2021 03 23 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Southend vs Walsall at 23 March 2021
Barrow vs Grimsby at 23 March 2021
Carlisle vs Leyton Orient at 23 March 2021
Colchester vs Tranmere at 23 March 2021
Mansfield vs Forest Green at 23 March 2021
Scunthorpe vs Bradford at 23 March 2021
Oldham vs Exeter at 23 March 2021


Southend vs Walsall at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Southend and Walsall for League Two (England), which will take place on 23 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Southend

3.05

2.87

2.1

Draw

3.11

3.65

-4.8

Walsall

2.48

2.65

-2.6

Over 2.5

2.37

2.26

2.1

Under 2.5

1.59

1.80

-7.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Southend, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Southend in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance at home.
Southend, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Scunthorpe

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Stevenage

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Tranmere

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Oldham

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Cheltenham

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Salford

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Feb

Forest Green

A

3

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N


Walsall in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance as a guest.
Walsall, as a guest, had 3 wins, 10 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 37.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Bolton

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Mar

Crawley Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Mar

Barrow

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Cambridge

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Exeter

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Bradford

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Feb

Newport County

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Stevenage

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Southend is -0.643 and for the Walsall is -0.945.
The home dynamic for the Southend is -0.984 and the dynamic as a guest for the Walsall is -0.168.
The offensive ability for the Southend is -0.863 and for the Walsall is -0.216.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Southend is 0.818 and for the Walsall is -0.429.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Southend and the red line for guest team, Walsall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Southend

34%

29%

25%

12%

Walsall

29%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southend to score 1 goals and Walsall to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southend to score 1.14 goals and Walsall to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.29

1

4.88

2-3

2.07

2

3.97

4+

4.78

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.29

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

4.78

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.58

3.07

2.53

2-3 goals

2.49

4.65

2.60

4+ goals

3.12

2.94

2.94

Ov 1.5

2.66

3.96

2.70

Un 1.5

3.58

3.07

2.53

Ov 2.5

2.33

6.21

2.44

Un 2.5

3.54

2.74

2.84

Ov 3.5

3.12

2.94

2.94

Un 3.5

2.82

3.88

2.58

Goal-Goal

3.01

2.67

3.41

No Goal

2.77

5.35

2.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.34

5.11

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.88

5.35

2.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Barrow vs Grimsby at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barrow and Grimsby for League Two (England), which will take place on 23 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barrow

1.94

2.20

-6.1

Draw

3.33

3.72

-3.1

Grimsby

4.17

3.61

3.7

Over 2.5

2.29

2.10

4.0

Under 2.5

1.62

1.91

-9.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Grimsby, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barrow in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance at home.
Barrow, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 43.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Crawley Town

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Mar

Cheltenham

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Mar

Walsall

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Mansfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Harrogate

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Oldham

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Morecambe

H

1

2

L

O

G


Grimsby in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance as a guest.
Grimsby, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 25.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Mansfield

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Mar

Tranmere

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Colchester

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Carlisle

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Forest Green

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Harrogate

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Crawley Town

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Barrow is 0.8 and for the Grimsby is -0.377.
The home dynamic for the Barrow is 0.159 and the dynamic as a guest for the Grimsby is -1.
The offensive ability for the Barrow is 0.339 and for the Grimsby is -0.255.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Barrow is 0.958 and for the Grimsby is 0.386.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barrow and the red line for guest team, Grimsby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barrow

23%

33%

26%

18%

Grimsby

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.39 goals and Grimsby to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Barrow to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.39 goals and Grimsby to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Barrow to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.75

1

5.18

2-3

1.99

2

3.91

4+

4.35

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.75

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.45

3.61

3.18

2-3 goals

2.07

4.05

3.69

4+ goals

2.23

3.29

4.04

Ov 1.5

2.12

3.77

3.79

Un 1.5

2.45

3.61

3.18

Ov 2.5

1.84

6.80

3.24

Un 2.5

2.68

2.64

4.02

Ov 3.5

2.23

3.29

4.04

Un 3.5

2.19

3.88

3.50

Goal-Goal

2.59

2.68

4.15

No Goal

1.89

6.49

3.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.64

3.16

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

6.49

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Carlisle vs Leyton Orient at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Carlisle and Leyton Orient for League Two (England), which will take place on 23 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Carlisle

2.08

2.36

-5.7

Draw

3.38

3.64

-2.1

Leyton Orient

3.62

3.31

2.6

Over 2.5

2.04

2.20

-3.6

Under 2.5

1.78

1.83

-1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leyton Orient (2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Carlisle in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance at home.
Carlisle, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Stevenage

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Mar

Mansfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Bradford

H

3

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Grimsby

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Morecambe

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Mar

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Oldham

H

1

3

L

O

G

23 Feb

Tranmere

H

2

3

L

O

G


Leyton Orient in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance as a guest.
Leyton Orient, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Newport County

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Scunthorpe

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Stevenage

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Exeter

A

0

4

L

O

N

02 Mar

Grimsby

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Tranmere

H

1

3

L

O

G

23 Feb

Bradford

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Port Vale

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Carlisle is -0.629 and for the Leyton Orient is 0.115.
The home dynamic for the Carlisle is 0.952 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leyton Orient is -0.434.
The offensive ability for the Carlisle is 1 and for the Leyton Orient is 0.307.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Carlisle is -1 and for the Leyton Orient is 1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Carlisle and the red line for guest team, Leyton Orient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Carlisle

26%

33%

25%

16%

Leyton Orient

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.44 goals and Leyton Orient to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.31 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.50

1

4.93

2-3

2.02

2

3.88

4+

4.61

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.50

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.45

3.01

2-3 goals

2.19

4.00

3.40

4+ goals

2.44

3.19

3.62

Ov 1.5

2.26

3.71

3.46

Un 1.5

2.65

3.45

3.01

Ov 2.5

1.95

6.69

2.95

Un 2.5

2.86

2.63

3.70

Ov 3.5

2.44

3.19

3.62

Un 3.5

2.34

3.78

3.24

Goal-Goal

2.75

2.62

3.93

No Goal

2.07

5.98

2.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.57

2.96

NG+Un 2.5

2.21

5.98

2.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Colchester vs Tranmere at 23 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Colchester and Tranmere for League Two (England), which will take place on 23 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Colchester

3.30

2.90

4.2

Draw

3.13

3.65

-4.6

Tranmere

2.31

2.62

-5.1

Over 2.5

2.37

2.20

3.3

Under 2.5

1.58

1.83

-8.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Colchester, Over 2.5 (4.2 %, 3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Colchester in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance at home.
Colchester, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Port Vale

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Salford

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Grimsby

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Harrogate

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Mar

Newport County

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Carlisle

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Forest Green

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Feb

Exeter

H

1

2

L

O

G


Tranmere in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance as a guest.
Tranmere, as a guest, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 58.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Exeter

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Mar

Grimsby

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Southend

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Crawley Town

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Newport County

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Leyton Orient

A

3

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Carlisle

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Feb

Oldham

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Colchester is -0.743 and for the Tranmere is 0.77.
The home dynamic for the Colchester is 0.079 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tranmere is 0.85.
The offensive ability for the Colchester is -1 and for the Tranmere is 0.268.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Colchester is 0.357 and for the Tranmere is 0.957.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Colchester and the red line for guest team, Tranmere.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Colchester

32%

32%

24%

12%

Tranmere

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Colchester to score 0.95 goals and Tranmere to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Colchester to score 1.16 goals and Tranmere to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.42

1

4.95

2-3

2.04

2

3.94

4+

4.61

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.42

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at