2021 03 19 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Apollon vs Larisa at 20 March 2021
Giannina vs Atromitos at 20 March 2021
Panetolikos vs Lamia at 20 March 2021
Volos NFC vs OFI Crete at 20 March 2021
Asteras Tripolis vs Panathinaikos at 21 March 2021
PAOK vs AEK at 21 March 2021


Apollon vs Larisa at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Apollon and Larisa for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Apollon

2.08

2.42

-6.8

Draw

3.29

3.53

-2.1

Larisa

3.49

3.29

1.7

Over 2.5

2.22

2.53

-5.5

Under 2.5

1.64

1.65

-0.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Larisa (1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Apollon in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance at home.
Apollon, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Panetolikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Mar

AEK

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

OFI Crete

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Volos NFC

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Feb

Lamia

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Atromitos

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

PAOK

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Olympiakos

H

1

3

L

O

G


Larisa in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance as a guest.
Larisa, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 20.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Olympiakos

H

1

3

L

O

G

10 Mar

Lamia

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

OFI Crete

A

3

2

W

O

G

28 Feb

Panetolikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Lamia

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Atromitos

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

AEK

H

2

4

L

O

G

30 Jan

Volos NFC

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Apollon is 0.015 and for the Larisa is -0.136.
The home dynamic for the Apollon is -0.872 and the dynamic as a guest for the Larisa is -0.646.
The offensive ability for the Apollon is -0.157 and for the Larisa is 0.657.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Apollon is -0.607 and for the Larisa is -0.626.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Apollon and the red line for guest team, Larisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Apollon

30%

36%

18%

16%

Larisa

37%

33%

26%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Apollon to score 1.33 goals and Larisa to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Apollon to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Apollon to score 1.2 goals and Larisa to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.17

0-1

2.92

1

4.27

2-3

2.05

2

3.80

4+

5.88

3

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.52

4

8.70

Un 1.5

2.92

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.53

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.65

Gg

2.25

Ov 3.5

5.88

NoG

1.80

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.54

3.15

3.46

2-3 goals

2.65

4.00

2.68

4+ goals

1.79

3.27

7.39

Ov 1.5

2.36

3.78

3.21

Un 1.5

2.54

3.15

3.46

Ov 2.5

1.85

7.60

3.06

Un 2.5

3.03

2.62

3.46

Ov 3.5

1.79

3.27

7.39

Un 3.5

2.61

3.60

2.96

Goal-Goal

2.88

2.55

3.83

No Goal

2.14

5.11

2.96

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.09

6.19

2.78

NG+Un 2.5

2.42

5.11

2.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Giannina vs Atromitos at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Giannina and Atromitos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Giannina

2.55

2.07

9.1

Draw

2.75

3.47

-7.5

Atromitos

3.16

4.37

-8.8

Over 2.5

2.43

2.84

-5.9

Under 2.5

1.53

1.54

-0.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Giannina (9.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Giannina in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Giannina in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance at home.
Giannina, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Giannina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Asteras Tripolis

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

OFI Crete

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Feb

PAOK

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Feb

Panetolikos

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Atromitos

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Jan

AEK

A

2

0

W

U

N


Atromitos in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance as a guest.
Atromitos, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Asteras Tripolis

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Aris

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Larisa

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Apollon

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Panathinaikos

H

2

3

L

O

G

31 Jan

Giannina

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Jan

Panetolikos

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Giannina is 0.533 and for the Atromitos is -0.416.
The home dynamic for the Giannina is -0.766 and the dynamic as a guest for the Atromitos is -0.097.
The offensive ability for the Giannina is 0.243 and for the Atromitos is 0.142.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Giannina is 0.43 and for the Atromitos is -0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Giannina and the red line for guest team, Atromitos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Giannina

31%

30%

23%

16%

Atromitos

49%

34%

10%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Giannina to score 1.13 goals and Atromitos to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Giannina to score 1.24 goals and Atromitos to score 0.76 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2 goals in the game and the home team Giannina to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.54

0-1

2.46

1

3.95

2-3

2.22

2

4.12

4+

6.94

3

4.83

Ov 1.5

1.68

4

10.10

Un 1.5

2.46

5

30.30

Ov 2.5

2.85

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.54

Gg

2.86

Ov 3.5

6.94

NoG

1.54

Un 3.5

1.17

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.72

2.65

3.90

2-3 goals

1.69

4.46

5.42

4+ goals

2.12

4.24

3.43

Ov 1.5

1.78

4.40

4.75

Un 1.5

2.72

2.65

3.90

Ov 2.5

1.58

10.32

3.69

Un 2.5

2.49

2.56

4.84

Ov 3.5

2.12

4.24

3.43

Un 3.5

2.06

3.37

4.58

Goal-Goal

2.43

2.59

4.93

No Goal

1.92

4.25

4.11

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.73

7.32

3.51

NG+Un 2.5

2.10

4.25

4.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Panetolikos vs Lamia at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panetolikos and Lamia for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Panetolikos

2.20

2.20

0.0

Draw

3.03

3.53

-4.7

Lamia

3.51

3.80

-2.2

Over 2.5

2.72

2.58

2.0

Under 2.5

1.46

1.63

-7.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Panetolikos in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance at home.
Panetolikos, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Apollon

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Mar

Volos NFC

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Larisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Feb

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Aris

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Feb

Giannina

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

PAOK

A

0

5

L

O

N

28 Jan

Atromitos

H

1

1

D

U

G


Lamia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance as a guest.
Lamia, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Atromitos

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Mar

Larisa

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Mar

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Giannina

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Feb

Larisa

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

PAOK

A

0

4

L

O

N

18 Feb

Apollon

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Panetolikos is -0.163 and for the Lamia is 0.104.
The home dynamic for the Panetolikos is -0.553 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lamia is -0.198.
The offensive ability for the Panetolikos is -0.217 and for the Lamia is -0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Panetolikos is -0.015 and for the Lamia is 0.191.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Panetolikos and the red line for guest team, Lamia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Panetolikos

30%

32%

19%

18%

Lamia

42%

33%

19%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 1.14 goals and Lamia to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.97 goals in the game and the home team Panetolikos to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 1.25 goals and Lamia to score 0.87 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team Panetolikos to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.81

0-1

2.72

1

4.18

2-3

2.15

2

4.05

4+

5.92

3

4.57

Ov 1.5

1.57

4

8.77

Un 1.5

2.72

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.58

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.63

Gg

2.48

Ov 3.5

5.92

NoG

1.67

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

2.87

3.63

2-3 goals

2.09

4.28

3.48

4+ goals

1.80

3.67

5.83

Ov 1.5

2.00

4.10

3.90

Un 1.5

2.66

2.87

3.63

Ov 2.5

1.65

8.43

3.63

Un 2.5

2.79

2.59

3.91

Ov 3.5

1.80

3.67

5.83

Un 3.5

2.31

3.51

3.54

Goal-Goal

2.55

2.60

4.48

No Goal

2.02

4.68

3.44

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

6.39

3.27

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

4.68

3.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Volos NFC vs OFI Crete at 20 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Volos NFC and OFI Crete for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 20 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Volos NFC

2.53

2.30

4.0

Draw

3.05

3.44

-3.7

OFI Crete

2.92

3.64

-6.8

Over 2.5

2.20

2.75

-9.1

Under 2.5

1.67

1.57

3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Volos NFC, Under 2.5 (4 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Volos NFC in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance at home.
Volos NFC, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

AEK

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Panetolikos

A

0

1

L

U

N

01 Mar

Olympiakos

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Apollon

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

OFI Crete

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Larisa

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Panathinaikos

H

0

2

L

U

N


OFI Crete in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance as a guest.
OFI Crete, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Mar

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Larisa

H

2

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Apollon

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Giannina

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Volos NFC

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

AEK

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Volos NFC is 0.015 and for the OFI Crete is -1.
The home dynamic for the Volos NFC is -0.511 and the dynamic as a guest for the OFI Crete is -0.249.
The offensive ability for the Volos NFC is 0.243 and for the OFI Crete is -0.142.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Volos NFC is -0.281 and for the OFI Crete is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Volos NFC and the red line for guest team, OFI Crete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Volos NFC

38%

25%

18%

20%

OFI Crete

44%

33%

18%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.19 goals and OFI Crete to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.19 goals and OFI Crete to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and the home team Volos NFC to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.92

0-1

2.46

1

4.22

2-3

2.29

2

4.33

4+

6.29

3

4.88

Ov 1.5

1.68

4

9.26

Un 1.5

2.46

5

23.26

Ov 2.5

2.75

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.57

Gg

2.90

Ov 3.5

6.29

NoG

1.52

Un 3.5

1.19

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.72