2021 03 27 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Unicaja Malaga vs San Pablo Burgos at 27 March 2021
Manresa vs Real Madrid at 27 March 2021
Gipuzkoa vs Obradoiro at 27 March 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Real Betis at 28 March 2021
Tenerife vs Valencia at 28 March 2021
Murcia vs Bilbao at 28 March 2021
Baskonia vs Gran Canaria at 28 March 2021
Barcelona vs Fuenlabrada at 28 March 2021
Estudiantes vs Andorra at 29 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Unicaja Malaga vs San Pablo Burgos at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and San Pablo Burgos for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unicaja Malaga

1.53

1.48

San Pablo Burgos

2.57

3.09

Unicaja Malaga HC

-3.5

-5.50

San Pablo Burgos HC

+3.5

5.50

Point Line

165.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 20

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

85

83

13

13

W 1

82

86

Mar 16

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

55

79

12

13

L 1

62

74

Mar 13

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

82

76

12

12

W 3

80

79

Feb 27

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

91

77

11

12

W 2

86

78

Feb 7

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

85

68

10

12

W 1

84

70

Jan 31

H

Valencia Basket

L

85

89

9

12

L 6

87

86

Jan 23

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

75

78

9

11

L 5

74

83

Jan 16

A

Manresa

L

83

90

9

10

L 4

80

89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 7

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

82

68

16

7

W 1

86

71

Feb 27

A

Real Madrid

L

81

96

15

7

L 1

88

91

Jan 31

A

Manresa

W

101

87

15

6

W 2

97

86

Jan 23

A

UCAM Murcia

W

81

75

14

6

W 1

80

76

Jan 17

H

Valencia Basket

L

78

83

13

6

L 1

80

80

Jan 9

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

85

76

13

5

W 5

83

81

Jan 3

H

Unicaja

W

95

83

12

5

W 4

95

81

Dec 29

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

96

86

11

5

W 3

91

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unicaja Malaga (in the first graph) and by San Pablo Burgos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unicaja Malaga will expected to score 83 points and the San Pablo Burgos 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Unicaja Malaga

San Pablo Burgos

FG%

0.55

0.51

ASS

16.70

15.00

DRB

23.10

22.20

AST-TO

1.18

1.02

TRB

33.00

32.40

FTM

14.40

15.70

BL

2.30

2.10

FTA

18.30

20.20

PF-Fewer

19.10

19.20

ST

6.00

6.90

TO-Fewer

14.10

14.70

Ftper

0.78

0.78

ORBper

0.43

0.46

ORB

9.90

10.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Manresa vs Real Madrid at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Manresa and Real Madrid for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Manresa

4.75

1.65

Real Madrid

1.21

2.53

Manresa HC

+8.5

-3.50

Real Madrid HC

-8.5

3.50

Point Line

163.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

86

92

12

14

L 1

90

96

Mar 14

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

90

76

12

13

W 1

89

78

Mar 7

A

Valencia Basket

L

82

112

11

13

L 1

84

108

Feb 27

H

UCAM Murcia

W

85

84

11

12

W 1

84

85

Feb 6

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

77

83

10

12

L 2

75

86

Jan 31

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

87

101

10

11

L 1

89

94

Jan 26

A

UCAM Murcia

W

103

93

10

10

W 1

101

95

Jan 24

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

70

85

9

10

L 1

73

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 23

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

87

71

25

1

W 11

84

73

Mar 21

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

95

77

24

1

W 10

93

82

Mar 14

A

Baskonia

W

85

74

23

1

W 9

91

73

Mar 7

A

UCAM Murcia

W

74

58

22

1

W 8

73

59

Feb 27

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

96

81

21

1

W 7

98

76

Feb 7

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

79

65

20

1

W 6

75

66

Feb 2

H

UCAM Murcia

W

98

87

19

1

W 5

96

88

Jan 31

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

81

80

18

1

W 4

79

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Manresa (in the first graph) and by Real Madrid in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Manresa will expected to score 79 points and the Real Madrid 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Manresa

Real Madrid

FG%

0.56

0.48

ASS

16.10

14.20

DRB

21.80

21.10

AST-TO

1.13

1.21

TRB

30.10

29.90

FTM

16.80

10.70

BL

3.30

1.80

FTA

22.40

13.50

PF-Fewer

21.00

19.80

ST

9.00

7.00

TO-Fewer

14.30

11.70

Ftper

0.75

0.79

ORBper

0.38

0.42

ORB

8.30

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gipuzkoa vs Obradoiro at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gipuzkoa and Obradoiro for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gipuzkoa

1.98

3.64

Obradoiro

1.87

1.38

Gipuzkoa HC

+1.5

6.50

Obradoiro HC

-1.5

-6.50

Point Line

160.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

81

90

6

19

L 1

79

94

Mar 14

H

Valencia Basket

W

78

60

6

18

W 1

80

58

Mar 6

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

74

78

5

18

L 2

73

80

Feb 27

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

74

97

5

17

L 1

70

101

Feb 10

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

81

79

5

16

W 1

77

80

Jan 24

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

68

110

4

16

L 1

76

103

Jan 16

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

94

90

4

15

W 2

92

87

Jan 10

H

Iberostar Tenerife

W

89

87

3

15

W 1

92

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Obradoiro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 23

H

Real Madrid

L

71

87

7

18

L 8

77

82

Mar 20

H

Unicaja

L

83

85

7

17

L 7

83

83

Mar 13

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

84

91

7

16

L 6

82

88

Mar 7

H

Baskonia

L

78

87

7

15

L 5

83

86

Mar 3

H

Movistar Estudiantes

L

87

91

7

14

L 4

83

92

Feb 28

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

71

97

7

13

L 3

74

90

Feb 9

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

71

90

7

12

L 2

75

94

Feb 6

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

70

83

7

11

L 1

64

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Obradoiro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Obradoiro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gipuzkoa (in the first graph) and by Obradoiro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gipuzkoa will expected to score 79 points and the Obradoiro 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gipuzkoa

Obradoiro

FG%

0.48

0.54

ASS

14.00

15.30

DRB

20.30

20.60

AST-TO

1.01

1.11

TRB

30.00

29.10

FTM

10.30

13.50

BL

1.90

2.30

FTA

14.60

17.30

PF-Fewer

20.10

19.20

ST

8.30

5.80

TO-Fewer

13.80

13.80

Ftper

0.71

0.78

ORBper

0.48

0.42

ORB

9.70

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Joventut Badalona vs Real Betis at 28 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Real Betis for Liga ACB, which will take place on 28 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Joventut Badalona

1.25

2.21

Real Betis

4.15

1.83

Joventut Badalona HC

-8.5

2.00

Real Betis HC

+8.5

-2.00

Point Line

167.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 17

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

90

83

15

10

W 3

86

84

Mar 13

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

91

84

14

10

W 2

88

87

Mar 6

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

100

95

13

10

W 1

91

95

Feb 28

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

62

80

12

10

L 1

70

75

Feb 7

A

UCAM Murcia

W

91

84

12

9

W 2

90

85

Jan 30

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

80

75

11

9

W 1

79

77

Jan 16

H

Acunsa GBC

L

90

94

10

9

L 4

86

103

Jan 10

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

85

96

10

8

L 3

83

100

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

A

Real Madrid

L

77

95

6

19

L 1

84

90

Mar 14

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

69

61

6

18

W 1

72

64

Mar 7

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

84

86

5

18

L 3

79

89

Feb 28

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

82

85

5

17

L 2

75

85

Feb 6

A

Valencia Basket

L

81

89

5

16

L 1

83

86

Jan 23

H

Unicaja

W

78

75

5

15

W 1

78

73

Jan 17

A

Baskonia

L

76

103

4

15

L 3

81

102

Jan 9

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

76

85

4

14

L 2

78

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Real Betis in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 84 points and the Real Betis 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Joventut Badalona

Real Betis

FG%

0.55

0.49

ASS

15.90

13.90

DRB

19.40

20.20

AST-TO

1.34

1.03

TRB

28.20

31.20

FTM

13.40

15.00

BL

2.60

2.50

FTA

17.00

20.40

PF-Fewer

21.00

20.50

ST

7.90

8.40

TO-Fewer

11.90

13.50

Ftper

0.79

0.74

ORBper

0.45

0.54

ORB

8.80

10.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Tenerife vs Valencia at 28 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Valencia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 28 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Tenerife

1.62

3.13

Valencia

2.35

1.47

Tenerife HC

-2.5

5.50

Valencia HC

+2.5

-5.50

Point Line

161.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 20

H

UCAM Murcia

W

85

78

19

5

W 2

84

79

Feb 28

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

97

71

18

5

W 1

93

73

Feb 7

H

Baskonia

L

79

81

17

5

L 1

84

80

Jan 30

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

89