2021 03 20 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Aris vs PAOK at 20 March 2021
AEK Athens vs Iraklis at 20 March 2021
Mesologgi BC vs GS Lavrio at 20 March 2021
Ionikos Nikaias vs Larissa BC at 21 March 2021
Peristeri vs Panathinaikos at 22 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Aris vs PAOK at 20 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and PAOK for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aris

2.16

1.75

PAOK

1.85

2.33

Aris HC

+1.5

-2.50

PAOK HC

-1.5

2.50

Point Line

153.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 10

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

76

54

6

10

W 2

77

58

Mar 6

H

Larisa

W

70

52

5

10

W 1

67

54

Feb 28

A

Panathinaikos

L

72

94

4

10

L 2

77

81

Feb 6

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

89

94

4

9

L 1

91

89

Jan 23

H

Messolonghi

W

77

48

4

8

W 1

72

51

Jan 17

H

Panathinaikos

L

75

93

3

8

L 5

80

80

Jan 9

H

Peristeri

L

71

84

3

7

L 4

72

89

Jan 3

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

64

68

3

6

L 3

60

68

The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 13

H

AEK Athens

L

85

87

8

8

L 1

92

82

Mar 6

H

Promitheas Patras

W

81

78

8

7

W 2

81

82

Feb 28

A

Larisa

W

91

88

7

7

W 1

88

91

Jan 30

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

77

84

6

7

L 2

79

79

Jan 27

A

AEK Athens

L

56

76

6

6

L 1

61

72

Jan 23

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

79

72

6

5

W 2

80

77

Jan 9

H

Messolonghi

W

96

87

5

5

W 1

90

92

Jan 3

A

Peristeri

L

67

76

4

5

L 1

68

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aris (in the first graph) and by PAOK in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aris will expected to score 78 points and the PAOK 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aris

PAOK

FG%

0.52

0.54

ASS

13.80

14.90

DRB

21.90

22.30

AST-TO

1.02

1.07

TRB

31.30

30.00

FTM

16.50

14.70

BL

1.80

1.80

FTA

22.40

19.40

PF-Fewer

21.80

23.10

ST

7.90

7.30

TO-Fewer

13.50

13.90

Ftper

0.74

0.76

ORBper

0.43

0.35

ORB

9.40

7.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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AEK Athens vs Iraklis at 20 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK Athens and Iraklis for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

AEK Athens

1.22

1.18

Iraklis

4.35

6.66

AEK Athens HC

-8.5

-9.50

Iraklis HC

+8.5

9.50

Point Line

152.5

147.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 13

A

P.A.O.K.

W

87

85

12

4

W 3

83

83

Mar 6

H

Messolonghi

W

98

76

11

4

W 2

92

80

Feb 6

H

Peristeri

W

91

59

10

4

W 1

92

62

Jan 30

A

Larisa

L

75

76

9

4

L 1

72

78

Jan 27

H

P.A.O.K.

W

76

56

9

3

W 2

72

55

Jan 23

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

81

74

8

3

W 1

76

74

Jan 16

H

Promitheas Patras

L

75

82

7

3

L 2

75

87

Jan 10

A

Panathinaikos

L

75

80

7

2

L 1

80

69

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Iraklis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

H

Messolonghi

W

100

78

7

10

W 1

94

82

Mar 10

H

Aris

L

54

76

6

10

L 1

54

78

Mar 6

A

Peristeri

W

79

70

6

9

W 1

80

74

Feb 28

H

Ionikos Nikaias

L

75

78

5

9

L 4

70

78

Feb 6

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

61

84

5

8

L 3

61

83

Jan 23

A

P.A.O.K.

L

72

79

5

7

L 2

69

77

Jan 10

A

Promitheas Patras

L

61

85

5

6

L 1

61

90

Jan 2

H

Larisa

W

73

69

5

5

W 1

70

71

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Iraklis.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Iraklis and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by AEK Athens (in the first graph) and by Iraklis in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, AEK Athens will expected to score 78 points and the Iraklis 71 points. The total points line estimated to be at 149.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

AEK Athens

Iraklis

FG%

0.53

0.51

ASS

17.50

15.20

DRB

22.20

24.60

AST-TO

1.40

1.09

TRB

32.60

32.10

FTM

16.20

13.50

BL

3.10

2.20

FTA

21.40

19.40

PF-Fewer

22.50

21.40

ST

6.70

5.40

TO-Fewer

12.50

14.00

Ftper

0.76

0.70

ORBper

0.47

0.30

ORB

10.40

7.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Mesologgi BC vs GS Lavrio at 20 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mesologgi BC and GS Lavrio for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Mesologgi BC

4.35

4.66

GS Lavrio

1.22

1.27

Mesologgi BC HC

+8.5

8.00

GS Lavrio HC

-8.5

-8.00

Point Line

157.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mesologgi BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

A

Iraklis B.C.

L

78

100

4

13

L 4

80

107

Mar 6

A

AEK Athens

L

76

98

4

12

L 3

82

92

Feb 27

H

Peristeri

L

63

70

4

11

L 2

64

74

Feb 6

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

85

100

4

10

L 1

80

100

Jan 30

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

87

77

4

9

W 1

87

76

Jan 23

A

Aris

L

48

77

3

9

L 9

48

79

Jan 9

A

P.A.O.K.

L

87

96

3

8

L 8

83

94

Jan 3

H

Promitheas Patras

L

82

88

3

7

L 7

82

93

The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

H

Peristeri

W

88

71

13

4

W 5

90

75

Mar 10

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

83

77

12

4

W 4

83

76

Mar 7

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

89

88

11

4

W 3

83

88

Feb 6

A

Aris

W

94

89

10

4

W 2

93

91

Jan 30

H

P.A.O.K.

W

84

77

9

4

W 1

80

75

Jan 23

A

Promitheas Patras

L

88

90

8

4

L 1

88

95

Jan 20

H

Promitheas Patras

W

75

72

8

3

W 8

75

76

Jan 11

A

Larisa

W

66

58

7

3

W 7

64

60

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mesologgi BC and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mesologgi BC.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Mesologgi BC (in the first graph) and by GS Lavrio in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Mesologgi BC will expected to score 75 points and the GS Lavrio 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Mesologgi BC

GS Lavrio

FG%

0.52

0.55

ASS

16.50

18.00

DRB

22.90

22.20

AST-TO

1.14

1.42

TRB

29.10

29.80

FTM

13.70

15.10

BL

1.60

2.40

FTA

19.40

21.40

PF-Fewer

20.10

22.20

ST

5.60

7.60

TO-Fewer

14.50

12.70

Ftper

0.71

0.70

ORBper

0.27

0.34

ORB

6.20

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Ionikos Nikaias vs Larissa BC at 21 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ionikos Nikaias and Larissa BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 21 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Ionikos Nikaias

1.27

1.81

Larissa BC

3.75

2.24

Ionikos Nikaias HC

-8.5

-2.50

Larissa BC HC

+8.5

2.50

Point Line

158.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 13

A

Panathinaikos

L

74

98

6

11

L 2

79

85

Mar 7

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

88

89

6

10

L 1

90

84

Feb 28

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

78

75

6

9

W 2

80

80

Feb 6

H

Messolonghi

W

100

85

5

9

W 1

94

90

Jan 30

A

Peristeri

L

70

86

4

9

L 3

71

91

Jan 23

A

AEK Athens

L

74

81

4

8

L 2

80

76

Jan 9

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

74

94

4

7

L 1

74

93

Jan 3

H

Aris

W

68

64

4

6

W 1

68

65

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

82

73

5

12

W 1

82

72

Mar 6

A

Aris

L

52

70

4

12

L 3

52

72

Feb 28

H

P.A.O.K.

L

88

91

4

11

L 2

84

89

Feb 6

A

Promitheas Patras

L

63

81

4

10

L 1

63

86

Jan 30

H

AEK Athens

W

76

75

4

9

W 1

82

71

Jan 24

H

Panathinaikos

L

89

98

3

9

L 2

96

85

Jan 11

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

58

66

3

8

L 1

60

62

Jan 6

H

Promitheas Patras

W

85

81

3

7

W 1

85

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Larissa BC.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Larissa BC and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ionikos Nikaias (in the first graph) and by Larissa BC in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ionikos Nikaias will expected to score 79 points and the Larissa BC 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Ionikos Nikaias

Larissa BC

FG%

0.51

0.54

ASS

14.90

13.50

DRB

22.10

22.50

AST-TO

1.13

0.87

TRB

30.90

30.80

FTM

12.60

14.00

BL

1.60

1.70

FTA

16.70

18.40

PF-Fewer

20.60

22.10

ST

7.20

6.70

TO-Fewer

13.20

15.60

Ftper

0.75

0.76

ORBper

0.40

0.37

ORB

8.80

8.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Peristeri vs Panathinaikos at 22 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peristeri and Panathinaikos for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 22 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Peristeri

4.85

3.44

Panathinaikos

1.18

1.41

Peristeri HC

+10.5

6.00

Panathinaikos HC

-10.5

-6.00

Point Line

157.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

71

88

9

8

L 2

73

83

Mar 6

H

Iraklis B.C.

L

70

79

9

7

L 1

71

84

Feb 27

A

Messolonghi

W

70

63

9

6

W 1

66

66

Feb 6

A

AEK Athens

L

59

91

8

6