2021 03 20 VTB United League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Zenit vs Enisey at 20 March 2021
Minsk vs Astana at 21 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Zenit vs Enisey at 20 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zenit and Enisey for VTB United League, which will take place on 20 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zenit

1.11

1.15

Enisey

6.2

7.55

Zenit HC

-12.5

-10.00

Enisey HC

+12.5

10.00

Point Line

162.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 15

H

Parma

W

89

84

16

3

W 1

90

86

Mar 8

H

BC Khimki

L

78

81

15

3

L 1

76

78

Feb 13

A

CSKA Moscow

W

74

71

15

2

W 1

80

62

Feb 10

A

UNICS

L

58

59

14

2

L 1

64

59

Feb 7

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

99

73

14

1

W 7

94

82

Feb 2

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

78

73

13

1

W 6

80

75

Jan 31

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

90

85

12

1

W 5

88

76

Jan 18

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

87

51

11

1

W 4

84

54

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Enisey are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 11

A

Zielona Gora

L

79

117

4

13

L 3

75

109

Feb 27

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

98

100

4

12

L 2

96

90

Feb 10

H

CSKA Moscow

L

80

91

4

11

L 1

87

79

Feb 4

A

Astana

W

78

60

4

10

W 3

74

65

Feb 1

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

86

75

3

10

W 2

84

80

Jan 24

H

Astana

W

77

76

2

10

W 1

73

82

Jan 17

H

Parma

L

52

86

1

10

L 6

53

89

Jan 3

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

67

85

1

9

L 5

75

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Enisey.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Enisey and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zenit (in the first graph) and by Enisey in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zenit will expected to score 85 points and the Enisey 74 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zenit

Enisey

FG%

0.56

0.52

ASS

19.20

15.20

DRB

23.40

20.20

AST-TO

1.41

0.98

TRB

31.90

27.80

FTM

19.40

17.40

BL

2.80

0.60

FTA

23.40

23.90

PF-Fewer

21.10

24.90

ST

7.40

5.70

TO-Fewer

13.60

15.50

Ftper

0.83

0.73

ORBper

0.36

0.38

ORB

8.50

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Minsk vs Astana at 21 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Minsk and Astana for VTB United League, which will take place on 21 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Minsk

2.35

5.43

Astana

1.57

1.23

Minsk HC

+3.5

8.50

Astana HC

-3.5

-8.50

Point Line

156.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Minsk are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

57

78

2

15

L 7

58

80

Mar 7

A

CSKA Moscow

L

67

101

2

14

L 6

73

88

Feb 28

A

Avtodor

L

66

113

2

13

L 5

63

110

Feb 7

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

73

99

2

12

L 4

82

96

Jan 30

H

UNICS

L

66

76

2

11

L 3

73

76

Jan 24

H

Kalev/Cramo

L

72

80

2

10

L 2

70

85

Jan 17

H

Zielona Gora

L

75

80

2

9

L 1

71

75

Jan 9

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

77

76

2

8

W 1

78

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Astana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

73

75

4

13

L 6

74

77

Mar 1

H

Kalev/Cramo

L

61

77

4

12

L 5

59

82

Feb 12

H

BC Khimki

L

77

82

4

11

L 4

75

79

Feb 4

H

Enisey

L

60

78

4

10

L 3

56

84

Jan 31

H

Avtodor

L

83

92

4

9

L 2

79

90

Jan 24

A

Enisey

L

76

77

4

8

L 1

71

82

Jan 9

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

86

82

4

7

W 1

84

74

Dec 26

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

77

3

7

L 1

79

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Minsk and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Astana.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Astana and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Minsk.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Minsk (in the first graph) and by Astana in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Minsk will expected to score 79 points and the Astana 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Minsk

Astana

FG%

0.49

0.51

ASS

14.80

18.50

DRB

20.00

21.50

AST-TO

1.01

1.41

TRB

28.40

29.10

FTM

11.10

13.10

BL

1.40

2.40

FTA

15.40

18.10

PF-Fewer

22.20

21.20

ST

6.20

5.70

TO-Fewer

14.70

13.10

Ftper

0.72

0.72

ORBper

0.42

0.35

ORB

8.40

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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