2021 03 27 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Dinamo Sassari vs Vanoli Cremona at 27 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Dinamo Sassari vs Vanoli Cremona at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dinamo Sassari and Vanoli Cremona for Serie A, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Dinamo Sassari

1.44

1.94

Vanoli Cremona

2.9

2.06

Dinamo Sassari HC

-5.5

-1.50

Vanoli Cremona HC

+5.5

1.50

Point Line

175.5

170.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Dinamo Sassari are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 6

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

74

89

14

6

L 1

70

89

Feb 27

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

96

88

14

5

W 8

102

88

Feb 6

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

89

79

13

5

W 7

89

82

Jan 24

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

103

82

12

5

W 6

106

82

Jan 17

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

99

74

11

5

W 5

100

73

Jan 10

H

Red October Cantu

W

98

92

10

5

W 4

97

94

Jan 3

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

85

78

9

5

W 3

86

84

Dec 27

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

100

87

8

5

W 2

97

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Vanoli Cremona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

H

Universo Treviso

L

85

86

8

14

L 2

78

83

Mar 14

A

Red October Cantu

L

85

92

8

13

L 1

84

94

Mar 7

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

100

78

8

12

W 2

100

77

Feb 28

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

95

87

7

12

W 1

98

91

Feb 7

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

105

110

6

12

L 5

100

110

Jan 30

H

Virtus Bologna

L

75

88

6

11

L 4

79

84

Jan 24

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

84

88

6

10

L 3

90

88

Jan 19

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

81

83

6

9

L 2

89

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Dinamo Sassari and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Vanoli Cremona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Vanoli Cremona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Dinamo Sassari.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Dinamo Sassari (in the first graph) and by Vanoli Cremona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Dinamo Sassari will expected to score 88 points and the Vanoli Cremona 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 174.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Dinamo Sassari

Vanoli Cremona

FG%

0.58

0.52

ASS

19.10

17.40

DRB

25.40

26.30

AST-TO

1.35

1.61

TRB

33.30

34.80

FTM

17.60

15.80

BL

2.00

2.50

FTA

22.90

20.90

PF-Fewer

18.40

20.00

ST

8.10

5.70

TO-Fewer

14.10

10.80

Ftper

0.77

0.75

ORBper

0.31

0.32

ORB

8.00

8.50


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