2021 03 23 7DAYS EuroCup



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Virtus Bologna vs Joventut Badalona at 23 March 2021
Monaco vs Buducnost at 23 March 2021
Lokomotiv Kuban vs Unics at 25 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Virtus Bologna vs Joventut Badalona at 23 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Bologna and Joventut Badalona for EuroCup, which will take place on 23 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Virtus Bologna

1.29

2.12

Joventut Badalona

3.75

1.89

Virtus Bologna HC

-7.5

1.50

Joventut Badalona HC

+7.5

-1.50

Point Line

168.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 9

H

JL Bourg

W

83

62

16

0

W 15

83

62

Mar 2

A

Cedevita Olimpija

W

108

98

15

0

W 14

113

95

Feb 3

A

Buducnost VOLI

W

99

89

14

0

W 13

100

88

Jan 26

H

Buducnost VOLI

W

87

65

13

0

W 12

88

64

Jan 20

A

JL Bourg

W

99

87

12

0

W 11

99

87

Jan 13

H

Cedevita Olimpija

W

90

76

11

0

W 10

94

74

Dec 22

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

92

81

10

0

W 9

99

88

Dec 16

H

Antwerp Giants

W

92

73

9

0

W 8

86

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 9

A

Nanterre 92

W

95

88

12

4

W 1

90

84

Mar 2

H

Unicaja

L

77

90

11

4

L 2

75

84

Feb 2

A

Monaco

L

82

97

11

3

L 1

88

93

Jan 26

H

Monaco

W

79

72

11

2

W 6

85

69

Jan 20

H

Nanterre 92

W

95

90

10

2

W 5

90

86

Jan 13

A

Unicaja

W

95

86

9

2

W 4

92

80

Dec 30

H

JL Bourg

W

90

75

8

2

W 3

90

75

Dec 15

H

UNICS

W

84

77

7

2

W 2

88

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Virtus Bologna (in the first graph) and by Joventut Badalona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Virtus Bologna will expected to score 86 points and the Joventut Badalona 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Virtus Bologna

Joventut Badalona

FG%

0.61

0.58

ASS

24.80

20.10

DRB

24.10

22.60

AST-TO

1.60

1.52

TRB

31.40

31.60

FTM

14.60

16.20

BL

3.40

2.00

FTA

19.10

20.60

PF-Fewer

22.80

20.80

ST

8.70

5.10

TO-Fewer

15.50

13.20

Ftper

0.76

0.79

ORBper

0.30

0.40

ORB

7.30

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Monaco vs Buducnost at 23 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Buducnost for EuroCup, which will take place on 23 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Monaco

1.3

1.62

Buducnost

3.7

2.63

Monaco HC

-7.5

-4.00

Buducnost HC

+7.5

4.00

Point Line

156.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 9

A

Unicaja

W

98

89

11

5

W 3

95

83

Mar 2

H

Nanterre 92

W

98

94

10

5

W 2

92

90

Feb 2

H

Joventut

W

97

82

9

5

W 1

97

76

Jan 26

A

Joventut

L

72

79

8

5

L 1

72

73

Jan 19

H

Unicaja

W

90

71

8

4

W 4

87

66

Jan 13

A

Nanterre 92

W

93

65

7

4

W 3

88

62

Dec 29

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

66

64

6

4

W 2

71

69

Dec 18

A

Lietkabelis

W

88

64

5

4

W 1

86

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buducnost are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 9

H

Cedevita Olimpija

W

79

66

8

8

W 2

83

64

Mar 3

A

JL Bourg

W

92

89

7

8

W 1

92

89

Feb 3

H

Virtus Bologna

L

89

99

6

8

L 3

95

88

Jan 26

A

Virtus Bologna

L

65

87

6

7

L 2

69

77

Jan 19

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

71

74

6

6

L 1

75

72

Jan 12

H

JL Bourg

W

108

80

6

5

W 1

108

80

Dec 16

H

Mornar

L

78

84

5

5

L 2

76

87

Dec 11

H

Metropolitans 92

L

71

73

5

4

L 1

71

73

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buducnost.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buducnost and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Monaco (in the first graph) and by Buducnost in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Monaco will expected to score 81 points and the Buducnost 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Monaco

Buducnost

FG%

0.53

0.52

ASS

15.50

14.10

DRB

20.70

23.20

AST-TO

1.49

1.12

TRB

31.80

31.10

FTM

15.10

18.10

BL

2.60

2.60

FTA

21.40

22.80

PF-Fewer

20.50

19.00

ST

7.10

6.80

TO-Fewer

10.40

12.60

Ftper

0.71

0.79

ORBper

0.54

0.34

ORB

11.10

7.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Lokomotiv Kuban vs Unics at 25 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lokomotiv Kuban and Unics for EuroCup, which will take place on 25 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Lokomotiv Kuban

1.65

1.76

Unics

2.3

2.31

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

-2.5

-2.50

Unics HC

+2.5

2.50

Point Line

160.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 22

A

UNICS

L

88

94

11

6

L 1

93

90

Mar 10

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

W

100

86

11

5

W 2

108

91

Mar 3

A

Metropolitans 92

W

83

61

10

5

W 1

83

61

Feb 3

A

Partizan NIS

L

69

71

9

5

L 1

75

76

Jan 27

H

Partizan NIS

W

74

67

9

4

W 1

80

71

Jan 20

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

84

96

8

4

L 2

91

101

Jan 12

H

Metropolitans 92

L

79

83

8

3

L 1

79

83

Dec 16

H

Monaco

W

76

72

8

2

W 3

82

69

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 22

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

94

88

12

5

W 1

95

80

Mar 10

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

90

96

11

5

L 1

90

96

Mar 3

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

85

63

11

4

W 5

91

68

Feb 3

H

Mornar

W

86

61

10

4

W 4

84

63

Jan 27

A

Mornar

W

87

70

9

4

W 3

85

72

Jan 20

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

73

62

8

4

W 2

73

62

Jan 13

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

73

66

7

4

W 1

78

72

Dec 15

A

Joventut

L

77

84

6

4

L 1

77

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Lokomotiv Kuban will expected to score 84 points and the Unics 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Lokomotiv Kuban

Unics

FG%

0.55

0.55

ASS

18.80

17.50

DRB

24.80

22.00

AST-TO

1.40

1.52

TRB

35.00

32.10

FTM

15.80

12.10

BL

3.10

1.60

FTA

22.40

14.90

PF-Fewer

19.40

21.50

ST

6.80

7.30

TO-Fewer

13.40

11.50

Ftper

0.70

0.81

ORBper

0.41

0.46

ORB

10.20

10.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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