2021 03 26 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Oxford vs Lincoln at 26 March 2021
Peterboro vs Accrington at 27 March 2021
Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth at 27 March 2021
Wigan vs Ipswich at 27 March 2021
Hull vs Gillingham at 27 March 2021
Burton vs Fleetwood Town at 27 March 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Sunderland at 27 March 2021
Blackpool vs Plymouth at 27 March 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton at 27 March 2021
Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster at 27 March 2021


Oxford vs Lincoln at 26 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Oxford and Lincoln for League One (England), which will take place on 26 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oxford

2.41

2.51

-1.7

Draw

3.12

3.89

-6.3

Lincoln

3.08

2.91

1.9

Over 2.5

2.18

1.88

7.3

Under 2.5

1.69

2.13

-12.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lincoln, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 7.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oxford in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance at home.
Oxford, at home, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 54.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Northampton

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Blackpool

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Mar

Doncaster

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Mar

Swindon

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Charlton

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Peterboro

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

1

D

U

G


Lincoln in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance as a guest.
Lincoln, as a guest, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 68.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Sunderland

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Mar

Gillingham

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Mar

Rochdale

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Mar

Ipswich

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Crewe

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Fleetwood Town

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Plymouth

A

3

4

L

O

G

23 Feb

Swindon

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Oxford is -0.238 and for the Lincoln is -0.422.
The home dynamic for the Oxford is 0.164 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lincoln is 0.834.
The offensive ability for the Oxford is -0.591 and for the Lincoln is 0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Oxford is -0.235 and for the Lincoln is -0.563.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oxford and the red line for guest team, Lincoln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oxford

28%

26%

27%

19%

Lincoln

26%

37%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.24 goals and Lincoln to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.37 goals and Lincoln to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

4.13

1

5.85

2-3

2.09

2

4.39

4+

3.55

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.88

Un 1.5

4.13

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.13

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.55

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.56

3.41

2.35

2-3 goals

2.15

4.93

3.01

4+ goals

2.54

3.20

3.40

Ov 1.5

2.28

4.11

3.14

Un 1.5

3.56

3.41

2.35

Ov 2.5

2.03

6.05

2.92

Un 2.5

3.38

2.80

2.88

Ov 3.5

2.54

3.20

3.40

Un 3.5

2.48

4.29

2.75

Goal-Goal

2.52

2.90

3.86

No Goal

2.47

6.55

2.26

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.00

3.17

NG+Un 2.5

2.68

6.55

2.29


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Peterboro vs Accrington at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and Accrington for League One (England), which will take place on 27 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Peterboro

1.75

2.13

-10.2

Draw

3.80

3.75

0.4

Accrington

4.52

3.79

4.3

Over 2.5

1.80

2.13

-8.6

Under 2.5

2.03

1.88

3.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Accrington, Under 2.5 (0.4 %, 4.3 %, 3.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Peterboro in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 13 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 41 points, 80.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Blackpool

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Mar

Rochdale

A

3

3

D

O

G

16 Mar

Portsmouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Hull

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Burton

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Oxford

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Wigan

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Plymouth

A

3

0

W

O

N


Accrington in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance as a guest.
Accrington, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 43.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Wigan

H

3

1

W

O

G

17 Mar

Sunderland

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

3

L

O

G

09 Mar

Bristol Rvs

A

1

4

L

O

G

06 Mar

Swindon

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Ipswich

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Fleetwood Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Crewe

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Peterboro is -0.372 and for the Accrington is -0.378.
The home dynamic for the Peterboro is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Accrington is -0.115.
The offensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.678 and for the Accrington is 0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Peterboro is -0.235 and for the Accrington is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, Accrington.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Peterboro

21%

36%

26%

18%

Accrington

35%

35%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.77 goals and Accrington to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.4 goals and Accrington to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.65

1

5.00

2-3

2.00

2

3.89

4+

4.44

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.65

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.17

3.70

3.70

2-3 goals

2.04

3.98

3.85

4+ goals

2.32

3.31

3.75

Ov 1.5

2.12

3.74

3.82

Un 1.5

2.17

3.70

3.70

Ov 2.5

1.87

6.90

3.13

Un 2.5

2.45

2.66

4.66

Ov 3.5

2.32

3.31

3.75

Un 3.5

2.09

3.88

3.80

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.63

3.96

No Goal

1.75

6.61

3.62

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.66

2.98

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.61

3.55


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Portsmouth for League One (England), which will take place on 27 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Shrewsbury

3.40

2.73

7.2

Draw

3.26

3.68

-3.5

Portsmouth

2.18

2.76

-9.6

Over 2.5

2.35

2.05

6.2

Under 2.5

1.60

1.95

-11.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (7.2 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had 4 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Burton

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Hull

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Charlton

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Rochdale

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Fleetwood Town

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Bristol Rvs

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

H

4

2

W

O

G


Portsmouth in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance as a guest.
Portsmouth, as a guest, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 60.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Ipswich

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Mar

Peterboro

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Mar

Sunderland

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Northampton

A

1

4

L

O

G

02 Mar

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Gillingham

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Oxford

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Blackpool

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Shrewsbury is 0.283 and for the Portsmouth is -0.564.
The home dynamic for the Shrewsbury is -0.194 and the dynamic as a guest for the Portsmouth is 0.327.
The offensive ability for the Shrewsbury is 0.652 and for the Portsmouth is 0.118.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Shrewsbury is -0.604 and for the Portsmouth is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Portsmouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Shrewsbury

28%

33%

23%

16%

Portsmouth

25%

37%

26%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 0.92 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the guest team Portsmouth to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.27 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.86

1

5.32

2-3

2.00

2

3.92

4+

4.13

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.13

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.12

3.65

2.47

2-3 goals

2.70

4.06

2.61

4+ goals

2.47

3.10

3.67

Ov 1.5

2.62

3.69

2.88

Un 1.5

3.12

3.65

2.47

Ov 2.5

2.17

6.23

2.64

Un 2.5

3.62

2.65

2.89

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.10

3.67

Un 3.5

2.83

3.91

2.56

Goal-Goal

2.90

2.67

3.56

No Goal

2.56

6.52

2.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.24

5.31

2.74

NG+Un 2.5

2.75

6.52

2.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wigan vs Ipswich at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wigan and Ipswich for League One (England), which will take place on 27 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wigan

3.31

2.73

6.4

Draw

3.32

3.77

-3.6

Ipswich

2.19

2.71

-8.8

Over 2.5

2.14

1.97

4.0

Under 2.5

1.72

2.03

-8.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wigan, Over 2.5 (6.4 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wigan in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance at home.
Wigan, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 25.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Accrington

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Plymouth

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Charlton

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Peterboro

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Feb

Bristol Rvs

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Lincoln

H

1

2

L

O

G


Ipswich in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance as a guest.
Ipswich, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Portsmouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Mar

Fleetwood Town

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Plymouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Lincoln

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Gillingham

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Mar

Accrington

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Doncaster

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Hull

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Wigan is -0.148 and for the Ipswich is -0.271.
The home dynamic for the Wigan is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ipswich is -0.115.
The offensive ability for the Wigan is 0.652 and for the Ipswich is 0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wigan is -0.171 and for the Ipswich is -0.486.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wigan and the red line for guest team, Ipswich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wigan

29%

30%

24%

17%

Ipswich

24%

38%

25%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wigan to score 0.99 goals and Ipswich to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the guest team Ipswich to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.29 goals and Ipswich to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.00

1

5.56

2-3

2.06

2

4.13

4+

3.82

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.00

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.82

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-