2021 03 26 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Yeovil vs Barnet at 27 March 2021
Dag and Red vs Torquay at 27 March 2021
Halifax vs Sutton at 27 March 2021
King’s Lynn vs Eastleigh at 27 March 2021
Maidenhead vs Altrincham at 27 March 2021
Solihull vs Aldershot at 27 March 2021
Stockport vs Hartlepool at 27 March 2021
Wrexham vs Bromley at 27 March 2021
Chesterfield vs Weymouth at 27 March 2021


Yeovil vs Barnet at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Yeovil and Barnet for Conference (England), which will take place on 27 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Yeovil

1.53

1.97

-14.6

Draw

4.16

4.05

0.7

Barnet

5.37

4.08

5.9

Over 2.5

1.71

1.97

-7.7

Under 2.5

2.09

2.03

1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Barnet, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 5.9 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Yeovil in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance at home.
Yeovil, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Notts County

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Notts County

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Woking

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Sutton

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Chesterfield

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Mar

Barnet

A

4

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Dag and Red

H

1

0

W

U

N


Barnet in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnet in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance as a guest.
Barnet, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 13.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Chesterfield

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Stockport

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Mar

Wrexham

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Yeovil

H

1

4

L

O

G

27 Feb

Hartlepool

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

King’s Lynn

A

1

5

L

O

G

20 Feb

Woking

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Yeovil is -0.552 and for the Barnet is -1.
The home dynamic for the Yeovil is 0.114 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barnet is -1.
The offensive ability for the Yeovil is 0.243 and for the Barnet is -0.209.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Yeovil is -1 and for the Barnet is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Yeovil and the red line for guest team, Barnet.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Yeovil

25%

23%

26%

26%

Barnet

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.97 goals and Barnet to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Yeovil to win by 1.19 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.52 goals and Barnet to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Yeovil to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.79

1

5.71

2-3

2.08

2

4.39

4+

3.92

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.79

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.14

2.97

2.90

2-3 goals

1.71

5.53

4.29

4+ goals

1.80

3.59

6.07

Ov 1.5

1.74

4.66

4.78

Un 1.5

3.14

2.97

2.90

Ov 2.5

1.54

7.15

4.75

Un 2.5

2.76

2.80

3.57

Ov 3.5

1.80

3.59

6.07

Un 3.5

2.04

4.23

3.67

Goal-Goal

2.02

3.06

5.62

No Goal

1.92

5.81

3.25

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.66

5.58

4.60

NG+Un 2.5

2.28

5.81

2.93


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Dag and Red vs Torquay at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dag and Red and Torquay for Conference (England), which will take place on 27 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dag and Red

2.78

3.09

-3.6

Draw

3.36

3.64

-2.3

Torquay

2.46

2.49

-0.5

Over 2.5

1.96

2.00

-1.0

Under 2.5

1.85

2.00

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dag and Red in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance at home.
Dag and Red, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Hartlepool

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Altrincham

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Weymouth

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Maidenhead

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Boreham Wood

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Mar

Solihull

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Yeovil

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Sutton

H

1

2

L

O

G


Torquay in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance as a guest.
Torquay, as a guest, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 64.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Maidenhead

A

1

4

L

O

G

13 Mar

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Hartlepool

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Solihull

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Halifax

H

2

3

L

O

G

09 Feb

Wealdstone

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Dag and Red is 0.372 and for the Torquay is 0.236.
The home dynamic for the Dag and Red is -0.303 and the dynamic as a guest for the Torquay is 0.594.
The offensive ability for the Dag and Red is 0.539 and for the Torquay is 0.245.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Dag and Red is -0.198 and for the Torquay is 0.607.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dag and Red and the red line for guest team, Torquay.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dag and Red

25%

42%

21%

12%

Torquay

24%

34%

25%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.19 goals and Torquay to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.2 goals and Torquay to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

4.07

1

5.38

2-3

1.99

2

3.92

4+

3.97

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.07

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.75

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.32

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

4.10

2.96

2-3 goals

3.33

3.54

2.40

4+ goals

3.60

3.45

2.31

Ov 1.5

3.42

3.51

2.37

Un 1.5

2.39

4.10

2.96

Ov 2.5

2.94

6.85

1.95

Un 2.5

3.25

2.48

3.46

Ov 3.5

3.60

3.45

2.31

Un 3.5

2.95

3.71

2.56

Goal-Goal

4.04

2.65

2.66

No Goal

2.36

7.18

2.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.04

5.86

2.00

NG+Un 2.5

2.33

7.18

2.48


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Halifax vs Sutton at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Halifax and Sutton for Conference (England), which will take place on 27 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Halifax

2.57

2.60

-0.4

Draw

3.14

3.69

-4.7

Sutton

2.63

2.91

-3.7

Over 2.5

2.09

2.02

1.7

Under 2.5

1.70

1.98

-8.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Halifax in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance at home.
Halifax, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Eastleigh

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Aldershot

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Solihull

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Notts County

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Wealdstone

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Hartlepool

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Torquay

A

3

2

W

O

G

16 Feb

Barnet

A

1

2

L

O

G


Sutton in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance as a guest.
Sutton, as a guest, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 74.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Bromley

A

3

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Stockport

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Chesterfield

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

King’s Lynn

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Yeovil

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Wrexham

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Bromley

H

3

2

W

O

G

23 Feb

Dag and Red

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Halifax is 0.596 and for the Sutton is 0.813.
The home dynamic for the Halifax is 0.284 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sutton is 0.963.
The offensive ability for the Halifax is 0.539 and for the Sutton is 0.664.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Halifax is -0.106 and for the Sutton is 0.388.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Halifax and the red line for guest team, Sutton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Halifax

25%

36%

23%

16%

Sutton

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.18 goals and Sutton to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.3 goals and Sutton to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.91

1

5.35

2-3

2.03

2

4.03

4+

3.97

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.91

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.19

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.53

3.71

2.98

2-3 goals

2.58

3.90

2.81

4+ goals

2.74

3.32

3.00

Ov 1.5

2.63

3.68

2.87

Un 1.5

2.53

3.71

2.98

Ov 2.5

2.28

6.53

2.46

Un 2.5

3.04

2.58

3.52

Ov 3.5

2.74

3.32

3.00

Un 3.5

2.56

3.84

2.87

Goal-Goal

3.14

2.69

3.23

No Goal

2.17

6.62

2.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.41

5.49

2.48

NG+Un 2.5

2.28

6.62

2.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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King’s Lynn vs Eastleigh at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between King’s Lynn and Eastleigh for Conference (England), which will take place on 27 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

King’s Lynn

2.61

2.72

-1.5

Draw

3.29

3.66

-3.1

Eastleigh

2.61

2.78

-2.3

Over 2.5

1.92

2.02

-2.6

Under 2.5

1.84

1.98

-3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

King’s Lynn in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance at home.
King’s Lynn, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Altrincham

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Mar

Torquay

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Mar

Hartlepool

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Sutton

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Wealdstone

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Woking

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Mar

Notts County

A

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Weymouth

H

2

2

D

O

G


Eastleigh in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance as a guest.
Eastleigh, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Stockport

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Mar

Halifax

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Wrexham

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Hartlepool

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Wealdstone

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Stockport

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the King’s Lynn is -0.973 and for the Eastleigh is -0.36.
The home dynamic for the King’s Lynn is -0.572 and the dynamic as a guest for the Eastleigh is -0.134.
The offensive ability for the King’s Lynn is -0.591 and for the Eastleigh is -0.209.
Finally, the defensive ability for the King’s Lynn is -1 and for the Eastleigh is 0.016.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, King’s Lynn and the red line for guest team, Eastleigh.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

King’s Lynn

25%

38%

23%

15%

Eastleigh

27%

34%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.25 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.27 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.92

1

5.32

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

3.97

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.92

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-