2021 03 23 BCL – MATH to WIN

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Strasbourg vs AEK Athens at 23 March 2021
Karsiyaka vs Hapoel Holon at 23 March 2021
Nizhny Novgorod vs Turk Telekom at 23 March 2021
Brose Bamberg vs Zaragoza at 23 March 2021
Tenerife vs Igokea at 23 March 2021
Tofas vs Brindisi at 24 March 2021
VEF Riga vs San Pablo Burgos at 24 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Strasbourg vs AEK Athens at 23 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Strasbourg and AEK Athens for BCL, which will take place on 23 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Strasbourg	1.65	2.32
AEK Athens	2.53	1.76
Strasbourg HC	-3.5	2.50
AEK Athens HC	+3.5	-2.50
Point Line	154.5	156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Strasbourg are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 16	A	AEK Athens	L	68	77	4	5		70	74
Mar 10	H	Nizhny Novgorod	L	68	73	4	4		73	71
Mar 2	A	Turk Telekom	L	76	83	4	3		78	84
Jan 26	A	Lietuvos Rytas	L	77	81	4	2		72	83
Jan 13	H	BC VEF Riga	W	101	94	4	1		104	97
Dec 22	A	Peristeri BC	W	79	76	3	1		82	79
Dec 8	H	Peristeri BC	W	77	57	2	1		80	60
Nov 10	H	Lietuvos Rytas	L	81	83	1	1		76	85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 16	H	Strasbourg IG	W	77	68	6	2		80	69
Mar 10	H	Turk Telekom	W	74	65	5	2		76	66
Jan 20	A	Tsmoki-Minsk	W	95	90	4	2		92	93
Jan 5	A	Hapoel Unet Holon	L	71	77	3	2		74	77
Dec 15	H	Cholet Basket	L	70	79	3	1		72	82
Nov 17	H	Cholet Basket	W	83	81	3	0		86	85
Nov 11	H	Tsmoki-Minsk	W	95	69	2	0		92	72
Nov 4	H	Hapoel Unet Holon	W	100	96	1	0		104	96

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Strasbourg and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Strasbourg.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Strasbourg (in the first graph) and by AEK Athens in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Strasbourg will expected to score 80 points and the AEK Athens 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Strasbourg	AEK Athens
FG%	0.54	0.58
ASS	15.10	20.00
DRB	22.80	19.80
AST-TO	0.95	1.83
TRB	30.40	27.90
FTM	16.80	16.20
BL	2.90	2.50
FTA	23.10	22.10
PF-Fewer	18.60	22.00
ST	5.20	5.80
TO-Fewer	15.90	10.90
Ftper	0.73	0.73
ORBper	0.34	0.41
ORB	7.70	8.10

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Karsiyaka vs Hapoel Holon at 23 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Karsiyaka and Hapoel Holon for BCL, which will take place on 23 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Karsiyaka	1.34	1.93
Hapoel Holon	3.4	2.07
Karsiyaka HC	-6.5	-1.50
Hapoel Holon HC	+6.5	1.50
Point Line	157.5	151.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 17	A	Hapoel Unet Holon	W	72	63	6	3		75	63
Mar 9	A	Enel Brindisi	L	79	83	5	3		76	78
Mar 3	H	Tofas SC	W	78	70	5	2		78	66
Jan 27	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	85	76	4	2		91	81
Jan 12	A	Fortituto Kontatto Bologna	W	78	65	3	2		77	78
Jan 5	H	Fortituto Kontatto Bologna	W	80	69	2	2		79	83
Dec 23	H	Brose Baskets Bamberg	L	70	76	1	2		75	73
Dec 8	A	Brose Baskets Bamberg	L	82	83	1	1		88	80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Holon are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 17	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	63	72	6	3		69	73
Mar 9	A	Tofas SC	W	93	81	6	2		92	77
Mar 2	H	Enel Brindisi	W	87	85	5	2		84	79
Jan 20	H	Cholet Basket	W	89	71	4	2		92	74
Jan 5	H	AEK Athens	W	77	71	3	2		79	68
Dec 15	A	Tsmoki-Minsk	W	75	71	2	2		73	74
Nov 17	H	Tsmoki-Minsk	L	69	79	1	2		67	82
Nov 10	A	Cholet Basket	W	73	63	1	1		75	66

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hapoel Holon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hapoel Holon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Karsiyaka (in the first graph) and by Hapoel Holon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Karsiyaka will expected to score 79 points and the Hapoel Holon 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Var	Karsiyaka	Hapoel Holon
FG%	0.52	0.54
ASS	17.40	18.90
DRB	21.70	21.30
AST-TO	1.71	1.32
TRB	29.90	28.70
FTM	14.00	14.30
BL	2.00	2.30
FTA	18.70	19.10
PF-Fewer	19.20	21.60
ST	5.40	5.80
TO-Fewer	10.20	14.30
Ftper	0.75	0.75
ORBper	0.38	0.34
ORB	8.20	7.30

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Nizhny Novgorod vs Turk Telekom at 23 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nizhny Novgorod and Turk Telekom for BCL, which will take place on 23 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Nizhny Novgorod	1.65	2.17
Turk Telekom	2.3	1.86
Nizhny Novgorod HC	-3.5	2.00
Turk Telekom HC	+3.5	-2.00
Point Line	155.5	155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nizhny Novgorod are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 17	A	Turk Telekom	W	84	71	6	2		86	72
Mar 10	A	Strasbourg IG	W	73	68	5	2		76	69
Jan 19	A	Falco-Vulcano Energia KC Szombathely	W	73	68	4	2		75	66
Jan 5	H	Casademont Zaragoza	L	92	98	3	2		91	89
Dec 23	H	Wikana Start S.A. Lublin	W	78	65	3	1		74	71
Dec 16	A	Wikana Start S.A. Lublin	W	85	66	2	1		80	72
Dec 9	H	Falco-Vulcano Energia KC Szombathely	W	93	88	1	1		95	85
Nov 11	A	Casademont Zaragoza	L	75	78	0	1		74	71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Turk Telekom are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 17	H	Nizhny Novgorod	L	71	84	6	3		76	82
Mar 10	A	AEK Athens	L	65	74	6	2		67	71
Mar 2	H	Strasbourg IG	W	83	76	6	1		86	78
Jan 26	H	BC Igokea	W	94	86	5	1		96	90
Jan 13	A	Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem	W	78	77	4	1		78	75
Dec 23	A	CSP Limoges	W	75	70	3	1		78	73
Dec 9	H	CSP Limoges	W	76	73	2	1		79	76
Nov 11	A	BC Igokea	L	66	77	1	1		68	80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nizhny Novgorod and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Turk Telekom.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Turk Telekom and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nizhny Novgorod.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nizhny Novgorod (in the first graph) and by Turk Telekom in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nizhny Novgorod will expected to score 80 points and the Turk Telekom 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Var	Nizhny Novgorod	Turk Telekom
FG%	0.56	0.53
ASS	19.40	19.10
DRB	23.20	22.40
AST-TO	1.34	1.65
TRB	31.90	32.20
FTM	7.50	11.70
BL	2.90	2.30
FTA	11.10	14.90
PF-Fewer	20.90	21.20
ST	8.50	5.60
TO-Fewer	14.50	11.60
Ftper	0.67	0.78
ORBper	0.37	0.44
ORB	8.60	9.80

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Brose Bamberg vs Zaragoza at 23 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brose Bamberg and Zaragoza for BCL, which will take place on 23 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Brose Bamberg	2.22	2.02
Zaragoza	1.7	1.98
Brose Bamberg HC	+2.5	1.00
Zaragoza HC	-2.5	-1.00
Point Line	167.5	159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brose Bamberg are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 10	A	Casademont Zaragoza	L	65	77	6	2		64	70
Mar 2	H	CEZ Nymburk	L	87	91	6	1		86	78
Jan 27	H	Fortituto Kontatto Bologna	W	83	68	6	0		82	82
Jan 12	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	90	75	5	0		96	80
Dec 23	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	W	76	70	4	0		83	71
Dec 8	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	W	83	82	3	0		91	84
Nov 10	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	77	71	2	0		82	76
Oct 27	A	Fortituto Kontatto Bologna	W	100	63	1	0		98	76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 10	H	Brose Baskets Bamberg	W	77	65	7	1		83	63
Mar 2	A	Banco di Sardegna Sassari	W	95	83	6	1		85	76
Jan 19	H	Wikana Start S.A. Lublin	W	94	82	5	1		89	90
Jan 5	A	Nizhny Novgorod	W	98	92	4	1		105	90
Dec 22	A	Falco-Vulcano Energia KC Szombathely	L	86	94	3	1		88	91
Dec 16	H	Falco-Vulcano Energia KC Szombathely	W	85	76	3	0		87	74
Nov 11	H	Nizhny Novgorod	W	78	75	2	0		83	73
Oct 21	A	Wikana Start S.A. Lublin	W	86	85	1	0		81	93

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brose Bamberg and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brose Bamberg.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brose Bamberg (in the first graph) and by Zaragoza in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brose Bamberg will expected to score 83 points and the Zaragoza 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Var	Brose Bamberg	Zaragoza
FG%	0.58	0.56
ASS	20.40	21.40
DRB	24.80	23.20
AST-TO	1.38	1.63
TRB	32.00	29.80
FTM	12.40	13.90
BL	3.80	4.40
FTA	16.50	19.90
PF-Fewer	18.10	18.40
ST	6.20	7.80
TO-Fewer	14.80	13.10
Ftper	0.75	0.70
ORBper	0.29	0.28
ORB	7.20	6.50

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Tenerife vs Igokea at 23 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Igokea for BCL, which will take place on 23 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Tenerife	1.11	1.81
Igokea	7.1	2.24
Tenerife HC	-11.5	-2.50
Igokea HC	+11.5	2.50
Point Line	159.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 17	H	BC VEF Riga	W	77	64	6	3		80	66
Mar 9	A	Hereda San Pablo Burgos	L	79	101	5	3		82	88
Mar 3	A	BC Igokea	W	82	62	5	2		84	65
Jan 20	A	Bakken Bears	L	78	96	4	2		74	87