# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Juventus vs Napoli at 17 March 2021**** Parma vs Genoa at 19 March 2021**** Spezia vs Cagliari at 20 March 2021**** Crotone vs Bologna at 20 March 2021**** Inter vs Sassuolo at 20 March 2021**** Udinese vs Lazio at 21 March 2021**** Sampdoria vs Torino at 21 March 2021**** Roma vs Napoli at 21 March 2021**** Juventus vs Benevento at 21 March 2021**** Fiorentina vs Milan at 21 March 2021**** Verona vs Atalanta at 21 March 2021**

###
Juventus vs Napoli at 17 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Juventus** and **Napoli** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **17 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Juventus |
1.87 |
2.24 |
-8.8 |

Draw |
3.67 |
3.79 |
-0.9 |

Napoli |
4.30 |
3.46 |
5.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.80 |
2.08 |
-7.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
1.93 |
3.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Napoli, Under 2.5 (5.6 %, 3.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Juventus** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Juventus** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance** at home**.

Juventus,** at home**, had 10 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 32 points, 82.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Cagliari |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Lazio |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Spezia |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Verona |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Feb |
Crotone |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Napoli |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Roma |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Sampdoria |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Napoli** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Napoli** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance** as a guest**.

Napoli,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Milan |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Bologna |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Sassuolo |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Benevento |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Atalanta |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Genoa |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Parma |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Juventus** is **0.927** and for the **Napoli** is **0.481.**

The home dynamic for the **Juventus** is **1** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Napoli** is **0.305.**

The offensive ability for the **Juventus** is **0.668** and for the **Napoli** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Juventus** is **-0.084** and for the **Napoli** is **0.142.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Juventus** and the red line for guest team, **Napoli. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Juventus |
26% |
27% |
30% |
17% |

Napoli |
38% |
25% |
27% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Juventus** to score **1.73 ** goals and **Napoli** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the home team **Juventus ** to win by **0.78** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Juventus** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Napoli** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.10 |
0-1 |
3.75 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.15 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |

5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.15 |

NoG |
1.85 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.59 |
2.70 |
4.11 |

2-3 goals |
1.93 |
7.22 |
2.92 |

4+ goals |
2.71 |
2.48 |
4.38 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.13 |
4.44 |
3.28 |

Un 1.5 |
2.59 |
2.70 |
4.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
4.95 |
3.14 |

Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
3.11 |
3.84 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.71 |
2.48 |
4.38 |

Un 3.5 |
2.12 |
4.54 |
3.25 |

Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.77 |
3.57 |

No Goal |
1.92 |
5.47 |
3.39 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
4.01 |
3.04 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.47 |
3.34 |

####
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###
Parma vs Genoa at 19 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Parma** and **Genoa** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **19 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Parma |
2.42 |
2.48 |
-1.0 |

Draw |
3.12 |
3.37 |
-2.4 |

Genoa |
3.28 |
3.34 |
-0.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.08 |
4.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.92 |
-8.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (4.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Parma** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Parma** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Parma** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Parma** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance** at home**.

Parma,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Parma scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Roma |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
Fiorentina |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Mar |
Inter |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Spezia |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Udinese |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Verona |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Bologna |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Napoli |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Genoa** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Genoa** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance** as a guest**.

Genoa,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Mar |
Udinese |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Mar |
Roma |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Mar |
Sampdoria |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Inter |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Verona |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Torino |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Napoli |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Crotone |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Parma** is **-0.111** and for the **Genoa** is **-0.296.**

The home dynamic for the **Parma** is **-0.777** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Genoa** is **-0.046.**

The offensive ability for the **Parma** is **1** and for the **Genoa** is **-0.116.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Parma** is **-0.607** and for the **Genoa** is **-0.678.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Parma** and the red line for guest team, **Genoa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Parma |
21% |
41% |
16% |
21% |

Genoa |
26% |
46% |
14% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Parma** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Genoa** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Parma** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Genoa** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
18.18 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
4.59 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.72 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.40 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.42 |
4.71 |
2.67 |

2-3 goals |
2.80 |
2.54 |
4.02 |

4+ goals |
2.07 |
4.92 |
3.18 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.49 |
3.07 |
3.68 |

Un 1.5 |
2.42 |
4.71 |
2.67 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
9.04 |
2.80 |

Un 2.5 |
3.48 |
2.14 |
4.09 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.07 |
4.92 |
3.18 |

Un 3.5 |
2.65 |
3.03 |
3.41 |

Goal-Goal |
2.91 |
2.41 |
4.13 |

No Goal |
2.04 |
7.56 |
2.65 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
7.43 |
2.79 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
7.56 |
2.61 |

####
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###
Spezia vs Cagliari at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Spezia** and **Cagliari** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Spezia |
2.69 |
2.39 |
4.7 |

Draw |
3.15 |
3.70 |
-4.7 |

Cagliari |
2.82 |
3.22 |
-4.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.07 |
-0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.93 |
-3.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Spezia (4.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Spezia** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Spezia** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance** at home**.

Spezia,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Mar |
Atalanta |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Benevento |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Juventus |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Parma |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Feb |
Fiorentina |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Milan |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Sassuolo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Udinese |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Cagliari** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Cagliari scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cagliari** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cagliari** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance** as a guest**.

Cagliari,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cagliari scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cagliari was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Sampdoria |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Crotone |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Torino |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Atalanta |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Lazio |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Sassuolo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Spezia** is **-0.385** and for the **Cagliari** is **-0.08.**

The home dynamic for the **Spezia** is **-0.84** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cagliari** is **-0.451.**

The offensive ability for the **Spezia** is **0.243** and for the **Cagliari** is **0.339.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Spezia** is **-0.726** and for the **Cagliari** is **-0.217.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Spezia** and the red line for guest team, **Cagliari. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Spezia |
28% |
24% |
32% |
15% |

Cagliari |
38% |
23% |
29% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Spezia** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Cagliari** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Spezia** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Cagliari** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.43 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
6.41 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.00 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
2.24 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |

NoG |
1.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.85 |
2.47 |
4.09 |

2-3 goals |
1.96 |
8.85 |
2.66 |

4+ goals |
3.21 |
2.31 |
3.91 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.25 |
4.52 |
2.98 |

Un 1.5 |
2.85 |
2.47 |
4.09 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
4.45 |
2.90 |

Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
3.22 |
3.57 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.21 |
2.31 |
3.91 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
4.65 |
3.03 |

Goal-Goal |
2.98 |
2.74 |
3.34 |

No Goal |
2.05 |
5.21 |
3.12 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.61 |
3.63 |
2.93 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.21 |
3.19 |

####
Go to Top

###
Crotone vs Bologna at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crotone** and **Bologna** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **20 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crotone |
3.50 |
2.66 |
9.0 |

Draw |
3.53 |
3.73 |
-1.5 |

Bologna |
2.10 |
2.81 |
-12.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.96 |
-5.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.04 |
0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crotone, Under 2.5 (9 %, 0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crotone** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crotone** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance** at home**.

Crotone,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 8 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Mar |
Lazio |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Torino |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Atalanta |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Cagliari |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Juventus |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
Sassuolo |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Milan |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Genoa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Bologna** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bologna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bologna** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bologna scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance** as a guest**.

Bologna,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bologna scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Mar |
Sampdoria |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Napoli |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Mar |
Cagliari |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Lazio |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Sassuolo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Feb |
Benevento |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Feb |
Parma |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Milan |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Crotone** is **-0.63** and for the **Bologna** is **0.08.**

The home dynamic for the **Crotone** is **-0.543** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bologna** is **-0.359.**

The offensive ability for the **Crotone** is **0.278** and for the **Bologna** is **0.597.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Crotone** is **-1** and for the **Bologna** is **-0.626.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crotone** and the red line for guest team, **Bologna. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crotone |
31% |
20% |
36% |
13% |

Bologna |
32% |
24% |
27% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crotone** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Bologna** to score **1.59 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the guest team **Bologna ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crotone** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Bologna** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
4.15 |

1 |
7.14 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
3.62 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |

5 |
10.75 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
2.15 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.62 |

NoG |
1.87 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |