2021 03 27 Turkey Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bahcesehir Koleji vs OGM Ormanspor at 27 March 2021
Efes vs Petkim Spor at 27 March 2021
Karsiyaka vs Bursaspor at 27 March 2021
Tofas vs Gaziantep at 27 March 2021
Afyon Belediye vs Fenerbahce at 28 March 2021
Turk Telekom vs Besiktas at 28 March 2021
Buyukcekmece vs Galatasaray at 28 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Bahcesehir Koleji vs OGM Ormanspor at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bahcesehir Koleji and OGM Ormanspor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bahcesehir Koleji

1.23

1.58

OGM Ormanspor

4

2.73

Bahcesehir Koleji HC

-8.5

-4.50

OGM Ormanspor HC

+8.5

4.50

Point Line

164.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bahcesehir Koleji are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 20

A

Galatasaray

L

90

101

8

17

L 4

85

101

Mar 14

H

Fenerbahce

L

61

78

8

16

L 3

65

73

Mar 7

A

Bursaspor

L

64

67

8

15

L 2

63

70

Feb 27

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

83

96

8

14

L 1

90

92

Feb 9

A

Afyon

W

89

77

8

13

W 2

85

76

Feb 6

H

Buyukcekmece

W

83

74

7

13

W 1

79

75

Jan 31

H

Anadolu Efes

L

76

100

6

13

L 4

82

90

Jan 23

A

Turk Telekom

L

88

101

6

12

L 3

87

108

The latest results and the adjusted scores of OGM Ormanspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 20

H

Turk Telekom

L

90

97

6

19

L 2

89

103

Mar 13

A

Darussafaka

L

68

90

6

18

L 1

70

89

Mar 6

H

Tofas

W

77

76

6

17

W 1

76

71

Feb 27

A

Socar Spor

L

76

83

5

17

L 7

76

84

Feb 11

H

Gaziantep

L

81

82

5

16

L 6

88

88

Feb 7

A

Fethiye

L

89

98

5

15

L 5

82

104

Feb 1

H

Besiktas

L

68

92

5

14

L 4

68

88

Jan 23

A

Anadolu Efes

L

75

95

5

13

L 3

81

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by OGM Ormanspor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by OGM Ormanspor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bahcesehir Koleji.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji (in the first graph) and by OGM Ormanspor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bahcesehir Koleji will expected to score 84 points and the OGM Ormanspor 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bahcesehir Koleji

OGM Ormanspor

FG%

0.52

0.52

ASS

17.50

18.00

DRB

22.80

20.20

AST-TO

1.45

1.57

TRB

32.50

27.50

FTM

14.50

14.40

BL

2.30

2.50

FTA

19.60

19.40

PF-Fewer

20.80

16.60

ST

5.90

4.60

TO-Fewer

12.10

11.50

Ftper

0.74

0.74

ORBper

0.42

0.36

ORB

9.60

7.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Efes vs Petkim Spor at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Efes and Petkim Spor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Efes

1.05

1.15

Petkim Spor

9.25

7.55

Efes HC

-17.5

-10.00

Petkim Spor HC

+17.5

10.00

Point Line

164.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

98

89

24

1

W 2

106

85

Mar 14

H

Gaziantep

W

102

63

23

1

W 1

111

67

Mar 7

A

Afyon

L

85

103

22

1

L 1

81

102

Feb 28

H

Fethiye

W

101

85

22

0

W 21

94

90

Feb 9

A

Buyukcekmece

W

94

83

21

0

W 20

89

84

Feb 7

H

Besiktas

W

84

80

20

0

W 19

84

77

Jan 31

A

Bahcesehir

W

100

76

19

0

W 18

99

77

Jan 23

H

Ormanspor

W

95

75

18

0

W 17

87

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Petkim Spor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

A

Gaziantep

L

64

76

9

16

L 3

69

81

Mar 13

H

Fethiye

L

69

79

9

15

L 2

64

84

Mar 6

A

Besiktas

L

94

96

9

14

L 1

94

92

Feb 27

H

Ormanspor

W

83

76

9

13

W 2

76

81

Feb 10

A

Galatasaray

W

89

65

8

13

W 1

84

65

Feb 7

H

Fenerbahce

L

67

80

7

13

L 1

72

75

Feb 3

H

Darussafaka

W

78

70

7

12

W 1

80

69

Jan 30

A

Bursaspor

L

89

95

6

12

L 4

87

99

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Petkim Spor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Petkim Spor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Efes (in the first graph) and by Petkim Spor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Efes will expected to score 85 points and the Petkim Spor 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Efes

Petkim Spor

FG%

0.58

0.55

ASS

22.40

20.20

DRB

24.00

21.80

AST-TO

2.41

1.68

TRB

33.40

31.00

FTM

12.60

12.20

BL

3.40

2.10

FTA

16.80

17.00

PF-Fewer

16.00

21.50

ST

7.40

5.70

TO-Fewer

9.30

12.00

Ftper

0.75

0.72

ORBper

0.39

0.43

ORB

9.40

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Karsiyaka vs Bursaspor at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Karsiyaka and Bursaspor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Karsiyaka

1.16

1.43

Bursaspor

5

3.34

Karsiyaka HC

-10.5

-6.00

Bursaspor HC

+10.5

6.00

Point Line

158.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

H

Anadolu Efes

L

89

98

20

5

L 1

96

88

Mar 13

A

Afyon

W

75

69

20

4

W 4

72

68

Mar 6

H

Buyukcekmece

W

117

82

19

4

W 3

111

83

Feb 27

A

Bahcesehir

W

96

83

18

4

W 2

95

84

Feb 9

H

Turk Telekom

W

80

69

17

4

W 1

79

73

Feb 6

A

Darussafaka

L

77

86

16

4

L 1

80

85

Jan 31

H

Tofas

W

90

71

16

3

W 11

89

66

Jan 24

A

Socar Spor

W

85

75

15

3

W 10

85

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bursaspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

H

Afyon

W

81

75

10

15

W 3

78

74

Mar 14

A

Buyukcekmece

W

73

68

9

15

W 2

69

69

Mar 7

H

Bahcesehir

W

67

64

8

15

W 1

66

65

Feb 27

A

Turk Telekom

L

82

83

7

15

L 3

81

88

Feb 10

H

Darussafaka

L

68

70

7

14

L 2

70

69

Feb 7

A

Tofas

L

77

84

7

13

L 1

76

78

Jan 30

H

Socar Spor

W

95

89

7

12

W 1

95

90

Jan 24

A

Gaziantep

L

70

77

6

12

L 2

76

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bursaspor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bursaspor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Karsiyaka (in the first graph) and by Bursaspor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Karsiyaka will expected to score 84 points and the Bursaspor 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Karsiyaka

Bursaspor

FG%

0.56

0.53

ASS

19.50

18.90

DRB

24.20

20.80

AST-TO

1.65

1.66

TRB

33.60

28.60

FTM

17.50

12.40

BL

1.80

2.50

FTA

23.90

16.80

PF-Fewer

19.00

21.50

ST

6.20

6.20

TO-Fewer

11.80

11.40

Ftper

0.73

0.74

ORBper

0.39

0.38

ORB

9.50

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Tofas vs Gaziantep at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tofas and Gaziantep for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Tofas

1.39

1.90

Gaziantep

2.95

2.11

Tofas HC

-6.5

-1.50

Gaziantep HC

+6.5

1.50

Point Line

156.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 20

A

Fethiye

W

101

76

15

10

W 2

94

81

Mar 13

H

Besiktas

W

89

86

14

10

W 1

89

83

Mar 6

A

Ormanspor

L

76

77

13

10

L 1

70

82

Feb 27

H

Galatasaray

W

98

89

13

9

W 3

93

89

Feb 10

A

Fenerbahce

W

84

81

12

9

W 2

90

76

Feb 7

H

Bursaspor

W

84

77

11

9

W 1

82

80

Jan 31

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

71

90

10

9

L 1

77

86

Jan 27

H

Socar Spor

W

88

80

10

8

W 1

88

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gaziantep are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

H

Socar Spor

W

76

64

13

12

W 1

76

64

Mar 14

A

Anadolu Efes

L

63

102

12

12

L 1

68

92

Mar 7

A

Fethiye

W

90

60

12

11

W 1

83

64

Feb 28

H

Besiktas

L

77

84

11

11

L 1

77

81

Feb 11

A

Ormanspor

W

82

81

11

10

W 4

75

87

Feb 6

H

Galatasaray

W

68

61

10

10

W 3

64

61

Jan 31

A

Fenerbahce

W

102

97

9

10

W 2

109

91

Jan 24

H

Bursaspor

W

77

70

8

10

W 1

76

73

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gaziantep.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gaziantep and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tofas (in the first graph) and by Gaziantep in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tofas will expected to score 80 points and the Gaziantep 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Tofas

Gaziantep

FG%

0.56

0.52

ASS

21.50

20.40

DRB

21.80

23.90

AST-TO

1.84

1.81

TRB

30.40

33.50

FTM

12.70

12.00

BL

2.80

2.60

FTA

16.60

17.60

PF-Fewer

20.80

20.50

ST

8.30

6.70

TO-Fewer

11.70

11.30

Ftper

0.76

0.68

ORBper

0.39

0.40

ORB

8.60

9.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Afyon Belediye vs Fenerbahce at 28 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Afyon Belediye and Fenerbahce for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 28 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Afyon Belediye

5.4

3.07

Fenerbahce

1.14

1.48

Afyon Belediye HC

+11.5

5.50

Fenerbahce HC

-11.5

-5.50

Point Line

161.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Afyon Belediye are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

A

Bursaspor

L

75

81

12

13

L 2

74

84

Mar 13

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

69

75

12

12

L 1

75

72

Mar 7

H

Anadolu Efes

W

103

85

12

11

W 1

112

76

Feb 28

A

Buyukcekmece

L

83

95

11

11

L 3

79

96

Feb 9