# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Forest Green vs Bolton at 27 March 2021**** Morecambe vs Cheltenham at 27 March 2021**** Leyton Orient vs Oldham at 27 March 2021**** Grimsby vs Walsall at 27 March 2021**** Tranmere vs Mansfield at 27 March 2021**** Exeter vs Salford at 27 March 2021**** Crawley Town vs Port Vale at 27 March 2021**** Colchester vs Bradford at 27 March 2021**** Carlisle vs Cambridge at 27 March 2021**** Harrogate vs Southend at 27 March 2021**** Stevenage vs Barrow at 27 March 2021**

###
Forest Green vs Bolton at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Forest Green** and **Bolton** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **27 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Forest Green |
2.82 |
2.39 |
6.4 |

Draw |
3.26 |
3.62 |
-3.1 |

Bolton |
2.49 |
3.27 |
-9.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.22 |
-1.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.82 |
-3.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Forest Green (6.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Forest Green** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Forest Green** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance** at home**.

Forest Green,** at home**, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 58.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Mar |
Mansfield |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Harrogate |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Colchester |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Feb |
Southend |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** as a guest**.

Bolton,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Southend |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Forest Green** is **0.031** and for the **Bolton** is **1.**

The home dynamic for the **Forest Green** is **0.353** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bolton** is **0.613.**

The offensive ability for the **Forest Green** is **-0.217** and for the **Bolton** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Forest Green** is **-0.512** and for the **Bolton** is **0.388.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Forest Green** and the red line for guest team, **Bolton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Forest Green |
26% |
34% |
25% |
15% |

Bolton |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Forest Green** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Forest Green** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.44 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.44 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.67 |
3.42 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.24 |
3.97 |
3.31 |

4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.21 |
3.59 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.71 |
3.39 |

Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.42 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.80 |
2.90 |

Un 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.62 |
3.64 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.21 |
3.59 |

Un 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.75 |
3.19 |

Goal-Goal |
2.78 |
2.61 |
3.89 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
5.89 |
2.81 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.65 |
2.91 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.89 |
2.81 |

####
Go to Top

###
Morecambe vs Cheltenham at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Morecambe** and **Cheltenham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **27 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Morecambe |
3.11 |
2.63 |
5.9 |

Draw |
3.23 |
3.61 |
-3.3 |

Cheltenham |
2.33 |
2.92 |
-8.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.22 |
-0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.82 |
-4.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Morecambe (5.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Morecambe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Morecambe** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance** at home**.

Morecambe,** at home**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 60.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Carlisle |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Crawley Town |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Mansfield |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Cheltenham,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 63.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Mar |
Salford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Southend |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Scunthorpe |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Morecambe** is **0.256** and for the **Cheltenham** is **0.369.**

The home dynamic for the **Morecambe** is **0.443** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cheltenham** is **0.558.**

The offensive ability for the **Morecambe** is **0.678** and for the **Cheltenham** is **0.545.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Morecambe** is **-0.512** and for the **Cheltenham** is **0.497.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Morecambe** and the red line for guest team, **Cheltenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Morecambe |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

Cheltenham |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Morecambe** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.24** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Morecambe** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.42 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.78 |
3.40 |
2.89 |

2-3 goals |
2.50 |
3.95 |
2.88 |

4+ goals |
2.73 |
3.22 |
3.09 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.70 |
2.94 |

Un 1.5 |
2.78 |
3.40 |
2.89 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
6.72 |
2.51 |

Un 2.5 |
3.11 |
2.61 |
3.38 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.73 |
3.22 |
3.09 |

Un 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.72 |
2.89 |

Goal-Goal |
3.07 |
2.61 |
3.43 |

No Goal |
2.29 |
5.81 |
2.55 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
5.58 |
2.58 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
5.81 |
2.62 |

####
Go to Top

###
Leyton Orient vs Oldham at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leyton Orient** and **Oldham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **27 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leyton Orient |
2.15 |
2.25 |
-2.1 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.66 |
-3.1 |

Oldham |
3.44 |
3.55 |
-0.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.11 |
2.15 |
-0.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.87 |
-4.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leyton Orient** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leyton Orient** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance** at home**.

Leyton Orient,** at home**, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Mar |
Carlisle |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Mar |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Tranmere |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Oldham** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oldham** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance** as a guest**.

Oldham,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Mar |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Mar |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Mar |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Southend |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Leyton Orient** is **0.48** and for the **Oldham** is **0.04.**

The home dynamic for the **Leyton Orient** is **0.005** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Oldham** is **0.346.**

The offensive ability for the **Leyton Orient** is **0.278** and for the **Oldham** is **-0.155.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Leyton Orient** is **0.687** and for the **Oldham** is **0.388.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leyton Orient** and the red line for guest team, **Oldham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leyton Orient |
23% |
36% |
23% |
18% |

Oldham |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leyton Orient** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and the home team **Leyton Orient ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leyton Orient** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.62 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.42 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.42 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.34 |
3.73 |
3.29 |

2-3 goals |
2.23 |
3.72 |
3.53 |

4+ goals |
2.19 |
3.48 |
3.90 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.64 |
3.64 |

Un 1.5 |
2.34 |
3.73 |
3.29 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
7.18 |
3.05 |

Un 2.5 |
2.73 |
2.56 |
4.10 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.48 |
3.90 |

Un 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.72 |
3.44 |

Goal-Goal |
2.74 |
2.61 |
3.97 |

No Goal |
1.89 |
6.49 |
3.16 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.94 |
2.95 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.49 |
3.07 |

####
Go to Top

###
Grimsby vs Walsall at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Grimsby** and **Walsall** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **27 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Grimsby |
2.77 |
2.76 |
0.1 |

Draw |
3.08 |
3.62 |
-4.8 |

Walsall |
2.66 |
2.75 |
-1.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.28 |
0.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.78 |
-6.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Grimsby, Over 2.5 (0.1 %, 0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Grimsby** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Grimsby** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance** at home**.

Grimsby,** at home**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Mar |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Mansfield |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Mar |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Mar |
Carlisle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Mar |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** as a guest**.

Walsall,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 11 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Mar |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Mar |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Mar |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Grimsby** is **0.103** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.6.**

The home dynamic for the **Grimsby** is **-0.811** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Walsall** is **-0.06.**

The offensive ability for the **Grimsby** is **0.217** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.573.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Grimsby** is **0.318** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.016.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Grimsby** and the red line for guest team, **Walsall. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Grimsby |
33% |
30% |
26% |
12% |

Walsall |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Grimsby** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.18** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Grimsby** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.10 |
0-1 |
3.27 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.81 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.27 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.78 |

Gg |
2.12 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.