for the Girona is 0.097.
The offensive ability for the Las Palmas is 0.278 and for the Girona is 0.253.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Las Palmas is -0.681 and for the Girona is -1.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Las Palmas and the red line for guest team, Girona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Las Palmas |
24% |
35% |
26% |
16% |
|
Girona |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.07 goals and Girona to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.33 goals and Girona to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Las Palmas to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.32 |
|
1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.08 |
|
3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |
|
4 |
7.46 |
Un 1.5 |
3.32 |
|
5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |
|
Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.08 |
|
NoG |
1.94 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.46 |
3.42 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.05 |
3.92 |
3.89 |
|
4+ goals |
2.21 |
3.23 |
4.19 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.70 |
3.97 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.46 |
3.42 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
7.10 |
3.31 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.64 |
4.26 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.21 |
3.23 |
4.19 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.73 |
3.70 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.56 |
4.32 |
|
No Goal |
1.86 |
5.93 |
3.39 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
5.84 |
3.18 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.93 |
3.30 |
Go to Top
Espanol vs Logrones at 20 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Espanol and Logrones for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Espanol |
1.36 |
1.75 |
-16.4 |
|
Draw |
4.43 |
4.08 |
1.9 |
|
Logrones |
9.24 |
5.49 |
7.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.18 |
-0.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.85 |
-4.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Logrones (1.9 %, 7.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Espanol in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Espanol in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Espanol’s performance at home.
Espanol, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 76.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Espanol was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Mar |
Mirandes |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
05 Mar |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Feb |
Sp Gijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Sabadell |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Mallorca |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
08 Feb |
Lugo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Vallecano |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Girona |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Logrones in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Logrones in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance as a guest.
Logrones, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 31.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Logrones was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Mar |
Malaga |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Mar |
Albacete |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Feb |
Lugo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Feb |
Alcorcon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Sp Gijon |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
01 Feb |
Sabadell |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Oviedo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The form score for the Espanol is 0.311 and for the Logrones is -0.624.
The home dynamic for the Espanol is 0.606 and the dynamic as a guest for the Logrones is -0.08.
The offensive ability for the Espanol is 1 and for the Logrones is -0.519.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Espanol is -0.681 and for the Logrones is -1.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Espanol and the red line for guest team, Logrones.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Espanol |
18% |
33% |
26% |
24% |
|
Logrones |
45% |
35% |
14% |
6% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.85 goals and Logrones to score 0.48 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 1.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.55 goals and Logrones to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.48 |
|
1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
1.97 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.88 |
|
3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |
|
5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
|
6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
|
Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.88 |
|
NoG |
1.84 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.94 |
3.68 |
4.70 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.64 |
4.42 |
6.12 |
|
4+ goals |
1.78 |
4.02 |
5.26 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.68 |
4.30 |
5.84 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.94 |
3.68 |
4.70 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.48 |
8.98 |
4.72 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.81 |
6.30 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.78 |
4.02 |
5.26 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.74 |
4.12 |
5.52 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.24 |
2.75 |
5.30 |
|
No Goal |
1.47 |
6.97 |
5.61 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
6.69 |
3.97 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.62 |
6.97 |
4.97 |
Go to Top
Sabadell vs Sp Gijon at 20 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sabadell and Sp Gijon for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sabadell |
3.41 |
2.66 |
8.3 |
|
Draw |
2.82 |
3.46 |
-6.6 |
|
Sp Gijon |
2.41 |
2.99 |
-8.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.83 |
2.49 |
4.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.44 |
1.67 |
-9.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Sabadell, Over 2.5 (8.3 %, 4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sabadell in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sabadell in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance at home.
Sabadell, at home, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Mar |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Mar |
Malaga |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Feb |
Albacete |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Feb |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
07 Feb |
Las Palmas |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
01 Feb |
Logrones |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
Sp Gijon in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Gijon in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sp Gijon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Gijon, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Gijon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Mar |
Mallorca |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
07 Mar |
Ponferradina |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
28 Feb |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Albacete |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Malaga |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Logrones |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Cartagena |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The form score for the Sabadell is -0.407 and for the Sp Gijon is 0.776.
The home dynamic for the Sabadell is -0.66 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Gijon is -0.156.
The offensive ability for the Sabadell is -0.217 and for the Sp Gijon is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sabadell is -0.385 and for the Sp Gijon is 0.504.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sabadell and the red line for guest team, Sp Gijon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sabadell |
30% |
37% |
23% |
10% |
|
Sp Gijon |
34% |
35% |
22% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sabadell to score 0.86 goals and Sp Gijon to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.93 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sabadell to score 1.14 goals and Sp Gijon to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
3.05 |
|
1 |
4.39 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.69 |
4+ |
5.65 |
|
3 |
4.44 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |
|
4 |
8.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.05 |
|
5 |
22.73 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |
|
6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.67 |
|
Gg |
2.14 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.65 |
|
NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.21 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.67 |
3.28 |
3.12 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.56 |
3.82 |
2.88 |
|
4+ goals |
3.00 |
2.95 |
3.05 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.54 |
2.93 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.28 |
3.12 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
6.70 |
2.42 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.99 |
2.60 |
3.54 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.00 |
2.95 |
3.05 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.58 |
2.97 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.32 |
2.46 |
3.42 |
|
No Goal |
2.27 |
5.33 |
2.69 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.40 |
5.63 |
2.47 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
5.33 |
2.78 |
Go to Top
Mallorca vs Oviedo at 20 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Mallorca and Oviedo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Mallorca |
1.79 |
1.94 |
-4.3 |
|
Draw |
3.22 |
3.85 |
-5.1 |
|
Oviedo |
5.20 |
4.48 |
3.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.16 |
7.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.86 |
-13.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Oviedo, Over 2.5 (3.1 %, 7.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Mallorca in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mallorca in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Mallorca’s performance at home.
Mallorca, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 64.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mallorca was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Mar |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Mar |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Logrones |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Feb |
Almeria |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Feb |
Albacete |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Girona |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Vallecano |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Oviedo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance as a guest.
Oviedo, as a guest, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Mar |
Leganes |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Mar |
Espanol |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Feb |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Feb |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
15 Feb |
Lugo |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Cartagena |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Albacete |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Logrones |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The form score for the Mallorca is 0.311 and for the Oviedo is 0.064.
The home dynamic for the Mallorca is 0.213 and the dynamic as a guest for the Oviedo is 0.114.
The offensive ability for the Mallorca is 0.539 and for the Oviedo is 0.682.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Mallorca is -0.059 and for the Oviedo is -0.591.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mallorca and the red line for guest team, Oviedo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Mallorca |
19% |
34% |
27% |
20% |
|
Oviedo |
39% |
36% |
18% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mallorca to score 1.36 goals and Oviedo to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and the home team Mallorca to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mallorca to score 1.47 goals and Oviedo to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Mallorca to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.61 |
|
1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
1.96 |
|
2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
4.69 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |
|
5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |