# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Blackpool vs Peterboro at 23 March 2021**** Bristol Rvs vs Swindon at 23 March 2021**** Burton vs Shrewsbury at 23 March 2021**** Northampton vs Oxford at 23 March 2021**** AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale at 23 March 2021**

###
Blackpool vs Peterboro at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Blackpool** and **Peterboro** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **23 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Blackpool |
2.89 |
2.22 |
10.4 |

Draw |
3.23 |
3.86 |
-5.1 |

Peterboro |
2.50 |
3.45 |
-11.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.21 |
1.97 |
5.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
2.03 |
-10.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Blackpool, Over 2.5 (10.4 %, 5.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Blackpool** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackpool** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance** at home**.

Blackpool,** at home**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 57.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Oxford |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Burton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Charlton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** as a guest**.

Peterboro,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 46.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Hull |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Burton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Plymouth |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Blackpool** is **0.657** and for the **Peterboro** is **0.016.**

The home dynamic for the **Blackpool** is **0.984** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Peterboro** is **0.04.**

The offensive ability for the **Blackpool** is **0.597** and for the **Peterboro** is **0.961.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Blackpool** is **1** and for the **Peterboro** is **0.286.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Blackpool** and the red line for guest team, **Peterboro. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Blackpool |
23% |
29% |
28% |
19% |

Peterboro |
32% |
36% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Blackpool** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Peterboro** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Blackpool** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Peterboro** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.95 |

1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.88 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |

5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.72 |
3.37 |
2.98 |

2-3 goals |
1.95 |
4.66 |
3.68 |

4+ goals |
2.41 |
3.27 |
3.58 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
4.06 |
3.64 |

Un 1.5 |
2.72 |
3.37 |
2.98 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.42 |
3.19 |

Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
2.74 |
3.76 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.27 |
3.58 |

Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
4.12 |
3.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.50 |
2.83 |
4.04 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
6.39 |
2.98 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.27 |
3.22 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.39 |
2.96 |

####
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###
Bristol Rvs vs Swindon at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bristol Rvs** and **Swindon** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **23 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bristol Rvs |
2.12 |
2.39 |
-5.3 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.65 |
-1.9 |

Swindon |
3.50 |
3.26 |
2.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
2.12 |
-4.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.89 |
0.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swindon, Under 2.5 (2.1 %, 0.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bristol Rvs** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol Rvs** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance** at home**.

Bristol Rvs,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Accrington |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Burton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** as a guest**.

Swindon,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 23.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Sunderland |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Lincoln |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Crewe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Bristol Rvs** is **-1** and for the **Swindon** is **-0.454.**

The home dynamic for the **Bristol Rvs** is **-0.206** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Swindon** is **-0.908.**

The offensive ability for the **Bristol Rvs** is **-0.519** and for the **Swindon** is **0.961.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bristol Rvs** is **-0.343** and for the **Swindon** is **-0.243.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bristol Rvs** and the red line for guest team, **Swindon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bristol Rvs |
24% |
36% |
24% |
16% |

Swindon |
31% |
36% |
23% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bristol Rvs** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Swindon** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Bristol Rvs ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bristol Rvs** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Swindon** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.68 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.41 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.47 |
3.63 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
2.37 |
3.88 |
3.11 |

4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.20 |
3.78 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.64 |
3.29 |

Un 1.5 |
2.47 |
3.63 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.62 |
2.83 |

Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
2.60 |
3.73 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.20 |
3.78 |

Un 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.79 |
3.12 |

Goal-Goal |
2.87 |
2.62 |
3.71 |

No Goal |
2.03 |
6.36 |
2.86 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.55 |
2.79 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
6.36 |
2.82 |

####
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###
Burton vs Shrewsbury at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Burton** and **Shrewsbury** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **23 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Burton |
2.33 |
2.78 |
-6.9 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.64 |
-3.8 |

Shrewsbury |
3.21 |
2.74 |
5.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.37 |
2.08 |
5.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.92 |
-10.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (5.3 %, 5.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Burton** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance** at home**.

Burton,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Blackpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Crewe |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Rochdale |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** as a guest**.

Shrewsbury,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Hull |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Charlton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Mar |
Rochdale |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Burton** is **0.786** and for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.148.**

The home dynamic for the **Burton** is **-0.667** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Shrewsbury** is **0.214.**

The offensive ability for the **Burton** is **1** and for the **Shrewsbury** is **0.922.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Burton** is **0.776** and for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.329.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Burton** and the red line for guest team, **Shrewsbury. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Burton |
28% |
34% |
23% |
15% |

Shrewsbury |
25% |
37% |
26% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Burton** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Shrewsbury** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Burton** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Shrewsbury** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.24 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.05 |
3.69 |
2.50 |

2-3 goals |
2.79 |
3.96 |
2.57 |

4+ goals |
2.51 |
3.06 |
3.63 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.62 |
2.83 |

Un 1.5 |
3.05 |
3.69 |
2.50 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.23 |
2.57 |

Un 2.5 |
3.62 |
2.63 |
2.91 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.51 |
3.06 |
3.63 |

Un 3.5 |
2.88 |
3.86 |
2.54 |

Goal-Goal |
3.01 |
2.64 |
3.47 |

No Goal |
2.56 |
6.52 |
2.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |
5.34 |
2.65 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.74 |
6.52 |
2.20 |

####
Go to Top

###
Northampton vs Oxford at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Northampton** and **Oxford** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **23 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Northampton |
3.63 |
2.62 |
10.6 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.92 |
-4.5 |

Oxford |
2.09 |
2.75 |
-11.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
1.87 |
9.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.16 |
-15.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Northampton, Over 2.5 (10.6 %, 9.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Northampton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Northampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance** at home**.

Northampton,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 35.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Crewe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Doncaster |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Charlton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Portsmouth |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Rochdale |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Oxford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oxford** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance** as a guest**.

Oxford,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 46.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Doncaster |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Northampton** is **-0.414** and for the **Oxford** is **0.005.**

The home dynamic for the **Northampton** is **-0.19** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Oxford** is **0.353.**

The offensive ability for the **Northampton** is **0.116** and for the **Oxford** is **-0.83.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Northampton** is **0.259** and for the **Oxford** is **0.814.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Northampton** and the red line for guest team, **Oxford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Northampton |
29% |
25% |
27% |
18% |

Oxford |
24% |
38% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **0.9 ** goals and **Oxford** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and the guest team **Oxford ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Oxford** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.17 |

1 |
5.88 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.46 |
4+ |
3.48 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.48 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |