2021 03 27 VTB United League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

CSKA Moscow vs Unics at 27 March 2021
BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 28 March 2021
Khimki vs Tsmoki Minsk at 28 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



CSKA Moscow vs Unics at 27 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between CSKA Moscow and Unics for VTB United League, which will take place on 27 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

CSKA Moscow

1.21

1.07

Unics

4.3

14.73

CSKA Moscow HC

-9.5

-11.50

Unics HC

+9.5

11.50

Point Line

166.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 22

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

94

72

14

5

W 3

90

77

Mar 15

H

BC Khimki

W

92

73

13

5

W 2

90

70

Mar 7

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

101

67

12

5

W 1

96

75

Feb 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

71

74

11

5

L 1

80

71

Feb 10

A

Enisey

W

91

80

11

4

W 1

85

86

Feb 7

H

Kalev/Cramo

L

102

107

10

4

L 2

98

114

Feb 1

A

Zielona Gora

L

90

93

10

3

L 1

85

87

Jan 18

A

Avtodor

W

98

82

10

2

W 6

93

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 13

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

76

49

15

4

W 10

73

52

Feb 27

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

87

56

14

4

W 9

89

58

Feb 10

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

59

58

13

4

W 8

67

56

Feb 7

A

Avtodor

W

110

97

12

4

W 7

104

96

Jan 30

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

76

66

11

4

W 6

72

74

Jan 23

A

Nizhny Novgorod

W

91

66

10

4

W 5

93

68

Jan 17

A

BC Khimki

W

93

87

9

4

W 4

91

83

Jan 9

A

Parma

W

76

69

8

4

W 3

77

71

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by CSKA Moscow (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, CSKA Moscow will expected to score 82 points and the Unics 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

CSKA Moscow

Unics

FG%

0.58

0.55

ASS

19.80

15.90

DRB

22.60

21.10

AST-TO

1.77

1.36

TRB

33.10

30.40

FTM

19.90

13.90

BL

3.50

1.70

FTA

25.20

18.20

PF-Fewer

20.30

21.80

ST

6.60

8.30

TO-Fewer

11.20

11.70

Ftper

0.79

0.76

ORBper

0.46

0.44

ORB

10.40

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 28 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn and Lokomotiv Kuban for VTB United League, which will take place on 28 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn

3.9

5.00

Lokomotiv Kuban

1.25

1.25

BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn HC

+8.5

8.50

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

-8.5

-8.50

Point Line

163.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 22

H

CSKA Moscow

L

72

94

6

13

L 1

78

82

Mar 16

A

Zielona Gora

W

95

88

6

12

W 1

90

83

Mar 13

H

UNICS

L

49

76

5

12

L 1

54

76

Mar 7

H

Avtodor

W

85

77

5

11

W 2

81

76

Mar 1

A

Astana

W

77

61

4

11

W 1

73

66

Feb 12

H

Parma

L

72

85

3

11

L 2

73

88

Feb 9

A

Parma

L

72

80

3

10

L 1

73

82

Feb 7

A

CSKA Moscow

W

107

102

3

9

W 1

116

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 18

H

Parma

W

85

68

12

6

W 4

86

70

Mar 13

H

Avtodor

W

104

89

11

6

W 3

99

88

Feb 27

H

Enisey

W

100

98

10

6

W 2

94

105

Feb 8

A

BC Khimki

W

92

90

9

6

W 1

90

86

Jan 31

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

85

90

8

6

L 1

96

87

Jan 16

A

Nizhny Novgorod

W

94

73

8

5

W 1

96

75

Jan 9

A

Astana

L

82

86

7

5

L 2

78

92

Jan 3

H

BC Khimki

L

91

102

7

4

L 1

89

97

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn (in the first graph) and by Lokomotiv Kuban in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn will expected to score 80 points and the Lokomotiv Kuban 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

BC Kalev/Cramo Tallinn

Lokomotiv Kuban

FG%

0.53

0.55

ASS

16.60

21.40

DRB

22.60

25.80

AST-TO

1.18

1.71

TRB

31.00

34.30

FTM

11.60

17.40

BL

2.10

3.60

FTA

16.30

22.80

PF-Fewer

20.40

20.70

ST

6.30

5.90

TO-Fewer

14.10

12.50

Ftper

0.71

0.77

ORBper

0.37

0.33

ORB

8.40

8.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Khimki vs Tsmoki Minsk at 28 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Khimki and Tsmoki Minsk for VTB United League, which will take place on 28 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Khimki

1.11

1.15

Tsmoki Minsk

6.4

7.56

Khimki HC

-14.5

-10.00

Tsmoki Minsk HC

+14.5

10.00

Point Line

162.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 22

A

Zielona Gora

W

89

70

9

9

W 1

84

66

Mar 15

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

92

8

9

L 1

79

80

Mar 8

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

81

78

8

8

W 1

91

75

Feb 28

H

Zielona Gora

L

94

99

7

8

L 1

89

93

Feb 12

A

Astana

W

82

77

7

7

W 1

78

83

Feb 8

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

90

92

6

7

L 1

88

83

Feb 1

A

Parma

W

72

69

6

6

W 1

73

71

Jan 17

H

UNICS

L

87

93

5

6

L 1

97

93

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tsmoki Minsk are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 21

H

Astana

L

78

80

2

16

L 8

74

86

Mar 14

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

57

78

2

15

L 7

58

80

Mar 7

A

CSKA Moscow

L

67

101

2

14

L 6

73

88

Feb 28

A

Avtodor

L

66

113

2

13

L 5

63

112

Feb 7

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

73

99

2

12

L 4

82

95

Jan 30

H

UNICS

L

66

76

2

11

L 3

73

76

Jan 24

H

Kalev/Cramo

L

72

80

2

10

L 2

69

85

Jan 17

H

Zielona Gora

L

75

80

2

9

L 1

71

75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tsmoki Minsk.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tsmoki Minsk and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Khimki (in the first graph) and by Tsmoki Minsk in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Khimki will expected to score 86 points and the Tsmoki Minsk 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Khimki

Tsmoki Minsk

FG%

0.54

0.49

ASS

20.10

14.90

DRB

21.50

20.00

AST-TO

1.75

1.01

TRB

30.30

28.60

FTM

16.90

11.10

BL

3.20

1.50

FTA

21.10

15.20

PF-Fewer

22.40

22.20

ST

6.70

6.10

TO-Fewer

11.50

14.70

Ftper

0.80

0.73

ORBper

0.41

0.43

ORB

8.80

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *