2021 03 19 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Juventus vs Napoli at 17 March 2021
Parma vs Genoa at 19 March 2021
Spezia vs Cagliari at 20 March 2021
Crotone vs Bologna at 20 March 2021
Inter vs Sassuolo at 20 March 2021
Udinese vs Lazio at 21 March 2021
Sampdoria vs Torino at 21 March 2021
Roma vs Napoli at 21 March 2021
Juventus vs Benevento at 21 March 2021
Fiorentina vs Milan at 21 March 2021
Verona vs Atalanta at 21 March 2021


Juventus vs Napoli at 17 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Juventus and Napoli for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 17 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Juventus

1.87

2.24

-8.8

Draw

3.67

3.79

-0.9

Napoli

4.30

3.46

5.6

Over 2.5

1.80

2.08

-7.5

Under 2.5

2.07

1.93

3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Napoli, Under 2.5 (5.6 %, 3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Juventus in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance at home.
Juventus, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 32 points, 82.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Cagliari

A

3

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Lazio

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Spezia

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Verona

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Feb

Crotone

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Napoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Roma

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Sampdoria

A

2

0

W

U

N


Napoli in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Napoli in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance as a guest.
Napoli, as a guest, had 7 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Milan

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Bologna

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Mar

Sassuolo

A

3

3

D

O

G

28 Feb

Benevento

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Atalanta

A

2

4

L

O

G

13 Feb

Juventus

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Genoa

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Parma

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Juventus is 0.927 and for the Napoli is 0.481.
The home dynamic for the Juventus is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Napoli is 0.305.
The offensive ability for the Juventus is 0.668 and for the Napoli is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Juventus is -0.084 and for the Napoli is 0.142.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Napoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Juventus

26%

27%

30%

17%

Napoli

38%

25%

27%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.73 goals and Napoli to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.38 goals and Napoli to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.75

1

5.95

2-3

2.04

2

3.97

4+

4.15

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.75

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

4.15

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.59

2.70

4.11

2-3 goals

1.93

7.22

2.92

4+ goals

2.71

2.48

4.38

Ov 1.5

2.13

4.44

3.28

Un 1.5

2.59

2.70

4.11

Ov 2.5

2.09

4.95

3.14

Un 2.5

2.39

3.11

3.84

Ov 3.5

2.71

2.48

4.38

Un 3.5

2.12

4.54

3.25

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.77

3.57

No Goal

1.92

5.47

3.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.37

4.01

3.04

NG+Un 2.5

2.08

5.47

3.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Parma vs Genoa at 19 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Parma and Genoa for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 19 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Parma

2.42

2.48

-1.0

Draw

3.12

3.37

-2.4

Genoa

3.28

3.34

-0.5

Over 2.5

2.28

2.08

4.2

Under 2.5

1.66

1.92

-8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (4.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Parma in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Parma in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance at home.
Parma, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Roma

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Fiorentina

A

3

3

D

O

G

04 Mar

Inter

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Spezia

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Udinese

H

2

2

D

O

G

15 Feb

Verona

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Bologna

H

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

Napoli

A

0

2

L

U

N


Genoa in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Genoa in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance as a guest.
Genoa, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Mar

Udinese

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Roma

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Mar

Sampdoria

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Inter

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Verona

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Torino

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Napoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Crotone

A

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Parma is -0.111 and for the Genoa is -0.296.
The home dynamic for the Parma is -0.777 and the dynamic as a guest for the Genoa is -0.046.
The offensive ability for the Parma is 1 and for the Genoa is -0.116.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Parma is -0.607 and for the Genoa is -0.678.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Parma and the red line for guest team, Genoa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Parma

21%

41%

16%

21%

Genoa

26%

46%

14%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Parma to score 1.24 goals and Genoa to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Parma to score 1.37 goals and Genoa to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.18

0-1

3.86

1

4.90

2-3

2.09

2

3.85

4+

3.83

3

4.59

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

5.62

Un 1.5

3.86

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.72

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.40

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.42

4.71

2.67

2-3 goals

2.80

2.54

4.02

4+ goals

2.07

4.92

3.18

Ov 1.5

2.49

3.07

3.68

Un 1.5

2.42

4.71

2.67

Ov 2.5

1.88

9.04

2.80

Un 2.5

3.48

2.14

4.09

Ov 3.5

2.07

4.92

3.18

Un 3.5

2.65

3.03

3.41

Goal-Goal

2.91

2.41

4.13

No Goal

2.04

7.56

2.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

7.43

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

7.56

2.61


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spezia vs Cagliari at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spezia and Cagliari for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spezia

2.69

2.39

4.7

Draw

3.15

3.70

-4.7

Cagliari

2.82

3.22

-4.4

Over 2.5

2.06

2.07

-0.2

Under 2.5

1.80

1.93

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia (4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spezia in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance at home.
Spezia, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Mar

Atalanta

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Benevento

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Juventus

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Parma

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Feb

Fiorentina

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Milan

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Sassuolo

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Udinese

H

0

1

L

U

N


Cagliari in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cagliari in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance as a guest.
Cagliari, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cagliari was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Juventus

H

1

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Sampdoria

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Mar

Bologna

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Crotone

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Feb

Torino

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Atalanta

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Feb

Lazio

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Jan

Sassuolo

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Spezia is -0.385 and for the Cagliari is -0.08.
The home dynamic for the Spezia is -0.84 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cagliari is -0.451.
The offensive ability for the Spezia is 0.243 and for the Cagliari is 0.339.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Spezia is -0.726 and for the Cagliari is -0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Cagliari.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spezia

28%

24%

32%

15%

Cagliari

38%

23%

29%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.22 goals and Cagliari to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.34 goals and Cagliari to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.43

0-1

3.82

1

6.41

2-3

2.05

2

3.91

4+

4.00

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.82

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

4.00

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.85

2.47

4.09

2-3 goals

1.96

8.85

2.66

4+ goals

3.21

2.31

3.91

Ov 1.5

2.25

4.52

2.98

Un 1.5

2.85

2.47

4.09

Ov 2.5

2.32

4.45

2.90

Un 2.5

2.44

3.22

3.57

Ov 3.5

3.21

2.31

3.91

Un 3.5

2.20

4.65

3.03

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.74

3.34

No Goal

2.05

5.21

3.12

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.61

3.63

2.93

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

5.21

3.19


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Crotone vs Bologna at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crotone and Bologna for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crotone

3.50

2.66

9.0

Draw

3.53

3.73

-1.5

Bologna

2.10

2.81

-12.0

Over 2.5

1.78

1.96

-5.2

Under 2.5

2.07

2.04

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crotone, Under 2.5 (9 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crotone in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance at home.
Crotone, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Mar

Lazio

A

2

3

L

O

G

07 Mar

Torino

H

4

2

W

O

G

03 Mar

Atalanta

A

1

5

L

O

G

28 Feb

Cagliari

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Feb

Juventus

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Feb

Sassuolo

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Milan

A

0

4

L

O

N

31 Jan

Genoa

H

0

3

L

O

N


Bologna in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bologna in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance as a guest.
Bologna, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Sampdoria

H

3

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Napoli

A

1

3

L

O

G

03 Mar

Cagliari

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Lazio

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Sassuolo

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Feb

Benevento

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Parma

A

3

0

W

O

N

30 Jan

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Crotone is -0.63 and for the Bologna is 0.08.
The home dynamic for the Crotone is -0.543 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bologna is -0.359.
The offensive ability for the Crotone is 0.278 and for the Bologna is 0.597.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crotone is -1 and for the Bologna is -0.626.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crotone and the red line for guest team, Bologna.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crotone

31%

20%

36%

13%

Bologna

32%

24%

27%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.1 goals and Bologna to score 1.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the guest team Bologna to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.31 goals and Bologna to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

4.15

1

7.14

2-3

2.07

2

3.98

4+

3.62

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.15

5

10.75

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

2.15

Ov 3.5

3.62

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals