2021 03 27 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Aris vs AEK Athens at 27 March 2021
Promitheas vs Ionikos Nikaias at 27 March 2021
Larissa BC vs Peristeri at 28 March 2021
PAOK vs Kolossos Rhodes at 28 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Aris vs AEK Athens at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and AEK Athens for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aris

2.6

3.62

AEK Athens

1.52

1.38

Aris HC

+3.5

6.50

AEK Athens HC

-3.5

-6.50

Point Line

151.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 20

H

P.A.O.K.

L

71

77

6

11

L 1

68

76

Mar 10

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

76

54

6

10

W 2

76

57

Mar 6

H

Larisa

W

70

52

5

10

W 1

67

54

Feb 28

A

Panathinaikos

L

72

94

4

10

L 2

78

82

Feb 6

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

89

94

4

9

L 1

91

89

Jan 23

H

Messolonghi

W

77

48

4

8

W 1

73

51

Jan 17

H

Panathinaikos

L

75

93

3

8

L 5

81

82

Jan 9

H

Peristeri

L

71

84

3

7

L 4

72

89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 20

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

100

97

13

4

W 4

100

102

Mar 13

A

P.A.O.K.

W

87

85

12

4

W 3

84

83

Mar 6

H

Messolonghi

W

98

76

11

4

W 2

93

80

Feb 6

H

Peristeri

W

91

59

10

4

W 1

93

62

Jan 30

A

Larisa

L

75

76

9

4

L 1

72

78

Jan 27

H

P.A.O.K.

W

76

56

9

3

W 2

73

55

Jan 23

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

81

74

8

3

W 1

76

73

Jan 16

H

Promitheas Patras

L

75

82

7

3

L 2

75

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aris (in the first graph) and by AEK Athens in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aris will expected to score 74 points and the AEK Athens 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aris

AEK Athens

FG%

0.51

0.54

ASS

13.70

17.60

DRB

21.70

22.20

AST-TO

1.02

1.42

TRB

31.20

32.40

FTM

16.60

15.80

BL

1.70

3.10

FTA

22.50

21.00

PF-Fewer

21.90

22.60

ST

8.10

6.60

TO-Fewer

13.40

12.40

Ftper

0.74

0.75

ORBper

0.44

0.46

ORB

9.50

10.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Promitheas vs Ionikos Nikaias at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Promitheas and Ionikos Nikaias for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Promitheas

1.21

1.47

Ionikos Nikaias

4.6

3.11

Promitheas HC

-8.5

-5.50

Ionikos Nikaias HC

+8.5

5.50

Point Line

158.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 6

A

P.A.O.K.

L

78

81

9

5

L 1

75

80

Feb 6

H

Larisa

W

81

63

9

4

W 3

78

65

Jan 31

A

Panathinaikos

W

80

78

8

4

W 2

86

68

Jan 23

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

90

88

7

4

W 1

92

83

Jan 20

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

72

75

6

4

L 1

74

71

Jan 16

A

AEK Athens

W

82

75

6

3

W 2

87

70

Jan 10

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

85

61

5

3

W 1

85

64

Jan 6

A

Larisa

L

81

85

4

3

L 1

78

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

H

Larisa

W

83

76

7

11

W 1

80

78

Mar 13

A

Panathinaikos

L

74

98

6

11

L 2

80

86

Mar 7

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

88

89

6

10

L 1

90

84

Feb 28

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

78

75

6

9

W 2

78

79

Feb 6

H

Messolonghi

W

100

85

5

9

W 1

94

90

Jan 30

A

Peristeri

L

70

86

4

9

L 3

71

91

Jan 23

A

AEK Athens

L

74

81

4

8

L 2

79

75

Jan 9

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

74

94

4

7

L 1

74

93

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Promitheas (in the first graph) and by Ionikos Nikaias in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Promitheas will expected to score 80 points and the Ionikos Nikaias 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Promitheas

Ionikos Nikaias

FG%

0.53

0.51

ASS

16.60

15.30

DRB

22.10

21.70

AST-TO

1.29

1.16

TRB

28.00

30.40

FTM

14.10

13.00

BL

3.10

1.60

FTA

20.00

17.20

PF-Fewer

18.60

20.60

ST

7.10

7.20

TO-Fewer

12.90

13.20

Ftper

0.71

0.76

ORBper

0.27

0.40

ORB

5.90

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Larissa BC vs Peristeri at 28 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Larissa BC and Peristeri for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 28 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Larissa BC

2.3

3.63

Peristeri

1.65

1.38

Larissa BC HC

+2.5

6.50

Peristeri HC

-2.5

-6.50

Point Line

148.5

149.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

76

83

5

13

L 1

72

82

Mar 14

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

82

73

5

12

W 1

82

72

Mar 6

A

Aris

L

52

70

4

12

L 3

52

72

Feb 28

H

P.A.O.K.

L

88

91

4

11

L 2

85

89

Feb 6

A

Promitheas Patras

L

63

81

4

10

L 1

63

86

Jan 30

H

AEK Athens

W

76

75

4

9

W 1

81

70

Jan 24

H

Panathinaikos

L

89

98

3

9

L 2

96

86

Jan 11

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

58

66

3

8

L 1

60

62

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 22

H

Panathinaikos

L

68

74

9

9

L 3

73

65

Mar 14

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

71

88

9

8

L 2

73

83

Mar 6

H

Iraklis B.C.

L

70

79

9

7

L 1

70

83

Feb 27

A

Messolonghi

W

70

63

9

6

W 1

66

66

Feb 6

A

AEK Athens

L

59

91

8

6

L 1

63

84

Jan 30

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

86

70

8

5

W 1

81

69

Jan 23

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

65

80

7

5

L 1

65

79

Jan 9

A

Aris

W

84

71

7

4

W 2

84

73

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Larissa BC and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Larissa BC.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Larissa BC (in the first graph) and by Peristeri in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Larissa BC will expected to score 75 points and the Peristeri 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 151.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Larissa BC

Peristeri

FG%

0.54

0.49

ASS

13.90

16.30

DRB

22.20

24.30

AST-TO

0.88

1.21

TRB

30.60

32.40

FTM

13.90

15.20

BL

1.80

2.60

FTA

18.30

19.50

PF-Fewer

22.20

20.30

ST

6.70

5.80

TO-Fewer

15.80

13.50

Ftper

0.76

0.78

ORBper

0.38

0.33

ORB

8.40

8.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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PAOK vs Kolossos Rhodes at 28 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Kolossos Rhodes for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 28 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

PAOK

1.36

1.69

Kolossos Rhodes

3.3

2.45

PAOK HC

-6.5

-3.50

Kolossos Rhodes HC

+6.5

3.50

Point Line

156.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 20

A

Aris

W

77

71

9

8

W 1

76

73

Mar 13

H

AEK Athens

L

85

87

8

8

L 1

90

81

Mar 6

H

Promitheas Patras

W

81

78

8

7

W 2

81

83

Feb 28

A

Larisa

W

91

88

7

7

W 1

88

91

Jan 30

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

77

84

6

7

L 2

79

80

Jan 27

A

AEK Athens

L

56

76

6

6

L 1

60

71

Jan 23

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

79

72

6

5

W 2

79

76

Jan 9

H

Messolonghi

W

96

87

5

5

W 1

91

92

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 14

A

Larisa

L

73

82

6

11

L 3

70

84

Mar 10

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

77

83

6

10

L 2

79

79

Mar 7

H

Panathinaikos

L

82

95

6

9

L 1

88

83

Feb 6

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

84

61

6

8

W 1

84

64

Jan 30

A

Messolonghi

L

77

87

5

8

L 1

73

92

Jan 23

H

Peristeri

W

80

65

5

7

W 2

82

69

Jan 9

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

94

74

4

7

W 1

88

73

Jan 2

A

AEK Athens

L

72

89

3

7

L 1

77

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kolossos Rhodes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kolossos Rhodes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by PAOK (in the first graph) and by Kolossos Rhodes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, PAOK will expected to score 78 points and the Kolossos Rhodes 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

PAOK

Kolossos Rhodes

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

14.70

18.30

DRB

22.60

25.10

AST-TO

1.05

1.29

TRB

30.50

31.40

FTM

15.10

13.30

BL

1.90

1.40

FTA

19.80

18.10

PF-Fewer

23.20

23.40

ST

7.40

6.10

TO-Fewer

14.00

14.20

Ftper

0.76

0.73

ORBper

0.35

0.25

ORB

7.90

6.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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