2021 03 26 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sp Gijon vs Alcorcon at 26 March 2021
Castellon vs Espanol at 26 March 2021
Oviedo vs Ponferradina at 27 March 2021
Logrones vs Zaragoza at 27 March 2021
Almeria vs Leganes at 27 March 2021
Vallecano vs Mirandes at 27 March 2021
Cartagena vs Malaga at 27 March 2021
Tenerife vs Las Palmas at 28 March 2021
Lugo vs Sabadell at 28 March 2021
Girona vs Albacete at 28 March 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Mallorca at 29 March 2021


Sp Gijon vs Alcorcon at 26 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Gijon and Alcorcon for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 26 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sp Gijon

1.97

1.85

3.3

Draw

2.89

3.95

-9.3

Alcorcon

4.70

4.88

-0.8

Over 2.5

3.04

2.14

13.8

Under 2.5

1.36

1.88

-20.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sp Gijon, Over 2.5 (3.3 %, 13.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sp Gijon in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Gijon in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Gijon’s performance at home.
Sp Gijon, at home, had 9 wins, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 33 points, 73.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Gijon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Sabadell

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Mar

Mallorca

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Ponferradina

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Feb

Espanol

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Albacete

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Malaga

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Logrones

A

4

0

W

O

N

31 Jan

Cartagena

H

0

0

D

U

N


Alcorcon in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alcorcon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Alcorcon’s performance as a guest.
Alcorcon, as a guest, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alcorcon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Vallecano

H

0

3

L

O

N

15 Mar

Almeria

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Mar

Mirandes

H

4

0

W

O

N

28 Feb

Tenerife

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Feb

Zaragoza

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Logrones

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Feb

Ponferradina

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Malaga

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Sp Gijon is 0.596 and for the Alcorcon is 0.111.
The home dynamic for the Sp Gijon is 0.851 and the dynamic as a guest for the Alcorcon is -0.41.
The offensive ability for the Sp Gijon is 1 and for the Alcorcon is 0.064.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sp Gijon is 0.171 and for the Alcorcon is 0.891.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Gijon and the red line for guest team, Alcorcon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sp Gijon

18%

34%

27%

22%

Alcorcon

40%

36%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Gijon to score 1.16 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.82 goals in the game and the home team Sp Gijon to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Gijon to score 1.52 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Sp Gijon to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.66

1

4.98

2-3

1.95

2

3.86

4+

4.65

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.66

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.98

3.79

4.33

2-3 goals

1.76

4.23

5.12

4+ goals

1.89

3.58

5.24

Ov 1.5

1.80

4.02

5.16

Un 1.5

1.98

3.79

4.33

Ov 2.5

1.58

7.80

4.22

Un 2.5

2.16

2.76

5.72

Ov 3.5

1.89

3.58

5.24

Un 3.5

1.83

4.07

4.82

Goal-Goal

2.34

2.70

4.94

No Goal

1.53

7.10

4.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.76

6.13

3.72

NG+Un 2.5

1.67

7.10

4.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Castellon vs Espanol at 26 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Castellon and Espanol for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 26 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Castellon

6.18

2.70

20.9

Draw

3.61

3.46

1.2

Espanol

1.61

2.93

-28.0

Over 2.5

2.36

2.49

-2.2

Under 2.5

1.61

1.67

-2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Castellon, Draw (20.9 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Castellon in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Castellon in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance at home.
Castellon, at home, had 7 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Castellon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Lugo

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Sabadell

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Leganes

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Las Palmas

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

Girona

A

1

2

L

O

G

15 Feb

Fuenlabrada

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Mirandes

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Almeria

A

1

3

L

O

G


Espanol in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Espanol in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Espanol’s performance as a guest.
Espanol, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Espanol was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Logrones

H

4

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Mirandes

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Mar

Oviedo

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Sp Gijon

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Sabadell

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Mallorca

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Feb

Lugo

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Vallecano

H

2

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Castellon is 0.103 and for the Espanol is 0.573.
The home dynamic for the Castellon is -0.194 and the dynamic as a guest for the Espanol is 0.253.
The offensive ability for the Castellon is 0.13 and for the Espanol is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Castellon is 0.318 and for the Espanol is 0.016.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Castellon and the red line for guest team, Espanol.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Castellon

30%

37%

23%

10%

Espanol

33%

35%

22%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Castellon to score 0.62 goals and Espanol to score 1.56 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the guest team Espanol to win by 0.94 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.13 goals and Espanol to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.07

1

4.41

2-3

2.02

2

3.69

4+

5.65

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.07

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.49

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

5.65

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.29

3.10

2-3 goals

2.62

3.84

2.80

4+ goals

3.11

2.95

2.95

Ov 1.5

2.73

3.56

2.84

Un 1.5

2.67

3.29

3.10

Ov 2.5

2.36

6.68

2.35

Un 2.5

3.02

2.62

3.49

Ov 3.5

3.11

2.95

2.95

Un 3.5

2.64

3.60

2.91

Goal-Goal

3.41

2.47

3.31

No Goal

2.30

5.36

2.64

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.47

5.63

2.40

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

5.36

2.74


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Oviedo vs Ponferradina at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Oviedo and Ponferradina for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 27 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oviedo

1.98

2.25

-6.1

Draw

3.19

3.58

-3.4

Ponferradina

4.04

3.62

2.9

Over 2.5

2.67

2.35

5.1

Under 2.5

1.46

1.74

-11.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (2.9 %, 5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oviedo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance at home.
Oviedo, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Mallorca

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Mar

Leganes

H

1

3

L

O

G

05 Mar

Espanol

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Feb

Fuenlabrada

A

2

2

D

O

G

15 Feb

Lugo

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Cartagena

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Albacete

H

0

1

L

U

N


Ponferradina in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance as a guest.
Ponferradina, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Mar

Almeria

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Mar

Cartagena

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Mar

Sp Gijon

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Vallecano

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Mirandes

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Tenerife

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Feb

Alcorcon

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Jan

Zaragoza

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Oviedo is 0.166 and for the Ponferradina is 0.244.
The home dynamic for the Oviedo is -0.164 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ponferradina is -0.217.
The offensive ability for the Oviedo is 0.539 and for the Ponferradina is 0.664.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Oviedo is -0.106 and for the Ponferradina is -0.563.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oviedo and the red line for guest team, Ponferradina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oviedo

25%

35%

25%

15%

Ponferradina

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.23 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.99 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.3 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.25

1

4.59

2-3

2.00

2

3.75

4+

5.24

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.25

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.36

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

5.24

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

3.42

3.31

2-3 goals

2.11

3.87

3.72

4+ goals

2.30

3.18

3.98

Ov 1.5

2.16

3.65

3.79

Un 1.5

2.46

3.42

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.85

7.05

3.16

Un 2.5

2.67

2.63

4.08

Ov 3.5

2.30

3.18

3.98

Un 3.5

2.24

3.68

3.56

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.53

4.20

No Goal

1.94

5.77

3.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

5.83

3.07

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

5.77

3.16


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Logrones vs Zaragoza at 27 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Logrones and Zaragoza for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 27 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Logrones

3.22

2.14

15.7

Draw

2.86

3.65

-7.6

Zaragoza

2.43

3.86

-15.2

Over 2.5

2.73

2.29

7.0

Under 2.5

1.43

1.78

-13.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Logrones, Over 2.5 (15.7 %, 7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Logrones in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Logrones in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance at home.
Logrones, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Logrones was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Mar

Espanol

A

0

4

L

O

N

14 Mar

Malaga

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Albacete

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Feb

Lugo

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Alcorcon

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Sp Gijon

H

0

4

L

O

N

01 Feb

Sabadell

A

0

0

D

U

N


Zaragoza in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance as a guest.
Zaragoza, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Mar

Mirandes

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Mar

Vallecano

A

2

3

L

O

G

06 Mar

Tenerife

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Oviedo

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Feb

Alcorcon

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Feb

Sabadell

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Malaga

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Jan

Ponferradina

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Logrones is -0.794 and for the Zaragoza is -0.156.
The home dynamic for the Logrones is -0.572 and the dynamic as a guest for the Zaragoza is -0.972.
The offensive ability for the Logrones is -0.591 and for the Zaragoza is 0.245.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Logrones is -1 and for the Zaragoza is 0.093.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Logrones and the red line for guest team, Zaragoza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Logrones

23%

35%

26%

16%

Zaragoza

37%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Logrones to score 0.88 goals and Zaragoza to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.95 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Logrones to score 1.35 goals and Zaragoza to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Logrones to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.36

1

4.69

2-3

1.98

2

3.76

4+

5.00

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.36

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

5.00

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-