2021 03 20 German BBL



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Mitteldeutscher vs Brose Bamberg at 20 March 2021
Ulm vs Riesen Ludwigsburg at 20 March 2021
Skyliners Frankfurt vs Alba Berlin at 21 March 2021
Bayreuth vs Niners Chemnitz at 21 March 2021
Crailsheim Merlins vs Bayern Munich at 21 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Mitteldeutscher vs Brose Bamberg at 20 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mitteldeutscher and Brose Bamberg for German BBL, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Mitteldeutscher

3.35

2.38

Brose Bamberg

1.33

1.73

Mitteldeutscher HC

+6.5

3.00

Brose Bamberg HC

-6.5

-3.00

Point Line

173.5

170.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mitteldeutscher are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 16

H

ALBA Berlin

L

82

96

7

16

92

94

Mar 13

A

Hamburg Towers

L

78

105

7

15

83

104

Mar 9

H

s.Oliver Baskets

W

85

73

7

14

83

77

Mar 6

H

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

L

91

93

6

14

85

91

Mar 3

H

Giessen 46ers

W

102

81

6

12

89

81

Feb 27

A

Ratiopharm Ulm

L

73

102

5

12

78

98

Feb 14

A

Telekom Baskets Bonn

L

66

83

5

11

66

85

Feb 6

H

Telekom Baskets Bonn

L

97

103

5

11

97

106

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brose Bamberg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 13

A

Telekom Baskets Bonn

W

86

82

11

11

86

84

Feb 28

H

Fraport Skyliners

W

78

62

10

11

80

67

Feb 14

H

ALBA Berlin

W

76

67

9

11

85

66

Feb 12

A

BV Chemnitz 99

L

82

85

8

11

77

89

Feb 9

A

Fraport Skyliners

W

86

76

8

10

89

82

Feb 7

H

Bayern Munich

L

92

93

7

10

99

88

Feb 3

H

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

95

80

7

9

88

80

Jan 30

A

BG Goettingen

L

80

87

6

9

73

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mitteldeutscher and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brose Bamberg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brose Bamberg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mitteldeutscher.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Mitteldeutscher (in the first graph) and by Brose Bamberg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Mitteldeutscher will expected to score 83 points and the Brose Bamberg 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Mitteldeutscher

Brose Bamberg

FG%

0.53

0.56

ASS

17.70

19.70

DRB

21.30

22.30

AST-TO

1.16

1.37

TRB

31.40

32.00

FTM

15.50

13.60

BL

3.00

2.90

FTA

19.40

17.00

PF-Fewer

22.50

19.20

ST

6.70

6.50

TO-Fewer

15.30

14.40

Ftper

0.80

0.80

ORBper

0.47

0.43

ORB

10.10

9.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Ulm vs Riesen Ludwigsburg at 20 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ulm and Riesen Ludwigsburg for German BBL, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Ulm

2.2

2.17

Riesen Ludwigsburg

1.67

1.85

Ulm HC

+2.5

2.00

Riesen Ludwigsburg HC

-2.5

-2.00

Point Line

163.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ulm are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 13

A

SC Rasta Vechta

L

77

92

14

9

74

97

Mar 7

H

ALBA Berlin

L

76

84

14

8

85

82

Mar 3

H

Hamburg Towers

W

89

76

14

7

94

76

Feb 27

H

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

102

73

13

7

95

73

Feb 14

A

Fraport Skyliners

W

87

68

12

7

90

73

Feb 12

H

BG Goettingen

W

93

64

11

7

85

66

Feb 9

H

Bayern Munich

L

77

81

10

7

83

77

Feb 7

A

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

L

92

94

10

6

86

92

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Riesen Ludwigsburg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

A

HARKO Merlins Crailsheim

L

58

68

20

2

59

65

Mar 9

H

BV Chemnitz 99

W

96

60

20

1

90

63

Mar 6

H

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

W

98

87

19

1

97

78

Feb 28

A

Hamburg Towers

W

73

67

18

1

77

66

Feb 12

A

SC Rasta Vechta

W

84

66

17

1

81

70

Feb 10

H

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

W

81

74

16

1

76

73

Feb 7

A

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

W

89

75

15

1

88

67

Jan 30

H

Giessen 46ers

W

99

85

14

1

86

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ulm and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Riesen Ludwigsburg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Riesen Ludwigsburg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ulm.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ulm (in the first graph) and by Riesen Ludwigsburg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ulm will expected to score 81 points and the Riesen Ludwigsburg 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Ulm

Riesen Ludwigsburg

FG%

0.58

0.54

ASS

17.90

16.20

DRB

21.70

21.10

AST-TO

1.38

1.51

TRB

28.30

31.00

FTM

21.50

15.60

BL

2.30

2.50

FTA

25.10

21.00

PF-Fewer

20.20

19.70

ST

6.90

8.10

TO-Fewer

13.00

10.70

Ftper

0.86

0.74

ORBper

0.30

0.47

ORB

6.60

9.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Skyliners Frankfurt vs Alba Berlin at 21 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Skyliners Frankfurt and Alba Berlin for German BBL, which will take place on 21 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Skyliners Frankfurt

6.75

7.15

Alba Berlin

1.11

1.16

Skyliners Frankfurt HC

+12.5

10.00

Alba Berlin HC

-12.5

-10.00

Point Line

164.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Skyliners Frankfurt are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 13

H

Giessen 46ers

W

82

79

10

13

71

79

Mar 7

A

BG Goettingen

W

93

89

9

13

85

92

Mar 4

H

SC Rasta Vechta

W

84

75

8

13

81

79

Feb 28

A

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

62

78

7

13

65

79

Feb 14

H

Ratiopharm Ulm

L

68

87

7

12

72

84

Feb 12

A

Bayern Munich

L

58

84

7

11

62

80

Feb 9

H

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

76

86

7

10

79

88

Feb 6

A

SC Rasta Vechta

W

96

72

7

9

93

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 16

A

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

96

82

19

3

89

82

Mar 14

H

BG Goettingen

W

89

58

18

3

81

60

Mar 9

H

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

L

81

89

17

3

80

80

Mar 7

A

Ratiopharm Ulm

W

84

76

17

2

89

73

Feb 28

H

HARKO Merlins Crailsheim

W

100

62

16

2

102

60

Feb 14

A

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

67

76

15

2

70

77

Feb 12

H

Medi Bayreuth

W

80

68

15

1

78

69

Feb 9

A

HARKO Merlins Crailsheim

W

101

77

14

1

103

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Skyliners Frankfurt and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Skyliners Frankfurt.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Skyliners Frankfurt (in the first graph) and by Alba Berlin in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Skyliners Frankfurt will expected to score 76 points and the Alba Berlin 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Skyliners Frankfurt

Alba Berlin

FG%

0.53

0.56

ASS

16.50

22.00

DRB

21.80

24.50

AST-TO

1.14

1.73

TRB

29.30

34.20

FTM

15.90

12.40

BL

1.30

3.00

FTA

20.50

15.60

PF-Fewer

19.80

16.80

ST

6.90

7.80

TO-Fewer

14.50

12.70

Ftper

0.78

0.80

ORBper

0.34

0.40

ORB

7.50

9.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bayreuth vs Niners Chemnitz at 21 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bayreuth and Niners Chemnitz for German BBL, which will take place on 21 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bayreuth

1.24

1.33

Niners Chemnitz

4.15

4.00

Bayreuth HC

-8.5

-7.00

Niners Chemnitz HC

+8.5

7.00

Point Line

172.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayreuth are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 15

A

s.Oliver Baskets

W

90

75

8

14

88

79

Mar 2

A

Telekom Baskets Bonn

W

91

76

7

14

91

78

Feb 27

A

Giessen 46ers

L

92

97

6

14

80

97

Feb 14

H

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

L

82

91

6

13

81

81

Feb 12

A

ALBA Berlin

L

68

80

6

12

76

78

Feb 10

H

BG Goettingen

L

80

82

6

11

73

85

Feb 5

A

Hamburg Towers

W

95

92

6

10

101

91

Jan 30

A

BV Chemnitz 99

W

83

61

5

10

78

64

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Niners Chemnitz are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 19

H

Hamburg Towers

L

0

0

7

12

0

0

Mar 14

A

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

L

77

93

7

13

72

91

Mar 9

A

MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg

L

60

96

7

12

66

92

Feb 14

H

Bayern Munich

W

85

83

7

11

91

79

Feb 12

H

Brose Baskets Bamberg

W

85

82

6

11

89

83

Feb 10

H

SC Rasta Vechta

W

89

77

5

11

86

82

Feb 7

A

ALBA Berlin

L

65

83

4

11

72

81

Jan 30

H

Medi Bayreuth

L

61

83

4

10

60

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayreuth and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Niners Chemnitz.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Niners Chemnitz and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayreuth.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bayreuth (in the first graph) and by Niners Chemnitz in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bayreuth will expected to score 83 points and the Niners Chemnitz 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bayreuth

Niners Chemnitz

FG%

0.57

0.56

ASS

19.10

17.20

DRB

21.90

20.80

AST-TO

1.36

1.00

TRB

28.50

28.40

FTM

15.20

14.50

BL

2.20

2.60

FTA

19.50

18.10

PF-Fewer

17.90

22.80

ST

6.60

6.20

TO-Fewer

14.00

17.20

Ftper

0.78

0.80

ORBper

0.30

0.37

ORB

6.60

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Crailsheim Merlins vs Bayern Munich at 21 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crailsheim Merlins and Bayern Munich for German BBL, which will take place on 21 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Crailsheim Merlins

4.15

3.21

Bayern Munich

1.24

1.45

Crailsheim Merlins HC

+8.5

5.50

Bayern Munich HC

-8.5

-5.50

Point Line

162.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Crailsheim Merlins are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

H

MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg

W

68

58

17

5

74

56

Mar 3

H

s.Oliver Baskets

L

84

94

16

5

82

99

Feb 28

A

ALBA Berlin

L

62

100

16

4

69

98

Feb 14

A

BG Goettingen

W

109