2021 03 20 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Tenerife vs Murcia at 20 March 2021
Obradoiro vs Unicaja Malaga at 20 March 2021
Zaragoza vs Estudiantes at 20 March 2021
Bilbao vs Baskonia at 21 March 2021
Valencia vs Barcelona at 21 March 2021
Andorra vs Manresa at 21 March 2021
Real Madrid vs Real Betis at 21 March 2021
Gran Canaria vs Gipuzkoa at 21 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Tenerife vs Murcia at 20 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Murcia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Tenerife

1.23

2.78

Murcia

4.3

1.56

Tenerife HC

-9.5

4.50

Murcia HC

+9.5

-4.50

Point Line

168.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

97

71

18

5

W 1

93

73

Feb 7

H

Baskonia

L

79

81

17

5

L 1

84

80

Jan 30

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

89

83

17

4

W 3

94

87

Jan 24

H

Manresa

W

85

70

16

4

W 2

82

69

Jan 16

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

108

87

15

4

W 1

105

91

Jan 10

A

Acunsa GBC

L

87

89

14

4

L 2

83

98

Jan 2

H

Real Madrid

L

85

92

14

3

L 1

92

88

Dec 29

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

90

64

14

2

W 2

87

65

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Murcia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

H

Real Madrid

L

58

74

8

15

L 7

63

70

Feb 27

A

Manresa

L

84

85

8

14

L 6

81

84

Feb 7

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

84

91

8

13

L 5

82

88

Feb 2

A

Real Madrid

L

87

98

8

12

L 4

94

93

Jan 31

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

63

92

8

11

L 3

70

86

Jan 26

H

Manresa

L

93

103

8

10

L 2

90

102

Jan 23

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

75

81

8

9

L 1

77

76

Dec 27

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

93

76

8

8

W 1

89

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Murcia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Murcia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tenerife (in the first graph) and by Murcia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tenerife will expected to score 86 points and the Murcia 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Tenerife

Murcia

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

16.20

15.20

DRB

19.60

21.50

AST-TO

1.22

1.02

TRB

28.90

31.00

FTM

13.00

18.80

BL

2.30

2.50

FTA

17.10

24.50

PF-Fewer

21.70

20.80

ST

6.70

6.10

TO-Fewer

13.30

14.90

Ftper

0.76

0.77

ORBper

0.47

0.44

ORB

9.30

9.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Obradoiro vs Unicaja Malaga at 20 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Obradoiro and Unicaja Malaga for Liga ACB, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Obradoiro

3.1

5.00

Unicaja Malaga

1.38

1.25

Obradoiro HC

+5.5

8.50

Unicaja Malaga HC

-5.5

-8.50

Point Line

163.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Obradoiro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 13

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

84

91

7

16

L 6

82

88

Mar 7

H

Baskonia

L

78

87

7

15

L 5

83

86

Mar 3

H

Movistar Estudiantes

L

87

91

7

14

L 4

84

93

Feb 28

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

71

97

7

13

L 3

74

89

Feb 9

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

71

90

7

12

L 2

75

95

Feb 6

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

70

83

7

11

L 1

65

84

Jan 30

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

80

72

7

10

W 1

75

74

Dec 27

A

UCAM Murcia

L

76

93

6

10

L 1

74

94

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 16

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

55

79

12

13

L 1

61

74

Mar 13

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

82

76

12

12

W 3

80

79

Feb 27

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

91

77

11

12

W 2

88

79

Feb 7

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

85

68

10

12

W 1

84

69

Jan 31

H

Valencia Basket

L

85

89

9

12

L 6

87

85

Jan 23

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

75

78

9

11

L 5

74

83

Jan 16

A

Manresa

L

83

90

9

10

L 4

80

89

Jan 10

H

Baskonia

L

79

91

9

9

L 3

84

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Obradoiro and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Obradoiro.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Obradoiro (in the first graph) and by Unicaja Malaga in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Obradoiro will expected to score 81 points and the Unicaja Malaga 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Obradoiro

Unicaja Malaga

FG%

0.55

0.55

ASS

15.30

16.80

DRB

20.30

22.90

AST-TO

1.11

1.19

TRB

28.70

32.80

FTM

13.20

14.00

BL

2.30

2.20

FTA

16.90

18.00

PF-Fewer

19.40

19.10

ST

6.00

6.20

TO-Fewer

13.80

14.10

Ftper

0.78

0.78

ORBper

0.41

0.43

ORB

8.40

9.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zaragoza vs Estudiantes at 20 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Estudiantes for Liga ACB, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zaragoza

1.37

1.64

Estudiantes

3.15

2.57

Zaragoza HC

-6.5

-3.50

Estudiantes HC

+6.5

3.50

Point Line

172.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 13

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

88

107

10

15

L 2

98

100

Mar 6

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

95

100

10

14

L 1

92

97

Feb 28

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

85

82

10

13

W 3

84

87

Feb 6

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

83

70

9

13

W 2

80

72

Feb 3

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

79

73

8

13

W 1

76

74

Jan 31

A

Baskonia

L

61

89

7

13

L 1

65

88

Jan 23

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

96

73

7

12

W 3

90

75

Jan 16

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

105

85

6

12

W 2

103

87

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Estudiantes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 17

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

83

90

7

17

L 1

81

87

Mar 14

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

95

89

7

16

W 1

90

92

Mar 6

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

94

97

6

16

L 1

92

101

Mar 3

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

91

87

6

15

W 1

87

90

Feb 27

A

Unicaja

L

77

91

5

15

L 7

77

88

Feb 10

A

Acunsa GBC

L

79

81

5

14

L 6

75

89

Feb 7

H

Real Madrid

L

65

79

5

13

L 5

71

75

Feb 3

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

73

79

5

12

L 4

68

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Estudiantes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Estudiantes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zaragoza (in the first graph) and by Estudiantes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zaragoza will expected to score 86 points and the Estudiantes 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zaragoza

Estudiantes

FG%

0.55

0.52

ASS

16.00

14.80

DRB

23.00

22.20

AST-TO

1.24

1.20

TRB

30.00

31.40

FTM

15.10

11.20

BL

2.50

3.20

FTA

20.60

14.80

PF-Fewer

21.10

23.50

ST

6.70

6.40

TO-Fewer

12.90

12.30

Ftper

0.73

0.75

ORBper

0.30

0.41

ORB

7.00

9.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bilbao vs Baskonia at 21 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bilbao and Baskonia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 21 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bilbao

3.85

2.81

Baskonia

1.26

1.55

Bilbao HC

+7.5

4.50

Baskonia HC

-7.5

-4.50

Point Line

159.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

A

Movistar Estudiantes

L

89

95

6

19

L 1

86

97

Mar 7

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

86

84

6

18

W 2

85

89

Feb 27

A

Acunsa GBC

W

97

74

5

18

W 1

92

82

Feb 6

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

73

90

4

18

L 5

81

84

Jan 30

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

72

80

4

17

L 4

69

83

Jan 23

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

73

96

4

16

L 3

68

97

Jan 17

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

70

72

4

15

L 2

74

76

Jan 9

H

Valencia Basket

L

73

106

4

14

L 1

75

101

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

H

Real Madrid

L

74

85

19

6

L 1

80

81

Mar 7

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

87

78

19

5

W 4

84

80

Feb 28

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

90

74

18

5

W 3

89

75

Feb 7

A

Iberostar Tenerife

W

81

79

17

5

W 2

84

73

Jan 31

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

89

61

16

5

W 1

82

62

Jan 24

A

Valencia Basket

L

61

83

15

5

L 1

63

79

Jan 17

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

103

76

15

4

W 7

101

81

Jan 10

A

Unicaja

W

91

79

14

4

W 6

91

77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bilbao (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bilbao will expected to score 78 points and the Baskonia 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bilbao

Baskonia

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

14.80

16.40

DRB

20.60

21.20

AST-TO

1.05

1.20

TRB

29.20

29.80

FTM

13.00

9.70

BL

2.40

2.20

FTA

16.70

13.20

PF-Fewer

21.00

19.30

ST

6.00

7.20

TO-Fewer

14.10

13.70

Ftper

0.78

0.73

ORBper

0.42

0.41

ORB

8.60

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Valencia vs Barcelona at 21 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Barcelona for Liga ACB, which will take place on 21 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Valencia

3.1

1.34

Barcelona

1.38

3.94

Valencia HC

+5.5

-7.00

Barcelona HC

-5.5

7.00

Point Line

158.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

A

Acunsa GBC

L

60

78

17

8

L 1

57

86

Mar 7

H

Manresa

W

112

82

17

7

W 1

108

81

Feb 28

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

72

84

16

7

L 1

76

88

Feb 6

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

89

81

16

6