2021 03 20 France’s LNB Pro A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Pau-Lacq-Orthez vs Roanne at 20 March 2021
Cholet vs Monaco at 20 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Pau-Lacq-Orthez vs Roanne at 20 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pau-Lacq-Orthez and Roanne for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Pau-Lacq-Orthez

1.5

2.14

Roanne

2.6

1.88

Pau-Lacq-Orthez HC

-4.5

2.00

Roanne HC

+4.5

-2.00

Point Line

164.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Pau-Lacq-Orthez are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 16

A

JL Bourg

L

58

88

3

11

L 10

59

80

Mar 13

H

Orleans Loiret

L

72

101

3

10

L 9

72

88

Mar 6

A

Monaco

L

95

102

3

9

L 8

107

99

Feb 6

A

Limoges

L

87

96

3

8

L 7

89

102

Jan 30

H

Chalons-Reims

L

86

97

3

7

L 6

80

97

Jan 16

H

JL Bourg

L

76

83

3

6

L 5

77

75

Dec 19

A

Strasbourg

L

71

94

3

5

L 4

73

91

Dec 12

A

Orleans Loiret

L

75

85

3

4

L 3

75

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Roanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 16

A

Nanterre

W

79

74

4

9

W 1

79

74

Mar 13

H

BCM Gravelines

L

76

89

3

9

L 4

76

92

Mar 9

A

Orleans Loiret

L

100

108

3

8

L 3

100

94

Mar 6

A

Boulazac

L

72

82

3

7

L 2

66

88

Feb 5

A

Le Mans

L

84

97

3

6

L 1

81

89

Jan 30

H

Paris Levallois

W

80

67

3

5

W 1

88

68

Jan 16

H

Strasbourg

L

78

82

2

5

L 2

80

79

Dec 20

H

Dijon

L

81

91

2

4

L 1

88

92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Pau-Lacq-Orthez and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Roanne.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Roanne and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Pau-Lacq-Orthez.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Pau-Lacq-Orthez (in the first graph) and by Roanne in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Pau-Lacq-Orthez will expected to score 83 points and the Roanne 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Pau-Lacq-Orthez

Roanne

FG%

0.55

0.53

ASS

16.10

15.50

DRB

21.60

19.60

AST-TO

0.99

0.97

TRB

28.20

28.80

FTM

13.10

14.80

BL

1.50

2.80

FTA

16.90

22.40

PF-Fewer

21.20

21.30

ST

7.60

8.50

TO-Fewer

16.20

15.90

Ftper

0.78

0.66

ORBper

0.31

0.47

ORB

6.60

9.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Cholet vs Monaco at 20 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cholet and Monaco for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Cholet

3.75

3.09

Monaco

1.27

1.48

Cholet HC

+7.5

5.50

Monaco HC

-7.5

-5.50

Point Line

156.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cholet are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 6

A

Elan Chalon

L

79

84

3

7

L 3

78

92

Feb 1

A

Strasbourg

L

72

75

3

6

L 2

74

72

Jan 16

A

BCM Gravelines

L

96

100

3

5

L 1

95

104

Dec 19

A

Nanterre

W

80

76

3

4

W 2

80

76

Dec 12

H

Dijon

W

83

73

2

4

W 1

91

74

Oct 16

A

Roanne

L

88

96

1

4

L 3

83

100

Oct 11

H

ASVEL

L

73

82

1

3

L 2

74

75

Oct 2

A

Paris Levallois

L

68

72

1

2

L 1

74

73

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 12

A

Le Portel

W

81

71

10

1

W 10

79

77

Mar 6

H

Elan Bearnais

W

102

95

9

1

W 9

94

96

Feb 12

A

Orleans Loiret

W

86

85

8

1

W 8

86

74

Jan 30

H

Le Portel

W

82

60

7

1

W 7

80

65

Dec 26

A

Boulazac

W

77

71

6

1

W 6

71

76

Dec 6

A

Elan Bearnais

W

90

86

5

1

W 5

83

87

Nov 21

H

Limoges

W

86

59

4

1

W 4

88

62

Nov 14

H

Dijon

W

70

62

3

1

W 3

76

63

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cholet and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cholet.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Cholet (in the first graph) and by Monaco in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Cholet will expected to score 77 points and the Monaco 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Cholet

Monaco

FG%

0.53

0.52

ASS

17.70

16.60

DRB

22.00

21.60

AST-TO

1.17

1.33

TRB

31.50

32.90

FTM

12.70

17.30

BL

1.80

2.60

FTA

19.00

24.00

PF-Fewer

20.10

21.80

ST

8.50

10.90

TO-Fewer

15.10

12.50

Ftper

0.67

0.72

ORBper

0.43

0.52

ORB

9.50

11.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *