# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Southend vs Walsall at 23 March 2021**** Barrow vs Grimsby at 23 March 2021**** Carlisle vs Leyton Orient at 23 March 2021**** Colchester vs Tranmere at 23 March 2021**** Mansfield vs Forest Green at 23 March 2021**** Scunthorpe vs Bradford at 23 March 2021**** Oldham vs Exeter at 23 March 2021**

###
Southend vs Walsall at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Southend** and **Walsall** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **23 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Southend |
3.05 |
2.87 |
2.1 |

Draw |
3.11 |
3.65 |
-4.8 |

Walsall |
2.48 |
2.65 |
-2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.37 |
2.26 |
2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.80 |
-7.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southend, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Southend** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southend** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance** at home**.

Southend,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Oldham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Salford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Forest Green |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** as a guest**.

Walsall,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 10 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 37.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Mar |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Southend** is **-0.643** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.945.**

The home dynamic for the **Southend** is **-0.984** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Walsall** is **-0.168.**

The offensive ability for the **Southend** is **-0.863** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.216.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Southend** is **0.818** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.429.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Southend** and the red line for guest team, **Walsall. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Southend |
34% |
29% |
25% |
12% |

Walsall |
29% |
35% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Southend** to score **1 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Southend** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.10 |
0-1 |
3.29 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.78 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.29 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.14 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.78 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.58 |
3.07 |
2.53 |

2-3 goals |
2.49 |
4.65 |
2.60 |

4+ goals |
3.12 |
2.94 |
2.94 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.96 |
2.70 |

Un 1.5 |
3.58 |
3.07 |
2.53 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
6.21 |
2.44 |

Un 2.5 |
3.54 |
2.74 |
2.84 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.12 |
2.94 |
2.94 |

Un 3.5 |
2.82 |
3.88 |
2.58 |

Goal-Goal |
3.01 |
2.67 |
3.41 |

No Goal |
2.77 |
5.35 |
2.21 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |
5.11 |
2.65 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
5.35 |
2.31 |

####
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###
Barrow vs Grimsby at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Barrow** and **Grimsby** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **23 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Barrow |
1.94 |
2.20 |
-6.1 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.72 |
-3.1 |

Grimsby |
4.17 |
3.61 |
3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.10 |
4.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.91 |
-9.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Grimsby, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Barrow** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barrow** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance** at home**.

Barrow,** at home**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 43.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Crawley Town |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Cheltenham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Mar |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Grimsby** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Grimsby** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance** as a guest**.

Grimsby,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 25.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Mansfield |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Mar |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Carlisle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Crawley Town |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Barrow** is **0.8** and for the **Grimsby** is **-0.377.**

The home dynamic for the **Barrow** is **0.159** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Grimsby** is **-1.**

The offensive ability for the **Barrow** is **0.339** and for the **Grimsby** is **-0.255.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Barrow** is **0.958** and for the **Grimsby** is **0.386.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Barrow** and the red line for guest team, **Grimsby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Barrow |
23% |
33% |
26% |
18% |

Grimsby |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Barrow** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and the home team **Barrow ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Barrow** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Barrow ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.75 |

1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.45 |
3.61 |
3.18 |

2-3 goals |
2.07 |
4.05 |
3.69 |

4+ goals |
2.23 |
3.29 |
4.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.77 |
3.79 |

Un 1.5 |
2.45 |
3.61 |
3.18 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
6.80 |
3.24 |

Un 2.5 |
2.68 |
2.64 |
4.02 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.23 |
3.29 |
4.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.88 |
3.50 |

Goal-Goal |
2.59 |
2.68 |
4.15 |

No Goal |
1.89 |
6.49 |
3.16 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
5.64 |
3.16 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.49 |
3.07 |

####
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###
Carlisle vs Leyton Orient at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Carlisle** and **Leyton Orient** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **23 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Carlisle |
2.08 |
2.36 |
-5.7 |

Draw |
3.38 |
3.64 |
-2.1 |

Leyton Orient |
3.62 |
3.31 |
2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.20 |
-3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.83 |
-1.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leyton Orient (2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** at home**.

Carlisle,** at home**, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Bradford |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Tranmere |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Leyton Orient** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leyton Orient** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance** as a guest**.

Leyton Orient,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Mar |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Tranmere |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Carlisle** is **-0.629** and for the **Leyton Orient** is **0.115.**

The home dynamic for the **Carlisle** is **0.952** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leyton Orient** is **-0.434.**

The offensive ability for the **Carlisle** is **1** and for the **Leyton Orient** is **0.307.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Carlisle** is **-1** and for the **Leyton Orient** is **1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Carlisle** and the red line for guest team, **Leyton Orient. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Carlisle |
26% |
33% |
25% |
16% |

Leyton Orient |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Carlisle ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.50 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.50 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
3.45 |
3.01 |

2-3 goals |
2.19 |
4.00 |
3.40 |

4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.19 |
3.62 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.26 |
3.71 |
3.46 |

Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.45 |
3.01 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
6.69 |
2.95 |

Un 2.5 |
2.86 |
2.63 |
3.70 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.19 |
3.62 |

Un 3.5 |
2.34 |
3.78 |
3.24 |

Goal-Goal |
2.75 |
2.62 |
3.93 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
5.98 |
2.87 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.57 |
2.96 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.21 |
5.98 |
2.86 |

####
Go to Top

###
Colchester vs Tranmere at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Colchester** and **Tranmere** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **23 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Colchester |
3.30 |
2.90 |
4.2 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.65 |
-4.6 |

Tranmere |
2.31 |
2.62 |
-5.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.37 |
2.20 |
3.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.83 |
-8.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Colchester, Over 2.5 (4.2 %, 3.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Colchester** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Colchester** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance** at home**.

Colchester,** at home**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Salford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Mar |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Carlisle |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Feb |
Exeter |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Tranmere** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tranmere** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance** as a guest**.

Tranmere,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 58.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Southend |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Leyton Orient |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Colchester** is **-0.743** and for the **Tranmere** is **0.77.**

The home dynamic for the **Colchester** is **0.079** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Tranmere** is **0.85.**

The offensive ability for the **Colchester** is **-1** and for the **Tranmere** is **0.268.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Colchester** is **0.357** and for the **Tranmere** is **0.957.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Colchester** and the red line for guest team, **Tranmere. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Colchester |
32% |
32% |
24% |
12% |

Tranmere |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Colchester** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Tranmere** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.26** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Colchester** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Tranmere** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.42 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |