2021 03 20 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Aquila Basket Trento vs Brescia at 20 March 2021
Victoria Libertas Pesaro vs Virtus Bologna at 20 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Aquila Basket Trento vs Brescia at 20 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aquila Basket Trento and Brescia for Serie A, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aquila Basket Trento

1.67

2.17

Brescia

2.2

1.86

Aquila Basket Trento HC

-2.5

2.00

Brescia HC

+2.5

-2.00

Point Line

160.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aquila Basket Trento are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

W

61

60

7

13

W 1

66

55

Feb 28

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

87

95

6

13

L 8

81

90

Feb 7

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

70

81

6

12

L 7

70

80

Jan 31

H

Fortitudo Bologna

L

64

78

6

11

L 6

64

81

Jan 23

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

74

83

6

10

L 5

75

89

Jan 17

H

Universo Treviso

L

76

82

6

9

L 4

70

79

Jan 9

H

Virtus Bologna

L

85

92

6

8

L 3

90

87

Jan 3

A

Enel Brindisi

L

73

74

6

7

L 2

76

69

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brescia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

92

99

9

12

L 1

100

90

Feb 28

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

89

79

9

11

W 3

90

85

Feb 10

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

98

83

8

11

W 2

93

83

Feb 7

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

81

78

7

11

W 1

84

78

Jan 31

H

Universo Treviso

L

91

94

6

11

L 1

84

91

Jan 23

A

Virtus Bologna

W

90

89

6

10

W 1

95

84

Jan 10

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

88

98

5

10

L 3

88

97

Jan 3

H

Vanoli Cremona

L

85

89

5

9

L 2

80

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aquila Basket Trento and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brescia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brescia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aquila Basket Trento.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aquila Basket Trento (in the first graph) and by Brescia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aquila Basket Trento will expected to score 80 points and the Brescia 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aquila Basket Trento

Brescia

FG%

0.50

0.54

ASS

15.00

19.00

DRB

23.10

24.00

AST-TO

1.30

1.57

TRB

32.00

31.80

FTM

11.60

12.10

BL

1.90

1.60

FTA

16.40

14.40

PF-Fewer

20.30

20.90

ST

7.70

7.80

TO-Fewer

11.50

12.10

Ftper

0.71

0.84

ORBper

0.39

0.32

ORB

8.90

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Victoria Libertas Pesaro vs Virtus Bologna at 20 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Victoria Libertas Pesaro and Virtus Bologna for Serie A, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

4.15

4.05

Virtus Bologna

1.24

1.33

Victoria Libertas Pesaro HC

+8.5

7.00

Virtus Bologna HC

-8.5

-7.00

Point Line

164.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Victoria Libertas Pesaro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

68

81

10

11

L 2

65

81

Mar 7

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

78

100

10

10

L 1

73

94

Feb 7

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

81

70

10

9

W 1

83

74

Jan 31

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

65

78

9

9

L 1

69

78

Jan 24

H

Red October Cantu

W

107

83

9

8

W 1

106

84

Jan 17

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

74

99

8

8

L 1

72

87

Jan 10

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

98

88

8

7

W 1

96

86

Jan 3

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

93

97

7

7

L 2

101

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 13

A

Enel Brindisi

L

85

91

14

7

L 1

88

85

Mar 6

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

77

72

14

6

W 4

82

72

Feb 27

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

76

13

6

W 3

81

76

Feb 7

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

89

62

12

6

W 2

90

67

Jan 30

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

88

75

11

6

W 1

82

71

Jan 23

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

89

90

10

6

L 1

87

88

Jan 17

A

Red October Cantu

W

91

82

10

5

W 3

90

83

Jan 9

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

92

85

9

5

W 2

94

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Victoria Libertas Pesaro.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Victoria Libertas Pesaro (in the first graph) and by Virtus Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Victoria Libertas Pesaro will expected to score 79 points and the Virtus Bologna 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Victoria Libertas Pesaro

Virtus Bologna

FG%

0.53

0.55

ASS

16.10

22.50

DRB

24.10

26.10

AST-TO

1.49

1.64

TRB

34.10

34.90

FTM

12.60

13.50

BL

1.00

2.50

FTA

16.90

18.20

PF-Fewer

20.90

20.20

ST

6.10

7.70

TO-Fewer

10.80

13.70

Ftper

0.75

0.74

ORBper

0.41

0.34

ORB

10.00

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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