BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
CSKA Moscow vs Unics at 27 March 2021
BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 28 March 2021
Khimki vs Tsmoki Minsk at 28 March 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
CSKA Moscow vs Unics at 27 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between CSKA Moscow and Unics for VTB United League, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
CSKA Moscow |
1.21 |
1.07 |
|
Unics |
4.3 |
14.73 |
|
CSKA Moscow HC |
-9.5 |
-11.50 |
|
Unics HC |
+9.5 |
11.50 |
|
Point Line |
166.5 |
160.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 22 |
A |
Kalev/Cramo |
W |
94 |
72 |
14 |
5 |
W 3 |
90 |
77 |
|
Mar 15 |
H |
BC Khimki |
W |
92 |
73 |
13 |
5 |
W 2 |
90 |
70 |
|
Mar 7 |
H |
Tsmoki Minsk |
W |
101 |
67 |
12 |
5 |
W 1 |
96 |
75 |
|
Feb 13 |
H |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
L |
71 |
74 |
11 |
5 |
L 1 |
80 |
71 |
|
Feb 10 |
A |
Enisey |
W |
91 |
80 |
11 |
4 |
W 1 |
85 |
86 |
|
Feb 7 |
H |
Kalev/Cramo |
L |
102 |
107 |
10 |
4 |
L 2 |
98 |
114 |
|
Feb 1 |
A |
Zielona Gora |
L |
90 |
93 |
10 |
3 |
L 1 |
85 |
87 |
|
Jan 18 |
A |
Avtodor |
W |
98 |
82 |
10 |
2 |
W 6 |
93 |
81 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 13 |
A |
Kalev/Cramo |
W |
76 |
49 |
15 |
4 |
W 10 |
73 |
52 |
|
Feb 27 |
H |
Nizhny Novgorod |
W |
87 |
56 |
14 |
4 |
W 9 |
89 |
58 |
|
Feb 10 |
H |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
W |
59 |
58 |
13 |
4 |
W 8 |
67 |
56 |
|
Feb 7 |
A |
Avtodor |
W |
110 |
97 |
12 |
4 |
W 7 |
104 |
96 |
|
Jan 30 |
A |
Tsmoki Minsk |
W |
76 |
66 |
11 |
4 |
W 6 |
72 |
74 |
|
Jan 23 |
A |
Nizhny Novgorod |
W |
91 |
66 |
10 |
4 |
W 5 |
93 |
68 |
|
Jan 17 |
A |
BC Khimki |
W |
93 |
87 |
9 |
4 |
W 4 |
91 |
83 |
|
Jan 9 |
A |
Parma |
W |
76 |
69 |
8 |
4 |
W 3 |
77 |
71 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by CSKA Moscow (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, CSKA Moscow will expected to score 82 points and the Unics 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
CSKA Moscow |
Unics |
|
FG% |
0.58 |
0.55 |
|
ASS |
19.80 |
15.90 |
|
DRB |
22.60 |
21.10 |
|
AST-TO |
1.77 |
1.36 |
|
TRB |
33.10 |
30.40 |
|
FTM |
19.90 |
13.90 |
|
BL |
3.50 |
1.70 |
|
FTA |
25.20 |
18.20 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.30 |
21.80 |
|
ST |
6.60 |
8.30 |
|
TO-Fewer |
11.20 |
11.70 |
|
Ftper |
0.79 |
0.76 |
|
ORBper |
0.46 |
0.44 |
|
ORB |
10.40 |
9.30 |
Go to Top
BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 28 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn and Lokomotiv Kuban for VTB United League, which will take place on 28 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn |
3.9 |
5.00 |
|
Lokomotiv Kuban |
1.25 |
1.25 |
|
BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn HC |
+8.5 |
8.50 |
|
Lokomotiv Kuban HC |
-8.5 |
-8.50 |
|
Point Line |
163.5 |
165.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 22 |
H |
CSKA Moscow |
L |
72 |
94 |
6 |
13 |
L 1 |
78 |
82 |
|
Mar 16 |
A |
Zielona Gora |
W |
95 |
88 |
6 |
12 |
W 1 |
90 |
83 |
|
Mar 13 |
H |
UNICS |
L |
49 |
76 |
5 |
12 |
L 1 |
54 |
76 |
|
Mar 7 |
H |
Avtodor |
W |
85 |
77 |
5 |
11 |
W 2 |
81 |
76 |
|
Mar 1 |
A |
Astana |
W |
77 |
61 |
4 |
11 |
W 1 |
73 |
66 |
|
Feb 12 |
H |
Parma |
L |
72 |
85 |
3 |
11 |
L 2 |
73 |
88 |
|
Feb 9 |
A |
Parma |
L |
72 |
80 |
3 |
10 |
L 1 |
73 |
82 |
|
Feb 7 |
A |
CSKA Moscow |
W |
107 |
102 |
3 |
9 |
W 1 |
116 |
88 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 18 |
H |
Parma |
W |
85 |
68 |
12 |
6 |
W 4 |
86 |
70 |
|
Mar 13 |
H |
Avtodor |
W |
104 |
89 |
11 |
6 |
W 3 |
99 |
88 |
|
Feb 27 |
H |
Enisey |
W |
100 |
98 |
10 |
6 |
W 2 |
94 |
105 |
|
Feb 8 |
A |
BC Khimki |
W |
92 |
90 |
9 |
6 |
W 1 |
90 |
86 |
|
Jan 31 |
A |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
L |
85 |
90 |
8 |
6 |
L 1 |
96 |
87 |
|
Jan 16 |
A |
Nizhny Novgorod |
W |
94 |
73 |
8 |
5 |
W 1 |
96 |
75 |
|
Jan 9 |
A |
Astana |
L |
82 |
86 |
7 |
5 |
L 2 |
78 |
92 |
|
Jan 3 |
H |
BC Khimki |
L |
91 |
102 |
7 |
4 |
L 1 |
89 |
97 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn (in the first graph) and by Lokomotiv Kuban in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn will expected to score 80 points and the Lokomotiv Kuban 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
|
FG% |
0.53 |
0.55 |
|
ASS |
16.60 |
21.40 |
|
DRB |
22.60 |
25.80 |
|
AST-TO |
1.18 |
1.71 |
|
TRB |
31.00 |
34.30 |
|
FTM |
11.60 |
17.40 |
|
BL |
2.10 |
3.60 |
|
FTA |
16.30 |
22.80 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.40 |
20.70 |
|
ST |
6.30 |
5.90 |
|
TO-Fewer |
14.10 |
12.50 |
|
Ftper |
0.71 |
0.77 |
|
ORBper |
0.37 |
0.33 |
|
ORB |
8.40 |
8.50 |
Go to Top
Khimki vs Tsmoki Minsk at 28 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Khimki and Tsmoki Minsk for VTB United League, which will take place on 28 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Khimki |
1.11 |
1.15 |
|
Tsmoki Minsk |
6.4 |
7.56 |
|
Khimki HC |
-14.5 |
-10.00 |
|
Tsmoki Minsk HC |
+14.5 |
10.00 |
|
Point Line |
162.5 |
161.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 22 |
A |
Zielona Gora |
W |
89 |
70 |
9 |
9 |
W 1 |
84 |
66 |
|
Mar 15 |
A |
CSKA Moscow |
L |
73 |
92 |
8 |
9 |
L 1 |
79 |
80 |
|
Mar 8 |
A |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
W |
81 |
78 |
8 |
8 |
W 1 |
91 |
75 |
|
Feb 28 |
H |
Zielona Gora |
L |
94 |
99 |
7 |
8 |
L 1 |
89 |
93 |
|
Feb 12 |
A |
Astana |
W |
82 |
77 |
7 |
7 |
W 1 |
78 |
83 |
|
Feb 8 |
H |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
L |
90 |
92 |
6 |
7 |
L 1 |
88 |
83 |
|
Feb 1 |
A |
Parma |
W |
72 |
69 |
6 |
6 |
W 1 |
73 |
71 |
|
Jan 17 |
H |
UNICS |
L |
87 |
93 |
5 |
6 |
L 1 |
97 |
93 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tsmoki Minsk are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 21 |
H |
Astana |
L |
78 |
80 |
2 |
16 |
L 8 |
74 |
86 |
|
Mar 14 |
A |
Nizhny Novgorod |
L |
57 |
78 |
2 |
15 |
L 7 |
58 |
80 |
|
Mar 7 |
A |
CSKA Moscow |
L |
67 |
101 |
2 |
14 |
L 6 |
73 |
88 |
|
Feb 28 |
A |
Avtodor |
L |
66 |
113 |
2 |
13 |
L 5 |
63 |
112 |
|
Feb 7 |
H |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
L |
73 |
99 |
2 |
12 |
L 4 |
82 |
95 |
|
Jan 30 |
H |
UNICS |
L |
66 |
76 |
2 |
11 |
L 3 |
73 |
76 |
|
Jan 24 |
H |
Kalev/Cramo |
L |
72 |
80 |
2 |
10 |
L 2 |
69 |
85 |
|
Jan 17 |
H |
Zielona Gora |
L |
75 |
80 |
2 |
9 |
L 1 |
71 |
75 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tsmoki Minsk.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tsmoki Minsk and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Khimki (in the first graph) and by Tsmoki Minsk in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Khimki will expected to score 86 points and the Tsmoki Minsk 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Khimki |
Tsmoki Minsk |
|
FG% |
0.54 |
0.49 |
|
ASS |
20.10 |
14.90 |
|
DRB |
21.50 |
20.00 |
|
AST-TO |
1.75 |
1.01 |
|
TRB |
30.30 |
28.60 |
|
FTM |
16.90 |
11.10 |
|
BL |
3.20 |
1.50 |
|
FTA |
21.10 |
15.20 |
|
PF-Fewer |
22.40 |
22.20 |
|
ST |
6.70 |
6.10 |
|
TO-Fewer |
11.50 |
14.70 |
|
Ftper |
0.80 |
0.73 |
|
ORBper |
0.41 |
0.43 |
|
ORB |
8.80 |
8.60 |
Go to Top