2021 03 27 German BBL



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Hamburg Towers vs Bayern Munchen at 27 March 2021
Crailsheim Merlins vs Giessen 46ers at 27 March 2021
Brose Bamberg vs Ratiopharm Ulm at 27 March 2021
Rasta Vechta vs Göttingen at 27 March 2021
Alba Berlin vs Mitteldeutscher at 28 March 2021
TG s.Oliver Wurzburg vs Bonn at 28 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Hamburg Towers vs Bayern Munchen at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hamburg Towers and Bayern Munchen for German BBL, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Hamburg Towers

2.75

4.58

Bayern Munchen

1.47

1.28

Hamburg Towers HC

+4.5

8.00

Bayern Munchen HC

-4.5

-8.00

Point Line

157.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hamburg Towers are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 19

A

BV Chemnitz 99

L

0

0

10

10

0

0

Mar 23

H

ALBA Berlin

W

90

75

13

9

100

73

Mar 20

H

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

W

74

63

12

9

70

62

Mar 13

H

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

105

78

11

9

97

78

Mar 3

A

Ratiopharm Ulm

L

76

89

10

9

80

86

Feb 28

H

MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg

L

67

73

10

8

73

70

Feb 14

A

Giessen 46ers

W

95

78

10

7

84

78

Feb 12

H

Telekom Baskets Bonn

L

71

78

9

7

70

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayern Munchen are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 23

H

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

85

66

21

4

78

66

Mar 21

A

HARKO Merlins Crailsheim

W

79

74

20

4

80

72

Mar 16

H

Telekom Baskets Bonn

W

78

69

19

4

78

70

Mar 14

H

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

W

108

102

18

4

107

91

Mar 9

A

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

W

94

79

17

4

88

78

Mar 7

A

SC Rasta Vechta

W

93

78

16

4

89

83

Feb 28

H

s.Oliver Baskets

W

97

76

15

4

95

80

Feb 14

A

BV Chemnitz 99

L

83

85

14

4

78

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hamburg Towers and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayern Munchen.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayern Munchen and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hamburg Towers.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Hamburg Towers (in the first graph) and by Bayern Munchen in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Hamburg Towers will expected to score 79 points and the Bayern Munchen 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Hamburg Towers

Bayern Munchen

FG%

0.55

0.56

ASS

18.60

18.60

DRB

21.00

22.30

AST-TO

1.55

1.58

TRB

29.90

31.60

FTM

14.20

16.80

BL

1.70

3.80

FTA

19.30

21.10

PF-Fewer

21.00

21.10

ST

9.10

7.30

TO-Fewer

12.00

11.80

Ftper

0.74

0.80

ORBper

0.43

0.42

ORB

9.00

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Crailsheim Merlins vs Giessen 46ers at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crailsheim Merlins and Giessen 46ers for German BBL, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Crailsheim Merlins

1.13

1.47

Giessen 46ers

6.5

3.14

Crailsheim Merlins HC

-13.5

-5.50

Giessen 46ers HC

+13.5

5.50

Point Line

175.5

169.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Crailsheim Merlins are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

H

Bayern Munich

L

74

79

17

7

80

75

Mar 14

H

MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg

W

68

58

17

5

74

56

Mar 5

A

Medi Bayreuth

L

78

97

16

6

77

98

Mar 3

H

s.Oliver Baskets

L

84

94

16

5

83

99

Feb 28

A

ALBA Berlin

L

62

100

16

4

69

98

Feb 14

A

BG Goettingen

W

109

81

16

3

99

83

Feb 12

H

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

W

75

69

15

3

70

68

Feb 9

H

ALBA Berlin

L

77

101

14

3

86

99

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Giessen 46ers are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 20

H

s.Oliver Baskets

L

73

74

4

20

72

78

Mar 13

A

Fraport Skyliners

L

79

82

4

19

81

89

Mar 6

H

Telekom Baskets Bonn

L

75

92

4

18

74

94

Mar 3

A

Mitteldeutscher BC

L

81

102

4

16

75

102

Feb 27

H

Medi Bayreuth

W

97

92

4

15

96

93

Feb 24

A

s.Oliver Baskets

L

82

101

3

16

81

107

Feb 14

H

Hamburg Towers

L

78

95

3

15

83

94

Feb 12

A

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

W

97

93

3

14

96

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Crailsheim Merlins and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Giessen 46ers.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Giessen 46ers and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Crailsheim Merlins.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Crailsheim Merlins (in the first graph) and by Giessen 46ers in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Crailsheim Merlins will expected to score 90 points and the Giessen 46ers 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 173.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Crailsheim Merlins

Giessen 46ers

FG%

0.56

0.54

ASS

18.50

17.90

DRB

22.50

20.60

AST-TO

1.28

1.23

TRB

30.80

29.90

FTM

17.80

11.80

BL

2.40

2.90

FTA

23.10

14.40

PF-Fewer

22.60

20.60

ST

7.20

5.90

TO-Fewer

14.50

14.60

Ftper

0.77

0.82

ORBper

0.37

0.45

ORB

8.30

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Brose Bamberg vs Ratiopharm Ulm at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brose Bamberg and Ratiopharm Ulm for German BBL, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Brose Bamberg

1.83

1.75

Ratiopharm Ulm

2.02

2.33

Brose Bamberg HC

-1.5

-2.50

Ratiopharm Ulm HC

+1.5

2.50

Point Line

164.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brose Bamberg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 20

A

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

100

89

12

11

92

89

Mar 13

A

Telekom Baskets Bonn

W

86

82

11

11

85

84

Feb 28

H

Fraport Skyliners

W

78

62

10

11

80

67

Feb 14

H

ALBA Berlin

W

76

67

9

11

85

66

Feb 12

A

BV Chemnitz 99

L

82

85

8

11

78

89

Feb 9

A

Fraport Skyliners

W

86

76

8

10

88

82

Feb 7

H

Bayern Munich

L

92

93

7

10

99

88

Feb 3

H

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

95

80

7

9

88

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ratiopharm Ulm are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 20

H

MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg

L

77

83

14

10

84

80

Mar 13

A

SC Rasta Vechta

L

77

92

14

9

74

97

Mar 7

H

ALBA Berlin

L

76

84

14

8

85

82

Mar 3

H

Hamburg Towers

W

89

76

14

7

95

76

Feb 27

H

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

102

73

13

7

94

73

Feb 14

A

Fraport Skyliners

W

87

68

12

7

89

74

Feb 12

H

BG Goettingen

W

93

64

11

7

84

65

Feb 9

H

Bayern Munich

L

77

81

10

7

83

77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brose Bamberg and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ratiopharm Ulm.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ratiopharm Ulm and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brose Bamberg.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brose Bamberg (in the first graph) and by Ratiopharm Ulm in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brose Bamberg will expected to score 81 points and the Ratiopharm Ulm 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Brose Bamberg

Ratiopharm Ulm

FG%

0.56

0.57

ASS

19.90

17.80

DRB

22.20

21.50

AST-TO

1.42

1.37

TRB

31.80

28.30

FTM

13.90

21.80

BL

3.00

2.30

FTA

17.20

25.60

PF-Fewer

19.10

20.00

ST

6.50

6.90

TO-Fewer

14.00

13.00

Ftper

0.81

0.85

ORBper

0.43

0.32

ORB

9.60

6.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Rasta Vechta vs Göttingen at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rasta Vechta and Göttingen for German BBL, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Rasta Vechta

2.1

1.96

Göttingen

1.78

2.04

Rasta Vechta HC

+1.5

-1.50

Göttingen HC

-1.5

1.50

Point Line

170.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Rasta Vechta are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 19

A

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

L

71

101

4

20

70

90

Mar 13

H

Ratiopharm Ulm

W

92

77

4

19

97

74

Mar 7

H

Bayern Munich

L

78

93

3

19

84

88

Mar 4

A

Fraport Skyliners

L

75

84

3

18

77

91

Feb 27

A

Telekom Baskets Bonn

L

89

94

3

17

88

96

Feb 14

H

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

L

71

80

3

16

67

79

Feb 12

H

MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg

L

66

84

3

15

72

81

Feb 10

A

BV Chemnitz 99

L

77

89

3

14

73

93

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Göttingen are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

H

Telekom Baskets Bonn

W

102

99

8

15

101

101

Mar 14

A

ALBA Berlin

L

58

89

7

15

65

87

Mar 7

H

Fraport Skyliners

L

89

93

7

14

91

101

Mar 3

A

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

W

102

91

7

13

96

90

Feb 14

H

HARKO Merlins Crailsheim

L

81

109

6

13

82

106

Feb 12

A

Ratiopharm Ulm

L

64

93

6

12

68

90

Feb 10

A

Medi Bayreuth

W

82

80

6

11

81

80

Feb 6

A

s.Oliver Baskets

W

87

82

5

11

86

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Rasta Vechta and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Göttingen.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Göttingen and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Rasta Vechta.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Rasta Vechta (in the first graph) and by Göttingen in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Rasta Vechta will expected to score 85 points and the Göttingen 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Rasta Vechta

Göttingen

FG%

0.52

0.53

ASS

18.10

18.20

DRB

21.60

21.50

AST-TO

1.16

1.26

TRB

30.20

29.90

FTM

16.10

15.90

BL

1.90

2.70

FTA

20.60

20.60

PF-Fewer

22.10

22.20

ST

5.00

6.50

TO-Fewer

15.60

14.50

Ftper

0.78

0.77

ORBper

0.40

0.39

ORB

8.60

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Alba Berlin vs Mitteldeutscher at 28 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alba Berlin and Mitteldeutscher for German BBL, which will take place on 28 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Alba Berlin

0.05

1.38

Mitteldeutscher

11

3.63

Alba Berlin HC

-17.5

-6.50

Mitteldeutscher HC

+17.5

6.50

Point Line

173.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 23

A

Hamburg Towers

L

75

90

20

4

80

89

Mar 21

A

Fraport Skyliners

W

94

60

20

3

96

65

Mar 16

A

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

96

82

19

3

89

82

Mar 14

H

BG Goettingen

W

89

58

18

3