BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Mitteldeutscher vs Brose Bamberg at 20 March 2021
Ulm vs Riesen Ludwigsburg at 20 March 2021
Skyliners Frankfurt vs Alba Berlin at 21 March 2021
Bayreuth vs Niners Chemnitz at 21 March 2021
Crailsheim Merlins vs Bayern Munich at 21 March 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
Mitteldeutscher vs Brose Bamberg at 20 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Mitteldeutscher and Brose Bamberg for German BBL, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Mitteldeutscher |
3.35 |
2.38 |
|
Brose Bamberg |
1.33 |
1.73 |
|
Mitteldeutscher HC |
+6.5 |
3.00 |
|
Brose Bamberg HC |
-6.5 |
-3.00 |
|
Point Line |
173.5 |
170.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mitteldeutscher are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 16 |
H |
ALBA Berlin |
L |
82 |
96 |
7 |
16 |
|
92 |
94 |
|
Mar 13 |
A |
Hamburg Towers |
L |
78 |
105 |
7 |
15 |
|
83 |
104 |
|
Mar 9 |
H |
s.Oliver Baskets |
W |
85 |
73 |
7 |
14 |
|
83 |
77 |
|
Mar 6 |
H |
Basketball Lowen Braunschweig |
L |
91 |
93 |
6 |
14 |
|
85 |
91 |
|
Mar 3 |
H |
Giessen 46ers |
W |
102 |
81 |
6 |
12 |
|
89 |
81 |
|
Feb 27 |
A |
Ratiopharm Ulm |
L |
73 |
102 |
5 |
12 |
|
78 |
98 |
|
Feb 14 |
A |
Telekom Baskets Bonn |
L |
66 |
83 |
5 |
11 |
|
66 |
85 |
|
Feb 6 |
H |
Telekom Baskets Bonn |
L |
97 |
103 |
5 |
11 |
|
97 |
106 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brose Bamberg are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 13 |
A |
Telekom Baskets Bonn |
W |
86 |
82 |
11 |
11 |
|
86 |
84 |
|
Feb 28 |
H |
Fraport Skyliners |
W |
78 |
62 |
10 |
11 |
|
80 |
67 |
|
Feb 14 |
H |
ALBA Berlin |
W |
76 |
67 |
9 |
11 |
|
85 |
66 |
|
Feb 12 |
A |
BV Chemnitz 99 |
L |
82 |
85 |
8 |
11 |
|
77 |
89 |
|
Feb 9 |
A |
Fraport Skyliners |
W |
86 |
76 |
8 |
10 |
|
89 |
82 |
|
Feb 7 |
H |
Bayern Munich |
L |
92 |
93 |
7 |
10 |
|
99 |
88 |
|
Feb 3 |
H |
Mitteldeutscher BC |
W |
95 |
80 |
7 |
9 |
|
88 |
80 |
|
Jan 30 |
A |
BG Goettingen |
L |
80 |
87 |
6 |
9 |
|
73 |
90 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mitteldeutscher and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brose Bamberg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brose Bamberg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mitteldeutscher.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Mitteldeutscher (in the first graph) and by Brose Bamberg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Mitteldeutscher will expected to score 83 points and the Brose Bamberg 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Mitteldeutscher |
Brose Bamberg |
|
FG% |
0.53 |
0.56 |
|
ASS |
17.70 |
19.70 |
|
DRB |
21.30 |
22.30 |
|
AST-TO |
1.16 |
1.37 |
|
TRB |
31.40 |
32.00 |
|
FTM |
15.50 |
13.60 |
|
BL |
3.00 |
2.90 |
|
FTA |
19.40 |
17.00 |
|
PF-Fewer |
22.50 |
19.20 |
|
ST |
6.70 |
6.50 |
|
TO-Fewer |
15.30 |
14.40 |
|
Ftper |
0.80 |
0.80 |
|
ORBper |
0.47 |
0.43 |
|
ORB |
10.10 |
9.70 |
Go to Top
Ulm vs Riesen Ludwigsburg at 20 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Ulm and Riesen Ludwigsburg for German BBL, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Ulm |
2.2 |
2.17 |
|
Riesen Ludwigsburg |
1.67 |
1.85 |
|
Ulm HC |
+2.5 |
2.00 |
|
Riesen Ludwigsburg HC |
-2.5 |
-2.00 |
|
Point Line |
163.5 |
163.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ulm are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 13 |
A |
SC Rasta Vechta |
L |
77 |
92 |
14 |
9 |
|
74 |
97 |
|
Mar 7 |
H |
ALBA Berlin |
L |
76 |
84 |
14 |
8 |
|
85 |
82 |
|
Mar 3 |
H |
Hamburg Towers |
W |
89 |
76 |
14 |
7 |
|
94 |
76 |
|
Feb 27 |
H |
Mitteldeutscher BC |
W |
102 |
73 |
13 |
7 |
|
95 |
73 |
|
Feb 14 |
A |
Fraport Skyliners |
W |
87 |
68 |
12 |
7 |
|
90 |
73 |
|
Feb 12 |
H |
BG Goettingen |
W |
93 |
64 |
11 |
7 |
|
85 |
66 |
|
Feb 9 |
H |
Bayern Munich |
L |
77 |
81 |
10 |
7 |
|
83 |
77 |
|
Feb 7 |
A |
Basketball Lowen Braunschweig |
L |
92 |
94 |
10 |
6 |
|
86 |
92 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Riesen Ludwigsburg are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 14 |
A |
HARKO Merlins Crailsheim |
L |
58 |
68 |
20 |
2 |
|
59 |
65 |
|
Mar 9 |
H |
BV Chemnitz 99 |
W |
96 |
60 |
20 |
1 |
|
90 |
63 |
|
Mar 6 |
H |
EWE Baskets Oldenburg |
W |
98 |
87 |
19 |
1 |
|
97 |
78 |
|
Feb 28 |
A |
Hamburg Towers |
W |
73 |
67 |
18 |
1 |
|
77 |
66 |
|
Feb 12 |
A |
SC Rasta Vechta |
W |
84 |
66 |
17 |
1 |
|
81 |
70 |
|
Feb 10 |
H |
Basketball Lowen Braunschweig |
W |
81 |
74 |
16 |
1 |
|
76 |
73 |
|
Feb 7 |
A |
EWE Baskets Oldenburg |
W |
89 |
75 |
15 |
1 |
|
88 |
67 |
|
Jan 30 |
H |
Giessen 46ers |
W |
99 |
85 |
14 |
1 |
|
86 |
85 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ulm and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Riesen Ludwigsburg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Riesen Ludwigsburg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ulm.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ulm (in the first graph) and by Riesen Ludwigsburg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ulm will expected to score 81 points and the Riesen Ludwigsburg 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Ulm |
Riesen Ludwigsburg |
|
FG% |
0.58 |
0.54 |
|
ASS |
17.90 |
16.20 |
|
DRB |
21.70 |
21.10 |
|
AST-TO |
1.38 |
1.51 |
|
TRB |
28.30 |
31.00 |
|
FTM |
21.50 |
15.60 |
|
BL |
2.30 |
2.50 |
|
FTA |
25.10 |
21.00 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.20 |
19.70 |
|
ST |
6.90 |
8.10 |
|
TO-Fewer |
13.00 |
10.70 |
|
Ftper |
0.86 |
0.74 |
|
ORBper |
0.30 |
0.47 |
|
ORB |
6.60 |
9.90 |
Go to Top
Skyliners Frankfurt vs Alba Berlin at 21 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Skyliners Frankfurt and Alba Berlin for German BBL, which will take place on 21 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Skyliners Frankfurt |
6.75 |
7.15 |
|
Alba Berlin |
1.11 |
1.16 |
|
Skyliners Frankfurt HC |
+12.5 |
10.00 |
|
Alba Berlin HC |
-12.5 |
-10.00 |
|
Point Line |
164.5 |
159.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Skyliners Frankfurt are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 13 |
H |
Giessen 46ers |
W |
82 |
79 |
10 |
13 |
|
71 |
79 |
|
Mar 7 |
A |
BG Goettingen |
W |
93 |
89 |
9 |
13 |
|
85 |
92 |
|
Mar 4 |
H |
SC Rasta Vechta |
W |
84 |
75 |
8 |
13 |
|
81 |
79 |
|
Feb 28 |
A |
Brose Baskets Bamberg |
L |
62 |
78 |
7 |
13 |
|
65 |
79 |
|
Feb 14 |
H |
Ratiopharm Ulm |
L |
68 |
87 |
7 |
12 |
|
72 |
84 |
|
Feb 12 |
A |
Bayern Munich |
L |
58 |
84 |
7 |
11 |
|
62 |
80 |
|
Feb 9 |
H |
Brose Baskets Bamberg |
L |
76 |
86 |
7 |
10 |
|
79 |
88 |
|
Feb 6 |
A |
SC Rasta Vechta |
W |
96 |
72 |
7 |
9 |
|
93 |
76 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 16 |
A |
Mitteldeutscher BC |
W |
96 |
82 |
19 |
3 |
|
89 |
82 |
|
Mar 14 |
H |
BG Goettingen |
W |
89 |
58 |
18 |
3 |
|
81 |
60 |
|
Mar 9 |
H |
EWE Baskets Oldenburg |
L |
81 |
89 |
17 |
3 |
|
80 |
80 |
|
Mar 7 |
A |
Ratiopharm Ulm |
W |
84 |
76 |
17 |
2 |
|
89 |
73 |
|
Feb 28 |
H |
HARKO Merlins Crailsheim |
W |
100 |
62 |
16 |
2 |
|
102 |
60 |
|
Feb 14 |
A |
Brose Baskets Bamberg |
L |
67 |
76 |
15 |
2 |
|
70 |
77 |
|
Feb 12 |
H |
Medi Bayreuth |
W |
80 |
68 |
15 |
1 |
|
78 |
69 |
|
Feb 9 |
A |
HARKO Merlins Crailsheim |
W |
101 |
77 |
14 |
1 |
|
103 |
74 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Skyliners Frankfurt and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Skyliners Frankfurt.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Skyliners Frankfurt (in the first graph) and by Alba Berlin in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Skyliners Frankfurt will expected to score 76 points and the Alba Berlin 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Skyliners Frankfurt |
Alba Berlin |
|
FG% |
0.53 |
0.56 |
|
ASS |
16.50 |
22.00 |
|
DRB |
21.80 |
24.50 |
|
AST-TO |
1.14 |
1.73 |
|
TRB |
29.30 |
34.20 |
|
FTM |
15.90 |
12.40 |
|
BL |
1.30 |
3.00 |
|
FTA |
20.50 |
15.60 |
|
PF-Fewer |
19.80 |
16.80 |
|
ST |
6.90 |
7.80 |
|
TO-Fewer |
14.50 |
12.70 |
|
Ftper |
0.78 |
0.80 |
|
ORBper |
0.34 |
0.40 |
|
ORB |
7.50 |
9.70 |
Go to Top
Bayreuth vs Niners Chemnitz at 21 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Bayreuth and Niners Chemnitz for German BBL, which will take place on 21 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Bayreuth |
1.24 |
1.33 |
|
Niners Chemnitz |
4.15 |
4.00 |
|
Bayreuth HC |
-8.5 |
-7.00 |
|
Niners Chemnitz HC |
+8.5 |
7.00 |
|
Point Line |
172.5 |
166.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayreuth are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 15 |
A |
s.Oliver Baskets |
W |
90 |
75 |
8 |
14 |
|
88 |
79 |
|
Mar 2 |
A |
Telekom Baskets Bonn |
W |
91 |
76 |
7 |
14 |
|
91 |
78 |
|
Feb 27 |
A |
Giessen 46ers |
L |
92 |
97 |
6 |
14 |
|
80 |
97 |
|
Feb 14 |
H |
EWE Baskets Oldenburg |
L |
82 |
91 |
6 |
13 |
|
81 |
81 |
|
Feb 12 |
A |
ALBA Berlin |
L |
68 |
80 |
6 |
12 |
|
76 |
78 |
|
Feb 10 |
H |
BG Goettingen |
L |
80 |
82 |
6 |
11 |
|
73 |
85 |
|
Feb 5 |
A |
Hamburg Towers |
W |
95 |
92 |
6 |
10 |
|
101 |
91 |
|
Jan 30 |
A |
BV Chemnitz 99 |
W |
83 |
61 |
5 |
10 |
|
78 |
64 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Niners Chemnitz are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Apr 19 |
H |
Hamburg Towers |
L |
0 |
0 |
7 |
12 |
|
0 |
0 |
|
Mar 14 |
A |
Basketball Lowen Braunschweig |
L |
77 |
93 |
7 |
13 |
|
72 |
91 |
|
Mar 9 |
A |
MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg |
L |
60 |
96 |
7 |
12 |
|
66 |
92 |
|
Feb 14 |
H |
Bayern Munich |
W |
85 |
83 |
7 |
11 |
|
91 |
79 |
|
Feb 12 |
H |
Brose Baskets Bamberg |
W |
85 |
82 |
6 |
11 |
|
89 |
83 |
|
Feb 10 |
H |
SC Rasta Vechta |
W |
89 |
77 |
5 |
11 |
|
86 |
82 |
|
Feb 7 |
A |
ALBA Berlin |
L |
65 |
83 |
4 |
11 |
|
72 |
81 |
|
Jan 30 |
H |
Medi Bayreuth |
L |
61 |
83 |
4 |
10 |
|
60 |
84 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayreuth and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Niners Chemnitz.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Niners Chemnitz and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayreuth.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bayreuth (in the first graph) and by Niners Chemnitz in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bayreuth will expected to score 83 points and the Niners Chemnitz 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Bayreuth |
Niners Chemnitz |
|
FG% |
0.57 |
0.56 |
|
ASS |
19.10 |
17.20 |
|
DRB |
21.90 |
20.80 |
|
AST-TO |
1.36 |
1.00 |
|
TRB |
28.50 |
28.40 |
|
FTM |
15.20 |
14.50 |
|
BL |
2.20 |
2.60 |
|
FTA |
19.50 |
18.10 |
|
PF-Fewer |
17.90 |
22.80 |
|
ST |
6.60 |
6.20 |
|
TO-Fewer |
14.00 |
17.20 |
|
Ftper |
0.78 |
0.80 |
|
ORBper |
0.30 |
0.37 |
|
ORB |
6.60 |
7.60 |
Go to Top
Crailsheim Merlins vs Bayern Munich at 21 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Crailsheim Merlins and Bayern Munich for German BBL, which will take place on 21 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Crailsheim Merlins |
4.15 |
3.21 |
|
Bayern Munich |
1.24 |
1.45 |
|
Crailsheim Merlins HC |
+8.5 |
5.50 |
|
Bayern Munich HC |
-8.5 |
-5.50 |
|
Point Line |
162.5 |
166.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Crailsheim Merlins are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 14 |
H |
MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg |
W |
68 |
58 |
17 |
5 |
|
74 |
56 |
|
Mar 3 |
H |
s.Oliver Baskets |
L |
84 |
94 |
16 |
5 |
|
82 |
99 |
|
Feb 28 |
A |
ALBA Berlin |
L |
62 |
100 |
16 |
4 |
|
69 |
98 |
|
Feb 14 |
A |
BG Goettingen |
W |
109 |