BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Unicaja Malaga vs San Pablo Burgos at 27 March 2021
Manresa vs Real Madrid at 27 March 2021
Gipuzkoa vs Obradoiro at 27 March 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Real Betis at 28 March 2021
Tenerife vs Valencia at 28 March 2021
Murcia vs Bilbao at 28 March 2021
Baskonia vs Gran Canaria at 28 March 2021
Barcelona vs Fuenlabrada at 28 March 2021
Estudiantes vs Andorra at 29 March 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
Unicaja Malaga vs San Pablo Burgos at 27 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and San Pablo Burgos for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Unicaja Malaga |
1.53 |
1.48 |
|
San Pablo Burgos |
2.57 |
3.09 |
|
Unicaja Malaga HC |
-3.5 |
-5.50 |
|
San Pablo Burgos HC |
+3.5 |
5.50 |
|
Point Line |
165.5 |
163.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 20 |
A |
Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro |
W |
85 |
83 |
13 |
13 |
W 1 |
82 |
86 |
|
Mar 16 |
A |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
55 |
79 |
12 |
13 |
L 1 |
62 |
74 |
|
Mar 13 |
H |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
W |
82 |
76 |
12 |
12 |
W 3 |
80 |
79 |
|
Feb 27 |
H |
Movistar Estudiantes |
W |
91 |
77 |
11 |
12 |
W 2 |
86 |
78 |
|
Feb 7 |
A |
Montakit Fuenlabrada |
W |
85 |
68 |
10 |
12 |
W 1 |
84 |
70 |
|
Jan 31 |
H |
Valencia Basket |
L |
85 |
89 |
9 |
12 |
L 6 |
87 |
86 |
|
Jan 23 |
A |
Coosur Real Betis |
L |
75 |
78 |
9 |
11 |
L 5 |
74 |
83 |
|
Jan 16 |
A |
Manresa |
L |
83 |
90 |
9 |
10 |
L 4 |
80 |
89 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 7 |
H |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
82 |
68 |
16 |
7 |
W 1 |
86 |
71 |
|
Feb 27 |
A |
Real Madrid |
L |
81 |
96 |
15 |
7 |
L 1 |
88 |
91 |
|
Jan 31 |
A |
Manresa |
W |
101 |
87 |
15 |
6 |
W 2 |
97 |
86 |
|
Jan 23 |
A |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
81 |
75 |
14 |
6 |
W 1 |
80 |
76 |
|
Jan 17 |
H |
Valencia Basket |
L |
78 |
83 |
13 |
6 |
L 1 |
80 |
80 |
|
Jan 9 |
A |
Coosur Real Betis |
W |
85 |
76 |
13 |
5 |
W 5 |
83 |
81 |
|
Jan 3 |
H |
Unicaja |
W |
95 |
83 |
12 |
5 |
W 4 |
95 |
81 |
|
Dec 29 |
H |
RETAbet Bilbao Basket |
W |
96 |
86 |
11 |
5 |
W 3 |
91 |
89 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unicaja Malaga (in the first graph) and by San Pablo Burgos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unicaja Malaga will expected to score 83 points and the San Pablo Burgos 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Unicaja Malaga |
San Pablo Burgos |
|
FG% |
0.55 |
0.51 |
|
ASS |
16.70 |
15.00 |
|
DRB |
23.10 |
22.20 |
|
AST-TO |
1.18 |
1.02 |
|
TRB |
33.00 |
32.40 |
|
FTM |
14.40 |
15.70 |
|
BL |
2.30 |
2.10 |
|
FTA |
18.30 |
20.20 |
|
PF-Fewer |
19.10 |
19.20 |
|
ST |
6.00 |
6.90 |
|
TO-Fewer |
14.10 |
14.70 |
|
Ftper |
0.78 |
0.78 |
|
ORBper |
0.43 |
0.46 |
|
ORB |
9.90 |
10.20 |
Go to Top
Manresa vs Real Madrid at 27 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Manresa and Real Madrid for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Manresa |
4.75 |
1.65 |
|
Real Madrid |
1.21 |
2.53 |
|
Manresa HC |
+8.5 |
-3.50 |
|
Real Madrid HC |
-8.5 |
3.50 |
|
Point Line |
163.5 |
161.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 21 |
A |
MoraBanc Andorra |
L |
86 |
92 |
12 |
14 |
L 1 |
90 |
96 |
|
Mar 14 |
H |
Montakit Fuenlabrada |
W |
90 |
76 |
12 |
13 |
W 1 |
89 |
78 |
|
Mar 7 |
A |
Valencia Basket |
L |
82 |
112 |
11 |
13 |
L 1 |
84 |
108 |
|
Feb 27 |
H |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
85 |
84 |
11 |
12 |
W 1 |
84 |
85 |
|
Feb 6 |
A |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
L |
77 |
83 |
10 |
12 |
L 2 |
75 |
86 |
|
Jan 31 |
H |
San Pablo Burgos |
L |
87 |
101 |
10 |
11 |
L 1 |
89 |
94 |
|
Jan 26 |
A |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
103 |
93 |
10 |
10 |
W 1 |
101 |
95 |
|
Jan 24 |
A |
Iberostar Tenerife |
L |
70 |
85 |
9 |
10 |
L 1 |
73 |
79 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 23 |
A |
Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro |
W |
87 |
71 |
25 |
1 |
W 11 |
84 |
73 |
|
Mar 21 |
H |
Coosur Real Betis |
W |
95 |
77 |
24 |
1 |
W 10 |
93 |
82 |
|
Mar 14 |
A |
Baskonia |
W |
85 |
74 |
23 |
1 |
W 9 |
91 |
73 |
|
Mar 7 |
A |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
74 |
58 |
22 |
1 |
W 8 |
73 |
59 |
|
Feb 27 |
H |
San Pablo Burgos |
W |
96 |
81 |
21 |
1 |
W 7 |
98 |
76 |
|
Feb 7 |
A |
Movistar Estudiantes |
W |
79 |
65 |
20 |
1 |
W 6 |
75 |
66 |
|
Feb 2 |
H |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
98 |
87 |
19 |
1 |
W 5 |
96 |
88 |
|
Jan 31 |
H |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
W |
81 |
80 |
18 |
1 |
W 4 |
79 |
83 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Manresa (in the first graph) and by Real Madrid in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Manresa will expected to score 79 points and the Real Madrid 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Manresa |
Real Madrid |
|
FG% |
0.56 |
0.48 |
|
ASS |
16.10 |
14.20 |
|
DRB |
21.80 |
21.10 |
|
AST-TO |
1.13 |
1.21 |
|
TRB |
30.10 |
29.90 |
|
FTM |
16.80 |
10.70 |
|
BL |
3.30 |
1.80 |
|
FTA |
22.40 |
13.50 |
|
PF-Fewer |
21.00 |
19.80 |
|
ST |
9.00 |
7.00 |
|
TO-Fewer |
14.30 |
11.70 |
|
Ftper |
0.75 |
0.79 |
|
ORBper |
0.38 |
0.42 |
|
ORB |
8.30 |
8.80 |
Go to Top
Gipuzkoa vs Obradoiro at 27 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Gipuzkoa and Obradoiro for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Gipuzkoa |
1.98 |
3.64 |
|
Obradoiro |
1.87 |
1.38 |
|
Gipuzkoa HC |
+1.5 |
6.50 |
|
Obradoiro HC |
-1.5 |
-6.50 |
|
Point Line |
160.5 |
160.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 21 |
A |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
L |
81 |
90 |
6 |
19 |
L 1 |
79 |
94 |
|
Mar 14 |
H |
Valencia Basket |
W |
78 |
60 |
6 |
18 |
W 1 |
80 |
58 |
|
Mar 6 |
A |
Montakit Fuenlabrada |
L |
74 |
78 |
5 |
18 |
L 2 |
73 |
80 |
|
Feb 27 |
H |
RETAbet Bilbao Basket |
L |
74 |
97 |
5 |
17 |
L 1 |
70 |
101 |
|
Feb 10 |
H |
Movistar Estudiantes |
W |
81 |
79 |
5 |
16 |
W 1 |
77 |
80 |
|
Jan 24 |
H |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
68 |
110 |
4 |
16 |
L 1 |
76 |
103 |
|
Jan 16 |
A |
Divina Seguros Joventut |
W |
94 |
90 |
4 |
15 |
W 2 |
92 |
87 |
|
Jan 10 |
H |
Iberostar Tenerife |
W |
89 |
87 |
3 |
15 |
W 1 |
92 |
81 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Obradoiro are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 23 |
H |
Real Madrid |
L |
71 |
87 |
7 |
18 |
L 8 |
77 |
82 |
|
Mar 20 |
H |
Unicaja |
L |
83 |
85 |
7 |
17 |
L 7 |
83 |
83 |
|
Mar 13 |
A |
Divina Seguros Joventut |
L |
84 |
91 |
7 |
16 |
L 6 |
82 |
88 |
|
Mar 7 |
H |
Baskonia |
L |
78 |
87 |
7 |
15 |
L 5 |
83 |
86 |
|
Mar 3 |
H |
Movistar Estudiantes |
L |
87 |
91 |
7 |
14 |
L 4 |
83 |
92 |
|
Feb 28 |
H |
Iberostar Tenerife |
L |
71 |
97 |
7 |
13 |
L 3 |
74 |
90 |
|
Feb 9 |
A |
MoraBanc Andorra |
L |
71 |
90 |
7 |
12 |
L 2 |
75 |
94 |
|
Feb 6 |
A |
Tecnyconta Zaragoza |
L |
70 |
83 |
7 |
11 |
L 1 |
64 |
83 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Obradoiro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Obradoiro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gipuzkoa (in the first graph) and by Obradoiro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gipuzkoa will expected to score 79 points and the Obradoiro 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Gipuzkoa |
Obradoiro |
|
FG% |
0.48 |
0.54 |
|
ASS |
14.00 |
15.30 |
|
DRB |
20.30 |
20.60 |
|
AST-TO |
1.01 |
1.11 |
|
TRB |
30.00 |
29.10 |
|
FTM |
10.30 |
13.50 |
|
BL |
1.90 |
2.30 |
|
FTA |
14.60 |
17.30 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.10 |
19.20 |
|
ST |
8.30 |
5.80 |
|
TO-Fewer |
13.80 |
13.80 |
|
Ftper |
0.71 |
0.78 |
|
ORBper |
0.48 |
0.42 |
|
ORB |
9.70 |
8.60 |
Go to Top
Joventut Badalona vs Real Betis at 28 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Real Betis for Liga ACB, which will take place on 28 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Joventut Badalona |
1.25 |
2.21 |
|
Real Betis |
4.15 |
1.83 |
|
Joventut Badalona HC |
-8.5 |
2.00 |
|
Real Betis HC |
+8.5 |
-2.00 |
|
Point Line |
167.5 |
162.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 17 |
A |
Movistar Estudiantes |
W |
90 |
83 |
15 |
10 |
W 3 |
86 |
84 |
|
Mar 13 |
H |
Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro |
W |
91 |
84 |
14 |
10 |
W 2 |
88 |
87 |
|
Mar 6 |
A |
Tecnyconta Zaragoza |
W |
100 |
95 |
13 |
10 |
W 1 |
91 |
95 |
|
Feb 28 |
H |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
62 |
80 |
12 |
10 |
L 1 |
70 |
75 |
|
Feb 7 |
A |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
91 |
84 |
12 |
9 |
W 2 |
90 |
85 |
|
Jan 30 |
H |
Montakit Fuenlabrada |
W |
80 |
75 |
11 |
9 |
W 1 |
79 |
77 |
|
Jan 16 |
H |
Acunsa GBC |
L |
90 |
94 |
10 |
9 |
L 4 |
86 |
103 |
|
Jan 10 |
A |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
L |
85 |
96 |
10 |
8 |
L 3 |
83 |
100 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 21 |
A |
Real Madrid |
L |
77 |
95 |
6 |
19 |
L 1 |
84 |
90 |
|
Mar 14 |
H |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
69 |
61 |
6 |
18 |
W 1 |
72 |
64 |
|
Mar 7 |
A |
RETAbet Bilbao Basket |
L |
84 |
86 |
5 |
18 |
L 3 |
79 |
89 |
|
Feb 28 |
H |
Tecnyconta Zaragoza |
L |
82 |
85 |
5 |
17 |
L 2 |
75 |
85 |
|
Feb 6 |
A |
Valencia Basket |
L |
81 |
89 |
5 |
16 |
L 1 |
83 |
86 |
|
Jan 23 |
H |
Unicaja |
W |
78 |
75 |
5 |
15 |
W 1 |
78 |
73 |
|
Jan 17 |
A |
Baskonia |
L |
76 |
103 |
4 |
15 |
L 3 |
81 |
102 |
|
Jan 9 |
H |
San Pablo Burgos |
L |
76 |
85 |
4 |
14 |
L 2 |
78 |
79 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Real Betis in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 84 points and the Real Betis 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Joventut Badalona |
Real Betis |
|
FG% |
0.55 |
0.49 |
|
ASS |
15.90 |
13.90 |
|
DRB |
19.40 |
20.20 |
|
AST-TO |
1.34 |
1.03 |
|
TRB |
28.20 |
31.20 |
|
FTM |
13.40 |
15.00 |
|
BL |
2.60 |
2.50 |
|
FTA |
17.00 |
20.40 |
|
PF-Fewer |
21.00 |
20.50 |
|
ST |
7.90 |
8.40 |
|
TO-Fewer |
11.90 |
13.50 |
|
Ftper |
0.79 |
0.74 |
|
ORBper |
0.45 |
0.54 |
|
ORB |
8.80 |
10.90 |
Go to Top
Tenerife vs Valencia at 28 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Valencia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 28 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Tenerife |
1.62 |
3.13 |
|
Valencia |
2.35 |
1.47 |
|
Tenerife HC |
-2.5 |
5.50 |
|
Valencia HC |
+2.5 |
-5.50 |
|
Point Line |
161.5 |
166.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 20 |
H |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
85 |
78 |
19 |
5 |
W 2 |
84 |
79 |
|
Feb 28 |
A |
Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro |
W |
97 |
71 |
18 |
5 |
W 1 |
93 |
73 |
|
Feb 7 |
H |
Baskonia |
L |
79 |
81 |
17 |
5 |
L 1 |
84 |
80 |
|
Jan 30 |
A |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
89 |