2021 03 19 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ascoli vs Cremonese at 19 March 2021
Monza vs Venezia at 20 March 2021
Spal vs Cittadella at 20 March 2021
Pordenone vs Pisa at 20 March 2021
Frosinone vs Lecce at 20 March 2021
Empoli vs Virtus Entella at 20 March 2021
Reggiana vs Cosenza at 20 March 2021
Salernitana vs Brescia at 21 March 2021
Reggina vs Chievo at 21 March 2021


Ascoli vs Cremonese at 19 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ascoli and Cremonese for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 19 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ascoli

3.15

2.68

5.6

Draw

2.97

3.52

-5.3

Cremonese

2.42

2.92

-7.1

Over 2.5

2.23

2.23

0.0

Under 2.5

1.66

1.81

-5.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ascoli (5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ascoli in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance at home.
Ascoli, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Mar

Pescara

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Mar

Venezia

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Virtus Entella

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Pisa

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Salernitana

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Feb

Reggiana

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Frosinone

H

1

1

D

U

G


Cremonese in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cremonese in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cremonese’s performance as a guest.
Cremonese, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cremonese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Mar

Virtus Entella

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Reggiana

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Mar

Salernitana

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Vicenza

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Frosinone

H

4

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Brescia

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Lecce

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Venezia

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Ascoli is -0.096 and for the Cremonese is 0.44.
The home dynamic for the Ascoli is -0.128 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cremonese is -0.055.
The offensive ability for the Ascoli is -0.104 and for the Cremonese is 0.597.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ascoli is -0.652 and for the Cremonese is 0.243.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ascoli and the red line for guest team, Cremonese.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ascoli

27%

36%

26%

11%

Cremonese

28%

39%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ascoli to score 1.03 goals and Cremonese to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ascoli to score 1.21 goals and Cremonese to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.56

1

4.85

2-3

1.95

2

3.68

4+

4.83

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.56

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.78

3.75

2.68

2-3 goals

2.47

3.59

3.17

4+ goals

3.23

3.09

2.72

Ov 1.5

2.65

3.43

3.03

Un 1.5

2.78

3.75

2.68

Ov 2.5

2.26

6.69

2.45

Un 2.5

3.16

2.54

3.46

Ov 3.5

3.23

3.09

2.72

Un 3.5

2.57

3.64

2.97

Goal-Goal

3.14

2.51

3.52

No Goal

2.31

6.31

2.45

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

5.75

2.57

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

6.31

2.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Monza vs Venezia at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monza and Venezia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Monza

2.08

2.11

-0.7

Draw

3.06

3.58

-4.7

Venezia

3.65

4.05

-2.7

Over 2.5

2.26

2.35

-1.7

Under 2.5

1.60

1.74

-5.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Monza in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance at home.
Monza, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Mar

Reggiana

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Pordenone

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Frosinone

A

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Cittadella

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Chievo

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Feb

Pisa

H

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Vicenza

A

2

1

W

O

G


Venezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance as a guest.
Venezia, as a guest, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Mar

Lecce

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Ascoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Brescia

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Mar

Reggiana

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Feb

Empoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Virtus Entella

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cremonese

H

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Monza is 0.319 and for the Venezia is 0.
The home dynamic for the Monza is 0.277 and the dynamic as a guest for the Venezia is 0.089.
The offensive ability for the Monza is 0.217 and for the Venezia is 0.597.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Monza is 0.311 and for the Venezia is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Monza and the red line for guest team, Venezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Monza

21%

39%

23%

17%

Venezia

37%

38%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monza to score 1.31 goals and Venezia to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Monza to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monza to score 1.36 goals and Venezia to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Monza to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.28

1

4.44

2-3

2.00

2

3.75

4+

5.18

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.46

Un 1.5

3.28

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.35

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

5.18

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.12

3.81

3.77

2-3 goals

2.13

3.39

4.23

4+ goals

2.03

3.78

4.11

Ov 1.5

2.10

3.49

4.19

Un 1.5

2.12

3.81

3.77

Ov 2.5

1.73

8.33

3.29

Un 2.5

2.51

2.52

4.89

Ov 3.5

2.03

3.78

4.11

Un 3.5

2.13

3.54

4.04

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.48

4.35

No Goal

1.73

6.31

3.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

6.76

3.05

NG+Un 2.5

1.86

6.31

3.63


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Spal vs Cittadella at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spal and Cittadella for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spal

2.65

2.21

7.5

Draw

3.00

3.69

-6.2

Cittadella

2.83

3.61

-7.6

Over 2.5

2.21

2.20

0.2

Under 2.5

1.67

1.83

-5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spal, Over 2.5 (7.5 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spal in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spal in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spal’s performance at home.
Spal, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Mar

Pisa

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Mar

Virtus Entella

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Pescara

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Salernitana

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Reggina

H

1

4

L

O

G

20 Feb

Vicenza

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Empoli

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Feb

Pordenone

H

1

3

L

O

G


Cittadella in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cittadella in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance as a guest.
Cittadella, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Mar

Salernitana

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Mar

Pisa

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Empoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Pescara

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Monza

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Reggiana

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Pordenone

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cosenza

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Spal is -0.17 and for the Cittadella is -0.04.
The home dynamic for the Spal is 0.319 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cittadella is -0.055.
The offensive ability for the Spal is -0.278 and for the Cittadella is -0.485.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Spal is 0.037 and for the Cittadella is 0.243.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spal and the red line for guest team, Cittadella.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spal

24%

31%

31%

14%

Cittadella

33%

39%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spal to score 1.16 goals and Cittadella to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spal to score 1.35 goals and Cittadella to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.61

1

5.08

2-3

1.95

2

3.75

4+

4.78

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.61

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.78

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

3.46

2.98

2-3 goals

1.92

4.27

4.07

4+ goals

2.61

2.99

3.54

Ov 1.5

2.08

3.80

3.90

Un 1.5

2.66

3.46

2.98

Ov 2.5

1.86

6.50

3.25

Un 2.5

2.64

2.72

3.94

Ov 3.5

2.61

2.99

3.54

Un 3.5

2.13

3.95

3.61

Goal-Goal

2.55

2.66

4.32

No Goal

1.95

6.17

3.07

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

5.50

3.29

NG+Un 2.5

2.06

6.17

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Pordenone vs Pisa at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pordenone and Pisa for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pordenone

2.88

2.32

8.4

Draw

2.87

3.70

-7.8

Pisa

2.70

3.34

-7.1

Over 2.5

2.35

2.15

4.0

Under 2.5

1.60

1.87

-9.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pordenone, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pordenone in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance at home.
Pordenone, at home, had 2 wins, 9 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Mar

Empoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Pescara

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Chievo

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Ascoli

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Cittadella

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Spal

A

3

1

W

O

G


Pisa in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance as a guest.
Pisa, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Mar

Spal

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Mar

Cittadella

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Reggina

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Ascoli

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Vicenza

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Feb

Empoli

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Feb

Monza

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Salernitana

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Pordenone is -0.667 and for the Pisa is 0.264.
The home dynamic for the Pordenone is -0.074 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pisa is -0.08.
The offensive ability for the Pordenone is -1 and for the Pisa is 0.167.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pordenone is -0.63 and for the Pisa is 0.243.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pordenone and the red line for guest team, Pisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pordenone

25%

31%

31%

13%

Pisa

32%

37%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.06 goals and Pisa to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.32 goals and Pisa to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.69

1

5.24

2-3

1.96

2

3.79

4+

4.57

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.69

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-