2021 03 23 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Blackpool vs Peterboro at 23 March 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Swindon at 23 March 2021
Burton vs Shrewsbury at 23 March 2021
Northampton vs Oxford at 23 March 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale at 23 March 2021


Blackpool vs Peterboro at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackpool and Peterboro for League One (England), which will take place on 23 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackpool

2.89

2.22

10.4

Draw

3.23

3.86

-5.1

Peterboro

2.50

3.45

-11.0

Over 2.5

2.21

1.97

5.5

Under 2.5

1.67

2.03

-10.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Blackpool, Over 2.5 (10.4 %, 5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Blackpool in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackpool in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance at home.
Blackpool, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 57.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Oxford

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Burton

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Fleetwood Town

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Crewe

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Charlton

A

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Portsmouth

A

1

0

W

U

N


Peterboro in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance as a guest.
Peterboro, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 46.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Rochdale

A

3

3

D

O

G

16 Mar

Portsmouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Hull

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Burton

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Oxford

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Wigan

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Plymouth

A

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

AFC Wimbledon

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Blackpool is 0.657 and for the Peterboro is 0.016.
The home dynamic for the Blackpool is 0.984 and the dynamic as a guest for the Peterboro is 0.04.
The offensive ability for the Blackpool is 0.597 and for the Peterboro is 0.961.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Blackpool is 1 and for the Peterboro is 0.286.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackpool and the red line for guest team, Peterboro.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackpool

23%

29%

28%

19%

Peterboro

32%

36%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.08 goals and Peterboro to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.43 goals and Peterboro to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.95

1

5.62

2-3

2.04

2

4.17

4+

3.88

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.95

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.72

3.37

2.98

2-3 goals

1.95

4.66

3.68

4+ goals

2.41

3.27

3.58

Ov 1.5

2.09

4.06

3.64

Un 1.5

2.72

3.37

2.98

Ov 2.5

1.88

6.42

3.19

Un 2.5

2.71

2.74

3.76

Ov 3.5

2.41

3.27

3.58

Un 3.5

2.16

4.12

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.83

4.04

No Goal

1.97

6.39

2.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.27

3.22

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

6.39

2.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Bristol Rvs vs Swindon at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bristol Rvs and Swindon for League One (England), which will take place on 23 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bristol Rvs

2.12

2.39

-5.3

Draw

3.41

3.65

-1.9

Swindon

3.50

3.26

2.1

Over 2.5

1.92

2.12

-4.9

Under 2.5

1.90

1.89

0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon, Under 2.5 (2.1 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bristol Rvs in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol Rvs in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance at home.
Bristol Rvs, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Plymouth

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Charlton

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Accrington

H

4

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Burton

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Shrewsbury

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Wigan

H

1

2

L

O

G


Swindon in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance as a guest.
Swindon, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 23.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Fleetwood Town

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Gillingham

H

1

3

L

O

G

09 Mar

Oxford

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Accrington

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Sunderland

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Lincoln

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Feb

Crewe

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Bristol Rvs is -1 and for the Swindon is -0.454.
The home dynamic for the Bristol Rvs is -0.206 and the dynamic as a guest for the Swindon is -0.908.
The offensive ability for the Bristol Rvs is -0.519 and for the Swindon is 0.961.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bristol Rvs is -0.343 and for the Swindon is -0.243.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bristol Rvs and the red line for guest team, Swindon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bristol Rvs

24%

36%

24%

16%

Swindon

31%

36%

23%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 1.49 goals and Swindon to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Bristol Rvs to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 1.33 goals and Swindon to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.68

1

5.08

2-3

2.00

2

3.88

4+

4.41

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.68

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

3.63

3.13

2-3 goals

2.37

3.88

3.11

4+ goals

2.36

3.20

3.78

Ov 1.5

2.37

3.64

3.29

Un 1.5

2.47

3.63

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.02

6.62

2.83

Un 2.5

2.88

2.60

3.73

Ov 3.5

2.36

3.20

3.78

Un 3.5

2.41

3.79

3.12

Goal-Goal

2.87

2.62

3.71

No Goal

2.03

6.36

2.86

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.16

5.55

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

6.36

2.82


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Burton vs Shrewsbury at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Burton and Shrewsbury for League One (England), which will take place on 23 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Burton

2.33

2.78

-6.9

Draw

3.20

3.64

-3.8

Shrewsbury

3.21

2.74

5.3

Over 2.5

2.37

2.08

5.9

Under 2.5

1.59

1.92

-10.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (5.3 %, 5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Burton in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance at home.
Burton, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Mar

Blackpool

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Crewe

A

3

0

W

O

N

09 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Peterboro

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Bristol Rvs

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Rochdale

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Charlton

A

2

1

W

O

G


Shrewsbury in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance as a guest.
Shrewsbury, as a guest, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Hull

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Charlton

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Rochdale

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Fleetwood Town

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Bristol Rvs

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

H

4

2

W

O

G

20 Feb

Accrington

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Burton is 0.786 and for the Shrewsbury is -0.148.
The home dynamic for the Burton is -0.667 and the dynamic as a guest for the Shrewsbury is 0.214.
The offensive ability for the Burton is 1 and for the Shrewsbury is 0.922.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Burton is 0.776 and for the Shrewsbury is -0.329.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Burton and the red line for guest team, Shrewsbury.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Burton

28%

34%

23%

15%

Shrewsbury

25%

37%

26%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burton to score 1.2 goals and Shrewsbury to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burton to score 1.24 goals and Shrewsbury to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.82

1

5.24

2-3

1.99

2

3.86

4+

4.24

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.82

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.24

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.05

3.69

2.50

2-3 goals

2.79

3.96

2.57

4+ goals

2.51

3.06

3.63

Ov 1.5

2.70

3.62

2.83

Un 1.5

3.05

3.69

2.50

Ov 2.5

2.22

6.23

2.57

Un 2.5

3.62

2.63

2.91

Ov 3.5

2.51

3.06

3.63

Un 3.5

2.88

3.86

2.54

Goal-Goal

3.01

2.64

3.47

No Goal

2.56

6.52

2.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.30

5.34

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.74

6.52

2.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Northampton vs Oxford at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Northampton and Oxford for League One (England), which will take place on 23 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Northampton

3.63

2.62

10.6

Draw

3.33

3.92

-4.5

Oxford

2.09

2.75

-11.5

Over 2.5

2.27

1.87

9.4

Under 2.5

1.63

2.16

-15.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Northampton, Over 2.5 (10.6 %, 9.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Northampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance at home.
Northampton, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 35.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Crewe

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Doncaster

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Charlton

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Portsmouth

H

4

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Plymouth

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Swindon

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Feb

Rochdale

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

A

3

4

L

O

G


Oxford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance as a guest.
Oxford, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 46.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Blackpool

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Doncaster

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Mar

Swindon

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Charlton

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Peterboro

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Portsmouth

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Northampton is -0.414 and for the Oxford is 0.005.
The home dynamic for the Northampton is -0.19 and the dynamic as a guest for the Oxford is 0.353.
The offensive ability for the Northampton is 0.116 and for the Oxford is -0.83.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Northampton is 0.259 and for the Oxford is 0.814.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Northampton and the red line for guest team, Oxford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Northampton

29%

25%

27%

18%

Oxford

24%

38%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Northampton to score 0.9 goals and Oxford to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and the guest team Oxford to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.35 goals and Oxford to score 1.31 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.17

1

5.88

2-3

2.11

2

4.46

4+

3.48

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.81

Un 1.5

4.17

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

1.87

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

2.16

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.48

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-