2021 03 26 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Forest Green vs Bolton at 27 March 2021
Morecambe vs Cheltenham at 27 March 2021
Leyton Orient vs Oldham at 27 March 2021
Grimsby vs Walsall at 27 March 2021
Tranmere vs Mansfield at 27 March 2021
Exeter vs Salford at 27 March 2021
Crawley Town vs Port Vale at 27 March 2021
Colchester vs Bradford at 27 March 2021
Carlisle vs Cambridge at 27 March 2021
Harrogate vs Southend at 27 March 2021
Stevenage vs Barrow at 27 March 2021


Forest Green vs Bolton at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Forest Green and Bolton for League Two (England), which will take place on 27 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Forest Green

2.82

2.39

6.4

Draw

3.26

3.62

-3.1

Bolton

2.49

3.27

-9.6

Over 2.5

2.13

2.22

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.70

1.82

-3.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Forest Green (6.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Forest Green in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Forest Green in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance at home.
Forest Green, at home, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 58.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Mansfield

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Cambridge

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Mar

Harrogate

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Mar

Morecambe

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Mar

Grimsby

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Stevenage

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Colchester

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Feb

Southend

H

1

3

L

O

G


Bolton in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance as a guest.
Bolton, as a guest, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Walsall

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Port Vale

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Cambridge

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Bradford

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Oldham

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Scunthorpe

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Southend

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Forest Green is 0.031 and for the Bolton is 1.
The home dynamic for the Forest Green is 0.353 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bolton is 0.613.
The offensive ability for the Forest Green is -0.217 and for the Bolton is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Forest Green is -0.512 and for the Bolton is 0.388.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Forest Green and the red line for guest team, Bolton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Forest Green

26%

34%

25%

15%

Bolton

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Forest Green to score 1.11 goals and Bolton to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Forest Green to score 1.29 goals and Bolton to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.44

1

4.85

2-3

2.02

2

3.86

4+

4.72

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.44

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.42

3.00

2-3 goals

2.24

3.97

3.31

4+ goals

2.44

3.21

3.59

Ov 1.5

2.30

3.71

3.39

Un 1.5

2.67

3.42

3.00

Ov 2.5

1.97

6.80

2.90

Un 2.5

2.91

2.62

3.64

Ov 3.5

2.44

3.21

3.59

Un 3.5

2.38

3.75

3.19

Goal-Goal

2.78

2.61

3.89

No Goal

2.11

5.89

2.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

5.65

2.91

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

5.89

2.81


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Morecambe vs Cheltenham at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Morecambe and Cheltenham for League Two (England), which will take place on 27 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Morecambe

3.11

2.63

5.9

Draw

3.23

3.61

-3.3

Cheltenham

2.33

2.92

-8.7

Over 2.5

2.18

2.22

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.67

1.82

-4.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Morecambe (5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Morecambe in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Morecambe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance at home.
Morecambe, at home, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 60.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Harrogate

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Newport County

H

1

3

L

O

G

09 Mar

Forest Green

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Mar

Carlisle

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Crawley Town

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Mansfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Salford

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Barrow

A

2

1

W

O

G


Cheltenham in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance as a guest.
Cheltenham, as a guest, had 10 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Salford

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Mar

Barrow

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Mar

Exeter

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Mar

Mansfield

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Port Vale

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Mar

Southend

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Scunthorpe

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Cambridge

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Morecambe is 0.256 and for the Cheltenham is 0.369.
The home dynamic for the Morecambe is 0.443 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cheltenham is 0.558.
The offensive ability for the Morecambe is 0.678 and for the Cheltenham is 0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Morecambe is -0.512 and for the Cheltenham is 0.497.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Morecambe and the red line for guest team, Cheltenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Morecambe

28%

35%

23%

14%

Cheltenham

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.02 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.22 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.63

0-1

3.42

1

4.85

2-3

2.04

2

3.91

4+

4.63

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.42

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.78

3.40

2.89

2-3 goals

2.50

3.95

2.88

4+ goals

2.73

3.22

3.09

Ov 1.5

2.57

3.70

2.94

Un 1.5

2.78

3.40

2.89

Ov 2.5

2.21

6.72

2.51

Un 2.5

3.11

2.61

3.38

Ov 3.5

2.73

3.22

3.09

Un 3.5

2.60

3.72

2.89

Goal-Goal

3.07

2.61

3.43

No Goal

2.29

5.81

2.55

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.31

5.58

2.58

NG+Un 2.5

2.41

5.81

2.62


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leyton Orient vs Oldham at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leyton Orient and Oldham for League Two (England), which will take place on 27 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leyton Orient

2.15

2.25

-2.1

Draw

3.29

3.66

-3.1

Oldham

3.44

3.55

-0.9

Over 2.5

2.11

2.15

-0.9

Under 2.5

1.73

1.87

-4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leyton Orient in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance at home.
Leyton Orient, at home, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Carlisle

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Newport County

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Scunthorpe

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Mar

Stevenage

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Exeter

A

0

4

L

O

N

02 Mar

Grimsby

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Tranmere

H

1

3

L

O

G

23 Feb

Bradford

A

0

1

L

U

N


Oldham in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance as a guest.
Oldham, as a guest, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Exeter

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Bradford

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Mar

Scunthorpe

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Cambridge

H

2

4

L

O

G

09 Mar

Port Vale

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Southend

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Bolton

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Carlisle

A

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Leyton Orient is 0.48 and for the Oldham is 0.04.
The home dynamic for the Leyton Orient is 0.005 and the dynamic as a guest for the Oldham is 0.346.
The offensive ability for the Leyton Orient is 0.278 and for the Oldham is -0.155.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leyton Orient is 0.687 and for the Oldham is 0.388.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leyton Orient and the red line for guest team, Oldham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leyton Orient

23%

36%

23%

18%

Oldham

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leyton Orient to score 1.37 goals and Oldham to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Leyton Orient to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leyton Orient to score 1.37 goals and Oldham to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.62

1

4.95

2-3

2.01

2

3.89

4+

4.42

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.62

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.42

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.34

3.73

3.29

2-3 goals

2.23

3.72

3.53

4+ goals

2.19

3.48

3.90

Ov 1.5

2.22

3.64

3.64

Un 1.5

2.34

3.73

3.29

Ov 2.5

1.88

7.18

3.05

Un 2.5

2.73

2.56

4.10

Ov 3.5

2.19

3.48

3.90

Un 3.5

2.27

3.72

3.44

Goal-Goal

2.74

2.61

3.97

No Goal

1.89

6.49

3.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

5.94

2.95

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

6.49

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Grimsby vs Walsall at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Grimsby and Walsall for League Two (England), which will take place on 27 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Grimsby

2.77

2.76

0.1

Draw

3.08

3.62

-4.8

Walsall

2.66

2.75

-1.2

Over 2.5

2.33

2.28

0.9

Under 2.5

1.59

1.78

-6.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Grimsby, Over 2.5 (0.1 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Grimsby in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance at home.
Grimsby, at home, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Barrow

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Mansfield

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Mar

Tranmere

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Colchester

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Mar

Carlisle

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Forest Green

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Harrogate

A

0

1

L

U

N


Walsall in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance as a guest.
Walsall, as a guest, had 3 wins, 11 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Mar

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Bolton

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Mar

Crawley Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Mar

Barrow

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Cambridge

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Exeter

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Bradford

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Feb

Newport County

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Grimsby is 0.103 and for the Walsall is -0.6.
The home dynamic for the Grimsby is -0.811 and the dynamic as a guest for the Walsall is -0.06.
The offensive ability for the Grimsby is 0.217 and for the Walsall is -0.573.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Grimsby is 0.318 and for the Walsall is -0.016.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Grimsby and the red line for guest team, Walsall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Grimsby

33%

30%

26%

12%

Walsall

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.07 goals and Walsall to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.16 goals and Walsall to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.27

1

4.83

2-3

2.05

2

3.91

4+

4.81

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.27

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.