2021 03 23 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Yeovil vs Notts County at 23 March 2021
Aldershot vs Chesterfield at 23 March 2021
Altrincham vs King’s Lynn at 23 March 2021
Bromley vs Sutton at 23 March 2021
Dag and Red vs Hartlepool at 23 March 2021
Stockport vs Eastleigh at 23 March 2021
Torquay vs Solihull at 23 March 2021
Wealdstone vs Woking at 23 March 2021
Weymouth vs Boreham Wood at 23 March 2021


Yeovil vs Notts County at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Yeovil and Notts County for Conference (England), which will take place on 23 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Yeovil

2.72

2.71

0.1

Draw

3.15

3.66

-4.4

Notts County

2.59

2.79

-2.8

Over 2.5

2.03

2.01

0.5

Under 2.5

1.76

1.99

-6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Yeovil, Over 2.5 (0.1 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Yeovil in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance at home.
Yeovil, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Notts County

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Woking

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Sutton

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Chesterfield

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Mar

Barnet

A

4

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Dag and Red

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Weymouth

H

3

1

W

O

G


Notts County in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance as a guest.
Notts County, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Yeovil

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Boreham Wood

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Wealdstone

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Stockport

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Chesterfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Feb

King’s Lynn

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Yeovil is -0.771 and for the Notts County is 0.344.
The home dynamic for the Yeovil is 0.667 and the dynamic as a guest for the Notts County is 0.642.
The offensive ability for the Yeovil is 0.202 and for the Notts County is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Yeovil is -1 and for the Notts County is 0.957.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Yeovil and the red line for guest team, Notts County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Yeovil

24%

39%

23%

15%

Notts County

27%

34%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.18 goals and Notts County to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.28 goals and Notts County to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

3.97

1

5.35

2-3

2.01

2

3.98

4+

3.95

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.97

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.80

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.24

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.40

3.88

3.07

2-3 goals

2.78

3.74

2.69

4+ goals

2.98

3.33

2.75

Ov 1.5

2.84

3.59

2.71

Un 1.5

2.40

3.88

3.07

Ov 2.5

2.46

6.57

2.27

Un 2.5

3.03

2.54

3.62

Ov 3.5

2.98

3.33

2.75

Un 3.5

2.64

3.78

2.81

Goal-Goal

3.41

2.66

3.02

No Goal

2.17

6.86

2.55

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.60

5.57

2.30

NG+Un 2.5

2.23

6.86

2.66


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Aldershot vs Chesterfield at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aldershot and Chesterfield for Conference (England), which will take place on 23 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aldershot

3.05

2.48

7.5

Draw

3.39

3.72

-2.6

Chesterfield

2.22

3.06

-12.4

Over 2.5

1.84

2.01

-4.6

Under 2.5

1.95

1.99

-1.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aldershot (7.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aldershot in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aldershot in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance at home.
Aldershot, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aldershot was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Boreham Wood

H

3

3

D

O

G

16 Mar

Halifax

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Altrincham

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Maidenhead

A

4

2

W

O

G

20 Feb

Wrexham

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Feb

Solihull

H

1

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Stockport

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Feb

Barnet

H

2

1

W

O

G


Chesterfield in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance as a guest.
Chesterfield, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Sutton

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Maidenhead

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Yeovil

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Eastleigh

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Stockport

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Feb

Altrincham

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Aldershot is 0.286 and for the Chesterfield is 0.06.
The home dynamic for the Aldershot is 0.508 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chesterfield is -0.064.
The offensive ability for the Aldershot is 0.571 and for the Chesterfield is -0.255.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Aldershot is -0.441 and for the Chesterfield is 0.957.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aldershot and the red line for guest team, Chesterfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aldershot

24%

35%

24%

17%

Chesterfield

29%

35%

23%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.15 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.34 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.91

1

5.38

2-3

2.04

2

4.07

4+

3.95

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.91

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.53

3.66

3.01

2-3 goals

2.42

4.02

2.96

4+ goals

2.53

3.29

3.33

Ov 1.5

2.46

3.74

3.07

Un 1.5

2.53

3.66

3.01

Ov 2.5

2.13

6.47

2.66

Un 2.5

2.95

2.61

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.53

3.29

3.33

Un 3.5

2.46

3.89

2.98

Goal-Goal

2.92

2.70

3.47

No Goal

2.10

6.60

2.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

5.40

2.68

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

6.60

2.71


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Altrincham vs King’s Lynn at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Altrincham and King’s Lynn for Conference (England), which will take place on 23 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Altrincham

2.06

2.06

0.0

Draw

3.54

3.95

-2.9

King’s Lynn

3.50

3.83

-2.5

Over 2.5

1.83

1.97

-3.9

Under 2.5

1.97

2.03

-1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Altrincham in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance at home.
Altrincham, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Dag and Red

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Woking

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Aldershot

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Mar

Hartlepool

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Bromley

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Feb

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Boreham Wood

H

2

3

L

O

G


King’s Lynn in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance as a guest.
King’s Lynn, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Torquay

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Hartlepool

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Sutton

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Wealdstone

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Woking

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Mar

Notts County

A

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Weymouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Barnet

H

5

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Altrincham is -0.714 and for the King’s Lynn is -0.967.
The home dynamic for the Altrincham is -0.254 and the dynamic as a guest for the King’s Lynn is -0.988.
The offensive ability for the Altrincham is 0.545 and for the King’s Lynn is -0.346.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Altrincham is -0.441 and for the King’s Lynn is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Altrincham and the red line for guest team, King’s Lynn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Altrincham

24%

27%

26%

24%

King’s Lynn

34%

36%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.56 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Altrincham to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.49 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Altrincham to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.83

1

5.59

2-3

2.07

2

4.29

4+

3.92

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.83

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.87

3.18

2.97

2-3 goals

1.84

4.98

3.90

4+ goals

1.92

3.49

5.20

Ov 1.5

1.87

4.34

4.27

Un 1.5

2.87

3.18

2.97

Ov 2.5

1.64

6.92

4.04

Un 2.5

2.76

2.76

3.63

Ov 3.5

1.92

3.49

5.20

Un 3.5

2.11

4.16

3.51

Goal-Goal

2.20

2.94

4.89

No Goal

1.93

6.10

3.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.77

5.51

3.94

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

6.10

2.92


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bromley vs Sutton at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bromley and Sutton for Conference (England), which will take place on 23 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bromley

2.79

2.67

1.6

Draw

3.27

3.68

-3.4

Sutton

2.40

2.83

-6.3

Over 2.5

1.94

2.02

-2.0

Under 2.5

1.82

1.98

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bromley (1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bromley in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance at home.
Bromley, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Solihull

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Yeovil

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Barnet

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Mar

Eastleigh

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Sutton

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Altrincham

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Boreham Wood

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Maidenhead

H

2

2

D

O

G


Sutton in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance as a guest.
Sutton, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Stockport

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Chesterfield

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

King’s Lynn

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Yeovil

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Wrexham

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Bromley

H

3

2

W

O

G

23 Feb

Dag and Red

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Wealdstone

H

4

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Bromley is 1 and for the Sutton is 1.
The home dynamic for the Bromley is 0.508 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sutton is 1.
The offensive ability for the Bromley is 1 and for the Sutton is 0.961.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bromley is -0.259 and for the Sutton is 0.957.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bromley and the red line for guest team, Sutton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bromley

25%

37%

23%

15%

Sutton

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.17 goals and Sutton to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.29 goals and Sutton to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.89

1

5.32

2-3

2.03

2

4.02

4+

3.98

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.89

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.19

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at